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Begin part 2 of 2
SUBSCRIBER QUESTIONS
Q: Why is money moving into gold and not rotating to other sectors?
A: There is some ongoing rotation as noted in the summary, but gold, the metal itself, has been performing well all its own. There are two main reasons working together as we see it. First is the recovering world economy. While uncertainty can lead to gold spikes, a stronger world economy where there is a threat of inflation pushes money into gold as a hedge. From what we see the cycle is much too early in recovery for this to be a significant part of the price rise.
More important we think is the falling dollar. If strong economies were the problem, then why did gold prices fallin the 1990's boom years? That period saw a very strong dollar. That kept gold expensive in terms of foreign currencies. With the dollar in a relatively long decline compared to the lofty heights in the late 1990's and early 2000's, gold has become less expensive in terms of foreign currencies. If there is some concern about the dollar, gold becomes all that more attractive. Thus the rising price in gold. It has spiked recently and will need to test that move. It will be interesting to see how it performs if the dollar continues to regain lost ground, but with the Bush administration letting the dollar slide, it will most likely resume that move. At some point the price rise in gold offsets the strengthening of foregin currencies via the weakening dollar, but then you have that other component, i.e., the haven for wealth given a falling dollar, that drives the price.
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Good movers Thursday: DJO; ECIL; PDYN; QADI; VAR
Continuing ready to move: JNPR; OPSW; TRPH
CONTINUING PLAY LIST: This week the summary table breaks out the upside and downside plays into different sections labeled accordingly.
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
^OEX 11/06 A Wedge 522.99 -1.2 523.15 545 231K 650K 518.55
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied on slightly higher volume. Still in the pattern.
ALGN 11/03 Test BO 16.87 -0.92 17.45 20.85 1.3M 616K 16.44
Current. Gapped down at the open and went down to test the 18 day MVA and rallied on strong volume surge. May be ready for next move up.
AMSWA 10/23 Test BO 6.71 +0.12 6.12 7.45 67K 150K 6.39
Current. Tested below the 10 day MVA and rallied showing a tight doji on below average volume. Moving up the 10 day MVA.
ANT 11/10 A Wedge 35.58 -0.02 35.58 42.45 159K 561K 33.82
Current. Gapped up at the open, but then gave it back on low volume.
BEV 11/12 Cup 7.55 +0.55 7.25 8.94 4.6M 1.7M 6.74
Current. Great move up on strong volume surge.
BRKS 10/29 Cup 26.47 -0.1 27 32.38 1.1M 1.4M 25.55
Current. Volatile with 27.23 at the high and 25.58 at the low (18 day MVA) showing a doji on above average volume. Still in the pattern.
BRLI 10/20 Cup hdl 17.84 -2.27 13.45 16.22 1.2M 212K 16.12
Current. More volatile session with 19.24 at the high and 17.01 at the low. Huge gap down at the open and moved further down. Still in good shape, but may test back further.
CASY 11/06 Rv H&S 16.4 +0.04 16.26 20 68K 200K 15.35
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 16.13 at the low and rallied as the stock moved up the 10 day MVA on low volume.
CATS 10/27 Test BO 7.47 +0.12 7.58 9.12 78K 145K 7.05
Buy Not Issued. Bounced off the 10 day MVA and rallied on below average volume. Moving up the 10 day MVA.
CKSW 10/25 Test BO 4.01 +0.11 3.61 4.58 722K 300K 3.22
Current. More volatile with 4.15 at the day's high and 3.75 at the low showing a tight doji on above average volume. Moving up the 10 day MVA.
CORI 10/27 Test BO 6.24 -0.09 6.25 7.85 970K 550K 6.08
Current. Gapped down to hold the 18 day MVA on above average volume. Needs to hold here.
CYMI 11/06 DB hdl 48.45 -0.02 49.39 59.22 1.4M 2M 46.48
Current. Tapped 49.70 at the high, but gave it back showing a doji on higher, but average volume. May be ready to move up further.
DCGN 09/20 Test BO 8.5 +0.14 4.32 5.38 779K 315K 6.99
Current. Volatile session with 8.86 at the high and 8.40 at the low showing a tight doji on average volume. Stock continues to move up the 10 day MVA.
DJO 09/11 Cup 25 +2 14 16.45 148K 100K 19.22
Current. Another great move on strong volume.
ECIL 10/02 Test BO 6.25 +0.31 4.3 5.22 572K 300K 5.22
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA for a nice move on stronger above average volume.
EGHT 10/30 Cup 3.42 -0.28 2.15 2.91 2.3M 823K 2.72
Current. Testing back, still holding well over the 10 day MVA.
EGOV 10/07 Test BO 6.97 -0.03 5.07 6.35 268K 264K 6.44
Current.
EGOV 09/20 Cup hdl 6.97 -0.03 4.8 5.68 268K 264K 6.44
Current. Pull back on very low volume. Still in uptrend and moving up the 10 day MVA.
EMBT 10/06 Flat 15.56 +0.42 11.24 13.38 609K 350K 13.12
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 15.56 +0.42 9.33 11.12 609K 400K 13.12
Current.
ENCY 11/09 Dbl btm 6.99 -0.06 7.48 9.35 417K 522K 6.96
Buy Not Issued. Making a lateral move on the 10 day MVA on higher, but still below average volume. Showing a tight doji which may indicate stock is ready to breakout.
EVCI 10/20 Cup hdl 4.38 -0.17 3.4 4.38 92K 125K 4.44
Current.
GBN 10/22 Cup 2.15 0 1.86 2.42 514K 300K 1.89
Current.
GEMS 10/22 Test BO 3.15 +0.02 2.87 3.72 244K 487K 3.08
Current. More volatile with 3.25 at the high and 3.07 at the low showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Making a lateral move on the 10 day MVA.
JNPR 11/01 A Wedge 18.46 -0.14 18.94 22.42 6.5M 15M 17.79
Current. Tapped 18.95 at the high, but gave it back showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Making lateral move on the 10 day MVA.
KEI 11/05 Cup hdl 17.77 +0.02 18.37 22.05 26K 150K 17.45
Current. Bounced off the 18 day MVA Wednesday and took a breather Thursday.
LM 05/06 Cup hdl 84.82 +0.27 58.5 67.78 260K 610K 82.92
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on very low volume.
MDS 11/09 Cup 13.99 -0.41 14.28 17.21 107K 120K 13.63
Current. Thudded down to give back yesterday's great move on much lower volume. Tapped 14.57 at the day's high, but gave it back. Still in uptrend.
MKSI 11/12 DB hdl 28.03 -0.14 29.14 34.98 329K 616K 27.05
Buy Not Hit.
MVSN 11/09 Cup hdl 22.54 -0.26 23.08 27.69 356K 891K 21.99
Buy Not Hit. Still working on the handle on below average volume.
NMGC 11/11 Cup 2.85 -0.1 2.91 3.78 238K 303K 2.68
Current. Gapped higher following the strong move and then reversed. Lower volume but don't like those immediate reversals.
NOOF 11/01 Cup hdl 7.01 +0.03 5.27 6.32 604K 319K 5.62
Current. Tapped 6.65 at the day's low and rallied showing a tight doji on much lower, but still above average volume. Still in the uptrend.
NOOF 10/25 Cup hdl 7.01 +0.03 4.78 6.21 604K 280K 5.62
Current.
NXTL 10/02 Cup hdl 24.2 +0.15 20.76 24.95 13M 27M 23.12
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on slightly higher, but below average volume.
NXTL 09/17 Cup hdl 24.2 +0.15 20.64 24.75 13M 24M 23.12
Current.
ONNN 10/28 Test 50 4.83 +0.12 4.65 5.88 1.4M 1.7M 4.42
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on slightly higher, but below average volume.
OPSW 10/28 A Wedge 8.89 +0.11 8.95 10.95 439K 1M 8.32
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
PDYN 09/29 DB hdl 4.68 +1 2.55 3.24 1.5M 450K 3.42
Current. Breakout for a big move on excellent volume surge.
PLXS 11/03 DB hdl 19.05 -0.4 19.06 22.75 316K 528K 18.23
Current.
PLXT 11/03 A Wedge 9.88 -0.04 8.81 10.96 49K 222K 8.94
Current. Pull back on very low volume. Making a lateral move above the 10 day MVA.
PUMA 10/27 A Wedge 6.93 -0.16 7.34 9.06 551K 1.4M 6.97
Current. Holding the 18 day MVA on low volume with a doji. This is where it needs to move.
QADI 11/12 Flat 13.7 +1.17 13.54 16.22 579K 298K 12.44
Current. Surged up in a strong early run. We used late pullback
to start a partial position and will look for more
when the next buy opportunity comes, most likely on
the next test.
QLGC 11/11 Test 18 57.02 -0.16 57.22 65.85 3.2M 5.5M 55.35
Buy Not Issued. Narrow trading range showing a tight doji on the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Making a lateral move on the 10 day MVA.
REMC 11/06 Dbl btm 12.7 -0.16 12.88 15.75 689K 800K 11.92
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied on stronger volume. Still in the pattern.
RETK 10/06 A Wedge 10.8 -0.12 8.49 10.25 384K 776K 10.37
Current. Working laterally over the 10 day MVA on low volume.
RWY 11/04 Cup hdl 6.53 +0.05 6.24 7.85 85K 146K 6.22
Current. More volatile sessionw tih 6.66 at the high and 6.36 at the low showing a doji as the stock moves up the 10 day MVA.
SCMR 11/04 A Wedge 5.15 +0.06 5.39 6.72 2.3M 3M 5.49
Current. Trying to bounce up off the 50 day MVA. Still letting it bounce if it will.
SCSS 11/11 Test 50 28.57 +0.13 29.22 35 339K 1M 28.96
Buy Not Hit. Tested the simple 50 day MVA and rallied showing a tight doji under the 18 day MVA on low volume. Still in the pattern.
SINA 10/24 Test 50 35.98 -0.86 41.55 50 5.5M 15M 39.42
Current. Pull back on much lower volume. Holding above support at 35.
SINA 09/09 Cup 35.98 -0.86 36.15 41 5.5M 12M 37.55
Current.
SINA 08/18 Test 50 35.98 -0.86 32.2 38.25 5.5M 10M 37.55
Current.
SOFO 10/02 Test BO 2.22 -0.08 2.05 2.74 263K 395K 2.28
Current. Tapped the 18 day MVA intraday, but gave it back to hold at support 2.20. Needs to hold here. Looking for a relief bounce.
SOHU 10/24 Dbl btm 32.09 -0.91 37.69 45 2.8M 9M 34.85
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA at the day's high, but could not hold the gain. Held support at 32 on below average volume. Looking for a relief bounce.
TARO 10/08 Cup hdl 65.07 -0.18 61.51 73 345K 501K 65.32
Current. Begin making a lateral move along the 18 day MVA on strong volume. Tapped 66.30 at the day's high, but gave it back. Needs to hold here.
TELM 09/30 Test BO 1.69 -0.06 1.51 2.04 3.4M 7M 1.61
Current. Gapped down to open on the 18 day MVA and rallied on below average volume. Tapped 1.74 intraday, but gave it back. Needs to hold here.
TLAB 11/10 DB hdl 8.4 +0.07 8.27 9.88 9.8M 6M 7.69
Current.
TRPH 11/01 A Wedge 5.44 -0.05 5.31 6.62 872K 1.8M 4.85
Current.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 41.24 -0.37 23.42 27.62 254K 603K 40.94
Current. Pull back to close on the 18 day MVA on below average volume. Forming a handle.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 41.24 -0.37 21.88 26 254K 603K 40.94
Current.
TVIA 11/04 Cup hdl 2.31 +0.03 2.38 3.09 38K 219K 2.18
Buy Not Issued. Moving up the 10 day MVA on very low volume.
TXN 10/23 Test BO 30.19 -0.51 27.65 33.18 11M 18M 29.48
Current. Tested below the 10 day MVA and rallied holding above the 10 day MVA on higher, but below average volume.
VAR 10/28 Cup hdl 66.97 +1.2 64.5 74.25 476K 1.1M 64.12
Current. Gapped up at the open and continued to rally up the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Broke a new high.
VLGC 11/10 Cup 1.88 +0.12 2.06 2.72 810K 1.3M 1.92
Buy Not Issued.
XLNX 11/12 DB hdl 34.57 -0.47 34.78 41 5.6M 11M 32.88
Current. More volatile sessionw with 34.50 at the high and 33.45 at the low showing a doji on below. Continues to move up the 10 day MVA.
XLNX 11/01 DB hdl 34.57 -0.47 32.68 38.68 5.6M 11M 32.88
Current.
XYBR 11/11 DB hdl 1.99 -0.16 2.42 3.15 16M 14M 2.22
Buy Not Issued. Thudded down to close below the 18 day MVA on stronger above average volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
ZMH 08/09 Test BO 64.1 -0.06 51.12 59.55 1.1M 3M 63.55
Current. Pull back on below average volume. Still in good shape.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ARDI 11/10 Put 12.73 +0.04 12.12 10.06 329K 1M 13.31
Buy Not Issued.
ASCA 11/01 Put 21.68 +0.11 20.27 18.85 179K 185K 21.25
Current. Looks as if it is going to roll back down from here.
SFNT 11/11 Put 34.44 +0.39 34.05 30.55 253K 461K 35.44
Buy Not Issued.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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