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stock picking, stock option
Begin part 2 of 3
Economic Calendar
11-17-03
Business inventories, September (8:30): 0.0% expected, -0.4% August.
NY Empire Index, November (8:30): 27.0 expected, 33.7 October.
11-18-03
CPI, October (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.3% September.
Core CPI: 0.2% expected, 0.1% September.
11-19-03
Housing starts, October, (8:30): 1.850M expected, 1.888M prior.
Building permits, October (8:30): 1.850M expected, 1.875M September.
11-20-03
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 360K expected, 366K prior.
Leading Economic Indicators, October (10:00): 0.2% expected, -0.2% September
Philly Fed, November (12:00): 25.0 expected, 28.0 October.
11-21-03
Treasury Budget, October (2:00): -$72.5B expected, -$54.1B September.
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: EGHT; EVCI; AAI; ADVP
Best Plays:
1) FLSH: Very good action from this leader.
2) PTSX: Volume is picking up as it readies for the breakout.
3) PFGC: Ready to fall after a weak test of the 50 day MVA breach.
4) NMGC: Volume is surging as it moves to the breakout.
5) VSH: Slight pullback Friday but strong.
6) ARDI: Ready to make the fall.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/15/2003
FLSH (M-Systems Flash Disk--$21.7; -0.01; optionable): Semiconductor memory chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flsh.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. FLSH is moving up the 18 day MVA (20.82), making higher lows below a more or less constant high at 22. Accumulation is solid at 3 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow is strong and relative strength has broken out and has remained solid. Waiting for solid breakout from the pattern.
Volume: 253.923K Avg Volume: 366.966K
BUY POINT: $22.22 Volume=450K Target=$26.65 Stop=$21.08
POSITION: FFU DX - Apr. $22.50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/flsh.html
Play Date: 11/15/2003
KVHI (KVH Industries--$30.1; -0.45; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kvhi.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A top rated stock as far as fundamentals and an excellent technical pattern as well. The current 10 week base comes after a strong run up from 10. It needed the consolidation and is roughly using the 50 day MVA (27.75) as the support in the base. Accumulation is excellent at 4 to 1. A very nice technical pattern and fundamentally sound stock as well. Very nice.
Volume: 123.193K Avg Volume: 357.045K
BUY POINT: $32.02 Volume=536K Target=$38.45 Stop=$30.35
POSITION: VJC CF - Mar. $30c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kvhi.html
Play Date: 11/15/2003
PTSX (Point.360--$5.02; +0.19; no options): Movie production, theater
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ptsx.html
STATUS: Flat base. After breaking out of a flat base in early September, PTSX has started to stair-step higher with solid surges and then lateral moves for a few weesk. It has made the lateral move for now for four weeks after jumping higher in mid-October. Volume has started to spike up last week, signaling it is ready for the next move. Accumulation in the lateral move is strong at 3 to 0. Surging money flow and a relative strength breakout. Volume moved up to average Friday as PTSX moved toward a breakout.
Volume: 89.59K Avg Volume: 95.752K
BUY POINT: $5.22 Volume=144K Target=$6.55 Stop=$4.85
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ptsx.html
Play Date: 11/15/2003
ZILA (Zila--$4.08; -0.06; no options): Drug products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zila.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working on a handle to an 8 week base showing excellent 4 to 0 accumulation. ZILA surged higher early in the year with a nice breakout . It is now working on this base, holding over the 50 day MVA (3.56) on the lows, a very good place for a base to form. It tried the breakout two weeks back with volume surging. It could not continue, and now is working sideways over the 18 day MVA (3.87) on low volume. It is showing excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout. Just taking a short breather before the next breakout move.
Volume: 73.716K Avg Volume: 135.328K
BUY POINT: $4.19 Volume=185K Target=$5.35 Stop=$3.87
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/zila.html
Downside:
Play Date: 11/15/2003
PFGC (Performance Food Group--$38.72; -0.28; optionable): Wholesale food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfgc.html
STATUS: Put. PFGC gapped down from the 50 day MVA (39.11) in late October, and as is usual, it made a rebound to test that breakdown. It is failing that move, however, rolling back over at tha tlevel after trying to retake it early last week. The stock has been under heavy distribution and money flow is weak. Looks to be starting a downtrend as it has failed at the 50 day MVA as well as the short term MVA (10 and 18 day) again.
Volume: 407.614K Avg Volume: 382.099K
BUY POINT: $38.58 Volume=450K Target=$36.05 Stop=$39.12
POSITION: PGU XH - Dec. $40p (-64 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pfgc.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/05/2003
AMXC (AMX Corp.--$6.25; -0.09; no options): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amxc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. AMXC made a strong breakout 7 sessions back, but could not hold the move as the market became choppy. It tested back to the 10 day MVA (6.07) and is now moving back up the 10 day, fomring a higher handle to the base. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the 12 week base with excellent money flow moving up ahead of the price. Friday volume surged as AMXC showed a tight doji. Looks ready to resume the breakout.
Volume: 269.76K Avg Volume: 107.95K
BUY POINT: New: 6.55 (orig. $6.27) Volume=151K Target=$8.12 Stop=$6.04
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amxc.html
Play Date: 11/12/2003
MKSI (MKS Instruments--$27.26; -0.77; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mksi.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. MKSI continues to work on the handle of its 10 week base, moving laterally over the 10 day MVA (27.25) with solid accumulation at s3 to 1. Money flow is strong, and relative strength is ready for a breakout. Good pattern ready to make the move, but last week was not the week to make the move. After the pullback this week it should be ready.
Volume: 184.721K Avg Volume: 412.486K
BUY POINT: $29.14 Volume=616K Target=$34.98 Stop=$27.05
POSITION: QQB DF - Apr. $30c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mksi.html
Play Date: 11/09/2003
MVSN (Macrovision--$22.15; -0.39; optionable): Movie production and theaters
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mvsn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Continues working on the handle to its 16 week base, holding over the 18 day MVA (22.09) on very low volume as it works laterally. Excellent accumulation at 8 to 1 shows big buyers moving in during the pattern.
Volume: 307.549K Avg Volume: 589.154K
BUY POINT: $23.08 Volume=891K Target=$27.69 Stop=$21.99
POSITION: MVU DX - Apr. $22.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mvsn.html
Play Date: 11/03/2003
NEOF (Neoforma--$16; -0.06; optionable): Internet services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/neof.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Still building the handle to its 9 week base sporiting excellent 4 to 0 accumulation. Money flow is solid, relative strength is holding up. Forming up well, but just have to be patient.
Volume: 40.398K Avg Volume: 99.067K
BUY POINT: $16.58 Volume=151K Target=$19.95 Stop=$15.42
POSITION: QZX DC - Apr. $15c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/neof.html
Play Date: 11/11/2003
NMGC (Neomagic--$3.14; +0.29; no options): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nmgc.html
STATUS: Cup. NMGC is starting the breakout from its 9 week cup base, making a massive volume break higher Friday on strong volume following a solid earnings report on Thursday. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout. Ready to jump on here as it continues the breakout higher.
Volume: 1.261M Avg Volume: 219.302K
BUY POINT: New: $3.22 (orig. $2.91) Volume=303K Target=$3.78 Stop=$2.68
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nmgc.html
Play Date: 11/05/2003
QCOM (Qualcom--$47.4; -0.3; optionable): Telecom equipment and licensing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. QCOM has not made the breakout, but it is showing excellent relative strength as the rest of the market sells. It has spent the month moving laterally over the 18 day MVA (46.63) in a very tight range and on low volume. This move is consolidating the breakout from a 5 week base that formed over the 50 day MVA. It has held up as the market has sold off, so we are staying with it and looking at a breakout on volume over 48 to enter positions.
Volume: 7.301M Avg Volume: 9.935M
BUY POINT: $48.12 Volume=14M Target=$57.25 Stop=$45.72
POSITION: AAO DW - Apr. $47.50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qcom.html
Play Date: 11/13/2003
SONS (Sonus Networks--$9.1; -0.26; optionable): Busines software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sons.html
STATUS: Breakout. Thursday SONS blasted higher on a storn govluem breakout. Friday it tried to continue the run but faded back on lower though still strong volume. The breakout was from an 11 week ascending triangle with strong 3 to 0 accumulation. It still held the breakout on the Friday pullback, a good sign. Huge money flow and a relative strength breakout.
Volume: 7.402M Avg Volume: 4.763M
BUY POINT: $9.48 Volume=6.8M Target=$11.55 Stop=$8.77
POSITION: UJS DB - Apr. $10c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sons.html
Play Date: 11/01/2003
TRPH (Tripath Technology--$5.16; -0.28; no options): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trph.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Edged back to the 10 day MVA (5.16) on the Friday close as volume backed way off. It continues to work in the latter stages of its 8 week base sporting very strong 4 to 0 accumulation. It is strong and is ready to make the next breakout.
Volume: 535.005K Avg Volume: 1.233M
BUY POINT: New: $5.56 (orig. $5.31) Volume=1.8M Target=$6.62 Stop=$4.85
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/trph.html
Play Date: 11/12/2003
VSH (Vishay Intertechnology--$19.96; -0.39; optionable): Electronic parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsh.html
STATUS: Flat base. Tried to make the move Friday but with lower volume it fell back and posted a slight loss. It is still solid in its 6 week base formed over the 50 day MVA (18.57) and below 20 that is actually a handle to a 19 month cup with handle base. Surging money flow and relative strength that is ready to breakout. After a big more softness to start the week it loosk ready to make its move.
Volume: 1.555M Avg Volume: 2.174M
BUY POINT: $20.33 Volume=3.2M Target=$24.38 Stop=$19.22
POSITION: VSH DD - Apr. $20c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vsh.html
Downside:
Play Date: 11/10/2003
ARDI (At Road, Inc.--$12.30; -0.43; optionable): Computer ITS
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ardi.html
STATUS: Put. After another test higher that ran into the 10 day MVA (12.72) and stalled, ARDI looks ready to continued its move lower. It gapped sharply lower in late October, rallied to test the 50 day MVA, and then failed to retake that level. Diving money flow and still under distribution.
Volume: 321.66K Avg Volume: 686.879K
BUY POINT: $12.12 Volume=1M Target=$10.06 Stop=$12.98
POSITION: UDH MV - Jan. $12.50p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ardi.html
Play Date: 11/01/2003
ASCA (Ameristar Casinos--$21; -0.69; optionable): Resorts and casinos
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asca.html
STATUS: Put. Very similar to ARDI, ASCA gapped below the 50 day MVA (23) in late October. It tried to rally back last week, making it up to the 18 day MVA (21.99) but Friday it rolled over at that level. Diving money flow and serious distribution as well. Looking for a move down from here to move in.
Volume: 187.661K Avg Volume: 139.517K
BUY POINT: New: $20.88 (orig. $20.27) Volume=185K Target=$18.85 Stop=$21.25
POSITION: UWT XX - Dec. $22.50p (-65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/asca.html
Play Date: 11/10/2003
ASKJ (Ask Jeeves--$18.6; -1; optionable): Internet information
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/askj.html
STATUS: Put. ASKJ is dancing around the 50 day MVA (19.32) though the dance is on the downside of that key support level. It is moving in something of a descending triangle, making the down sessions on rising volume. It tried to rally back mid-week, but volume was lower. It looks ready for a test down to the October low on further market selling early in the week.
Volume: 1.732M Avg Volume: 2.49M
BUY POINT: $18.22 Volume=2.5M Target=$16 Stop=$19.55
POSITION: AUK XD - Dec. $20p (-66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/askj.html
End part 2 of 3
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stock picking
stock option
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