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us stock market, trade stock
Beginp art 2 of 3
Economic Calendar
11-17-03
Business inventories, September (8:30): 0.0% expected, -0.4% August.
NY Empire Index, November (8:30): 27.0 expected, 33.7 October.
11-18-03
CPI, October (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.3% September.
Core CPI: 0.2% expected, 0.1% September.
11-19-03
Housing starts, October, (8:30): 1.850M expected, 1.888M prior.
Building permits, October (8:30): 1.850M expected, 1.875M September.
11-20-03
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 360K expected, 366K prior.
Leading Economic Indicators, October (10:00): 0.2% expected, -0.2% September
Philly Fed, November (12:00): 25.0 expected, 28.0 October.
11-21-03
Treasury Budget, October (2:00): -$72.5B expected, -$54.1B September.
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Friday: CLEC; TVIA; DCGN
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
New Post-Split:
Play Date: 11/15/2003
ZBRA (Zebra Technologies--$59.25; -0.75; optionable): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zbra.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. ZBRA broke out of a 3 month trading range in October, rallying to 60 and now testing the move, holding the 18 day MVA (58.62) last week and starting a bounce on strong volume. Positive accumulation in the trading range provides the good foundation for the breakout and subsequent move. A test of the 18 day MVA is a good point to enter a after a breakout. Strong money flow and relative strength as well. May test the 18 day MVA one more time and then provide the rebound, but held up very well in the Friday selling, another indication of strength.
Volume: 520.571K Avg Volume: 461.681K
BUY POINT: $60.74 Volume=693K Target=$69.85 Stop=$59.05
POSITION: ZBQ BL - Feb. $60c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zbra.html
Upside Leader Plays: These are stocks that have formed up well and can make us money. Not necessarily split stocks, but some can turn into split plays.
Play Date: 11/15/2003
FDRY (Foundry Networks--$23.51; -0.79; optionable): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdry.html
STATUS: Flat base. Working in a 9 week base forming over the 50 day MVA (22.79) between 22 and 24. Accumulation is a strong 3 to 0 in the base (3 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume), setting up the foundation for the next break higher. Tried the move Friday but was a bit volatile, closing lower on the session. It may take another session or two to test the 50 day and then provide the breakout move. Nice base, just need to see the volume rally back above average on the move through the buy point.
Volume: 2.617M Avg Volume: 2.778M
BUY POINT: $24.45 Volume=4.2M Target=$29.35 Stop=$23.42
POSITION: OUJ CE - Mar. $25c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fdry.html
Play Date: 11/15/2003
SWIR (Sierra Wireless--$18.75; +0.36; no options): PC networking and communication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/swir.html
STATUS: Cup. SWIR is working through a 5 week base that formed after a nice 10 point run since the last 50 day MVA test. It peaked at 19.25 and then fell into this base, using the 50 day MVA (15.32) as the bottom where it bounce in late October. Volume surged last week as it closed its secondary offering. Accumulation in the short pattern is a solid 3 to 1. Money flow is strong and relative strength is ready to make the breakout. One of the leaders, it may test back to the 10 day MVA (17.47) this week, forming a small handle. Either way, we will look for a strong breakout move on volume to enter this stock on its next leg.
Volume: 940.942K Avg Volume: 626.985K
BUY POINT: $19.12 Volume=1M Target=$23 Stop=$17.44
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/swir.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 11/13/2003
CRA (Applera--$13.30; -0.49; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cra.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. CRA was moving toward a breakout last Thursday, but backed off in the market selling on Friday as volume rose above average. Still working in a nice 5 month base with accumulation an outstanding 8 to 1. Money flow continues to move up ahead of price and relative strength is poised for a breakout. Still looks solid and we are looking to mov ein as it clears the recent intraday high.
Volume: 663K Avg Volume: 541.757K
BUY POINT: $13.94 Volume=809K Target=$16.75 Stop=$13.23
POSITION: CRA CV - Mar. $12.50c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cra.html
Play Date: 11/10/2003
CRIS (Curis--$5.34; +0.09; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cris.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CRIS exploded out of a nice, tight 7 week base Monday, rallied to 5.84. In the late week market selling it came back to test the breakout, falling to the 10 day MVA (5.17) on very low, below average volume. It has held the breakout at that point as money flow and relative strenght hold solid. Ready to resume the move on the breakout.
Volume: 509.93K Avg Volume: 615.676K
BUY POINT: $5.64 Volume=885K Target=$7.05 Stop=$5.15
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cris.html
Play Date: 11/05/2003
QCOM (Qualcom--$47.4; -0.3; optionable): Telecom equipment and licensing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qcom.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. QCOM has not made the breakout, but it is showing excellent relative strength as the rest of the market sells. It has spent the month moving laterally over the 18 day MVA (46.63) in a very tight range and on low volume. This move is consolidating the breakout from a 5 week base that formed over the 50 day MVA. It has held up as the market has sold off, so we are staying with it and looking at a breakout on volume over 48 to enter positions.
Volume: 7.301M Avg Volume: 9.935M
BUY POINT: $48.12 Volume=14M Target=$57.25 Stop=$45.72
POSITION: AAO DW - Apr. $47.50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qcom.html
Play Date: 11/13/2003
ULGX (Urologix--$5.63; -0.01; no options): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ulgx.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still forming the handle to a very sweet 8 week base formed over the 50 day MVA (4.95). Volume has dropped off as it works laterally, indicating no real selling as it shakes out the last sellers and prepars for the breakout move. Accumulation in the base is excellent at 4 to 0 and money flow is moving up ahead of price Friday volume edged higher as ULGX rallied but then eased back to close basically flat. Very nice pattern and just being patient for the breakout move.
Volume: 68.83K Avg Volume: 86.845K
BUY POINT: $5.94 Volume=130K Target=$7.45 Stop=$5.32
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ulgx.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: We will to look at the stocks in the best patterns for entry points moving into the potential split announcements. We are researching the next date on those that did not announce but are still very strong. Some companies are still gun-shy about announcing splits, but one of the things we love about split plays is that they involve market leaders that make us good money even if they do not announce.
APPB: No split on 10-29-03. Testing the breakout.
AVP: Broke the 18 day MVA and we exited.
CHS: Forecast 12-2-03 after the market closes.
COCO: Forecast 11-20 at a board meeting.
COLM: No split announced on 10-23-03.
COO: Forecast 12-11-03.
CPWM: Forecast 11-20 before the open.
DG: Forecast 12-4.
FDX: Forecast 12-17-03.
FOSL: No split announced 11-11-03. Testing the nice breakout.
FRED: Forecast 11-20-03.
HSIC: Forecast 11-20-03
KLAC: Forecast 12-12-03.
MIK: Forecast 11-25-03.
ORLY: No split announced 10-28-03 after the close. Auto parts are announcing splits so we are researching the next date.
PDCO: Forecast on 11-20-03.
PIR: Forecast 12-4-03.
RI: Forecast 12-4 in conjunction with a board meeting. Powering higher.
ROST: Forecast 11-18-03 before the market with earnings.
SYK: No split announced on 10-16-03.
UOPX: Researching the next date.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 11/15/2003
MGAM (Multimedia Games--$42.8; -1.02; optionable): Gaming supplies to Native American gaming market. Forecast to announce a split on 11-24-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 1-14-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $36.5. The annual shareholder meeting was on 2-18-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mgam.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. MGAM broke out of a 2om month base in late September and rallied to 45. The past 4 weeks it fell into a short base that tested the 50 day MVA (35.23) on the low and rebounded sharply to post a new high. It is now coming back to test the 10 day MVA (41.55) on lower volume, preparing for the next leg higher in the breakout. These early test so of the breakout move are excellent entry points. We are looking for a full 10 day MVA test and then a rebound on volume. Huge money flow and a strong relative strength breakout.
Volume: 555.532K Avg Volume: 555.871K
BUY POINT: $42.12 Volume=834K Target=$50 Stop=$40.55
POSITION: QMG AH - Jan. $40c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mgam.html
Play Date: 11/15/2003
NSIT (Insight Enterprises--$18.17; +0.04; optionable): Supply chain & other business management services. Forecast to announce a split on 1-30-04 in conjunction with earnings. The company did not confirm this date, but based upon our research this is the date for earnings release..
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 7-27-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $45. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-14-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nsit.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. It has been a long time since NSIT announced a split, but the stock is at a 52-week high and in a beautiful pattern the past 9 weeks, a nice cap to a rally up the short term MVA through September. Accumulation in the pattern is an outstanding 6 to 1, providing a super foundation for another breakout move. The pattern somewhat mimics the SP500, but the accumulation is much stronger. It is holding over the 50 day MVA (17.21), and Friday showed a very tight hammer doji that tapped the 10 day MVA (18) on the low. Nice pattern and looking for a breakout move to send it on the next leg higher.
Volume: 296.412K Avg Volume: 545.816K
BUY POINT: $19.06 Volume=819K Target=$22.88 Stop=$17.94
POSITION: QNT BW - Feb. $17.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nsit.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 11/01/2003
COO (Cooper Companies--$42.85; -0.35; optionable): Medical Instruments. Forecast to announce a split on 11-4-03 in conjunction with a board meeting or on 12-11-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company will not confirm the date for the board meeting, but based upon our research this is the date for the meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 11-5-02 in conjunction with a board meeting at a stock price of $52.94. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-25-03 at which time additional shares were authorized.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coo.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. COO's pattern has moved into a 10 week triangle using the 50 day MVA (41.45) as support as it makes higher and higher lows while it pushes up against a constant top at 44. Accumulation in the base is an excellent 4 to 0. It may come back a bit to start the week, but we do not think it will come back to the 50 day MVA before trying the breakout.
Volume: 288.2K Avg Volume: 365.666K
BUY POINT: $44.06 Volume=550K Target=$50.88 Stop=$41.95
POSITION: COO BI - Feb. $45c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coo.html
Play Date: 11/06/2003
FDX (Federal Express--$76.9; -0.18; optionable): Express delivery. Forecast to announce a split on 12-17-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 3-18-99 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $92. Also announced a 2 for 1 on 10-1-96 at a stock price of $80. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-29-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdx.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still working laterally over the 10 day MVA (76.18) after surging to 78 on the break over 74. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout even as it moves laterally. Strong stock in the market, holding its own as the market sold. Looking for volume on the way back up to take more positions from this strong stock.
Volume: 1.077M Avg Volume: 1.438M
BUY POINT: $77.72 Volume=1.8M Target=$90 Stop=$72.28
POSITION: FDX AO - Jan. $75c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fdx.html
Play Date: 11/12/2003
FOSL (Fossil--$28.53; -0.68; optionable): Watches, shoes, fashion accessories. No split announced on 11-11-03 in conjunction with earnings but a nice breakout.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-14-02 in conjunction with a board meeting at a stock price of $27.70. the annual shareholder meeting was on 5-21-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fosl.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. FOSL blasted higher on earnings to start last week and in the late week selling came back to test the breakout on much lower, below average volume. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the 11 week base. Strong money flow. Looking for the stock to hold the 10 day MVA at 28 and then start the move back up on above average trade. Excellent earnings, and FOSL could pop off a split announcement this week as stocks often like to announce after earnings are out to see how the performance is after the results.
Volume: 144.887K Avg Volume: 264.348K
BUY POINT: Test 28, then $28.75 on the way back up. Volume=369K Target=$33.55 Stop=$27.85
POSITION: QFS LE - Dec. $25c (81 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fosl.html
Play Date: 11/04/2003
MIK (Michaels--$48; -0.06; optionable): Arts and craft stores. Forecast to announce a split on 11-25-03 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 10-31-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $52. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-19-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mik.html
STATUS: Breakout test. MIK shot higher Wednesday, looking solid but then reversed on strong trade Thursday as it was downgraded after showing a solid increase in sales. It held the 18 day MVA (47.88), however, showing a doji there on Friday. That indicates the downgrade was a momentary delay in the stock. It is in a strong uptrend after coming off the 50 day MVA to start October. Looking for it to hold here and then rally on strong volume once more as it shakes off the downgrade. Strong stocks should do that.
Volume: 549.5K Avg Volume: 585.856K
BUY POINT: $49 Volume=873K Target=$58.74 Stop=$47.78
POSITION: MIK CT - Mar. $47.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mik.html
Play Date: 11/09/2003
PIR (Pier 1 Imports--$25.65; -0.07; optionable): Home furnishing stores. Forecast to announce a split on 12-4-03 in conjunction with a board meeting or on 12-9-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed these dates, but based upon our research these are the dates.
BACKGROUND: Last split its stock in June 1998 at a stock price of $25. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-26-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pir.html
STATUS: Breakout. PIR continues to move laterally after blasting higher when it upped its guidance two weeks back. It has been very stingy with the gain, hardly giving any of the move back as it trades sideways the past week. The 10 day MVA (25.15) is moving up to meet the stock, and when the two meet we expect the stock to start the next leg higher. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout on the move show the underlying strength.
Volume: 451.4K Avg Volume: 1.043M
BUY POINT: Test 25, then $25.25 on the way back up. If it starts from here, 26.12 on above average volume. Volume=1.6M Target=$30.35 Stop=$23.98
POSITION: PIR CE - Mar. $25c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pir.html
Play Date: 11/11/2003
SCSS (Select Comfort--$28.57; +0.13; optionable): Air mattresses. Researching a date for SCSS but great entry point so we wanted to get it on the report.
BACKGROUND: Trading for 5 years but no split yet. It is in a range where retailers start to announce splits.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scss.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA (27.51). Hmmm. SCSS has been unable to move off the 50 day MVA yet though it has made some half-hearted attempts. After the strong move higher up the short term MVA after the April breakout, it needed this test, but it is not giving a quick bounce up off this support. That is not necessarily bad as volume has backed off and is now below average as it works laterally. This stock is a leader, and we will be patient and let it complete this test and start back up on strong volume. It will show us when to move in.
Volume: 346.359K Avg Volume: 509.272K
BUY POINT: $29.22 Volume=1M Target=$35 Stop=$28.96
POSITION: QSL CF - Mar. $30c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/scss.html
Play Date: 11/03/2003
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$71.20; -0.17; optionable): Online education. Still researching the next split date, and most likely in early 2004. Good action right now, however.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4 for 3 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $38.95. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. Tried to rally put the wood to the move Friday, rallying to 74.07 on the high, but turned around with the market in the afternoon. It continues its move off the 50 day MVA test, holding over the 10 day MVA (70.40). It has made a higher low and is getting its feet under it. We have said it before, but this stock can run like a deer when it gets going. Friday it was trying to make the move out of a 5 week consolidation, but the volume was not there. When the volume shows up on the move, that is when we enter some new positions.
Volume: 147.448K Avg Volume: 245.698K
BUY POINT: $73.05 Volume=315K Target=$84 Stop=$68.72
POSITION: UBY CN - Mar. $70c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 11/11/2003
CLE (Claires Stores--$41.82; -0.45; optionable): Apparel Stores. Splits 2:1 on 12-22-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cle.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Nice move Thursday off the 10 day MVA (41.26) on rising volume, but slid back Friday in the overall selling. Still in excellent shape with strong money flow and relative strength, holding over the 10 day MVA.
Volume: 281.6K Avg Volume: 435.369K
BUY POINT: New: $42.42 (orig. $41.75) Volume=500K Target=$48 Stop=$40.62
POSITION: CLE BH - Feb. $40c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cle.html
Play Date: 11/04/2003
DIOD (Diodes--$28.9; -2; no options): Splits 3:2 on 11-26-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/diod.html
STATUS: Test 10 day MVA. DIOD is showing excellent action, shooting higher Wednesday and Thursday on strong trade. In the Friday selling it took a breather that tapped the 10 day MVA (28.01) on the low and then rebounded sharply. Volume backed off on the pullback just as it should. Looking for it to continue the move this week.
Volume: 162.542K Avg Volume: 56.618K
BUY POINT: New: 30.05 (orig. $26.08) Volume=75K Target=New positions: $35 (orig. positions: $31.25) Stop=$25.94
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/diod.html
End part 2 of 3
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