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Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Good movers Friday: AMSWA; DCGN; EGHT; EVCI; RWY; TVIA
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/15/2003
FLSH (M-Systems Flash Disk--$21.7; -0.01; optionable): Semiconductor memory chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flsh.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. FLSH is moving up the 18 day MVA (20.82), making higher lows below a more or less constant high at 22. Accumulation is solid at 3 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. Money flow is strong and relative strength has broken out and has remained solid. Waiting for solid breakout from the pattern.
Volume: 253.923K Avg Volume: 366.966K
BUY POINT: $22.22 Volume=450K Target=$26.65 Stop=$21.08
POSITION: FFU DX - Apr. $22.50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/flsh.html
Play Date: 11/15/2003
NSIT (Insight Enterprises--$18.17; +0.04; optionable): Supply chain & other business management services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nsit.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. It has been a long time since NSIT announced a split, but the stock is at a 52-week high and in a beautiful pattern the past 9 weeks, a nice cap to a rally up the short term MVA through September. Accumulation in the pattern is an outstanding 6 to 1, providing a super foundation for another breakout move. The pattern somewhat mimics the SP500, but the accumulation is much stronger. It is holding over the 50 day MVA (17.21), and Friday showed a very tight hammer doji that tapped the 10 day MVA (18) on the low. Nice pattern and looking for a breakout move to send it on the next leg higher.
Volume: 296.412K Avg Volume: 545.816K
BUY POINT: $19.06 Volume=819K Target=$22.88 Stop=$17.94
POSITION: QNT BW - Feb. $17.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nsit.html
Play Date: 11/15/2003
EPIC (Epicor Software--$11.55; +0.52; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/epic.html
STATUS: Flat base. EPIC spent the past 5 weeks working between 10 and 11.50, moving laterally as the 50 day MVA (9.96) rises to meet the stock. Indeed, last week EPIC tested the 50 day and bounced on rising volume. Strong 3 to 1 accumulation in the base, surging money flow, and a relative strength breakout as EPIC surged Friday on strong volume after delivering a nice earnings report. Looking to pick it up here as it continues rallying out of the base.
Volume: 1.413M Avg Volume: 348.087K
BUY POINT: $11.68 Volume=522K Target=$14.06 Stop=$10.81
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/epic.html
Downside:
Play Date: 11/15/2003
PFGC (Performance Food Group--$38.72; -0.28; optionable): Wholesale food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfgc.html
STATUS: Put. PFGC gapped down from the 50 day MVA (39.11) in late October, and as is usual, it made a rebound to test that breakdown. It is failing that move, however, rolling back over at tha tlevel after trying to retake it early last week. The stock has been under heavy distribution and money flow is weak. Looks to be starting a downtrend as it has failed at the 50 day MVA as well as the short term MVA (10 and 18 day) again.
Volume: 407.614K Avg Volume: 382.099K
BUY POINT: $38.58 Volume=450K Target=$36.05 Stop=$39.12
POSITION: PGU XH - Dec. $40p (-64 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pfgc.html
Continuing plays ready to move: TRPH; CRA; GBN; GEMS; MKSI; MVSN; NMGC; ULGX
Play Date: 11/11/2003
NMGC (Neomagic--$3.14; +0.29; no options): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nmgc.html
STATUS: Cup. NMGC is starting the breakout from its 9 week cup base, making a massive volume break higher Friday on strong volume following a solid earnings report on Thursday. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout. Ready to jump on here as it continues the breakout higher.
Volume: 1.261M Avg Volume: 219.302K
BUY POINT: New: $3.22 (orig. $2.91) Volume=303K Target=$3.78 Stop=$2.68
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nmgc.html
CONTINUING PLAY LIST: This week the summary table breaks out the upside and downside plays into different sections labeled accordingly.
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
^OEX 11/06 A Wedge 519.01 -3.98 523.15 545 401K 650K 518.55
Current. More volatile with 525.69 at the high and 517.77 at the low. Thudded down to close below the 18 day MVA on slightly below average volume. Still in the pattern
ALGN 11/03 Test BO 16.88 +0.01 17.45 20.85 556K 616K 16.44
Current. Volatile with 17.30 at the high and 16.70 at the low showing a doji just under the 10 day MVA on much lower volume. Still in good shape.
AMSWA 10/23 Test BO 7.04 +0.33 6.12 7.45 234K 150K 6.55
Current. Breakout. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied for a great move on stronger above average volume.
ANT 11/10 A Wedge 34.92 -0.66 35.58 42.45 186K 561K 34.08
Current. Thudded lower on below average volume. Managed to retain some of Wednesday's great move. Still in uptrend.
BEV 11/12 Cup 7.25 -0.3 7.25 8.94 2.7M 1.7M 6.72
Current. Tapped 7.83 at the day's high, but gave it back and more on much lower, but still above average volume. Continues to move up the 10 day MVA.
BRKS 10/29 Cup 25.22 -1.25 27 32.38 1.1M 1.4M 25.55
Current. Thudded down to close below the 18 day MVA on above average volume. Needs to hold here.
BRLI 10/20 Cup hdl 17.1 -0.75 13.45 16.22 367K 212K 16.41
Current. Fell below the 10 day MVA on much lower, but still above average volume. Still in good shape.
BWC 11/13 DB hdl 19.49 -0.47 20.08 24.12 109K 155K 19.19
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 20.32 but gave it back and more on lower, but still above average volume. Managed to retain some of yesterday's great move. Still in uptrend and moving up the 10 day MVA.
CASY 11/06 Rv H&S 16 -0.4 16.26 20 73K 200K 15.35
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 16.46 intraday, but gave it all back holding the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Still in good shape.
CATS 10/27 Test BO 7.36 -0.11 7.58 9.12 42K 145K 7.05
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open, but gave it all back to close on the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Still in the pattern.
CKSW 10/25 Test BO 3.86 -0.15 3.61 4.58 156K 300K 3.57
Current. Gapped up at the open and then moved up to tap 4.14 intraday, but gave it back on low volume. Managed to retain the majority of Wednesday's great move. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
CORI 10/27 Test BO 6.35 +0.1 6.25 7.85 681K 550K 6.08
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move between the 10 and 18 day MVA on average volume.
CRA 11/13 Rv H&S 13.3 -0.49 13.94 16.75 663K 809K 13.23
Buy Not Hit. Thudded down to hold at the 10 day MVA on slightly above average volume. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied. May test down further.
CYMI 11/06 DB hdl 46.38 -2.07 49.39 59.22 900K 2M 46.25
Current. Fell to hold at the 18 day MVA on much lower volume. Needs to hold here.
DCGN 09/20 Test BO 8.96 +0.46 4.32 5.38 1.2M 315K 7.29
Current. Great move up as the stock climbs the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
DJO 09/11 Cup 23.74 -1.26 14 16.45 223K 100K 21.63
Current. Tapped 26.17 at the day's high, but gave it all back on stronger volume surge. Managed to retain a portion of yesterday's move. May test down further.
ECIL 10/02 Test BO 6.01 -0.24 4.3 5.22 254K 300K 5.65
Current. Pull back to give back most of yesterday's move on much lower volume. Still in uptrend.
EGHT 10/30 Cup 3.63 +0.21 2.15 2.91 2M 823K 3.06
Current. Gapped down at the open, but soared on above average volume. Tapped 3.86 at the high, but gave it back. Still in the pattern.
EGOV 10/07 Test BO 6.55 -0.42 5.07 6.35 472K 264K 6.44
Current. Thudded down to hold just above the 10 day MVA on stronger, but average volume. May test down further.
EGOV 09/20 Cup hdl 6.55 -0.42 4.8 5.68 472K 264K 6.44
Current.
EMBT 10/06 Flat 15.79 +0.23 11.24 13.38 418K 350K 14.48
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on above average volume.
EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 15.79 +0.23 9.33 11.12 418K 400K 14.48
Current.
ENCY 11/09 Dbl btm 6.93 -0.06 7.48 9.35 376K 522K 6.96
Buy Not Issued. Tested 6.61 at the low and rallied showing a tight doji on the 10 day MVA on below average volume. May be ready for next move up.
EVCI 10/20 Cup hdl 4.97 +0.59 3.4 4.38 560K 125K 4.55
Current. Gapped down to open below the 18 day MVA and rallied for a great move on excellent volume surge. Tapped 5.23 at the high, but gave it back. Resistance is at 5.16.
GBN 10/22 Cup 2.16 +0.01 1.86 2.42 424K 300K 2.02
Current. Narrow trading range showing a doji on lower, but still above average volume. Continue to make a lateral move above the 10 day MVA.
GEMS 10/22 Test BO 3.07 -0.08 2.87 3.72 213K 487K 3.01
Current. Pull back to close just above the 18 day MVA on very low volume. Still in the pattern.
JNPR 11/01 A Wedge 17.75 -0.71 18.94 22.42 9.8M 15M 17.79
Exited. Exited with a trailing stop. Thudded down to close below the 18 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
KEI 11/05 Cup hdl 16.71 -1.06 18.37 22.05 58K 150K 17.45
Exited. Exited as the stock tanked below the 18 day MVA on higher volume.
LM 05/06 Cup hdl 81.05 -3.77 58.5 67.78 1.1M 610K 82.92
Exited. Exited with a trailing stop as stock thudded below the 18 day MVA on strong volume surge.
MDS 11/09 Cup 13.9 -0.09 14.28 17.21 126K 120K 13.63
Current. Tapped 13.50 at the day's low and made a fierce rally on above average volume. May test back further.
MKSI 11/12 DB hdl 27.26 -0.77 29.14 34.98 185K 616K 27.05
Buy Not Hit. Thudded down to close on the 10 day MVA on below average volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
MVSN 11/09 Cup hdl 22.15 -0.39 23.08 27.69 308K 891K 21.99
Buy Not Hit. Thudded down to hold just above the 18 day MVA on below average volume. Still in the pattern.
NMGC 11/11 Cup 3.14 +0.29 2.91 3.78 1.3M 303K 2.68
Current. Volatile session with 3.38 at the high and 2.68 at the low (18 day MVA). Bounced off the 10 day MVA and rallied on stronger volume surge. Still in uptrend.
NOOF 11/01 Cup hdl 6.95 -0.06 5.27 6.32 486K 319K 6.24
Current. Gapped down at the open and rallied on lower, but still above average volume. Still in uptrend.
NOOF 10/25 Cup hdl 6.95 -0.06 4.78 6.21 486K 280K 6.24
Current.
NXTL 10/02 Cup hdl 23.62 -0.58 20.76 24.95 13M 27M 23.31
Current. Thudded down to close below the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Still in the pattern.
NXTL 09/17 Cup hdl 23.62 -0.58 20.64 24.75 13M 24M 23.31
Current.
ONNN 10/28 Test 50 5.11 +0.28 4.65 5.88 3.9M 1.7M 4.58
Current. Gapped up at the open to continue to move up the 10 day MVA for a nice gain on stronger volume surge.
OPSW 10/28 A Wedge 8.45 -0.45 8.95 10.95 605K 1M 8.42
Current. Thudded down to close just below the 18 day MVA on below average volume. Needs to hold here.
PDYN 09/29 DB hdl 4.45 -0.23 2.55 3.24 707K 450K 4.22
Current. More volatile session with 4.65 at the hig and 4.31 at the low. Pull back on much lower, but still above average volume.
PLXS 11/03 DB hdl 18.25 -0.8 19.06 22.75 339K 528K 18.23
Current. Thudded down to hold on the 18 day MVA on below average volume. Needs to hold here.
PLXT 11/03 A Wedge 9.26 -0.62 8.81 10.96 196K 222K 9.02
Current. Fell to close below the 10 day MVA on high, but average volume. May test down further.
PUMA 10/27 A Wedge 6.78 -0.15 7.34 9.06 677K 1.4M 6.76
Current. Pull back to hold at the 18 day MVA on below average volume. Tapped 7.10 at the day's high, but gave it back. Needs to hold here.
QADI 11/12 Flat 13.37 -0.33 13.54 16.22 409K 298K 12.44
Current. Volatile session with 14.17 at the high and 12.70 at the low (10 day MVA). Pull back on much lower, but still strong volume. Still in uptrend.
QLGC 11/11 Test 18 55.3 -1.72 57.22 65.85 3.6M 5.5M 55.35
Buy Not Issued. Thudded down to close below the 18 day MVA on slightly higher, but still below average volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
REMC 11/06 Dbl btm 12.05 -0.65 12.88 15.75 367K 800K 11.92
Buy Not Issued. Thudded down to hold just above the 18 day MVA on very low volume. Needs to hold at the 18 day MVA and bounce.
RETK 10/06 A Wedge 10.22 -0.58 8.49 10.25 694K 776K 10.37
Exited. Exited with a trailing stop. Stock tanked to close below the 18 day MVA on stronger volume.
RWY 11/04 Cup hdl 6.75 +0.22 6.24 7.85 235K 146K 6.34
Current. Gapped up at the open and rallied for a nice gain on stronger volume surge.
SCMR 11/04 A Wedge 4.93 -0.22 5.39 6.72 2.2M 3M 5.49
Exited. Exited as stock tanked below the 50 day MVA on below average volume.
SCSS 11/11 Test 50 27.84 -0.73 29.22 35 337K 1M 28.96
Buy Not Hit. Thudded down to hold at the simple 50 day MVA on below average volume. Needs to rebound from here or will look to drop.
SINA 10/24 Test 50 34.43 -1.55 41.55 50 5.8M 15M 39.42
Exited. Exited with a trailing stop as stock tanked below support at 35.
SINA 09/09 Cup 34.43 -1.55 36.15 41 5.8M 12M 37.55
Exited.
SINA 08/18 Test 50 34.43 -1.55 32.2 38.25 5.8M 10M 37.55
Exited.
SOFO 10/02 Test BO 2.22 0 2.05 2.74 232K 395K 2.28
Exited. Exited with a trailing stop. Tapped 18 day MVA at the high, but rolled over showing a doji on below average volume.
SOHU 10/24 Dbl btm 31.14 -0.95 37.69 45 1.9M 9M 34.85
Current. Moved down further on low volume. Looking for a relief bounce for possible exit from play.
SONS 11/13 A Wedge 9.1 -0.26 9.48 11.55 7.4M 6.8M 8.77
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 9.80 at the high, but gave it back and then some on much lower, but still above average volume. Still in good shape.
TARO 10/08 Cup hdl 65.94 +0.87 61.51 73 266K 501K 64.88
Current. Move up to close above the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Tapped 66.67 intraday, but could not hold the entire gain. Still in the pattern.
TELM 09/30 Test BO 1.69 -0.06 1.51 2.04 3.4M 7M 1.61
Current. Gapped down to open on the 18 day and rally to close flat. Tapped 1.69 at the high, but could not hold the gain.
TLAB 11/10 DB hdl 8.15 -0.25 8.27 9.88 4.7M 6M 7.86
Current. Tapped 8.80 at the day's high, but gave it back and then some on much lower, but average volume. Managed to retain most of Wednesday's great move.
TRPH 11/01 A Wedge 5.16 -0.28 5.31 6.62 535K 1.8M 5.12
Current. Thudded down to hold the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Still in good shape.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 40.81 -0.43 23.42 27.62 409K 603K 39.94
Current. Pull back to close below the 18 day MVA on higher, but still well below average volume. Tapped 42.21 at the day's high, but could not hold the gain. Needs to hold here.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 40.81 -0.43 21.88 26 409K 603K 39.94
Current.
TVIA 11/04 Cup hdl 2.67 +0.36 2.62 3.34 604K 219K 2.38
Current. Explosive move on strong volume surge.
TXN 10/23 Test BO 28.83 -1.36 27.65 33.18 13M 18M 29.48
Exited. Exited the stock as it tanked below the 18 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
ULGX 11/13 DB hdl 5.63 -0.01 5.94 7.45 69K 130K 5.32
Buy Not Hit. Volatile sessionw tih 5.89 at the high and 5.50 at the low showing a doji on slightly higher, but below average volume. Moving up the 10 day MVA.
VAR 10/28 Cup hdl 67.27 +0.3 64.5 74.25 629K 1.1M 65.42
Current. Stock continues to move up the 10 day MVA on slightly higher, but average volume.
VLGC 11/10 Cup 1.89 +0.01 2.06 2.72 1.3M 1.3M 1.92
Buy Not Issued. More volatile with 2.03 at the high and 1.85 at the low showing a doji on higher, above average volume. Beginning to move up the 10 day MVA.
XLNX 11/12 DB hdl 34.63 +0.06 34.78 41 9.2M 11M 33.55
Current. Volatile with 35.20 at the high and 34.13 at the low showing a doji on stronger above average volume. May be ready for next move up.
XLNX 11/01 DB hdl 34.63 +0.06 32.68 38.68 9.2M 11M 33.55
Current.
ZMH 08/09 Test BO 63.8 -0.3 51.12 59.55 1.1M 3M 62.78
Current. Narrow trading range showing a tight doji on below average volume. May be ready for next move up.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ARDI 11/10 Put 12.3 -0.43 12.12 10.06 322K 1M 12.98
Buy Not Issued. Tapped the 10 day MVA and rolled over for a nice move down on below average volume.
ASCA 11/01 Put 21 -0.69 20.27 18.85 188K 185K 21.25
Current. Tapped 21.80 at the day's high and rolled over for a good move down closing below the 10 day MVA on above average volume.
SFNT 11/11 Put 32.81 -1.63 34.05 30.55 148K 461K 35.12
Tapped the 10 day MVA intraday and rolled over for great move down on below average volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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