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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Monday: CRIS; DCGN; GRMN (getting ready)
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Upside Leader Plays: These are stocks that have formed up well and can make us money. Not necessarily split stocks, but some can turn into split plays.
Play Date: 11/17/2003
CY (Cypress Semiconductor--$21.59; +0.12; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cy.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. CY is one of the chip leaders, showing excellent relative strength, holding the 18 day MVA (21.67) as the rest of the market sold to the 50 day. It showed a tight doji on that level Monday as volume shot higher. The stock has basically been on a non-stop run off of roughly $6. No question it is a bit extended, but with the chips looking as if they will lead a rally back up we are willing to make a play out of this one that is showing such strength.
Volume: 7.258M Avg Volume: 3.079M
BUY POINT: $22.02 Volume=4.6M Target=$26.45 Stop=$21.45
POSITION: CY CD - Mar. $20c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cy.html
Play Date: 11/17/2003
KERX (Keryx Biopharmaceuticals--$5.23; +0.17; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kerx.html
STATUS: Flat base. KERX is moving through a 4 week flat base over the 18 day MVA (4.88), showing outstanding accumulation as it works laterall (3 to 0, 3 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume). Excellent money flow and relatives strength as it held up well as the rest of the market sold off. Monday volume was up though still below average as it moved off a tes of the 18 day. This is part of a much larger 23 month base. Again, surging money flow leading the way higher, and we are looking for KERX to follow the money flow higher.
Volume: 192.691K Avg Volume: 192.318K
BUY POINT: $5.35 Volume=288K Target=$6.95 Stop=$4.92
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kerx.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 11/10/2003
CRIS (Curis--$5.49; +0.15; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cris.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. As the market sold Monday, CRIS was moving higher, testing the 10 day MVA on the low (5.17) and rebounding for a gain on rising, above average volume. CRIS exploded out of a nice, tight 7 week base Monday, rallied to 5.84. In the late week market selling it came back to test the breakout, falling to the 10 day MVA on very low, below average volume. It has held the breakout at that point as money flow and relative strenght hold solid. Ready to resume the move on the breakout.
Volume: 892.071K Avg Volume: 616.727K
BUY POINT: $5.64 Volume=885K Target=$7.05 Stop=$5.15
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cris.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 11/15/2003
MGAM (Multimedia Games--$42.72; -0.08; optionable): Gaming supplies to Native American gaming market. Forecast to announce a split on 11-24-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 1-14-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $36.5. The annual shareholder meeting was on 2-18-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mgam.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Nice test of the 10 day MVA (41.76), tapping that level on the Monday low and rebounding on rising, average volume. Looks ready to make the move. MGAM broke out of a 2 month base in late September and rallied to 45. The past 4 weeks it fell into a short base that tested the 50 day MVA (35.23) on the low and rebounded sharply to post a new high. These early tests of the breakout move are excellent entry points. Huge money flow and a strong relative strength breakout.
Volume: 672.657K Avg Volume: 563.363K
BUY POINT: $42.88 (orig. 42.12) Volume=834K Target=$50 Stop=$40.55
POSITION: QMG AH - Jan. $40c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mgam.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 11/13/2003
HAR (Harman Intl.--$126.06; +1.86; optionable): High end audio equipment. Splits 2:1 on 12-5-03
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/har.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Wow. Big volume as HAR surged off the 18 day MVA (123.41), showing that momentum we were talking about as well as a load of volume. Still looks solid and still a buy given the strong volume.
Volume: 677K Avg Volume: 320.136K
BUY POINT: New positions: $126.58 (orig. $125.25) Volume=325K Target=$133.55 Stop=$122.88
POSITION: HAR AE - Jan. $125c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/har.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; PreAnn=Pre-Announcement split; PreSplt=Pre-split; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
^OEX 11/06 A Wedge 516.23 -2.78 523.15 545 418K 650K 518.55
Current.
APA 11/06 Test 50 71.5 -0.81 70.38 75.55 1.2M 1.8M 70.21
Current.
APPB 10/13 BO 36.79 -0.47 37.55 44.95 314K 750K 36.84
Current.
BHE 10/27 Test 50 34.54 -0.4 32.68 37.28 564K 550K 34.28
Exited.
BLUD 10/21 A Wedge 20.98 -0.35 31.22 35.85 355K 320K 31.02
Current.
BSX 10/23 Test 50 34.64 -0.01 33.4 37.5 4.3M 4M 34
Current.
BSX 09/29 Test 50 34.64 -0.01 32.72 34.73 4.3M 4.5M 34
Current.
BWC 11/13 DB hdl 18.89 -0.6 20.08 24.12 79K 155K 19.19
Buy Not Issued.
CATS 10/27 Test BO 7.18 -0.18 7.58 9.12 56K 145K 7.05
Buy Not Issued.
CEDC 10/25 Test 18 33.4 +0.29 34.25 40.88 561K 282K 36.88
Current.
CHS 10/04 Dbl btm 36.95 -0.54 34.62 41.53 579K 1.8M 37.11
Current.
CLE 11/11 Test BO 41.06 -0.76 41.75 48 291K 500K 40.62
Buy Not Issued.
CLEC 10/30 Cup hdl 5.88 +0.18 5.54 6.94 134K 96K 5.15
Buy Not Hit.
CMNT 11/06 DB hdl 10.25 -0.49 10.75 13.55 348K 800K 9.99
Buy Not Issued.
COCO 09/20 DB hdl 60.8 -1.8 59.42 69 1.4M 1.1M 61.32
Current.
COH 09/20 PreSplt 36.72 -0.98 30.06 34.55 1.8M 1.2M 35.88
Current.
COO 11/01 DB hdl 43.1 +0.25 44.06 50.88 157K 550K 41.95
Buy Not Issued.
CPTV 08/26 Cup hdl 11.9 +0.08 6.5 8.12 105K 200K 11.65
Current.
CRA 11/13 Rv H&S 13.48 +0.18 13.94 16.75 531K 809K 13.23
Buy Not Hit.
CRAI 11/10 DB hdl 31.75 -0.19 33.32 40 41K 109K 41.38
Buy Not Issued.
CRIS 11/10 Cup hdl 5.49 +0.15 5.64 7.05 891K 885K 5.15
Buy Not Issued.
DCGN 09/20 Test BO 9.4 +0.44 4.32 5.38 1.2M 315K 7.29
Current.
DG 08/12 Cup hdl 21.19 -0.64 22.72 26.45 1.3M 2.9M 21.13
DIOD 11/04 Cup hdl 28 -0.9 26.08 31.25 74K 75K 25.94
Buy Not Issued.
DJO 09/11 Cup 22.45 -1.29 14 16.45 177K 100K 21.63
Current.
EASI 10/14 A Wedge 47.63 +0.18 44.06 50 248K 287K 45.44
Current.
EBAY 08/02 PreSplt 53.28 -1.1 53.78 60 9.7M 9M 53.94
Current.
EBAY 03/08 BO 53.28 -1.1 40.04 46 9.7M 8M 53.94
Current.
ECIL 10/02 Test BO 6.01 0 4.3 5.22 207K 300K 5.65
Current.
EMBT 10/06 Flat 15.7 -0.09 11.24 13.38 766K 350K 14.48
Current.
EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 15.7 -0.09 9.33 11.12 766K 400K 14.48
Current.
ET 09/18 Cup hdl 10.1 -0.26 10.8 12.94 6.1M 7M 10.36
Exited.
FDRY 11/15 Flat 22.95 -0.56 24.45 29.35 1.7M 4.2M 23.42
Buy Not Hit.
FDX 11/06 BO 76.01 -0.89 77.72 90 1.6M 1.8M 75.94
Current.
FOSL 11/12 DB hdl 28.25 -0.28 28.75 33.55 136K 369K 27.85
Current.
FOSL 11/01 DB hdl 28.25 -0.28 28.17 33.55 136K 369K 27.85
Current.
GGP 10/14 FlyPlat 79.7 -0.7 75.12 86.25 192K 275K 78.95
Current.
GPRO 11/12 Cup hdl 28.66 -0.34 30.85 36.95 529K 1.1M 28.67
Current.
GRMN 11/09 Cup hdl 51.72 +2.34 52.62 60.62 830K 690K 48.98
Buy Not Hit.
HAR 11/13 Test 18 126.06 +1.86 125.28 133.55 662K 325K 122.88
Current.
HSIC 11/09 Flat 65.4 +0.07 64.02 73.62 418K 494K 64.05
Buy Not Issued.
IGT 09/16 Rv H&S 32.51 -0.61 29.05 34.55 1.3M 4.7M 32.75
Current.
JAH 09/06 Cup hdl 41.3 -1.15 38.39 45.75 113K 270K 41.12
Current.
KLAC 11/06 Dbl btm 56.44 -0.63 61.06 73 9.4M 12M 58.45
Buy Not Issued.
KSWS 11/09 Test BO 43.85 +0.95 43.28 49.85 140K 225K 42.22
Current.
MDCC 11/12 DB hdl 19.47 +0.2 19.82 23.78 59K 87K 18.72
Buy Not Issued.
MDS 11/09 Cup 14.16 +0.26 14.28 17.21 79K 120K 13.63
Current.
MGAM 11/15 Test BO 42.72 -0.08 42.44 50 672K 834K 41.44
Current.
MIK 11/04 A Wedge 47.06 -0.94 49 58.74 438K 873K 47.78
Current.
MIPS 11/01 A Wedge 5.38 -0.43 5.22 6.55 424K 291K 5.62
Exited.
MOBE 09/15 Cup hdl 11 -0.5 8.7 10.88 435K 810K 11.05
Current.
NSIT 11/15 A Wedge 17.32 -0.86 19.06 22.88 470K 819K 17.94
Buy Not Hit.
NSM 09/17 BO 40.14 -1.03 35.35 42 4.7M 5M 41.72
Current.
NVLS 11/11 Test BO 42.6 +0.36 43.95 52 5.4M 8.5M 41.97
Current.
ORLY 08/19 Flat 41.88 +0.01 39.48 47.05 157K 350K 42.05
Current.
PIR 11/09 Test BO 25.22 -0.43 25.7 30.62 827K 1.6M 25.05
Current.
PLXT 11/03 A Wedge 9.5 +0.24 8.81 10.96 90K 222K 9.02
Current.
QCOM 11/05 Test BO 46.72 -0.68 48.12 57.25 7.4M 14M 45.72
Buy Not Issued.
RI 09/30 Cup hdl 28.42 -0.68 27.72 33 482K 750K 28.44
ROST 11/11 Rv H&S 52.6 -0.14 54.25 65 694K 1.2M 52.34
Buy Not Issued.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 31.71 -0.36 30.35 36.75 3.5M 6M 31.55
Current.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 31.71 -0.36 26.3 30.94 3.5M 6M 31.55
Current.
SCSS 11/11 Test 50 26.11 -1.73 29.22 35 1.2M 1M 28.96
Buy Not Hit.
SOHU 10/24 Dbl btm 31.51 +0.37 37.69 45 4.5M 9M 34.85
Current.
SONS 11/13 A Wedge 8.79 -0.31 9.48 11.55 5.5M 6.8M 8.77
Buy Not Issued.
STLW 11/04 DB hdl 6.23 -0.3 6.37 7.95 57K 132K 6.34
Exited.
SWIR 11/15 Cup 18.74 -0.01 19.12 23 1.3M 1M 17.44
Buy Not Hit.
SYK 09/20 Flat 80.65 -0.65 78.97 90.25 446K 1.1M 80.99
Exited.
TARO 10/08 Cup hdl 66.19 +0.25 61.51 73 287K 501K 64.88
Current.
TIWI 10/16 Cup hdl 7.92 +0.13 5.57 7 702K 350K 7.55
Current.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 40.36 -0.45 28.06 31.44 460K 494K 39.94
Current.
TSCO 07/05 Test 50 40.36 -0.45 26.62 30 460K 500K 39.94
Current.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 40.36 -0.45 23.42 27.62 460K 603K 39.94
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 40.36 -0.45 21.88 26 460K 603K 39.94
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 40.36 -0.45 19.3 22.19 460K 577K 39.94
Current.
TVIA 11/04 Cup hdl 2.74 +0.07 2.62 3.34 472K 219K 2.38
Current.
TXCC 11/11 Test 18 3.07 -0.13 3.38 4.42 1.4M 2.2M 3.12
Buy Not Issued.
ULGX 11/13 DB hdl 5.64 +0.01 5.94 7.45 32K 130K 5.32
Buy Not Hit.
UOPX 11/03 Test 50 68.65 -2.55 71.12 84 303K 315K 69.85
Current.
UOPX 10/25 Test 50 68.65 -2.55 68.95 82 303K 315K 69.85
Current.
URBN 10/18 Rv H&S 35.43 -0.61 33.61 40 727K 953K 34.98
Current.
VAR 10/28 Cup hdl 66.87 -0.4 64.5 74.25 626K 1.1M 65.42
Current.
VARI 11/03 Cup hdl 39.9 +0.79 39.21 46.88 376K 260K 38.38
Current.
XLNX 11/12 DB hdl 35.06 +0.43 34.78 41 9.6M 11M 33.55
Current.
XLNX 11/01 DB hdl 35.06 +0.43 32.68 38.68 9.6M 11M 33.55
Current.
ZBRA 11/15 Test 18 58.91 -0.34 60.74 69.85 317K 693K 59.05
Buy Not Hit.
ZMH 08/09 Test BO 64.18 +0.38 51.12 59.55 857K 3M 62.78
Current.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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