stock split, stock research

Begin Part 2 of 4

THE PLAYS:

BONUS PLAYS: Some great moves by Saturday's bonus plays, with ROOM and BORL breaking out, with ASN still looking ready.

DJX (1/100 Dj Indu--$104.72; -0.32; optionable (DJV):
STATUS: The index showed a reversal doji after coming off a low of 103.85, which is bullish. The doji comes after a 2-day pullback from resistance, the 10 day MVA (106.48), and put the index below its 200 day MVA at 106. Volume was stronger at 1.19 million, just above the average. We are looking for a move up from here with a target of 107-108 (the 50 day MVA and the 18 day MVA converge at the 107.40 range.
BUY POINT: Up from here (or 104 on a pullback on selling after the FOMC) on continued rising volume in a rally.
Stop: 95.68 (8% below 104).
POSITION: September $104 calls to buy (DJV IZ). Please check with your broker for deltas; all options with strikes of $96 and higher (EXCEPT for $102) have sufficient open interests.

OEX (Standard & Poors 100--$629.54; -2.49; optionable (OEY):
STATUS: After a 2-day pullback, showing a reversal doji on strong volume (1.2 million; avg. 1.1 million). The index came up from a low of 623.85 to show the tight doji, and on the bullish reversal we are looking for a move up to the range of the 50 day MVA, 642.
BUY POINT: Up from here on continued rising volume, in a rally. Stop: 579.18.
POSITION: Aggressive: July $625 calls to buy (OEY GE).

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK: Looking at BMET for this Friday.

BEST PLAYS: Besides the plays set forth below best plays, there are some other stocks that also look good. These include Pre-Announcements THQI, CEFT and ATK, and Post-Split JNJ.

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT BEST PLAYS:
1) FITB - Looking for a strong move back up
2) BMET - Got the bounce
3) FISV - Still working on the breakout move
4) KRB - Making the move down
5) FDC - Ready to move
6) THQI - Maybe just a bounce, but it could be a good one

FITB (Fifth Third Bancorp--$61.79; +0.04; optionable): We are still looking for an announcement with earnings on 7-16-01 before the market open.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fitb.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:1 split on 6-20-00 at a stock price of $61. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-20-01 at which time authorized shares were increased.
STATUS: Has gradually pulled back from the big breakout move made last Thursday. It has been orderly, coming with decreasing volume, and today its bottomed at its 10 day MVA (60.91; breakout point was 61.11) before pushing back up. We look for strong stocks to use their breakout levels as support, but also look to the 10 day MVA if in that range. Looking for FITB to make another strong move after having made this test, looking for it to make a new high over the breakout high of 63. Target: 68-70.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move up from here on increased volume near the average (today 1.23 million; average 1.76 million). Stop: 57.46. Breakout: A move over 63 on above average volume. Stop: 58.59.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or August $55 calls to buy (FTQ HK). Breakout: Stock and/or August $60 calls to buy (FTQ HL).

BMET (Biomet--$48.79; +1.65; optionable): Medical equipment. Forecast to announce a split with a board meeting 6-29-01, or on 7-9-01 before the open with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmet.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 7-6-00 at a stock price of $29. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-16-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Looked good yesterday with a doji on support (the 10 day MVA, at 47.03), and today it did not disappoint, charging up to a new closing high (just below the intraday high from last week at 48.95). Volume was up on the move after the light volume pullback, spiking up to 1.6 million (average 1.7 million). Looking for more, as the stock has been quite strong, breaking from a couple of solid ascending wedge patterns, and holding up well between moves. Relative strength broke out again, and the stock shows excellent money flow and buying. Target: 54.
BUY POINT: A move over 49 on increased volume. Stop: 45.57 (18 day MVA at 46.31).
POSITION: Stock and/or October $45 calls to buy (BIQ JI).

FISV (Fiserv--$62.39; +0.35; optionable): We are working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fisv.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 3-25-99 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting. The stock price was $52. FISV's last two splits were announced in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting. The company currently has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: FISV broke out last week, and after a brief pullback toward the 10 day MVA (60.05) it is trying to continue the move. It gapped down with the market to open today, but managed to push back up for a gain, moving on higher volume of 1.4 million (average 1.53 million). This is a solid breakout move over the last week, out of a strong pattern, an ascending wedge formed after a breakout from a cup with handle. The all-time high is at 64.13. Target: 68.
BUY POINT: A move up from here on increased volume. Stop: 58.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $60 calls to buy (FTQ IL).

KRB (MBNA Corp--$32.65; -0.95; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 7-10-01 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm an earnings date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/krb.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 7-14-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $40. KRB is a holding company and does not hold annual shareholder meetings.
STATUS: Continued down today, taking out its recent low at 33 as volume spiked way up on the selling (4.2 million; average 2.4 million). After the sharp drop, it could try a quick test of the 33 level, but on a failure of that move, we can look at additional put positions on a move back down. Target: 29-30.
BUY POINT: A move back down on continued strong selling volume after a failed move back up to the 33 level.
POSITION: August $37.50 puts to buy (KRB TU).

FDC (First Data--$66.80; -0.47; optionable): Working on a forecast date. Earnings were announced on 4-12-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split was a 2 for 1 on 11-18-96 at a stock price of $80. The annual shareholder meeting was on 1-11-01 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: From its rolling range between 64 and 69 FDC has tightened a bit into a pennant pattern. It tried a move Monday but pulled back intraday today to test the 50 day MVA (65.31), a level that has been solid support at the bottom of its range, and then recovered all the way back to close with a doji. Volume shot up to 1.96 million (average 1.52 million), and we will see if the upward momentum continues, looking for a move back up toward the high at 68.85. Target on breakout: 79.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 69 on increased volume. Stop: 64.17 (or just under the 50 day MVA). Aggressive: A strong move up from here on continued strong volume. Stop: (Just below the 50 day MVA).
POSITION: Both buy points: Stock and/or August $65 calls to buy (FDC HM).

THQI (THQ Inc.--$54.77; +2.91; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 7-20-01 in conjunction with the shareholder meeting (earnings 7-26-01).
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thqi.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 10-26-99 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $44. Prior to that announced a 3:2 split on 7-23-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $33. The annual shareholder meeting is on 7-20-01 at which time authorized shares will be increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Has been a strong performer, breaking from a cup with handle in January and making several trend runs since then, going steadily upward. We have been looking for a pullback and possible test of the 50 day MVA (47.52), but the stock bounced up again today after a pullback over the past week from the high of 59.83. Volume increased on the move, coming in at 539,700 (average 631,000), and the stock closed back over its 10 day MVA (54.05). With the Fed announcement tomorrow, we could see it peel back a bit and then rally, and this may be all of the pullback we get. Strong stocks typically test their 50 day MVA's periodically, and we are looking at this as a shorter term move for now up to the 59-60 level.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move over today's high of 55.71 on increased volume. Consolidation: After a consolidation in the 47-50 range, a strong move back up on increased volume.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or September $50 calls to buy (QHI IJ). Consolidation: Stock and/or September $40 or $45 calls to buy (QHI IH or QHI II).

PRE-SPLIT BEST PLAYS: Remember, we try to grab these as they break out of good patterns or as they start a run right before the split. Not looking for home runs, but looking for those $3 to $4 moves running into the split, watching for topping signs and potential resistance. Not huge money, but it can be very steady. We set our initial stops at the 7-8% range below the purchase price (or just below obvious support), and move them up on a move to preserve our profits.
1) LOW - Doji on support. These have been solid lately.
2) USPH - Trying a move

LOW (Lowe's--$75.80; +0.30): Splits 2:1 on July 2.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/low.html
STATUS: Made solid move up last week out of its small ascending wedge (formed as it makes its strong move up along its short-term MVA's after breaking from a cup with handle in May), and has pulled back from its high of 79.72 the last few sessions. After dropping back to support the stock held the 10 day MVA (75.42) with a doji today. We will see if it can hold that support and start another solid move back up. Has been a really good mover pre-split, but we can get some more.
PLAY: A bounce up from here, with stock and/or August $70 calls to buy (LOW HN - under 100 open interest).

USPH (U.S. Physical Therapy--$24.00; +2.25; no options): Health Services. Splits 3:2 effective June 29.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/usph.html
STATUS: Fell out of its pennant pattern, but caught support at its recent low at 20 and is trying to make a recovery. Today it managed a move back up over the 50 day MVA (23.18), which had been the lower boundary of its pennant, and closed right at its 18 day MVA. Splits Friday, so we will see if the momentum can continue, looking for a move up toward the recent pattern high at 26.34.
PLAY: Aggressive: A move up from here, with stock.

CONTINUING CANDIDATE BEST PLAYS: Some puts in here.
1) CECO - Strong moves of late

CECO (Career Education--$59.10; +0.23; no options):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-1-00 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $57. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-11-01 at 1:00 pm CDT at which time additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split without increasing authorized shares.
STATUS: Has been steadily moving up along its 50 day MVA (52.07), and after making a solid move up from that level earlier this month it has followed suit from the shorter-term MVA's (10 day and 18 day at 56.20 and 54.89, respectively). After making a strong bounce Monday, the stock tested back down to 57.21 before recovering for a tight doji. Off of this pattern we could see the stock test back again toward the 10 day MVA, but after that we will look for continued strength up toward our target of 65. The stock shows excellent money flow and buying, and relative strength has broken out.
BUY POINT: A move up on increased volume near the average (182,800; average 252,400) after another test back to the 57-58 range. Stop: 54.
POSITION: Stock only.

POST-SPLIT BEST PLAYS:
1) DGX - Preparing to move again
2) GENZ - Strong intraday recovery
3) FHCC - Breakout move on the split!

DGX (Quest Diagnostics--$69.50; -1.51; optionable): Health services. Split 2:1 June 1.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgx.html
STATUS: Has dipped back a bit since breaking out with a strong gapping move last week, today testing back toward its 10 day MVA (67.42) at its low of 68.01 before recovering a bit to close. Volume remained stout at 662,500 (average 436,200), but the stock is looking good as it holds over that support, which coincides with its gap-up level. Looking for a strong move back up toward the high of 73. Target: 80.
PLAY: Looking for it to hold the 67 level, and on a move up on continued strong volume, with stock and/or August $65 calls to buy (DGX HM).

GENZ (Genzyme--$54.50; +1.98; optionable): Split 2:1 effective 6-4-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
STATUS: Biotechnology. Gapped back below the 50 day MVA (52.48) today but made a strong move back up over that level, closing back over the 10 day (54.12). The 50 day has been strong support although it likewise gapped below that level earlier this month, rebounding on a move that reached 57.32. The high is 58.44. Still looking solid in its May-June range. Target on a breakout: 65.
PLAY: Aggressive: A move over 56 on increased volume (4.2 million today; average 3 million), with stock and/or October $50 calls to buy. Breakout: Over 58.44 on continued strong volume, with stock and/or October $55 calls to buy).

FHCC (First Health--$27.96; +0.88; optionable): Insurance Broker. Splits 2:1 effective 6-26-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fhcc.html
STATUS: Continued its move today on the split, making a new high on volume that increased yet again over the huge volume we have already seen on this move (2.67 million; average 624,000). We will be cautious with positions from here, as stocks generally weaken post-split. Consequently, we can look at 'flipping' this play if the move stalls, although for now it is still strong.
PLAY: Aggressive: A move up from here, with stock and/or October $25 calls to buy (FHQ JE - check deltas, etc.).
* * *
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS REMAINING PLAYS
* * *
CHV (Chevron--$94.70; -0.25; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 7-25-01 before the open in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm the date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chv.html
BACKGROUND: The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-25-01 at which time authorized shares were increased.
STATUS: CHV fell out of a nice-looking ascending wedge last week, and is now trying to hold on to its 50 day MVA (94.47). This week has started with consecutive tight dojis over that support, tapping up to resistance at its 18 day MVA (95.44) at its highs. We will see if it can hold, but will need to see a strong move back up to a new high for positions. There is some time before the forecast.
BUY POINT: Breakout: Over 98.49 on continued strong volume (up to 2.49 million today; average 2.33 million).
POSITION: Stock and/or September $95 calls to buy (CHV IS).

CEFT (Concord EFS--$55.01; -0.67; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 7-25-01 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceft.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 8-26-99 at a stock price of $37. Prior to that announced a 3:2 split on 5-14-98 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-24-01 at 9:30 am CST at which time additional shares will be authorized.
STATUS: A huge move last Thursday out of the little consolidation it had formed at the 50 level (testing its break from a cup with handle), and now the stock is bouncing around a bit. It reached up to 56.70 Monday but pulled back well off of that high to close, a topping sign, but after tapping 54.25 at its low today the stock steadied with a doji. At its low the stock was still comfortably above its 10 day MVA (53.20) and its early June high of 54.50. Holding on well, so we will see if it can hold 54 and continued the move. Solid relative strength and buying. Target: 62.
BUY POINT: After holding the 54 level, a move back over 56 on increased volume (3.83 million; average 4.4 million). Stop: 52.08 (18 day MVA at 52.16).
POSITION: Stock and/or September $50 calls to buy (EQF IJ).

ATK (Alliant Techsystems--$84.69; -0.41; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 8-7-01 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atk.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 11-2-00 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $89. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 8-7-01 at 2:00 pm CT at which time additional shares will be authorized.
STATUS: Has fallen over the edge, running down hard after taking out its 50 day MVA (93.19) last week. It is trying to find support at its April lows and March high in the 85 range, today showing a doji as volume was down but remained strong (239,100; average 185,900). Very weak, and we will see if we get a bounce from this doji, but on a failure in the 87-88 range, we can look at a move back down below 85 on continued strong selling volume for a put play.
BUY POINT: After a relief bounce that takes it back up in the 87-88 range, strong selling back down below 85 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: August $95 puts to buy (ATK TS).

NVDA (Nvidia--$93.75; +2.63; optionable): Semiconductor. Forecast to announce a split on 8-15-01 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting or on 8-13-01 during the market in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
BACKGROUND: The company last announced 5-16-00 after the close with earnings. Price was at $94, but the stock rose $8.74 that day in anticipation.
STATUS: NVDA has made at least four trend runs up its trendline connecting March and May closing lows, but after the last run (which hit up to 100) the stock has pulled back to visit the 50 day MVA (85.72), and is now trying to hold a move back up. Its initial bounce lost steam at the 10 day MVA (91.97), but after gapping down today the stock recovered to close over that mark. Volume was rather low, however, so we will see if it can hold the 10 day for a move back up toward the high.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: After holding the 10 day, a strong move up with a good market over 95, looking for volume near the average (5.38 million; today 3.16 million).
POSITION: Stock and/or September $90 calls to buy (RVU IR).

ADVP (Advancepcs--$62.05; +0.57; optionable): Health services. We are working on a date for this one.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/advp.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 10-12-99 at a stock price of $50. The annual shareholder meeting was on 12-7-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company does not have sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split, but does have sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
STATUS: ADVP has recovered back over its 50 day (59.51) and 18 day MVA (60.94). It was showing signs of a put but got a bit of news and moved up strong Friday, and is now holding the 18 day but is not showing signs of doing much more. It tried intraday moves the last two sessions but pulled back to close as volume drifted down, today light at 369,000 (average 846,400). Not much of a pattern, and a move up would be pure momentum. Relative strength is still solid.
BUY POINT: Aggressive momentum: A move over 65 on increased volume near the average.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $60 calls to buy (QVD IL).

End Part 2 of 4

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