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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good movers Tuesday: DJO; HAR; SWIR
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Upside Leader Plays: These are stocks that have formed up well and can make us money. Not necessarily split stocks, but some can turn into split plays.
Play Date: 11/18/2003
ANLY (Analysts Intl.--$3.28; +0.08; no options): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anly.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. A nice test of the breakout, coming back to tap the 18 day MVA (3.05) intraday and then rallying to post a gain though on lower volume. ANLY broke out of a 13 week cup with handle base 6 sessions back, rallied to 3.50ish, and then makde the current pullback on very light volume. Accumulation in the base is a solid 4 to 2 (4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume). Outstanding money flow and a relative strength breakout. Ready to resume the breakout move.
Volume: 83.091K Avg Volume: 64.863K
BUY POINT: $3.34 Volume=100K Target=$4.35 Stop=$3.15
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anly.html
Play Date: 11/18/2003
NUVO (Nuvelo--$3.64; +0.18; no options): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nuvo.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. Broke out of a 4 month cup base in late September, rallied to 4, and tehn fell back into the current 7 week pattern. It has rallied up the 18 day MVA (3.48), coming back to test thhat level the past week on light volume. Tuesday it rallied up off that support on rising though still very low, below average volume. Accumulation in the current pattern along the 18 day MVA is 3 to 1. Excellent money flow and relative strength ready to breakout. The selling the past week looked like a shakeout, clearing ou the last sellers. It now looks ready to continue the breakout move.
Volume: 374.847K Avg Volume: 670.5K
BUY POINT: $3.81 Volume=1M Target=$4.88 Stop=$3.53
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nuvo.html
Downside:
Play Date: 11/18/2003
ERES (Eresearch Tech--$39.35; -0.14; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eres.html
STATUS: Put. A pre-split that fell on hard times. ERES tanked to the 50 day MVA (39.85) 7 sessions back but managed to retake that level late last week. It stalled out at the 10 and 18 day MVA (42.49) and crashed back through the 50 day. Money flow is in the toilet and ERES is under distribution this month. After a ten bagger it is in need of a deeper consolidation, and we are ready to make some money on the downside as it does. Then when it finishes forming the base we will look at it back on the upside.
Volume: 971.24K Avg Volume: 993.318K
BUY POINT: $38.98 Volume=1.3M Target=$34.88 Stop=$39.94
POSITION: UDB MH - Jan. $40p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eres.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 11/10/2003
CRIS (Curis--$5.47; -0.02; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cris.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Rallying well Tuesday on solid, above average volume, hitting 5.92 on the high. Could not hold the move and rolled over, giving it all back. Still holding up, but has to re-set and try again. CRIS exploded out of a nice, tight 7 week base last week and is testing that move, holding over the 10 day MVA (5.27). Storng money flow and a relative strength breakout. Showing good action, but needs to hold the breakout on the next move.
Volume: 1.494M Avg Volume: 624.409K
BUY POINT: $5.64 Volume=885K Target=$7.05 Stop=$5.15
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cris.html
Play Date: 11/11/2003
TXCC (Transwitch--$3.12; +0.04; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/txcc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. TXCC blasted higher to start the month, moving out of a 6 week base. It has spent the last two weeks moving back to test the breakout, holding the 18 day MVA (3.09) on lower, below average volume. It is holding the breakout, showing a hammer doji at that support level. Solid accumulation. Just being patient for a break higher on strong volume that holds heading into the close.
Volume: 1.422M Avg Volume: 1.881M
BUY POINT: $3.38 Volume=2.2M Target=$4.42 Stop=$3.12
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/txcc.html
Play Date: 11/03/2003
VARI (Varian--$39.35; -0.55; optionable): Scientific & technical Instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vari.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. VARI surged out of a 17 week base to start the month, and has been consolidating that move the past two weeks, making higher lows over the 10 day MVA (38.86) below resustance at 40. The past two sessions volume has jumped higher, Tuesday as it tried to make a move over 40. Looks ready to try the breakout over 40.
Volume: 412.528K Avg Volume: 213.5K
BUY POINT: $39.21 Volume=260K Target=$46.88 Stop=$38.38
POSITION: IUA BG - Feb. $35c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vari.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: We will to look at the stocks in the best patterns for entry points moving into the potential split announcements. We are researching the next date on those that did not announce but are still very strong. Some companies are still gun-shy about announcing splits, but one of the things we love about split plays is that they involve market leaders that make us good money even if they do not announce.
APPB: No split on 10-29-03. Testing the breakout.
AVP: Broke the 18 day MVA and we exited.
CHS: Forecast 12-2-03 after the market closes.
COCO: Forecast 11-20 at a board meeting.
COLM: No split announced on 10-23-03.
COO: Forecast 12-11-03.
CPWM: Forecast 11-20 before the open. Down to the 50 day MVA but holding it thus far.
DG: Forecast 12-4.
FDX: Forecast 12-17-03.
FOSL: No split announced 11-11-03. Testing the nice breakout.
FRED: Forecast 11-20-03. Not doing it.
HSIC: Forecast 11-20-03
KLAC: Forecast 12-12-03.
MIK: Forecast 11-25-03.
ORLY: No split announced 10-28-03 after the close. Auto parts are announcing splits so we are researching the next date.
PDCO: Forecast on 11-20-03. Holding the 18 day MVA on a short pullback.
PIR: Forecast 12-4-03.
RI: Forecast 12-4 in conjunction with a board meeting. Powering higher.
ROST: Forecast 11-18-03 before the market with earnings. No split announced in a wild session. Held the 50 day and bounced.
SYK: No split announced on 10-16-03.
UOPX: Researching the next date.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 11/18/2003
MBG (Mandalay Resort Group--$41.1; -0.31; optionable): Resorts & casinos. Researching the next date, but wanted to get it on the report given the pattern.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mbg.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. MBG is forming the handle to its 8 week base sporting solid 3 to 1 accumulation. This base follows the breakout from a larger 9 month base in June. It held the 50 day MVA (39.55) on the lows of the base, an excellent place for it to hold and form up. Very nice pattern forming on below average volume. Holding the 10 day MVA in the handle, forming up well.
Volume: 748.9K Avg Volume: 1.169M
BUY POINT: $42.58 Volume=1.8M Target=$51 Stop=$40.62
POSITION: MBG CH - Mar. $40c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mbg.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 11/01/2003
COO (Cooper Companies--$43.34; +0.24; optionable): Medical Instruments. Forecast to announce a split on 11-4-03 in conjunction with a board meeting or on 12-11-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company will not confirm the date for the board meeting, but based upon our research this is the date for the meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 11-5-02 in conjunction with a board meeting at a stock price of $52.94. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-25-03 at which time additional shares were authorized.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coo.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Still holding up very nicely in the 11 week base sporting excellent 4 to 0 accumulation. Making a series of higher lows up the 50 day MVA (41.58), and still looks ready to make the breakout.
Volume: 164.3K Avg Volume: 363.409K
BUY POINT: $44.06 Volume=550K Target=$50.88 Stop=$41.95
POSITION: COO BI - Feb. $45c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coo.html
Play Date: 11/12/2003
FOSL (Fossil--$28.9; +0.65; optionable): Watches, shoes, fashion accessories. No split announced on 11-11-03 in conjunction with earnings but a nice breakout.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-14-02 in conjunction with a board meeting at a stock price of $27.70. the annual shareholder meeting was on 5-21-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fosl.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Held the 18 day MVA (27.65) on the Monday low, rebounded and added some to that gain Tuesday on rising, average volume. Nice move, giving the test we were looking for. It closed well off of the high (29.44), however, so we were reluctant to move in with the selling market. Overall it looks quite good compared to the rest of the market, and on a further move higher on volume we will look at additional positions. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the 11 week base. Strong money flow. Again, excellent earnings, and FOSL could pop off a split announcement this week as stocks often like to announce after earnings are out to see how the performance is after the results.
Volume: 234.786K Avg Volume: 242.09K
BUY POINT: New: 29.12 (orig. $28.75). Volume=369K Target=$33.55 Stop=$27.85
POSITION: QFS LE - Dec. $25c (81 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fosl.html
Play Date: 11/15/2003
MGAM (Multimedia Games--$44.11; +1.39; optionable): Gaming supplies to Native American gaming market. Forecast to announce a split on 11-24-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 1-14-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $36.5. The annual shareholder meeting was on 2-18-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mgam.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Started up off of the 10 day MVA test (42.19) Tuesday, though volume remained below average. Still like the action following MGAM's breakout from its 2 month base in late September. As noted this weekend, these early tests of the breakout are excellent entry points. Huge money flow and a strong relative strength breakout. Still a buy on a further move higher on more volume.
Volume: 535.378K Avg Volume: 568.59K
BUY POINT: New: $44.95 (orig. $42.12) Volume=834K Target=$50 Stop=$40.55
POSITION: QMG AH - Jan. $40c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mgam.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 11/06/2003
APA (Apache--$71.34; -0.16; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Splits 2:1 on a date to be announced.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apa.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. APA has formed up a nice little 7 week base, currently forming the handle over the 10 day MVA (70.89), showing a doji on the candlestick pattern Tuesday. Accumulation in the short base is 2 to 1. Looking for the next break higher on average or better volume.
Volume: 1.22M Avg Volume: 1.287M
BUY POINT: $70.38 Volume=1.8M Target=$75.55 Stop=$70.21
POSITION: APA AN - Jan. $70c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/apa.html
Play Date: 11/09/2003
KSWS (K-Swiss--$43.87; +0.02; optionable): Athletic shoes and apparel. Splits 2:1 on a date to be announced.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/ksws.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still working laterally over the 18 day MVA (42.95) and below 44, moving on below average volume. Money flow is moving up even as KSWS moves laterally. Because it is holding up so well relative strength is moving back up for the next breakout. Looks solid.
Volume: 113.988K Avg Volume: 184.227K
BUY POINT: New: $44.15 (orig. $43.28) Volume=225K Target=$49.85 Stop=$42.22
POSITION: SWU AH - Jan. $40c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ksws.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 09/16/2003
IGT (International Game Technology--$32.52; +0.01; optionable): Video poker, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. Waiting for the move, holding at the 18 day MVA (32.46) in a tight range. Volume continues to fade as it does, showing a doji Tuesday. Money flow continues to move up ahead of price and relative strength is rising as the stock holds up while the market fades. Waiting, but being patient for that higher volume break up off of this level.
Volume: 1.076M Avg Volume: 2.509M
BUY POINT: New: 33.55 (orig. $29.05) Volume=4.7M Target=$39 (orig. positions $34.55) Stop=$32.75
POSITION: IGT AY - Jan. $27.50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/igt.html
Play Date: 11/15/2003
ZBRA (Zebra Technologies--$59.15; +0.24; optionable): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zbra.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still testing the breakout from its 3 month trading range in October, ZBRA showed a very tight doji Tuesday, holding the 10 day MVA (59.14) as volume spiked back to above average levels. Volume has really picked up the past week, indicating that ZBRA is trying to make the next move. Money flow continues to rise even as the stock moves laterally, and relative strength is rising as well given it is holding up as the market sells off. Positive accumulation in the range. Now all it needs to do is make the breakout on continued strong volume.
Volume: 724.741K Avg Volume: 480.818K
BUY POINT: $60.74 Volume=693K Target=$69.85 Stop=$59.05
POSITION: ZBQ BL - Feb. $60c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zbra.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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