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yahoo stock, us stock market
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information.
Best Plays: Forget topping out: TUTR headed higher on stronger volume today.
Today's action set up several stocks for moves if we get a rally. Other stocks looking good but not covered tonight: THQI, BMET, ADVS, PSFT, and NVDA. Of formerly covered stocks, look at QLGC on its solid move, and COO, which looks ready to break out of its cup with handle.
Best Plays:
1) ADBE: Set up for a rally.
2) RCII: Ready to move up after testing support.
3) BBBY: A strong move!
A previously covered stock:
QLGC (Qlogic--$57.74; +2.79; optionable (QLC): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
STATUS: We looked at this stock in early June for a covered call play. The stock made a move up to resistance at 60 and then fell back to support at the 50 day MVA, making the call sale and buy back (or expiration) possible. It is now moving back up to that resistance. Today QLGC made a good move up on strong volume (7.1 million; avg. 6.1 million), up from the 10 day MVA (54.33). The stock is headed for potential resistance at the 61 level; if it can make it over that, look for a run up to the 200 day MVA (67.44). Otherwise, a stall at that level can mean a turn back down, and those who bought around 50 can look at selling calls on the stock for another round.
BUY POINT: Upside: Aggressive: Up from here on continued strong volume. Stop: 53.12 (10 day MVA, 53.35). Safer: Break over resistance at 61. Covered call: On a move back down from the 60 range (59-61) on strong volume.
POSITION: Upside: Stock and/or October $55 calls to buy (QLC JK). Covered Call: October $55 or $60 calls to sell (QLC JK and QLC JL, respectively).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/qlgc.html
THE PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that are looking as if they are ready to pick up a few shares. We are "weeding" the portfolios this weekend.
THE LEADERS: We have revamped this portfolio, dropping for now CPN, SGR, NATI and BRKS. Those stocks have, for the most part, dropped off and need to form bases or do some more work in ones already existing. To the New Leader section we are adding DGX, EBAY, FRX, PSFT, ADVS, and BMET. In the Previous Leader section, VRSN, VRTS, ADBE and SEBL are retained. Ones dropped include AMCC, ARBA, BEAS, BRCD, CIEN, EMC, EXTR, GLW, JNPR, NEWP, NTAP, PMCS and SCMR. All of these stocks will be kept on watch in context with improvement in their sectors and the market.
New Leaders: ESRX, LLL, ACS, NVDA, DGX, EBAY, FRX, PSFT, ADVS, BMET
Previous Leaders: ADBE, SEBL, VRSN, VRTS
PSFT inched up on stronger volume today, moving up from the doji as expected. BMET made a strong move and looks ready to break over the resistance noted in last night's report. ADVS made a strong move up today, and may be ready to break over its buy point (see the 6-21 report). NVDA moved up on stronger volume.
ADBE (Adobe--$44.65; +0.13; optionable (AEQ): Application Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adbe.html
STATUS: The stock moved back over its shorter term down trendline (connecting the April and May highs) Monday, and held the position for a small move up today after catching support at the 10 day MVA (43.40). Volume was higher at 2.8 million (avg. 4.3 million). ADBE is in a kind of ranging/flat base pattern with dips near 38, and looks set to make a stronger move in a market rally. That is what we anticipate, looking for an entry point on a move over resistance just below 46. The stock has moved in this pattern since mid-April; at that time the stock was trying to form a handle to a cup base, but the market held that in check. However, ADBE has shown good resilience by forming this pattern, using that 38 level for support. Solid money flow and decent buying. Target: 200 day MVA, 52.79.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 46 on volume at average or better. Stop: 42.32 (18 day MVA, 42.73).
POSITION: Stock and/or October $40 calls to buy (AEQ JH).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/adbe.html
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: We have revamped the Up & Comers portfolio, and are dropping EXDS, TQNT, BVSN, SANM, PKI and GMST for now, adding BBBY, IGT, RCII, CHS, KG and AEOS.
LNCR, BJ, ANF, LOW, HI, THQI, BBBY, IGT, RCII, CHS, KG, AEOS.
THQI is moving up on stronger volume today after testing its 18 day MVA. LOW and BJ both showed a doji at support as volume dropped back; they can make a move up from here. Watch IGT: it is looking ready to move as well after testing its 50 day MVA.
RCII (Rent A Center--$49.05; +0.68; optionable (RQG): Diversified Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rcii.html
STATUS: Hit support after pulling back on lower volume and it's been an orderly pullback of the type we like to see. The stock tested on the low of 47.90 the 18 day MVA (47.96), then moved back through its opening price of 48.36 to close on top of the 10 day MVA. Volume was marginally higher at 174,800 (avg. 458,000). The 18 day supported the stock for its last bounce, so we are looking for similar action here. Looks ready! Great buying. Target: $55.
BUY POINT: On a move up from here on volume of 200,000 or more. Stop: 45.13 (50 day MVA, 44.58).
POSITION: Stock and/or September $45 (99 open interests) or $50 calls to buy (RQG II or IJ).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rcii.html
BBBY (Bed Bath & Beyond--$30.69; +0.82; optionable (BHQ): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbby.html
STATUS: BBBY has been in a nice uptrend since hitting a bottom on the March 2000 low of 11. The 50 day MVA (currently at 29.13) has served as solid support in that uptrend, and today the stock tapped it on the low of 29.02 and bounced, moving through the opening price of 29.73 and then resistance, the 10 and 18 day MVAs (the former higher at 30.27). Volume was sharply higher at 7 million (avg. 3.4 million), supporting this move up, which comes after a 3-day pullback from the June high of 32.61. Looking for the move to continue. The stock shows good money flow, and relative strength is out ahead of price, a bullish sign. Initial target: $35.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Up from here on continued strong volume. Stop: 28.23 (50 day MVA, 29.13). New high: Over 32.61 on continued strong volume. Stop: 30 (just below the 10 day MVA).
POSITION: Stock and/or August $27.50 calls to buy (BHQ HY).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bbby.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: BRCM, CHKP, CSCO, EMLX, IDTI, INTC, JDSU, MVSN, NT, PWER, SUNW, VTSS
Time or a new survey on what stocks members want in the portfolio. Let us know with an email, and we will compile the stocks with the most suggestions!
INDEXES: On index plays, please check with your broker for deltas (we like 0.75 or better). We are bullish tonight!
DJX (1/100 Dj Indu--$104.72; -0.32; optionable (DJV):
STATUS: The index showed a reversal doji after coming off a low of 103.85, which is bullish. The doji comes after a 2-day pullback from resistance, the 10 day MVA (106.48), and put the index below its 200 day MVA at 106. Volume was stronger at 1.19 million, just above the average. We are looking for a move up from here with a target of 107-108 (the 50 day MVA and the 18 day MVA converge at the 107.40 range.
BUY POINT: Up from here (or 104 on a pullback on selling after the FOMC) on continued rising volume in a rally.
Stop: 95.68 (8% below 104).
POSITION: September $104 calls to buy (DJV IZ). Please check with your broker for deltas; all options with strikes of $96 and higher (EXCEPT for $102) have sufficient open interests.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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yahoo stock
us stock market
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