stock split, stock research

Begin Part 3 of 4

PRE-SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS: With these stocks we keep an eye out, waiting for the start of a pre-split run.

MTON (Metro One--$60.14; -0.51; optionable): Telecom. Splits 3:2 effective June 29.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mton.html
STATUS: Has been trending up steadily since breaking from a cup with handle in April, riding its short-term MVA's (10 and 18 day at 57.13 and 54.95, respectively). The stock made yet another move up from the 10 day Monday, following up with a doji today after reaching back to 58.05 at its low. The stock has made quite a move on momentum, but it appears due to test back toward its 50 day MVA (47.96). We will see if the stock can hold the 10 day on a pullback, and the aggressive can try a final move up from there going into the split. One we are looking at to flip to the downside post-split if we get weakness. However, for now it is strong, with big relative strength and money flow.
PLAY: Aggressive: On a move up from the 10 day after another test of that level, with stock and/or August $55 calls to buy (KQM HK).

KG (King Pharmaceuticals--$54.57; +1.74; optionable): Splits 4:3 on or about July 19.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kg.html
STATUS: Held support on the pullback (from its high of 57.88) toward the lows in its recent handle, bouncing back up today on increased volume (1.13 million; average 1.12 million). Not the same level of volume we saw on the recent pullback, or on the buying that preceded the pullback, so we will see if the move develops any more strength, or if the stock needs to consolidate a bit before making a pre-split run. When a stock has made such a solid run as KG did going into the announcement, we will look for the stock to pullback to near support and then start a strong move. Target: 64-65.
PLAY: On a move over 55 on increased volume, stock and/or August $50 calls to buy (KG HJ).

CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.

ACF (Americredit--$50.85; +0.26; optionable): Credit Services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acf.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-18-98 at a stock price of $35. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-7-00 at which time no authorized shares were increased. The company does not have sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split, but does have sufficient shares for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: ACF is trying to make a move back up from the 50 day MVA (47.21), but has slowed and turned a bit laterally after climbing over its 18 day MVA (49.83). The stock has now shown several consecutive dojis over the 18 day, edging slightly up as it moves. Not great action, but there has been some volume on some of the sessions, including today which saw it spike up to 1.65 million (average 1 million). ACF has been very strong over the past year, forming a base-on-base pattern (consecutive cups with handle), and recently hit a high of 55. We will see if it can move from here.
BUY POINT: After holding support at the 18 day, a move back over 52.50 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $50 calls to buy (ACF HJ).

ASFC (Astoria Financial--$56.00; -0.76; optionable): Savings and Loan.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asfc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split its stock in 1996 with the split at a price of $56. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-16-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: ASFC made a promising rally last week, reaching up to pattern highs at 58.55, but has pulled back down hard the last three sessions. Today it dropped back through its 50 day MVA (56.32), with volume that continued to be strong (down to 484,400; average 359,000). We will see if it again catches support just above 55, as it has the last two trips down. It is cannot, it could be headed back toward lows in the 52 range. It has been in promising patterns, first a saucer and then a handle that turned into something of a double bottom, but it cannot sustain a move. Nothing for now.

CBH (Commerce Bancorp--$69.10; +1.00; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbh.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 5:4 split on 6-29-98. The stock price was $54.63. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-20-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has insufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: CBH is holding on to support at its 50 day MVA (67.57) since pushing back over that level last week, and today managed a bit more of a move up. However, it does not inspire confidence, although with the move up it is trying to overcome its recent head and shoulders pattern. We had been looking at a put as the stock had moved down in the right shoulder and consolidated under the 50 day, but now it is in an ambiguous pattern and we are not jumping in at the moment on a move in either direction. We will see if it shows its hand; it is still well within split range.

CHBS (Christopher & Banks--$32.28; -0.56; optionable): No announcement this week.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chbs.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 stock split on 1-17-01 at a price of $34. Before that CHBS also had 3:2 splits in July of 2000 at $35 and in December 1999 at $26.
STATUS: Is now struggling after taking a fall back from its May high at 47.50. It made a bit of a move up with earnings last Thursday, but is having trouble with its 10 day MVA (33.37), dipping back down from there the last few sessions. It has a ways to go before we are interested, although still in split range. Nothing for now.

IGT (International Game Technology--$61.59; -0.21; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research, it does not appear that IGT has ever announced a split. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-5-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: IGT tapped down to 60.51 today, near its recent low and 50 day MVA (59.64), but managed to recover intraday to close with a tight doji. It has pulled back somewhat steadily after making a new high of 66.04 (on two solid moves up since breaking from its cup with handle in May). Not a promising pattern at the moment, so we will see if it can hold and make a move back up over recent highs. Still shows decent relative strength and buying.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over last week's high of 64.72 on above average volume (up today to 751,600; average 792,400). Stop: 60.19. Breakout: Over 66.04 on above average volume. Stop: 61.42. We will use care with stops on any move.
POSITION: Both buy points: Stock and/or July $60 calls to buy (IGT GL).

KMP (Kinder Morgan--$69.35; +1.04):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmp.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that KMP has ever split its stock. KMP is a master limited partnership and therefore does not have annual shareholder meetings.
STATUS: Has been consolidating on its 50 day MVA (68.50), having gradually pulled back off of its high of 73.98. KMP has been an excellent performer, and has made slow, healthy pullbacks and consolidations on its 50 day before when making its solid move over the past year. It moved back up over the 50 day today, closing up on the 18 day (recent resistance at 69.24), moving on volume that has been typically low of late (115,000; average 135,000). It has to come back with something sustained, but the oil and gas sector is just not as strong as it was.
BUY POINT: A move back over 72 on above average volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $70 calls (KMP FN).

MERQ (Mercury Interactive--$53.71; +1.34; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/merq.html
STATUS: Has fallen back out of its recent range, and a climb back last week could not get past resistance at the 10 day MVA (55.91; 50 day ahead at 59.94). The stock pulled back to its recent low at 50 late last week, but took a bounce back up with the market after having gapped down to open. Volume was up at 3.73 million (average 4.5 million), but it has a lot to overcome to the upside. We will see if, in more market weakness, the stock drops back through the recent low.
BUY POINT: In a weak market, a move through 50 on increased volume near the average. On a move below 50, we can look at plenty of room on a move down with the market.
POSITION: August $65 puts to buy (RQB TM).

MIKE (Michaels Stores--$37.62; -1.06; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mike.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that MIKE has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-13-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: MIKE continued its drop today, pulling back below its recent handle low and its breakout point (38.22), selling on increased volume (260,500; average 221,100). Had been looking good in its pattern, but demonstrates why we do not buy prematurely as a failed move at the breakout can turn ugly. This is not horrible yet, but we will need to see a strong move back up, perhaps after tapping at its 50 day MVA (36.73).
BUY POINT: Over 40.92 on volume of 330,000. Stop: 38.05.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $35 calls to buy (IKQ IF).

MMM (Minnesota Mining--$115.00; -0.69):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mmm.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 3-15-94 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $102. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-8-01 at 10:00 am CT at which time no additional shares will be authorized.
STATUS: Was in a promising consolidation, but dropped back last week, taking out its 50 day MVA (117.58). We have been looking at a put play since, and the stock has tried to make moves back on the 50 day but has failed; however, the selling back has not been as hard as we have been looking for. Today the stock gapped down, but after hitting up to 116.66 it pulled back to closed with a perfect doji as volume pushed up to 2.3 million (average 2.06 million). Off of this pattern it looks like another try at the 50 day, and we will again look for a move back down after a failed move. The stock hit 114.65 at its low today, and our initial target on a downside play would be the 200 day MVA, at 107.34.
BUY POINT: After a failed move at the 50 day, selling back below 114.65 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: August $125 puts to buy (MMM TE).

End Part 3 of 4

stock split
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