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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: CASY; TMWD (bonus alert); MERQ
Best Plays:
1) NVLS: Big volume after testing lower on the breakout.
2) TTEC: Rallying off the test on strong volume.
3) AMXC: Ready if the chips can make the move.
4) FALC: Beautiful breakout test.
5) QADI: Holding the 10 day MVA on low volume. Very nice.
6) TLAB: Moving up off the 18 day MVA on rising trade.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/19/2003
NVLS (Novellus Systems--$42.73; +1.62; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvls.html
STATUS: Test breakout. NVLS blasted out of a 5 month flat base in late October and rallied well until the market was hit with the recent choppiness. It fell back this week, undercutting the 18 day MVA (42.06) Tuesday, but on low volume. It rallied sharply Wednesday on the strongest volume in 3 weeks. Looks as if the breakout test is over and NVLS is ready to continue the move. That is what the volume looks to be telling us. We want to jump on as it continues the rally.
Volume: 9.723M Avg Volume: 7.447M
BUY POINT: $43.38 Volume=10M Target=$51 Stop=$41.88
POSITION: NLQ CA - Mar. $42.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nvls.html
Play Date: 11/19/2003
TTEC (Teletech Holdings--$9.84; +0.64; optionable): Management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttec.html
STATUS: Test breakout. TTEC shot out of an 11 month cup with handle base to start the month, surging from 7 to 10. it has come back to test the move, holding the 10 day MVA (8.95) on the Monday and Tuesday lows. Wednesday it was rallying well on sharply rising volume. It held the high on the left side of the base at 9 on this test and jumped from there. That is a sign there is a lot of life in the stock. Looking at positions on a further move on continued strong volume.
Volume: 1.092M Avg Volume: 439.727K
BUY POINT: $10.02 Volume=660K Target=$12.05 Stop=$9.32
POSITION: QTC DB - Apr. $10c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ttec.html
Play Date: 11/19/2003
TQNT (Triquent Semiconductor--$7.8; +0.2; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tqnt.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. TQNT broke out of an 11 month base in early November, rallying to 8.74. During the market choppiness the past two weeks it has come back to test that move, and volume for the most part has been well below average. It has tapped 7.50 the past two sessions, right at the November 2002 high where the base started. This is where it should hold and start the next leg higher after this breakout test.
Volume: 1.974M Avg Volume: 2.393M
BUY POINT: $8.04 Volume=3M Target=$9.75 Stop=$7.68
POSITION: TQN BU - Feb. $7.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tqnt.html
Play Date: 11/19/2003
TRFX (Traffix--$5; +0.15; no options): Marketing services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trfx.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. TRFX has come to life the past three months. It started with the breakout from an 8 month base in October. It has rallied well, peaking recently at 5.45. It has spent this week pulling back to test the move, easing back on lower and lower volume after yet another big breakout on volume last Friday. Wednesday it was moving back up but no volume. Looking for some above average trade on a continued move to step in as it continues the breakout move.
Volume: 80.706K Avg Volume: 80K
BUY POINT: $5.14 Volume=135K Target=$6.48 Stop=$4.76
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/trfx.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/05/2003
AMXC (AMX Corp.--$6.21; +0.21; no options): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amxc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. AMXC is still working laterally over the 18 day MVA (5.90) on mostly below average volume. This is a much better handle formation to its 12 week cup with handle base. Money flow remains outstanding as the stock works laterally and slightly lower, and relative strength is excellent as well. It has set up well during this pullback ready to breakout when the market makes its next move.
Volume: 31.97K Avg Volume: 113.727K
BUY POINT: New: $6.65 (orig. $6.27) Volume=151K Target=$8.12 Stop=$6.04
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amxc.html
Play Date: 11/17/2003
ASF (Administaff--$14.34; +0.34; optionable): Staffing and outsourcing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asf.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. ASF continues to work laterally over the 10 day MVA (13.90) after surging out of a 3.5 month base to start the month when it received good news regarding a lawsuit settelement. It rallied to 15, and is making a nice, low volume and orderly test over the 10 day. Accumulation in the base was a solid 4 to 2 (4 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume), settign a solid foundation for the breakout. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout. Waiting for the next volume move.
Volume: 230.6K Avg Volume: 381K
BUY POINT: $14.52 Volume=400K Target=$17.85 Stop=$13.72
POSITION: ASF DC - Apr. $15c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/asf.html
Play Date: 10/30/2003
FALC (Falconstar Software--$8.08; +0.03; optionable): Data storage devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/falc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. FALC looks very good in this low volume pullback to the 18 day MVA (7.87), testing the breakout from a 17 week cup with handle base. It broke out in early November, and is making this nice test the past two weeks. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout. Setting up well, so just waiting for a strong move higher on above average volume.
Volume: 79.65K Avg Volume: 184.181K
BUY POINT: New: $8.48 (orig. $8.04) Volume=230K Target=$9.65 Stop=$8.02
POSITION: XMQ BU - Feb. $7.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/falc.html
Play Date: 11/17/2003
KEYN (Keynote Systems--$12; +0.1; optionable): Testing & management systems for ebusiness applications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/keyn.html
STATUS: Flat base. Surged Tuesday on soild volume, but then reversed the entire move. It held its ground Wednesday at the 18 day MVA (11.83) and started back up, but volume remained below average. It held its 8 week flat base between 11.50 and 12, a good sign on the reversal. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume) in the base, setting the foundation for a strong breakout. Excellent money flow and relative strength breaking out on the move.
Volume: 84.29K Avg Volume: 90.09K
BUY POINT: $12.31 Volume=200K Target=$14.85 Stop=$11.71
POSITION: NKU DB - Apr. $10c (90 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/keyn.html
Play Date: 11/17/2003
KLIC (Kulicke & Soffa--$16.64; +0.31; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/klic.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still working laterally over the 18 day MVA (15.58) after breaking out of an 18 month base in late October. Volume surged as it rallied to 17 and then started this lateral 2 week move on lower volume (though still quite strong). Volume has backed off after huge early week volume. It is well positioned if the chips take off again. Surging money flow and and a relative strength breakout.
Volume: 913.736K Avg Volume: 1.517M
BUY POINT: $17.22 Volume=2.2M Target=$21.12 Stop=$15.98
POSITION: KQS DW - Apr. $17.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/klic.html
Play Date: 11/11/2003
LTXX (LTX--$15.3; +0.23; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/ltxx.html
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. After a breakout last Thursday, LTXX was caught in the market pullback this week, falling back on lower volume to test and hold the 18 day MVA (14.88). A solid base with great money flow and relative strength. Looking for the next volume move to move into new or additional positions.
Volume: 577.883K Avg Volume: 860.181K
BUY POINT: $16.68 Volume=1.2M Target=$19.85 Stop=$15.51
POSITION: UXT BC - Feb. $15c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ltxx.html
Play Date: 11/12/2003
QADI (QAD, Inc.--$13.19; +0.18; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qadi.html
STATUS: Flat base. QADI made the breakout move last Thursday on a huge volume surge. It has edged back slightly in the selling this week, but did so on very low volume and has held the 10 day MVA (12.83), tapping at that level on the intraday lows and rebounding nicely. Surging money flow and a realtive strength breakout make the pattern even more savory. Looking for the next above average volume move through the buy point to enter.
Volume: 123.349K Avg Volume: 217.181K
BUY POINT: $13.54 Volume=298K Target=$16.22 Stop=$12.44
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qadi.html
Play Date: 11/10/2003
TLAB (Tellabs--$8.23; +0.28; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tlab.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Exploded higher 6 sessions back on big volume, but then fell back this week on lower trade. It tapped and held the 18 day MVA (7.84) on the Wednesday intraday low and rebounded on much stronger, though slightly below average volume. Money flow is surging. Ready for the next move.
Volume: 3.932M Avg Volume: 4.616M
BUY POINT: New: $8.42 (orig. $8.27) Volume=6M Target=$9.88 Stop=$7.86
POSITION: TEQ CU - Mar. $7.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tlab.html
Play Date: 11/15/2003
ZILA (Zila--$3.99; +0.01; no options): Drug products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zila.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Continues to work in the handle of the 9 week base, moving on low, below average volume. Excellent 4 to 0 accumulation in the 8 week base. It is showing excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout. Looks ready.
Volume: 118.602K Avg Volume: 136.363K
BUY POINT: $4.19 Volume=185K Target=$5.35 Stop=$3.87
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/zila.html
Downside:
Play Date: 11/10/2003
ARDI (At Road, Inc.--$12.29; +0.43; optionable): Computer ITS
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ardi.html
STATUS: Put. Has made the test of the 10 day MVA (12.42), the resistance point in the downtrend. Now we look for it to turn over and fall on stronger volume.
Volume: 682.772K Avg Volume: 693.045K
BUY POINT: New: $12.12 on the way back down. Volume=1M Target=$10.06 Stop=$12.98
POSITION: UDH MV - Jan. $12.50p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ardi.html
Play Date: 11/15/2003
PFGC (Performance Food Group--$38.85; +0.15; optionable): Wholesale food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfgc.html
STATUS: Put. Stilll right below the 18 day MVA and 50 day MVA (39.07) on low volume. Still distributing and weak money flow. Need to see voluem ramp up as it heads back down to move into positions.
Volume: 251.391K Avg Volume: 386.09K
BUY POINT: $38.58 Volume=450K Target=$36.05 Stop=$39.12
POSITION: PGU XH - Dec. $40p (-64 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pfgc.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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