|
|
us stock market, stock trading site
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
New Pre-Split plays: We cull through the stocks coming up for splits and pick the best technical patterns that are ready to buy into, looking for the strong momentum move and then taking the gain and moving on.
Play Date: 11/20/2003
EDMC (Education Management--$63.93; -0.23; optionable): Education & training. Splits 2:1 on 2-23-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/edmc.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. Another solid education stock, EDMC is just coming off a move to 66 after a low volume move out of an 8 week double bottom with handle pattern. Accumulation in the base is positive at 2 to 1. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout. It has come back to test the 18 day (63.61) on lower volume, showing a doji at that level. Looking for it to jump up off this level on rising volume.
Volume: 258.776K Avg Volume: 321.318K
BUY POINT: $64.75 Volume=375K Target=$75.45 Stop=$63.22
POSITION: UKN CM - Mar. $65c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/edmc.html
Play Date: 11/20/2003
PX (Praxair--$67.79; +0.12; optionable): Chemicals. Splits 2:1 on 12-16.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/px.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. PX exploded off the 50 day MVA (66.83) in late October shooting up to 70 on strong volume. It has spent the past two weeks easing back to test the 50 day MVA again, showing a doji that tapped that level on the Thursday low. Volume edged higher as it did, and that is often an indication the stock is ready to make a rebound as big money comes in to support the stock. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout. Like these 50 day MVA tests..
Volume: 778.7K Avg Volume: 826.227K
BUY POINT: $68.72 Volume=950K Target=$77.45 Stop=$66.82
POSITION: PX AM - Jan. $65c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/px.html
Play Date: 11/20/2003
ROST (Ross Stores--$52.59; +0.99; optionable): Apparel stores. Splits 3:1 on 12-19-03.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rost.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. ROST came through though a couple of days late. No complaints, however, as it has come back to test the 50 day MVA (51.03). Thursday it was moving off that level and over the short term MVA on rising, above average volume. Relative strength is already making the move toward the breakout. Looks good. Will have to take out 54, but willing to move in on more volume from this point.
Volume: 985.843K Avg Volume: 816.318K
BUY POINT: $53.06 Volume=1M Target=$61 Stop=$50.97
POSITION: REQ BJ - Feb. $50c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rost.html
Upside Leader Plays: These are stocks that have formed up well and can make us money. Not necessarily split stocks, but some can turn into split plays.
Play Date: 11/20/2003
ECSI (Endocardial Solutions--$6.96; +0.19; no options): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ecsi.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. ECSI exploded out of a 4 month flat base in late October, surging to 7, testing the 18 day MVA (now at 6.63) on the first test. It rallied again on strong volume up to 6.50, and is now making the next test of the 18 day MVA. That is still early in the run as stocks tend to test the 10 or 18 day MVA 4 to 5 times after the breakout. Excellent accumulation in the base at 6 to 0 (6 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume). Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout.
Volume: 73.8K Avg Volume: 147.409K
BUY POINT: $7.12 Volume=221K Target=$8.62 Stop=$6.62
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ecsi.html
Play Date: 11/20/2003
VECO (Veeco Instruments--$28.66; +1.76; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/veco.html
STATUS: Breakout. Completed an acquisition and received an upgrade and blasted off out of a short 5 week triangle sporting excellent 3 to 0 accumulation (3 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume). Volume was huge on the move and relative strength broke out as well, an indication of the strength of the move. Looing for more upside from here to move into positions.
Volume: 1.376M Avg Volume: 541.09K
BUY POINT: $28.94 Volume=812K Target=$34.72 Stop=$26.91
POSITION: QVC DE - Apr. $25c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/veco.html
Downside:
Play Date: 11/20/2003
QQQ (QQQ Options--$33.88; -0.32; optionable): Nasdaq 100 Trust
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qqq.html
STATUS: Put. QQQ may be trying to consolidate, but it has been distributing while overall Nasdaq has not. It is below the 50 day MVA (34.42) and the March/August up trendline. Indeed, the Wednesday bounce took it up to the trendline (34.25) and it failed there. As on the Nasdaq, it is showing a hammer doji at this level; that can indicate a move back up is forming. That is why we are going to look for it to break below the recent intraday lows in a weak market.
Volume: 117.42M Avg Volume: 80.226M
BUY POINT: $33.78 Volume=90M Target=$32.42 Stop=$34.52
POSITION: QQQ MJ - Jan. $36p (-84 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/qqq.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Play Date: 10/28/2003
VAR (Varian Medical Systems--$66.85; +0.24; optionable): Medical Equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/var.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. VAR is testing the late October breakout, working in a flying plateau, a tight, narrow lateral move. It is holding over the 10 day MVA (66.21) as it works sideways on mostly below average volume. At the same time relative strength rises because the stock is holding up as the market falls back. It is consolidating the move, biding its time. When it moves again we think it will be another strong surge.
Volume: 463.4K Avg Volume: 662.363K
BUY POINT: New: $67.88 (orig. $64.50) Volume=1.1M Target=$74.25 Stop=$65.42
POSITION: VAR BL - Feb. $60c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/var.html
Play Date: 11/03/2003
VARI (Varian--$39.1; -0.5; optionable): Scientific & technical Instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vari.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still working laterally over the 10 day MVA (39.02) after the breakout from its 17 week base to start the month. Thursday VARI showed a tight hammer doji on low volume just over the 10 day. After some strong volume early in the week, the rest on low volume as the rest of the market sold indicates it may be ready for the next leg higher.
Volume: 171.081K Avg Volume: 213.5K
BUY POINT: New: $40.12 (orig. $39.21) Volume=260K Target=$46.88 Stop=$38.38
POSITION: IUA BG - Feb. $35c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vari.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: We will to look at the stocks in the best patterns for entry points moving into the potential split announcements. We are researching the next date on those that did not announce but are still very strong. Some companies are still gun-shy about announcing splits, but one of the things we love about split plays is that they involve market leaders that make us good money even if they do not announce.
APPB: No split on 10-29-03
CHS: Forecast 12-2-03 after the market closes.
COCO: Forecast 11-20 at a board meeting. No announcement, and with it falling we closed the position for now.
COLM: No split announced on 10-23-03.
COO: Forecast 12-11-03.
CPWM: Forecast 11-20 before the open. No split but moving well after earnings.
DG: Forecast 12-4.
FDX: Forecast 12-17-03.
FOSL: No split announced 11-11-03. Testing the nice breakout.
FRED: Forecast 11-20-03. Earnings in line but no announcement.
HSIC: Forecast 11-20-03. Announced acquisitions instead of a split.
KLAC: Forecast 12-12-03.
MIK: Forecast 11-25-03.
PDCO: Forecast on 11-20-03. No split announcement. Gapped down to 50 day MVA, managed to rally back some.
PIR: Forecast 12-4-03.
RI: Forecast 12-4 in conjunction with a board meeting.
ROST: Announced the split11-19-03.
UOPX: Researching the next date.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 11/01/2003
COO (Cooper Companies--$43; -0.25; optionable): Medical Instruments. Forecast to announce a split on 12-11-03 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 11-5-02 in conjunction with a board meeting at a stock price of $52.94. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-25-03 at which time additional shares were authorized.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/coo.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Continues to move laterally over the 18 day MVA (42.86), trying to make a higher low in its 11 week base sporting excellent 4 to 0 accumulation. It is in a very tight range this week, and that typically precedes a move.
Volume: 188.6K Avg Volume: 363.409K
BUY POINT: $44.06 Volume=550K Target=$50.88 Stop=$41.95
POSITION: COO BI - Feb. $45c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/coo.html
Play Date: 11/06/2003
FDX (Federal Express--$74.41; -0.49; optionable): When it positively has to be there. Forecast to announce a split 12-17-03 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Two splits in the past, one 1996 at $75 and one in 1999 at $88.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdx.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. FDX is making its second test of the 18 day MVA (75.07) since breaking out in early October. Stocks tend to breakout and then make 4 or 5 bounces up the 10 or 18 day before coming back for a deeper test. As of Thursday FDX was holding over support at 74 from the mid-October breakout run high, showing a doji at that level on rising volume. Looks ready to make the next move.
Volume: 1.234M Avg Volume: 1.453M
BUY POINT: New: 76.12 (orig. $77.62) Volume=1.8M Target=$90 Stop=$74.88
POSITION: FDX AO - Jan. $75c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fdx.html
Play Date: 11/12/2003
FOSL (Fossil--$28.85; -0.53; optionable): Watches, shoes, fashion accessories. No split announced on 11-11-03 in conjunction with earnings but a nice breakout.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-14-02 in conjunction with a board meeting at a stock price of $27.70. the annual shareholder meeting was on 5-21-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fosl.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still at the 18 day MVA (27.94), unable to make the breakaway yet. Wednesday volume was up as it tried to make the move, but it faded Thursday, again falling back. Not a bad test as it basically forms another handle to its nice 12 week patter sporting solid 5 to 2 accumulation.
Volume: 246.348K Avg Volume: 242.09K
BUY POINT: New: 29.12 (orig. $28.75). Volume=369K Target=$33.55 Stop=$27.85
POSITION: QFS LE - Dec. $25c (81 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fosl.html
Play Date: 11/18/2003
MBG (Mandalay Resort Group--$41.1; -0.23; optionable): Resorts & casinos. Researching the next date, but wanted to get it on the report given the pattern.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mbg.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on the handle and looking very good with a low volume fade to the 10 day MVA (41.09) where it showed a tight doji Thursday. In a handle that often indicates the stock is ready to try a move up for the breakout. Nice pattern.
Volume: 705.5K Avg Volume: 1.169M
BUY POINT: $42.58 Volume=1.8M Target=$51 Stop=$40.62
POSITION: MBG CH - Mar. $40c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mbg.html
Play Date: 11/15/2003
NSIT (Insight Enterprises--$17.81; +0.45; optionable): Supply chain & other business management services. Forecast to announce a split on 1-30-04 in conjunction with earnings. The company did not confirm this date, but based upon our research this is the date for earnings release..
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 7-27-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $45. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-14-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nsit.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Forming up nicely after another 50 day MVA (17.23) where it held and made another higher low this week. Excellent 6 to 1 accumulation in the 10 week triangle is setting up for a great breakout. It has been a long time since NSIT announced a split, but the stock is at a 52-week high and in a beautiful pattern.
Volume: 309.567K Avg Volume: 544.363K
BUY POINT: $19.06 Volume=819K Target=$22.88 Stop=$17.94
POSITION: QNT BW - Feb. $17.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nsit.html
Play Date: 11/09/2003
PIR (Pier 1 Imports--$25.06; +0.07; optionable): Home furnishing stores. Forecast to announce a split on 12-4-03 in conjunction with a board meeting or on 12-9-03 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed these dates, but based upon our research these are the dates.
BACKGROUND: Last split its stock in June 1998 at a stock price of $25. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-26-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pir.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. PIR exploded higher on better guidance and has spent the past two weeks working on a test of that gap higher. It has come back to tap the 18 day MVA (24.60) on the low Thursday, mostly filling the gap. Volume was up as the stock jumped back up off that level. Money flow has continued to turn higher and relative strength is ready for the breakout even as it pulled back. Strong. It looks as if this test is over and that it will be successful. Looking for a move over the 10 day MVA (25.10) on a strong shot of volume..
Volume: 1.053M Avg Volume: 1.017M
BUY POINT: $25.25 Volume=1.6M Target=$30.35 Stop=$23.98
POSITION: PIR CE - Mar. $25c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pir.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 11/12/2003
GPRO (Gen Probe--$30.69; +0.57; optionable): Gene research
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpro.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume jumped Thursday as GRMN started the breakout move from its 8 week base. Accumulation is a solid 4 to 2 in the 9 week base. A strong stock ready to make the next move higher.
Volume: 2.003M Avg Volume: 1.272M
BUY POINT: $30.85 Volume=1.1M Target=$36.95 Stop=$28.67
POSITION: PSU BF - Feb. $30c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gpro.html
Play Date: 11/09/2003
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$52.91; +1.29; optionable): Global positioning devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. GRMN is making its own breakout from its 5 month base after forming a 3 week handle over the 18 day MVA (50.25). Thursday it started higher on the best volume of the month as relative strength broke out. Ready to make the next leg higher.
Volume: 1.658M Avg Volume: 461.363K
BUY POINT: $53.82 Volume=690K Target=$62 Stop=$50.45
POSITION: GQR DK - Apr. $55c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/grmn.html
Play Date: 09/16/2003
IGT (International Game Technology--$32.58; +0.5; optionable): Video poker, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. Held 32 again, trying to make the move but not getting enough volume. Still looks good here in the pullback from the strong move higher to start the month. Money flow is still working higher as the stock tests lower and relative strength is rising. Just need to see more volume and a strong move through the 10 day MVA (32.65).
Volume: 1.398M Avg Volume: 2.509M
BUY POINT: New: 33.55 (orig. $29.05) Volume=4.7M Target=$39 (orig. positions $34.55) Stop=$32.75
POSITION: IGT AY - Jan. $27.50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/igt.html
Play Date: 11/15/2003
ZBRA (Zebra Technologies--$60.08; -0.12; optionable): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zbra.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Tried to make the next move Thursday, but could not hold the breakout. Volume was higher but still just below average. A very nice lateral move after the breakout from its 3 month trading range in October. Money flow continues to surge and relative strength broke out further.
Volume: 541.367K Avg Volume: 480.818K
BUY POINT: $60.74 Volume=693K Target=$69.85 Stop=$59.05
POSITION: ZBQ BL - Feb. $60c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zbra.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
stock trading site
|
