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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 2 of 3
Economic Calendar
11-25-03
GDP, 1st revision Q3 (8:30): 7.3% expected, 7.2% prior. May not show up in this report, but the final revision that takes into account all inventories should be near 8%.
Consumer confidence, October (10:00): 82.8 expected, 81.1 September.
Existing home sales, October (10:00): 6.50M expected, 6.69M September.
11-26-03
Personal income, October (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.3% September.
Personal spending, October (8:30): 0.0% expected, -0.3% October.
Durable goods orders, Octiber, (8:30): 0.5% expected, 08.% September.
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 360K expected, 355K prior.
Michigan sentiment revised (9:45): 93.5 expected, 93.5 prior.
New home sales, October (10:00): 1.13M expected, 1.15M September.
Chicago PMI, November (10:00): 56.5 expected, 55.0 October.
Fed Beige Book (2:00)
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
New Pre-Split plays: We cull through the stocks coming up for splits and pick the best technical patterns that are ready to buy into, looking for the strong momentum move and then taking the gain and moving on.
Play Date: 11/22/2003
JAH (Jarden--$41.25; +0.78; no options): Rubber & plastics. Splits 3:2 on 11-28.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jah.html
STATUS: Test 18 day MVA. JAH has set up again, preparing to make a move higher as it heads into its split week. With a potential seasonal advance in the market this week, we are looking to move in on a move over the 10 day MVA on some continued rising volume. A good pre-announcement mover for us, and now we look for another nice pre-split move as it started up off the test of support at 40, moving on rising volume Friday.
Volume: 124.4K Avg Volume: 202.181K
BUY POINT: $41.42 Volume=205K Target=$47.48 Stop=$40.23
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jah.html
Play Date: 11/22/2003
NFI (Novastar Financial--$75.25; +0.16; optionable): Credit services. Splits 2:1 on 12-2-03.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nfi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A pre-split in a very nice technical pattern. NFI is in a 17 week base, currently working on the handle on low volume as it works laterally over the 10 day MVA (74.99). Positive accumulation in the base and relative strength poised for the breakout. Just being patient and waiting for the move so we can move in.
Volume: 136.9K Avg Volume: 392.727K
BUY POINT: $77.62 Volume=365K Target=$78 Stop=$73.82
POSITION: NFI CP - Mar. $80c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nfi.html
Play Date: 11/22/2003
UTSI (Utstarcom--$35.75; +0.03; optionable): Wireless communications. Splits 2:1 on a date to be announced.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/utsi.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. UTSI was a darling to start the year, rallying over 45 on the August high. That was the peak. It rolled over, broke the 50 day MVA (34.66) and sold lower and lower along that level until it neared the 200 day MVA (30.78). It moved laterally over the 200 day for 8 weeks and then exploded over the 50 day on a strong shot of volume Thursday. It tested back to the 50 day on the Friday low and rebounded. Good action, and we are looking at moving back in when it rallies past the Thursday high on stronger volume.
Volume: 3.396M Avg Volume: 4.281M
BUY POINT: $36.68 Volume=6.4M Target=$44 Stop=$34.44
POSITION: UON BG - Feb. $35c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/utsi.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Upside Leader Plays: These are stocks that have formed up well and can make us money. Not necessarily split stocks, but some can turn into split plays.
Play Date: 11/17/2003
CY (Cypress Semiconductor--$21.8; +0.1; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cy.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. CY is moving in a very tight, lateral range on the 18 day MVA (21.70) the past week. Volume is low, the range is tight. Very sleepy, and that is what you like to see as it shows no sellers as the overall market has sold. It is just biding its time for the next move. Want to see big volume as it does.
Volume: 1.925M Avg Volume: 3.176M
BUY POINT: $22.02 Volume=4.6M Target=$26.45 Stop=$21.45
POSITION: CY CD - Mar. $20c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cy.html
Play Date: 11/21/2003
WMS (Williams Industries--$25.82; +0.85; optionable): Gaming machines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wms.html
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. WMS is trying to breakout from its 11 week base sporting excellent 5 to 1 accumulation (5 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume). This is one we had on our list, and Friday saw it making a big volume move on word that one of its platforms received approval. We went ahead and issued the alert for it to start a position on this move. It finished the session well off the high, but it looks ready to continue the breakout.
Volume: 872.3K Avg Volume: 293.59K
BUY POINT: New: $26.06 (orig. alert: $25.83) Volume=650K Target=$31.22 Stop=$24.66
POSITION: WMS DE - Apr. $25c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wms.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: We will to look at the stocks in the best patterns for entry points moving into the potential split announcements. We are researching the next date on those that did not announce but are still very strong. Some companies are still gun-shy about announcing splits, but one of the things we love about split plays is that they involve market leaders that make us good money even if they do not announce.
APPB: No split on 10-29-03
APOL: Researching the next date, but forming up well.
AZO: Forecast 12-3-03
CHS: Forecast 12-2-03 after the market closes.
COCO: Forecast 11-20 at a board meeting. No announcement, and with it falling we closed the position for now.
COLM: No split announced on 10-23-03.
COO: Forecast 12-11-03.
CPWM: Forecast 11-20 before the open. No split but moving well after earnings.
DG: Forecast 12-4.
FDX: Forecast 12-17-03.
FOSL: No split announced 11-11-03. Testing the nice breakout.
HSIC: Forecast 11-20-03. Announced acquisitions instead of a split. Moving well with an above average volume move off the 18 day MVA.
KLAC: Forecast 12-12-03.
MBG: Forecast 12-3-03.
MGAM: Forecast 11-24-03 before the open.
MIK: Forecast 11-25-03.
NSIT: Forecast 1-30-04
PDCO: No split on 11-20-03. Excellent recovery off the 50 day MVA.
PIR: Forecast 12-4-03.
RI: Forecast 12-4 in conjunction with a board meeting.
SHFL: Forecast 12-11-03
UOPX: Researching the next date.
VAR: Forecast 12-01-03
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 11/22/2003
APOL (Apollo Group--$65.89; +1.03; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split in early January 2004 in conjunction with earnings. Researching the exact date as APOL bounces its earnings reports around.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $34.50. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apol.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. APOL peaked in July and it has moved laterally since. It came under some pressure in mid-October, but it rebounded and has formed up a nice little 9 week base. The handle is forming right over the 50 day MVA (64.59) on low, below average volume. This stock needed the rest, and it looks as if it got what it needed and is completing the base. Now we just sit back and wait for it to show a strong volume move through the buy point to move in. It can run like a deer when it takes off.
Volume: 1.343M Avg Volume: 1.947M
BUY POINT: $66.54 Volume=2.9M Target=$80 Stop=$64.22
POSITION: OAQ BM - Feb. $65c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/apol.html
Play Date: 11/22/2003
AZO (Autozone--$92.95; +1.59; optionable): Auto parts stores. Forecast to announce a split on 12-11-03 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting and earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split in March 1994 at stock price of $61.50. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 12-11-03 for 8:30 am CT at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/azo.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. AZO surged up through the end of October on better and better news until it was announced on Halloween that one of the hedge funds that is its big investor was selling shares via a secondary offering. That gapped the stock down, and it sold quickly down to support at 90. It checked up there and has moved laterally over that level for two weeks. It is now trying the move off of support at 90, rallying back over the 50 day MVA (92.58) on rising though still below average volume. It stalled out at the 18 day MVA (93.23) on the Friday move, but it is starting to make its return. The only thing pressuring it was the announced sale. We like it for at least a move back up to the prior high. AZO has not announced a split since late 1993, but the car part stocks are announcing splits. They tend to run in packs, and AZO is near 100.
Volume: 925.9K Avg Volume: 1.133M
BUY POINT: $93.48 Volume=1.7M Target=$103 Stop=$91.95
POSITION: AZO CS - Mar. $95c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/azo.html
Play Date: 11/22/2003
SHFL (Shuffle Master--$29.89; -0.01; optionable): Gaming machines (card shufflers, etc.). Forecast to announce a split on 12-11-03 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-1-01 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $31.80. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-12-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shfl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. SHFL is moving in the handle of a 12 week base, selling down to the 50 day MVA (29.30) on mostly below average volume. This is the shakeout where those buying in at the August high get frustrated that the stock is fading again after hitting that level and sell out. When they are gone the stock is ready to move again. Looking for a high volume move over the 10 day MVA (30.26) to take positions.
Volume: 163.166K Avg Volume: 304.818K
BUY POINT: $30.48 Volume=425K Target=$36.55 Stop=$29.12
POSITION: SFQ BF - Feb. $30c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/shfl.html
Play Date: 11/22/2003
SONC (Sonic Corp.--$29.98; +0.05; optionable): Roller skating burger joints. Forecast to announce a split 12-17-03 in conjunction with earnings or at the shareholder meeting on 1-28-04.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split on 1-17-02 in conjunction with a shareholder meeting at a price of $36.30.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sonc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. SONC blasted out of a 7 month base two weeks back on news that its sales were going to surpass expectations. It has since eased back to the 10 day MVA (29.63) on lower, below average volume in a nice test of the strong move. Accumulation in the base is excellent at 9 to 3 (9 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume). Money flow has surged, and relative strength broke out as well. Super action and looking for a move up from here on another shot of above average volume.
Volume: 187.183K Avg Volume: 417.09K
BUY POINT: $30.65 Volume=500K Target=$36.78 Stop=$29.35
POSITION: ZSQ CF - Mar. $30c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sonc.html
Play Date: 10/28/2003
VAR (Varian Medical Systems--$66.92; +0.07; optionable): Medical Equipment. Forecast to announce a split on 12-1-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The company did not confirm this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for1 split on 11-19-01 at a stock price of $70.20. The annual shareholder meeting was on 2-13-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/var.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Elevated to split category. VAR is looking supoer, holding a nice break higher the prior week, moving laterally over the 10 day MVA (66.34) following the breakout from its 12 week base. Solid 6 to 3 accumulation in the base and a relative strength breakout. Solid, and looking for another move higher from here on volume.
Volume: 282.8K Avg Volume: 662.363K
BUY POINT: New: $67.88 (orig. $64.50) Volume=1.1M Target=$74.25 Stop=$65.42
POSITION: VAR BL - Feb. $60c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/var.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 11/18/2003
MBG (Mandalay Resort Group--$41.02; -0.08; optionable): Resorts & casinos. Forecast 12-3-03 at 1:30 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Announced splits in 1991 and 1993 at $50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mbg.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. The handle to the 9 week base is forming up well as MBG holds over the 18 day MVA (40.78) on very low, below average volume. Accumulation in the base is positive at 3 to 2. Very nice base, and just waiting for that higher volume breakout.
Volume: 758.4K Avg Volume: 1.169M
BUY POINT: $42.58 Volume=1.8M Target=$51 Stop=$40.62
POSITION: MBG CH - Mar. $40c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mbg.html
Play Date: 11/15/2003
MGAM (Multimedia Games--$42.9; -0.1; optionable): Gaming equipment to Native American facilities. Forecast to announce a split on 11-24-03 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 1-14-02 at a stock price of $36.50. The annual shareholder meeting was on 2-18-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mgam.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. MGAM broke out of a 19 month base in September. It has made one test of the 18 day MVA (41.44) and is now making its second test, holding Friday at the 10 day MVA (42.58) and showing a very tight doji at that level. That often indicates a pullback or laterally move is coming to an end. Huge money flow and a relative strength breakout. Looks great for the next leg higher.
Volume: 327.378K Avg Volume: 568.59K
BUY POINT: New: $43. 45 (orig. $42.44) Volume=834K Target=$50 Stop=$41.44
POSITION: QMG AH - Jan. $40c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mgam.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 11/20/2003
ROST (Ross Stores--$53.43; +0.84; optionable): Apparel stores. Splits 3:1 on 12-19-03.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rost.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. Continued the bounce up off the 50 day MVA (51.12) Friday, but volume backed off to below average. Good volume on the Thursday move, however, and that gives ROST momentum for a further climb. For additional positions, however, we want to see more volume. Great relative strength breakout even before the stock hits a new high; good sign of strength.
Volume: 704.363K Avg Volume: 816.318K
BUY POINT: New: $54.06 (orig. $53.06) Volume=1M Target=$61 Stop=$50.97
POSITION: REQ BJ - Feb. $50c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rost.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 11/09/2003
GRMN (Garmin Ltd.--$52.24; -0.66; optionable): Global positioning devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/grmn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. GRMN is still working laterally below 54 and over the 18 day MVA (50.45), forming a handle to its 6 month base. It was making the breakout move Thursday, but stalled out at 54 and faded a bit Friday on low volume. Great 7 to 3 accumulation in the base and a relative strength breakout. It backed off from the breakout Friday on below average volume, but it still looks solid.
Volume: 401.99K Avg Volume: 461.363K
BUY POINT: New: $54.12 (orig. $53.82) Volume=690K Target=$62 Stop=$50.45
POSITION: GQR DK - Apr. $55c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/grmn.html
Play Date: 11/19/2003
HOTT (Hot Topic--$28.18; -0.43; optionable): Clothing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hott.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. Solid bounce off the 50 day (26.27) Thursday on some huge volume when it reported some outstanding earnings. Friday it tested back to the 18 day MVA (27.53) on lower volume. Still in very good shape and looking for it to continue the move higher.
Volume: 1.038M Avg Volume: 931.727K
BUY POINT: $28.55 Volume=1M Target=$34 Stop=$27.34
POSITION: UHO BY - Feb. $27.50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hott.html
Play Date: 11/15/2003
ZBRA (Zebra Technologies--$60.14; +0.06; optionable): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zbra.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Thursday's rally attempt came back, but ZBRA hung in there, holding at the 10 day MVA (59.59), showing a nice, tight doji on the candlestick pattern on very low volume. It has tightened up nicely, and we are looking for the stock to make the breakout from this three week lateral move. Surging money flow and a relative strength breakout even as the stock moves laterally.
Volume: 267.149K Avg Volume: 480.818K
BUY POINT: $60.74 Volume=693K Target=$69.85 Stop=$59.05
POSITION: ZBQ BL - Feb. $60c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/zbra.html
End part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock split
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