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Begin part 2 of 3
Economic Calendar
11-25-03
GDP, 1st revision Q3 (8:30): 7.3% expected, 7.2% prior. May not show up in this report, but the final revision that takes into account all inventories should be near 8%.
Consumer confidence, October (10:00): 82.8 expected, 81.1 September.
Existing home sales, October (10:00): 6.50M expected, 6.69M September.
11-26-03
Personal income, October (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.3% September.
Personal spending, October (8:30): 0.0% expected, -0.3% October.
Durable goods orders, Octiber, (8:30): 0.5% expected, 08.% September.
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 360K expected, 355K prior.
Michigan sentiment revised (9:45): 93.5 expected, 93.5 prior.
New home sales, October (10:00): 1.13M expected, 1.15M September.
Chicago PMI, November (10:00): 56.5 expected, 55.0 October.
Fed Beige Book (2:00)
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS
Best Plays:
1) NKE: Ready to break from a long base.
2) JNPR: At the 50 day MVA and ready for the bounce.
3) GGAL: Starting up on strong volume off the 50 day in a tetst of the breakout.
4) EQIX: Very nice handle still forming.
5) TEO: Volume surged Friday. Looks like the test is over.
6) KVHI; Volume is rapidly rising as it moves off the 50 day toward the breakout.
7) WMS: Volume is surging as it moves toward the breakout.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/22/2003
GGAL (Grupo Financiero Galicia--$6.10; +0.51; no options): Foreign bank holding company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ggal.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. GGAL broke out from a 15 week base in early October, rallying to 6.50 on the breakout run. It has now come back to the 50 day MVA (5.52) on lower volume and then blasted off Friday on a nice shot of above average volume. Accumulation in the base was a solid 5 to 2 (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume), setting the foundation for a solid breakout and run. This 50 day MVA test was the first test of the move, leaving plenty of upside ahead. We had our eye on this one during its base and let it get away; this is the next great entry point.
Volume: 361.558K Avg Volume: 282.788K
BUY POINT: $6.25 Volume=424K Target=$8 Stop=$5.81
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ggal.html
Play Date: 11/22/2003
JNPR (Juniper Networks--$17.42; +0.02; optionable): PC networking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnpr.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. JNPR is at the 50 day MVA (17.24), ready to start another leg higher in its 14 week base. It has been makign a series of higher lows along the 50 day with a constant top at roughly 19. Accumulation in the base is excellent at 5 to 0. There are a lot of things to like about this pattern: triangle, 50 day MVA test, doji on the candlestick chart. Looking for it to make that bounce higher over the short term MVA (10 and 18 day MVA at 17.81) on a strong volume surge.
Volume: 4.823M Avg Volume: 10.228M
BUY POINT: $17.88 Volume=12M Target=$21.45 Stop=$17.12
POSITION: JUX DR - Apr. $17.00c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jnpr.html
Play Date: 11/22/2003
NKE (Nike--$63.31; +0.71; optionable): Athletic apparel, sporting goods
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nke.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. NKE is in the handle of a 21 month base, using the 50 day MVA (61.44) as support as it tests back. Wednesday it showed a doji at the level and then jumped up Thursday on a strong volume shot. Momentum continued Friday but volume backed off. Accumualtion is a solid 25 to 18 in the base. Rallying money flow and relative strength ready to breakout. A long term winner that took a long breather and now looks ready to start anew.
Volume: 1.321M Avg Volume: 1.303M
BUY POINT: $64.55 Volume=2M Target=$75 Stop=$62.22
POSITION: NKE DM - Apr. $65c (42 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nke.html
Play Date: 11/22/2003
NOVL (Novell--$8.47; -0.3; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/novl.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. NOVL blasted off in early November, racing 9.82 on the high. This move follows the breakout from a nine month base in August. It is stepping higher but has pulled back this past week testing the breakout. Volume has backed off as it has come back to test that big breakout. Thursday and Friday it showed dojis on the candlestick chart as it tests the 18 day MVA (7.94). Super money flow and relative strength. Looking for it to rebound from here on rising volume.
Volume: 10.197M Avg Volume: 6.065M
BUY POINT: $8.82 Volume=10M Target=$10.62 Stop=$8.22
POSITION: NKQ BU - Feb. $7.50c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/novl.html
Play Date: 11/22/2003
SERO (Serological--$16.82; -0.04; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sero.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working in the handle of a 17 week base showing solid 6 to 3 accumulation. It spent the last week moving latearlly over the 18 d
(16.34) on low volume, building for the break higher. Relative strength is is super and we are just waiting for the breakout move.
Volume: 107.519K Avg Volume: 520.818K
BUY POINT: $17.72 Volume=700K Target=$21.25 Stop=$16.32
POSITION: HUS DW - Apr. $17.50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sero.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/05/2003
AMXC (AMX Corp.--$6.12; +0.02; no options): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amxc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Continues to hold over the 18 day MVA (5.94) on below average volume as it continues the formation of the handle to its 13 week base. Surging money flow even as the price works laterally, and we are watching for price to follow it highe ron the next breakout.
Volume: 43.6K Avg Volume: 113.727K
BUY POINT: New: $6.65 (orig. $6.27) Volume=151K Target=$8.12 Stop=$6.04
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amxc.html
Play Date: 11/05/2003
CPHD (Cepheid--$6.60; -0.02; no options): Scientific & technical instriments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cphd.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. After breaking out of a 12 week ascending triangle and rallying to 6.50, CPHD has started a consolidation to test the move. It is holding onto its gains as it does, moving in a tight and flat lateral move over the 10 day MVA (6.40). The 10 day MVA is rising to meet the stock, and when it does that typically sets off the next move higher. Huge money flow and relative strength broke out on the breakout move. The next volume break higher is the next entry point.
Volume: 179.076K Avg Volume: 255.409K
BUY POINT: New: 6.78 (orig. $6.15) Volume=338K Target=$7.88 Stop=$6.34
POSITION: - Stock (no option chains)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cphd.html
Play Date: 11/20/2003
EQIX (Equinix--$22.35; +0.1; no options): Internet service providers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eqix.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still forming the handle to its very nice 8 week base sporting 3 to 2 accumulation. Super money flow and relative strength ready for the breakout. Just letting it form up the handle and then make the break higher on strong volume.
Volume: 238.854K Avg Volume: 91.954K
BUY POINT: $23.12 Volume=200K Target=$27.75 Stop=$20.79
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/eqix.html
Play Date: 11/15/2003
KVHI (KVH Industries--$29.89; +0.91; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kvhi.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Good volume surge Friday as KVHI bounced up off the 50 day MVA as it prepares for the breakout from its 10 week base. Accumulation is excellent at 4 to 1. A very nice technical pattern and fundamentally sound stock as well. Looks ready to make the breakout.
Volume: 459.513K Avg Volume: 350.909K
BUY POINT: $32.02 Volume=536K Target=$38.45 Stop=$30.35
POSITION: VJC CF - Mar. $30c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kvhi.html
Play Date: 11/11/2003
LTXX (LTX--$15.5; +0.45; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/ltxx.html
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. Coming back to test the breakout, holding at the 18 day MVA (14.96), the level it should hold on this test. Lower volume on the pullback until Friday when it jumped up on rising almost average volume. This is one chip that is ready to make the move back up when the chips do the same. A solid base with great money flow and relative strength.
Volume: 711.11K Avg Volume: 860.181K
BUY POINT: $16.68 Volume=1.2M Target=$19.85 Stop=$15.51
POSITION: UXT BC - Feb. $15c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ltxx.html
Play Date: 11/19/2003
NVLS (Novellus Systems--$42.54; +0.72; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvls.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Another chip stock that is in good shape for a rebound, NVLS is holding over the 18 day MVA (42.09) as it pulls back to test the breakout from its 5 month flat base. Money flow is solid, moving up as the stock moves lower. It is set to make the move.
Volume: 6.272M Avg Volume: 7.447M
BUY POINT: $43.38 Volume=10M Target=$51 Stop=$41.88
POSITION: NLQ CA - Mar. $42.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nvls.html
Play Date: 10/27/2003
TEO (Telecom Argentina--$8; +0.23; no options): Foreign telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/teo.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. TEO broke out of a 4 month cup with handle base in late October, rallying sharply on solid volume. As the market waffled the past two weeks, TEO slid back to the 18 day MVA (7.84). Volume was low, however, indicating little selling. Friday volume screamed back up as TEO moved off of the 18 day. Looks ready for the next leg up after testing the breakout. Surging money flow and excellent relative strength.
Volume: 574.5K Avg Volume: 386.136K
BUY POINT: New: $8.24 (orig. $7.26) Volume=511K Target=$9 Stop=$7.76
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/teo.html
Play Date: 11/19/2003
TRFX (Traffix--$4.84; -0.05; no options): Marketing services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trfx.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Another big doji at the 10 day MVA (4.80) Friday as TRFX continued the breakout test, reaching down below the 18 day MVA and then rebouding on a solid increase in volume. Looking for the next move higher to move into positions on this stock that has come to life. It all started with the breakout from an 8 month base in October. It rallied well, peaking recently at 5.45. Looking for some above average trade on a continued move to step in as it continues the breakout move.
Volume: 78.455K Avg Volume: 80K
BUY POINT: $5.14 Volume=135K Target=$6.48 Stop=$4.76
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/trfx.html
Play Date: 11/21/2003
WMS (Williams Industries--$25.82; +0.85; optionable): Gaming machines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wms.html
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. WMS is trying to breakout from its 11 week base sporting excellent 5 to 1 accumulation (5 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume). This is one we had on our list, and Friday saw it making a big volume move on word that one of its platforms received approval. We went ahead and issued the alert for it to start a position on this move. It finished the session well off the high, but it looks ready to continue the breakout.
Volume: 872.3K Avg Volume: 293.59K
BUY POINT: New: $26.06 (orig. alert: $25.83) Volume=650K Target=$31.22 Stop=$24.66
POSITION: WMS DE - Apr. $25c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wms.html
Play Date: 11/15/2003
ZILA (Zila--$3.95; -0.03; no options): Drug products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zila.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working in the handle to its 9 week base, holding over the 18 day MVA (3.92) on continued below average volume. Very nice pullback to test the base that shows excellent 4 to 0 accumulation. Money flow continues to rally higher as the price moves laterally and lower. Looking for the stock price to follow the money flow.
Volume: 42.757K Avg Volume: 136.363K
BUY POINT: $4.19 Volume=185K Target=$5.35 Stop=$3.87
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/zila.html
Downside:
Play Date: 11/10/2003
ASKJ (Ask Jeeves--$17.39; -0.44; optionable): Internet information provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/askj.html
STATUS: Put. ASKJ has rallied to tap the 10 day MVA (18.22) and looks as if it is failing and ready to move lower in its downtrend. Still a buy at this point as it looks as if it is going to fall further than 16 on this move.
Volume: 2.026M Avg Volume: 2.466M
BUY POINT: New: $17.22 (orig. $18.22) Volume=2.5M Target=$15.15 Stop=$18.32
POSITION: AUK XD - Dec. $20p (-66 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/askj.html
Play Date: 11/15/2003
PFGC (Performance Food Group--$38.40; 0.00; optionable): Wholesale food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pfgc.html
STATUS: Put. Tapped the 18 day MVA (38.77) Thursday and fell back. Friday it was tanking on rising volume but managed to rebound with the market. Still moving in the downtrend, and we are looking for it to continue the fall form here.
Volume: 620.389K Avg Volume: 386.09K
BUY POINT: New: $38.28 (orig. $38.58) Volume=450K Target=$36.05 Stop=$39.12
POSITION: PGU XH - Dec. $40p (-64 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pfgc.html
End part 2 of 3
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