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Begin part 2 of 2
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS:
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/22/2003
JNPR (Juniper Networks--$17.42; +0.02; optionable): PC networking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnpr.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. JNPR is at the 50 day MVA (17.24), ready to start another leg higher in its 14 week base. It has been makign a series of higher lows along the 50 day with a constant top at roughly 19. Accumulation in the base is excellent at 5 to 0. There are a lot of things to like about this pattern: triangle, 50 day MVA test, doji on the candlestick chart. Looking for it to make that bounce higher over the short term MVA (10 and 18 day MVA at 17.81) on a strong volume surge.
Volume: 4.823M Avg Volume: 10.228M
BUY POINT: $17.88 Volume=12M Target=$21.45 Stop=$17.12
POSITION: JUX DR - Apr. $17.00c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jnpr.html
Play Date: 11/22/2003
NOVL (Novell--$8.47; -0.3; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/novl.html
STATUS: Testing the 18 day MVA. NOVL blasted off in early November, racing 9.82 on the high. This move follows the breakout from a nine month base in August. It is stepping higher but has pulled back this past week testing the breakout. Volume has backed off as it has come back to test that big breakout. Thursday and Friday it showed dojis on the candlestick chart as it tests the 18 day MVA (7.94). Super money flow and relative strength. Looking for it to rebound from here on rising volume.
Volume: 10.197M Avg Volume: 6.065M
BUY POINT: $8.82 Volume=10M Target=$10.62 Stop=$8.22
POSITION: NKQ BU - Feb. $7.50c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/novl.html
Play Date: 11/22/2003
SMDI (Sirenza Microdevices--$4.83; +0.07; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smdi.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. SMDI is working on a nice, low volume handle to its 10 week base. It is moving laterally the past week over the 10 day MVA (4.74) as it moves just below the 'hump' in the 'W' pattern at 5. Accumulation in the base is strong at 4 to 2, and money flow is rallying higher as the stock moves laterally to shakeout the last sellers. That is very positive action. Nice, sweet base, and now we are looking for a breakout move to enter positions.
Volume: 111.52K Avg Volume: 199.045K
BUY POINT: $5.06 Volume=299K Target=$6.35 Stop=$4.62
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/smdi.html
Play Date: 11/22/2003
SONC (Sonic Corp.--$29.98; +0.05; optionable): Roller skating burger joints.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sonc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. SONC blasted out of a 7 month base two weeks back on news that its sales were going to surpass expectations. It has since eased back to the 10 day MVA (29.63) on lower, below average volume in a nice test of the strong move. Accumulation in the base is excellent at 9 to 3 (9 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume). Money flow has surged, and relative strength broke out as well. Super action and looking for a move up from here on another shot of above average volume.
Volume: 187.183K Avg Volume: 417.09K
BUY POINT: $30.65 Volume=500K Target=$36.78 Stop=$29.35
POSITION: ZSQ CF - Mar. $30c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sonc.html
Good movers Friday: CATS; CKSW; EPIC; MDS
Continuing plays ready to move: AEIS; CY; EMBT; EQIX; NVLS; VAR; WMS
CONTINUING PLAY LIST: This week the summary table breaks out the upside and downside plays into different sections labeled accordingly.
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
^OEX 11/06 A Wedge 511.77 -0.02 523.15 545 410K 650K 518.55
Current. Narrow trading range showing a tight doji on below average volume. Held at support
AEIS 11/20 Test BO 26.3 -0.11 26.96 32.35 706K 777K 26.07
Buy Not Hit. Volatile session with 26.70 at the high (10 day MVA)and 25.74 at the low showing a doji on the 18 day MVA on above average volume. Making a lateral move on the 18 day MVA.
ANT 11/10 A Wedge 36.65 -0.15 35.58 42.45 315K 561K 34.85
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it all back on low volume. Tapped 35.87 at the day's low and rallied. Still in uptrend and moving up the 10 day MVA.
BEV 11/12 Cup 7.49 -0.16 7.25 8.94 990K 1.7M 7.09
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back on lower volume. Still in uptrend.
CASY 11/06 Rv H&S 16.75 +0.05 16.37 20.12 125K 200K 16.22
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied as the stock continues it move up the 10 day MVA on average volume.
CATS 10/27 Test BO 8.04 +0.54 7.98 9.55 541K 145K 7.42
Current. Tested below the 18 day MVA and rallied as the stock made an explosive move on excellent volume surge.
CKSW 10/25 Test BO 4.58 +0.26 3.61 4.58 1M 300K 4.02
Target Hit. Took a partial gain as the stock made an excellent move as it climbs the 10 day MVA on strong volume surge. Tapped 4.75 at the day's high, but gave some of it back.
CY 11/17 Test 18 21.8 +0.1 22.02 26.45 1.9M 4.6M 21.45
Buy Not Issued. continue to make a lateral move between the 10 and 18 day MVA on below average volume.
DCGN 09/20 Test BO 8.25 +0.08 4.32 5.38 1.1M 315K 7.81
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied closing on the 10 day MVA on above average volume. Beginning to make a lateral on the 10 day MVA.
DJO 09/11 Cup 23.95 +0.12 14 16.45 40K 100K 22.86
Current. Tapped 24.55 at the high, but gave it back showing a tight doji on very low volume. Starting a lateral move above the 10 day MVA.
ECSI 11/20 Test 18 6.88 -0.08 7.12 8.62 101K 221K 6.62
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied on slightly higher, but still low volume. May test down a little further.
EGHT 10/30 Cup 3.26 -0.33 2.15 2.91 909K 823K 3.06
Current. Thudded down closing below the 10 day MVA on average volume. May test down further.
EMBT 10/06 Flat 14.5 -0.24 11.24 13.38 161K 350K 14.27
Current. Tapped 14.93 at the day's high, but gave it back showing a doji on low volume. Testing the break out.
EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 14.5 -0.24 9.33 11.12 161K 400K 14.27
Current.
EPIC 11/15 Flat 11.87 +0.77 12 14.56 985K 522K 11.12
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied for a great move on strong volume surge. Tapped 12.23 at the high, but gave some back.
EQIX 11/20 Cup hdl 22.35 +0.1 23.12 27.75 239K 200K 20.79
Buy Not Hit. Continue to make a lateral move above the 10 day MVA showing a tight doji on lower, but still above average volume.
EVCI 10/20 Cup hdl 5.29 -0.19 3.4 4.38 87K 125K 5.05
Current. Pull back on very low volume. Managed to retain a portion of Tuesday's great move. Still in good shape.
GBN 10/22 Cup 2.26 +0.03 1.86 2.42 1.9M 300K 2.14
Current. Gapped up at the open and going up to tap 2.39 at the high, but gave it back on strong volume surge. Volume surge may indicate a change in pattern.
GGNS 11/19 Test 18 6.43 -0.16 6.64 7.98 191K 625K 6.16
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open, but could not hold the gain on very low volume. Still in good shape.
HOTT 11/19 Test 50 28.18 -0.43 28.55 34 1M 1M 27.34
Current. Tapped 28.55 at the high and 27.70 at the low showing a doji on much lower, but still above average volume.
KEYN 11/17 Flat 11.83 -0.23 12.52 15 81K 200K 11.65
Current. Tapped 11.96 at the high (above the 10 day MVA), but gave it back showing a doji on the 18 day MVA on below average volume. Still in good shape.
MDS 11/09 Cup 14.85 +0.5 14.28 17.21 115K 120K 13.88
Current. Gapped up at the open and made an explosive move on above average volume. Continues to soar up the 10 day MVA.
NMGC 11/11 Cup 3.08 -0.1 2.91 3.78 467K 303K 2.88
Current. Thudded down to close above the 10 day MVA on above average volume. Still in good shape.
NOOF 11/01 Cup hdl 8.15 -0.22 5.27 6.32 342K 319K 7.41
Current. Pull back on low volume. Managed to retain all of Tuesday's break out.
NOOF 10/25 Cup hdl 8.15 -0.22 4.78 6.21 342K 280K 7.41
Current.
NSIT 11/15 A Wedge 17.84 +0.03 19.06 22.88 285K 819K 17.94
Buy Not Hit. Narrow trading range showing a tight doji just above the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Needs to hold here or will drop.
NUVO 11/18 Test 18 3.4 -0.11 3.81 4.88 597K 1M 3.53
Buy Not Hit. Gapped up at the open, but then tanked closing below the 18 day MVA on slightly higher volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
NVLS 11/19 Test BO 42.54 +0.72 43.38 51 6.3M 10M 41.88
Buy Not Issued. Volatile session with 42.81 at the high and 41.75 at the low showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern. Ready to make its move up.
ONNN 10/28 Test 50 5.2 +0.07 4.65 5.88 1.7M 1.7M 4.78
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
PDYN 09/29 DB hdl 4.18 +0.08 2.55 3.24 241K 450K 4.02
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied showing a tight doji on below average volume. Moving up the 10 day MVA after testing the break out.
PLXS 11/03 DB hdl 17.5 +0.16 19.06 22.75 181K 528K 17.38
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave most of it back closing just above the simple 50 day MVA on lower volume. Still in good shape.
QADI 11/12 Flat 13.56 0 13.54 16.22 76K 298K 12.98
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back closing flat. Tapped 13.25 intraday and rallied. Still in uptrend.
RWY 11/04 Cup hdl 6.82 +0.09 6.24 7.85 92K 146K 6.42
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied showing a doji as the stock moves up the 10 day MVA on higher, but below average volume.
SCON 11/18 Test BO 6 +0.09 6.22 7.78 1.8M 3M 5.66
Current. Continue to make a lateral move above the 10 day MVA on average volume.
SOHU 10/24 Dbl btm 31.45 +0.05 37.69 45 2.4M 9M 34.85
Current. Tapped 32.45 at the high (18 day MVA), but gave it back closing below the 10 day MVA on low volume.
TARO 10/08 Cup hdl 65.38 -0.62 61.51 73 378K 501K 64.88
Exited. Gapped up at the open and gave it back closing on the 18 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Tested support at 64 and rallied. May test down further.
TLAB 11/10 DB hdl 8.08 +0.18 8.27 9.88 3.1M 6M 7.86
Current. Tested below the 18 day MVA and rallied on below average volume. Still in the pattern.
TMWD 11/19 BO 7.91 +0.11 8.15 8.78 317K 900K 7.41
Current. Moved up on lower volume. Still in uptrend.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 41.22 +0.93 23.42 27.62 407K 603K 39.94
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA on slightly higher, but still below average volume.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 41.22 +0.93 21.88 26 407K 603K 39.94
Current.
TTEC 11/19 Test BO 10 -0.14 10.25 12.27 539K 660K 9.28
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it all back and move on much lower, but above average volume. Still moving up the 10 day MVA.
TVIA 11/04 Cup hdl 2.63 +0.11 2.62 3.34 36K 219K 2.38
Current. Volatile session with 2.69 at the high and 2.48 at the low showing a tight doji on very low volume. Start the move back up the 10 day MVA.
ULGX 11/13 DB hdl 5.4 -0.1 5.94 7.45 10K 130K 5.32
Buy Not Hit. Contineu to make a lateral move on the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Still in good shape.
VAR 10/28 Cup hdl 66.92 +0.07 64.5 74.25 283K 1.1M 65.42
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave most of it back on low volume.
VLGC 11/10 Cup 1.99 +0.1 2.06 2.72 2.4M 1.3M 1.92
Buy Not Issued. Volatile session. Gapped up at the open showing a doji on strong volume.
WMS 11/21 Dbl btm 25.82 +0.85 25.83 31.22 872K 650K 24.66
Current. One we have been watching, it received good news regarding
a product & burst higher. We were able to get it, issiung
an alert as it came back for a test of that move.
XLA 11/17 Test BO 2.67 -0.15 3.14 4.12 694K 950K 2.87
Current. Thudded down to close below the 10 day MVA on above average volume. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied. Needs to hold here and rebound.
XLNX 11/12 DB hdl 36.06 +0.76 34.78 41 8.4M 11M 34.64
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on above average volume.
XLNX 11/01 DB hdl 36.06 +0.76 32.68 38.68 8.4M 11M 34.64
Current.
ZMH 08/09 Test BO 63.51 -0.16 51.12 59.55 602K 3M 63.12
Current. Continue to make a lateral move between the 10 and 18 day MVA on low volume.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
^SOXX 11/20 Put 65.77 +7.11 494.97 476 410K 0 506.24
Current. Sliced thru the bottom of the range & we took an aggressive position. It managed to rebound on us up to the 18 day MVA. Will have to fail here or we are out fast.
ARDI 11/10 Put 12.1 -0.15 11.95 10.06 1.1M 1M 12.62
Current. Started lower but managed to rebound to cut some losses.
Still struggling in the downtrend below the 10 and
18 day MVA, & we caught it late as it rebounded but
was still down.
ASCA 11/01 Put 21.61 +0.51 20.27 18.85 171K 185K 21.25
Current. Tried to break the 18 day MVA, but fell back to that level on the close.
MERQ 11/18 Put 44.6 +0.55 45.21 42.05 3M 3.5M 46.05
Volatile session with 45 at the high and 43.17 at the low showing a tight doji on below average volume. Needs to break through support at 44.
PFGC 11/15 Put 38.4 0 38.58 36.05 620K 450K 38.88
Buy Not Issued. Volatile with 38.45 at the high and 37.70 at the low closing flat on higher volume. May indicate a change in the pattern.
SFNT 11/11 Put 32.2 -0.31 34.05 30.55 235K 461K 33.22
Moving down on higher, but still below average volume. Needs to break through support of 32. Tapped 31.61 at the day's low but rallied.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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