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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Play Date: 11/24/2003
CBRL (CBRL Group--$40.25; +0.36; optionable): Restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbrl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. This could turn into a nice pre-announcement for us. Working on a three week handle to a 20 week base showing some solid 5 to 3 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). The handle has come back to test the 18 day MVA (39.83), holding that level as volume starts to spike above average the past week. Solid money flow. This place always seems packed.. Looking for volume to spike on the breakout move.
Volume: 649.217K Avg Volume: 503.727K
BUY POINT: $41.58 Volume=756K Target=$49.92 Stop=$39.96
POSITION: CBQ CH - Mar. $40c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cbrl.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS
Upside Leader Plays: These are stocks that have formed up well and can make us money. Not necessarily split stocks, but some can turn into split plays.
Play Date: 11/24/2003
VARI (Varian--$40.62; +1.34; optionable): Contract electronics manufacturing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vari.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Looking ready for the next move. VARI shot out of a 4 month cup base to start the month, the base showing solid 6 to 2 accumulation. Volume on the breakout was huge and relative strength broke out as well. Strong money flow is also leading the stock higher. The past three weeks it has consolidated the breakout form the base, moving in a small ascending triangle over the 10 day MVA (39.35). Solid volume last week, and then VARI was jumping off the 10 day Monda on rising though below average volume. Looks ready to make the bigger breakout.
Volume: 178.985K Avg Volume: 213.5K
BUY POINT: $40.85 Volume=260K Target=$49 Stop=$39.22
POSITION: IUA BH - Feb. $40c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vari.html
Play Date: 11/04/2003
TVIA (Tvia--$2.59; -0.04; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tvia.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. TVIA surged last week on the strong breakout on strong volume. It then fell back on low volume to end last week, but held the 10 day MVA (2.55), showing dojis Friday and Monday. Monday volume moved up toward average as the stock held and rallied to hold over that level. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout. Ready to continue the breakout move.
Volume: 100.226K Avg Volume: 176.818K
BUY POINT: New: $2.72 (orig. $2.62) Volume=219K Target=$3.34 Stop=$2.38
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tvia.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; PreAnn=Pre-Announcement split; PreSplt=Pre-split; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
^OEX 11/06 A Wedge 519.31 +7.54 523.15 545 404K 650K 518.55
Current.
APA 11/06 Test 50 70.72 +1.31 70.38 75.55 1.4M 1.8M 70.21
Current.
APOL 11/22 DB hdl 69.57 +3.68 66.54 82 2.4M 2.9M 65.75
Current.
APPB 10/13 BO 37.75 +0.5 37.55 44.95 306K 750K 36.84
Current.
AZO 11/22 Test 50 95.32 +2.37 95.12 105 1.5M 1.7M 92.34
Current.
BEAV 11/18 Test BO 5.65 +0.17 6.21 7.72 134K 506K 5.78
Buy Not Hit.
BLUD 10/21 A Wedge 21.9 +0.53 20.82 23.91 120K 320K 20.62
Current.
BSX 10/23 Test 50 35.7 +1.79 33.4 37.5 9.7M 4M 34
Current.
BSX 09/29 Test 50 35.7 +1.79 32.72 34.73 9.7M 4.5M 34
Current.
CATS 10/27 Test BO 8.4 +0.36 7.98 9.55 327K 145K 7.42
Current.
CLEC 10/30 Cup hdl 5.82 +0.2 5.54 6.94 35K 96K 5.15
Buy Not Issued.
COO 11/01 DB hdl 43.99 +0.79 44.06 50.88 194K 550K 42.88
Current.
CPTV 08/26 Cup hdl 11.89 +0.18 6.5 8.12 159K 200K 11.65
Current.
CRAI 11/10 DB hdl 31.2 +0.69 33.32 40 55K 109K 41.38
Buy Not Issued.
CY 11/17 Test 18 22.63 +0.83 22.31 26.45 3.2M 4.6M 21.65
Current.
DCGN 09/20 Test BO 8.49 +0.24 4.32 5.38 718K 315K 7.81
Current.
DG 08/12 Cup hdl 21.61 +0.68 22.72 26.45 1.1M 2.9M 21.13
DIOD 11/04 Cup hdl 28.98 +1.88 27.56 32.35 39K 75K 25.63
Buy Not Issued.
DJO 09/11 Cup 24.7 +0.75 14 16.45 179K 100K 22.86
Current.
EASI 10/14 A Wedge 50.06 +1.56 44.06 50 286K 287K 47.38
Target Hit.
EBAY 08/02 PreSplt 54.54 +2.69 53.78 60 11M 9M 53.94
Current.
EBAY 03/08 BO 54.54 +2.69 40.04 46 11M 8M 53.94
Current.
ECSI 11/20 Test 18 6.95 +0.07 7.12 8.62 76K 221K 6.62
Buy Not Issued.
EDMC 11/20 Test 18 68.18 +3.05 64.75 75.45 293K 375K 63.22
Buy Not Issued. Jumped up early on low trade and we looked for a pullback to get in, but kept building all session. Thus decided
to wait for a test back and then move in.
EMBT 10/06 Flat 14.48 -0.01 11.24 13.38 358K 350K 14.27
Current.
EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 14.48 -0.01 9.33 11.12 358K 400K 14.27
Current.
FDX 11/06 BO 71.24 +0.76 77.72 90 2.8M 1.8M 75.94
Exited.
FOSL 11/12 DB hdl 28.9 +0.48 28.75 33.55 222K 369K 27.85
Current.
FOSL 11/01 DB hdl 28.9 +0.48 28.17 33.55 222K 369K 27.85
Current.
GPRO 11/12 Cup hdl 33.35 +1.18 30.85 36.95 633K 1.1M 29.71
Current.
GRMN 11/24 Cup hdl 55 +2.76 54.38 62 1.1M 690K 50.78
Current.
GRMN 11/09 Cup hdl 55 +2.76 53.82 62 1.1M 690K 50.78
Current.
HAR 11/13 Test 18 134.4 +3.55 125.28 133.55 256K 325K 122.88
Target Hit.
HOTT 11/19 Test 50 29.6 +1.42 28.55 34 1.3M 1M 27.34
Current.
HSIC 11/09 Flat 67.49 +1.72 64.02 73.62 404K 494K 64.05
Buy Not Issued.
IGT 09/16 Rv H&S 33.82 +0.8 29.05 34.55 1.9M 4.7M 32.42
Current.
JAH 11/22 Test BO 41.95 +0.7 41.42 47.48 164K 205K 40.23
Buy Not Issued.
KSWS 11/19 Test BO 45.35 +0.92 44.72 51 185K 225K 43.25
Current.
MBG 11/18 Cup hdl 41.75 +0.73 42.58 51 516K 1.8M 40.62
Buy Not Hit.
MDS 11/09 Cup 14.96 +0.11 14.28 17.21 66K 120K 13.88
Current.
MGAM 11/15 Test BO 41.95 -0.95 42.44 50 2M 834K 41.44
Current.
MIK 11/04 A Wedge 47.91 +1.77 49 58.74 506K 873K 46.88
Current.
NFI 11/22 Cup hdl 76.06 +0.81 77.62 78 225K 365K 73.82
Buy Not Hit.
NSIT 11/15 A Wedge 18.42 +0.58 19.06 22.88 266K 819K 17.94
Buy Not Hit.
NSM 09/17 BO 42.42 +2.52 35.35 42 4M 5M 39.22
Current.
NUVO 11/18 Test 18 3.55 +0.15 3.81 4.88 1.3M 1M 3.53
Buy Not Hit.
PIR 11/09 Test BO 25.48 +0.39 25.7 30.62 456K 1.6M 24.98
Current.
PX 11/20 Test 50 68.84 +1.09 68.72 77.45 902K 950K 66.82
Buy Not Issued.
RI 09/30 Cup hdl 29.04 +0.64 27.72 33 392K 750K 28.04
ROST 11/20 Test 50 54.87 +1.44 54.59 62 768K 1M 52.97
Current.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 31.1 +0.59 30.35 36.75 2.6M 6M 29.94
Current.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 31.1 +0.59 26.3 30.94 2.6M 6M 29.94
Current.
SHFL 11/22 Cup hdl 30 +0.11 30.48 36.55 301K 425K 29.12
Buy Not Hit.
SOHU 10/24 Dbl btm 34.63 +3.18 37.69 45 5.7M 9M 34.85
Current.
SONC 11/22 Test BO 30.46 +0.48 30.65 36.78 228K 500K 29.35
Buy Not Hit.
SWIR 11/15 Cup 20.44 +0.15 19.31 23.12 558K 1M 19.06
Current.
TIWI 10/16 Cup hdl 7.88 +0.13 5.57 7 266K 350K 7.38
Current.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 42.49 +1.27 28.06 31.44 389K 494K 39.94
Current.
TSCO 07/05 Test 50 42.49 +1.27 26.62 30 389K 500K 39.94
Current.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 42.49 +1.27 23.42 27.62 389K 603K 39.94
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 42.49 +1.27 21.88 26 389K 603K 39.94
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 42.49 +1.27 19.3 22.19 389K 577K 39.94
Current.
TVIA 11/04 Cup hdl 2.59 -0.04 2.62 3.34 103K 219K 2.38
Current.
TXCC 11/11 Test 18 3.02 -0.01 3.38 4.42 2.4M 2.2M 3.12
Buy Not Issued.
ULGX 11/13 DB hdl 5.38 -0.02 5.94 7.45 24K 130K 5.32
Buy Not Hit.
UOPX 11/03 Test 50 74 +3.63 71.12 84 291K 315K 59.48
Current.
UOPX 10/25 Test 50 74 +3.63 68.95 82 291K 315K 69.48
Current.
URBN 10/18 Rv H&S 37.49 +1.48 33.61 40 521K 953K 34.74
Current.
UTSI 11/22 Test 50 37.06 +1.31 36.88 44 2.4M 6.4M 34.64
Current.
VAR 10/28 Cup hdl 67.95 +1.03 64.5 74.25 246K 1.1M 65.42
Current.
VARI 11/03 Cup hdl 40.62 +1.34 39.21 46.88 173K 260K 38.38
Current.
VECO 11/20 A Wedge 29.33 +0.68 28.94 34.72 469K 812K 26.91
Buy Not Issued.
WMS 11/21 Dbl btm 26.81 +0.99 25.83 31.22 895K 650K 24.66
Current.
XLNX 11/12 DB hdl 37.3 +1.24 34.78 41 5.2M 11M 34.64
Current.
XLNX 11/01 DB hdl 37.3 +1.24 32.68 38.68 5.2M 11M 34.64
Current.
ZBRA 11/15 Test 18 62.64 +2.5 61.58 70.88 434K 693K 59.98
Current.
ZMH 08/09 Test BO 65.35 +1.84 51.12 59.55 733K 3M 63.12
Current.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ERES 11/18 Put 39.35 +1.41 38.98 34.88 739K 1.3M 39.94
QQQ 11/20 Put 35.18 +0.95 33.78 32.42 90M 90M 34.83
Exited.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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