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yahoo stock, us stock market
Begin Part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information.
Best Plays: Last night's new plays: LEN beat the buy point for the breakout, but will need stronger volume to keep it going (the stock remains a buy up to 45.02 if it gets breakout volume). ANSS moved up in the pennant, and volume was strong. We are looking for that breakout. COO got a strong dose of volume today and broke out over the April high. Great day for the market (and the Microsoft ruling helped software)!
Best Plays:
1) MSFT: Looking for a breakout.
2) ADBE: A good move up as well.
3) RCII: Ready to break resistance.
MSFT (Microsoft--$72.74; +1.60; optionable (MSQ): Application Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/msft.html
STATUS: Microsoft will not be broken into pieces in all probability, and the news shot the stock up to 76.15 when trading resumed in the afternoon (trading was halted early when buy and sell orders piled in after the news). Volume was sharply up at 64.5 million (avg. 41 million), on the breakout move from the shallow base that formed at the bottom of the larger, 15-month base. We are looking at the pullback as a buying opportunity on a move over the recent high at 73.75, potential resistance. Money flow has trended higher since the first of April and is strong, and relative strength is out ahead of price. That is bullish. Initial target: $81-85.
BUY POINT: Over 74 on the close, meaning we want to see it hold the move (we can buy before the close if we are confident) on continued rising volume (min. breakout volume is 61.5 million).
Stop loss: 67.99 (50 day MVA, 68.34). A buy on the breakout up to 77.57.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $65 calls to buy (MSQ HM).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/msft.html
THE PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that are looking as if they are ready to pick up a few shares. We are "weeding" the portfolios this weekend.
THE LEADERS: We have revamped this portfolio, dropping for now CPN, SGR, NATI and BRKS. Those stocks have, for the most part, dropped off and need to form bases or do some more work in ones already existing. To the New Leader section we are adding DGX, EBAY, FRX, PSFT, ADVS, and BMET. In the Previous Leader section, VRSN, VRTS, ADBE and SEBL are retained. Ones dropped include AMCC, ARBA, BEAS, BRCD, CIEN, EMC, EXTR, GLW, JNPR, NEWP, NTAP, PMCS and SCMR. All of these stocks will be kept on watch in context with improvement in their sectors and the market.
New Leaders: ESRX, LLL, ACS, NVDA, DGX, EBAY, FRX, PSFT, ADVS, BMET
Previous Leaders: ADBE, SEBL, VRSN, VRTS
ADBE (Adobe Systems--$46.86; +2.51; optionable (AEQ): Application Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adbe.html
STATUS: Thanks to the Microsoft news, software performed better today, including ADBE. The stock made a good move, gapping higher on the opening price (44.85) and on stronger volume running to a high of 48.13 before pulling back down to close. The stock had moved back over its shorter term down trendline (connecting the April and May highs) on Monday, holding the position as it set up for this move. The stock will try to break out of the ranging pattern (with the high at 48.80 April's high), and we're looking at a target at the 200 day MVA, 52.62. Volume came in a t 4.65 million (avg. 4.2 million). Money flow looks good in its continued uptrend.
BUY POINT: Over 48.80 on continued rising volume. Stop: 44.90 (10 day MVA is at 44.11).
POSITION: Stock and/or October $40 or $45 calls to buy (AEQ JH or JI).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/adbe.html
PSFT (Peoplesoft--$46.06; +0.82; optionable (PQO): Application Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psft.html
STATUS: We looked at this stock previously (June 20, before adding it to the portfolio). It is in a 5.5-month base, and is currently trying to set up an ascending wedge style pattern after finding support on dips initially at the 50 day MVA and then the 18 day MVA (40.08 and 43.33, respectively). The stock mirrored the move by MSFT today, running up to a high of 48.75 (that tested near resistance at the 49 range) but pulling back down. Of course, trading wasn't halted on this stock, and it sold back down a bit more steeply, but managed a bounce back in after hours trading. Look for a move over the June high at 49.15 as volume remains strong. The stock is showing steadily uptrending money flow. Target:
BUY POINT: Over 49.15 on continued rising volume. Stop: 45.22.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $40 calls to buy (PQO JH).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/psft.html
FRX (Forest Laboratories--$72.36; +1.03; optionable (FRX): Drug Manufacturers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/frx.html
STATUS: Holding above the February high of 72.12 after crossing back over the 10 day MVA (71.95) on stronger volume today (1.1 million; avg. 1.3 million). That high marks the start of the 14-week base. The stock has pulled back the last 5 days prior to this move, showing excellent price/volume action (lower volume each day price drops) through today. The aggressive can look at taking positions on a move over the intraday high of 73 in a strong market rally. Otherwise, look for a move over the June high of 78.28 for entry points. Money flow looks good, and relative strength is out ahead of price. Target from here: $83.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 73 on average or better volume. Stop: 67.16.
New high: Over 78.28 on volume in the range of 1.5 million or better. Stop: 72.02.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or August $65 calls to buy (FRX HM). New high: Stock and/or August $65 or $70 calls to buy (FRX HM or HN).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/frx.html
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: We have revamped the Up & Comers portfolio, and are dropping EXDS, TQNT, BVSN, SANM, PKI and GMST for now, adding BBBY, IGT, RCII, CHS, KG and AEOS.
LNCR, BJ, ANF, LOW, HI, THQI, BBBY, IGT, RCII, CHS, KG, AEOS.
From last night: BJ tried to make its move, but on lower volume at least managed to close above its 10 day MVA with a doji. The 18 day MVA isn't far away if it has to test that support again; that wouldn't be a major crisis, just a situation requiring patience.
RCII (Rent A Center--$51.56; +2.16; optionable (RQG): Diversified Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rcii.html
STATUS: Made a good move as volume broke above average to 414,600 (avg. 448,000). The stock closed above last week's closing high of 51.50, but still faces the June highs around 52. In a continued rally, the stock looks good to make that move. This move comes after the stock made an orderly pullback to the 18 day MVA (48.48), showing the kind of price/volume action we like to see. Money flow and buying are solid. We are looking at a target of $55.
BUY POINT: Over 52.17 on continued rising volume. Stop: 48 (below the 18 day MVA, at 48.48).
POSITION: Stock and/or September $50 calls to buy (RQG IJ).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rcii.html
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: BRCM, CHKP, CSCO, EMLX, IDTI, INTC, JDSU, MVSN, NT, PWER, SUNW, VTSS
Time for a new survey on what stocks members want in the portfolio. Let us know with an email, and we will compile the stocks with the most suggestions! Thanks to those who have already sent in picks we really appreciate it!
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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yahoo stock
us stock market
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