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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
Play Date: 11/25/2003
MRVC (MRV Communications--$3.91; +0.46; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvc.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. MRVC is ready to move again. We made some money off of it as it broke out of its June to August base, and now it has formed a 9 week triangle showing strong 4 to 1 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume). That shows that big money has been accumulating the stock during the base. Surging money flow and a relative strength breakout as volume shot higher on the Tuesday stock breakout. Looking super and we are looking to move in on a further volume move.
Volume: 8.642M Avg Volume: 1.35M
BUY POINT: $4.01 Volume=2M Target=$5.05 Stop=$3.71
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mrvc.html
Play Date: 11/25/2003
PDII (PDI, Inc.--$28.81; +2.58; optionable): Sales & marketing for biopharmaceuticals.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdii.html
STATUS: Flat base breakout. Breaking out of a 13 week flat base that formed over the 50 day MVA (24.26). Big volume as it broke out Tuesday in an overall quiet market. Money flow surging, relative strength is breaking out with the stock. Accumulation is an outstanding 5 to 0, setting the foundation for a strong move higher.
Volume: 613.874K Avg Volume: 166.181K
BUY POINT: $29.02 Volume=275K Target=$34.85 Stop=$26.99
POSITION: PKU DF - Apr. $30c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pdii.html
Play Date: 11/25/2003
ILMN (Illumina--$6.92; +0.57; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ilmn.html
STATUS: Flat base. ILMN broke out of a 12 month cup with handle base in mid-October and immediately moved into the current 5 week flat base to consolidate that breakout. Solid 3 to 0 accumulation in the base, a very good consolidation as it is being used by the big money to accumulate additional shares. Volume has surged the past two sessions, and Tuesday ILMN was moving toward a breakout on some huge trade. Relative strength is breaking out as well, a good indication of a solid move. Looking for positions on a volume move over 7.
Volume: 2.557M Avg Volume: 71.227K
BUY POINT: $7.02 Volume=107K Target=$8.45 Stop=$6.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ilmn.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: We will to look at the stocks in the best patterns for entry points moving into the potential split announcements. We are researching the next date on those that did not announce but are still very strong. Some companies are still gun-shy about announcing splits, but one of the things we love about split plays is that they involve market leaders that make us good money even if they do not announce.
APPB: No split on 10-29-03
APOL: Researching the next date, but forming up well.
AZO: Forecast 12-3-03
CHS: Forecast 12-2-03 after the market closes.
COLM: No split announced on 10-23-03.
COO: Forecast 12-11-03.
CPWM: Forecast 11-20 before the open. No split but moving well after earnings.
DG: Forecast 12-4.
FDX: Forecast 12-17-03.
FOSL: No split announced 11-11-03. Testing the nice breakout.
HSIC: Forecast 11-20-03. Announced acquisitions instead of a split. Moving well with an above average volume move off the 18 day MVA.
KLAC: Forecast 12-12-03.
MBG: Forecast 12-3-03.
MGAM: Forecast 11-24-03 before the open. No split announced. It gapped down to the 50 day MVA but rallied back.
MIK: Forecast 11-25-03. No split but solid results as it moves up off the 50 day MVA.
NSIT: Forecast 1-30-04
PDCO: No split on 11-20-03. Excellent recovery off the 50 day MVA.
PIR: Forecast 12-4-03.
RI: Forecast 12-4 in conjunction with a board meeting.
SHFL: Forecast 12-11-03
SONC: Forecast 12-17-03
UOPX: Researching the next date.
VAR: Forecast 12-01-03
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 11/22/2003
APOL (Apollo Group--$69.05; -0.52; optionable): Education and training. Forecast to announce a split in early January 2004 in conjunction with earnings. Researching the exact date as APOL bounces its earnings reports around.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $34.50. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apol.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Massive break higher Monday on solid, above average volume, and then took a rest Tuesday on lower, below average trade. Big breakout from its 9 week base. We said this stock could fly with it starts to move, and after a test of 68 it looks ready to move again. It was not done with just that Monday move, and we are looking for APOL to begin its next leg as it leaves the 5 month consolidation of its previous long rise.
Volume: 1.758M Avg Volume: 1.947M
BUY POINT: New: Test 68, then 68.75 on the way back up (orig. $66.54) Volume=2.9M Target=$80 Stop=$64.22
POSITION: OAQ BM - Feb. $65c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/apol.html
Play Date: 11/24/2003
CBRL (CBRL Group--$40.64; +0.39; optionable): Restaurants. Researching date, but great pattern.
BACKGROUND: CBRL last split in March 1993 and 1992. A long time but has climbed back up to those prices on this long, steady run since early 2000.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbrl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Solid volume as CBRL started up off the 18 day MVA (39.91) on a second session of strong volume. CBRL is trying to make the breakout from a three week handle to a 20 week base showing some solid 5 to 3 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). Solid money flow. Looking for continues strong volume on the breakout move.
Volume: 823.273K Avg Volume: 503.727K
BUY POINT: $41.58 Volume=756K Target=$49.92 Stop=$39.96
POSITION: CBQ CH - Mar. $40c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cbrl.html
Play Date: 11/01/2003
FOSL (Fossil--$26.87; -0.06; optionable): Watches, shoes, fashion accessories. No split announced on 11-11-03 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-14-02 in conjunction with a board meeting at a stock price of $27.70. the annual shareholder meeting was on 5-21-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fosl.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. FOSL blasted higher on its strong earnings, topped 29, and has spent the last two weeks easing back on lower trade, holding the 18 day MVA (28.18) to consolidate the gain. A very nice additional handle to the 13 week base. Money flow continues to run higher as the stock workes laterally. Setting up nicely for the next breakout.
Volume: 102.041K Avg Volume: 246K
BUY POINT: New: $29.88 (orig. $27.32) Volume=369K Target=$32.75 Stop=$26.25
POSITION: Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fosl.html
Play Date: 11/18/2003
MBG (Mandalay Resort Group--$42.01; +0.26; optionable): Resorts & casinos. Forecast 12-3-03 at 1:30 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Announced splits in 1991 and 1993 at $50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mbg.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on the breakout from the handle to the 9 week base, rallying this week right up to the breakout point. Volume, however, is not following it higher. Accumulation in the base is positive at 3 to 2. Again a very nice base, and just waiting for that higher volume breakout.
Volume: 661.4K Avg Volume: 1.169M
BUY POINT: $42.58 Volume=1.8M Target=$51 Stop=$40.62
POSITION: MBG CH - Mar. $40c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mbg.html
Play Date: 11/15/2003
NSIT (Insight Enterprises--$18.72; +0.3; optionable): Supply chain & other business management services. Forecast to announce a split on 1-30-04 in conjunction with earnings. The company did not confirm this date, but based upon our research this is the date for earnings release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 7-27-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $45. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-14-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nsit.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. NSIT is moving toward the breakout of its 11 week base sporting solid 4 to 2 accumulation. It has been using the 50 day MVA (17.36) as support for the pattern as it makes higher and higher lows below a constant top at 19. Volume finally spiked higher Tuesday, moving above average as NSIT moved toward the breakout. It is ready, now we just see if it can make the breakout on volume and make it stick.
Volume: 500.96K Avg Volume: 544.363K
BUY POINT: $19.06 Volume=819K Target=$22.88 Stop=$17.94
POSITION: QNT BW - Feb. $17.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nsit.html
Play Date: 11/22/2003
SONC (Sonic Corp.--$30.82; +0.36; optionable): Roller skating burger joints. Forecast to announce a split 12-17-03 in conjunction with earnings or at the shareholder meeting on 1-28-04.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split on 1-17-02 in conjunction with a shareholder meeting at a price of $36.30.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sonc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. SONC has moved up this week on some rising volume, but it is still well below average as it moves through the buy point. SONC blasted out of a 7 month base two weeks back on news that its sales were going to surpass expectations. It tested the move with a fade back to the 10 day MVA (29.97) then started up this week. Accumulation in the base is excellent at 9 to 3 (9 up weeks on rising volume to 3 down weeks on rising volume), and money flow is surging ahead of price. Have to see more volume on this move as it breaks through 31.
Volume: 266.563K Avg Volume: 417.09K
BUY POINT: New: $31.12 (orig. $30.65) Volume=500K Target=$36.78 Stop=$29.35
POSITION: ZSQ CF - Mar. $30c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sonc.html
Play Date: 11/03/2003
UOPX (University of Phoenix Online--$73.86; -0.14; optionable): Online education. A split is coming, most likely in January, but we wanted to be in it given the pattern.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4 for 3 split on 4-5-02 at a stock price of $38.95. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uopx.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. After a super run from the breakout of an 11 month base in March, UOPX peaked at 75 and started to move laterally over the 50 day MVA (68.88), using that level to make higher and higher lows. Monday UOPX exploded over some resistance from September and November tops on a strong, above average volume shot. Tuesday it took a breather on lower, below average volume. It may need another few days to move laterally and form a handle to the pattern. Either way we look for a break over the recent high (74.67) on more strong trade.
Volume: 204.086K Avg Volume: 248.09K
BUY POINT: New: $74.67 (orig. $71.12) Volume=315K Target=$84 Stop=$59.48
POSITION: UBY CN - Mar. $70c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uopx.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 11/22/2003
NFI (Novastar Financial--$77.1; +1.04; optionable): Credit services. Splits 2:1 on 12-2-03.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nfi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working in the nice 17 week pattern, forming the handle over the 10 day MVA (75.54) on very low, below average volume. Positive accumulation in the base and relative strength poised for the breakout. Again we are just being patient and waiting for the strong move to step in.
Volume: 193.6K Avg Volume: 392.727K
BUY POINT: $77.62 Volume=365K Target=$78 Stop=$73.82
POSITION: NFI CP - Mar. $80c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nfi.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 11/12/2003
GPRO (Gen Probe--$32.61; -0.74; optionable): Research services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpro.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. GPRO blasted out of its 8 week cup with handle base Friday on strong volume, and is easing back to test that move, holding over support at 32 on much lower, below average volume. Tuesday it showed a very tight doji that tapped that level on the low. That often indicates the next move is coming. It may take another session or two to complete the pullback, but we want to be ready when it starts back up.
Volume: 828.547K Avg Volume: 1.272M
BUY POINT: New: $34.04 (orig. $30.85) Volume=1.1M Target=New positions: $40 (orig. positions: $36.95) Stop=$29.71
POSITION: PSU BF - Feb. $30c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gpro.html
Play Date: 07/30/2003
SBUX (Starbucks--$31.51; +0.41; optionable): Expensive coffee
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbux.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. SBUX continues its move up the 50 day MVA (30.53) and has come back during the selling the past two weeks to test that level. Monday it started up off that level and Tuesday it cleared the 18 day MVA (31.31) on stronger, above average volume. Looks ready for the next move up as money flow turns higher. A long term winner providing another point to enter.
Volume: 3.173M Avg Volume: 2.834M
BUY POINT: $30.35 Volume=6M Target=$36.75 Stop=$29.94
POSITION: SQX JE - Oct. $25c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sbux.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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