us stock market, trend trading stock

Begin Part 3 of 3

ADVP (Advancepcs--$63.70; -0.43; optionable): Health services. We are working on a date for this one.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/advp.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 10-12-99 at a stock price of $50. The annual shareholder meeting was on 12-7-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company does not have sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split, but does have sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
STATUS: ADVP has recovered from a drop through its 50 day MVA (59.84), a drop which was looking serious. Instead of sinking, the stock has made a steady recovery, but on rather tame volume, which was a concern before its recent drop. It is currently using the 18 day MVA (61.53) as support, and might visit that level again after having hit up to 65.39 today before dropping back a bit to close. From that support we will see if it can make a stronger move back up. The high is 68.59. Relative strength is still solid.
BUY POINT: Aggressive momentum: After a pullback that holds the 18 day, a strong move back over 65, looking for above average volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $60 calls to buy (QVD IL).

PRE-SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS: With these stocks we keep an eye out, waiting for the start of a pre-split run.

USPH (U.S. Physical Therapy--$23.99; -0.51; no options): Health Services. Splits 3:2 effective June 29.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/usph.html
STATUS: Made a decent last move this week before the split, pulling back a bit today to its 18 day MVA (24.02; 50 day MVA at 23.26) with a doji on low volume (76,300; average 202,800). We will see if it can hold support for a post-split move; typically we see weakness after the split, but we have seen several good post-split moves lately, which is especially possible with a decent pattern. USPH has been in a pennant pattern, with a drop back and shakeout last week before the recent move up. The high Wednesday was 24.90.
PLAY: Aggressive: A move over 24.90 (16.60 post-split) on increased volume near the average, with stock.

MTON (Metro One--$63.45; +1.24; optionable): Telecom. Splits 3:2 effective June 29.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mton.html
STATUS: Has been made a solid, steady move up along its short-term MVA's (10 and 18 day at 59.04 and 56.53, respectively), making a nice move the last few days. The move culminated with a gap up to a doji today, which signals a drop back for Friday, especially given the split. We will see if it holds support, but will be ready for a put play back to the 50 day MVA (49.10) if the fall back is on strong volume.
PLAY: On a drop back through the 18 day MVA (currently 56.53) with increased volume near the average (438,500; today 291,700), August $75 puts to buy (KQM TN).

KG (King Pharmaceuticals--$53.12; -0.37; optionable): Splits 4:3 on or about July 19.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kg.html
STATUS: Has pulled back from its break from a cup with handle (high of 57.88), but has been holding support at 52.50 (its handle range, with the 18 day MVA at 53.27. It dipped back Wednesday, showing a doji today on increased volume (1.52 million; average 1.12 million), tapping its 10 day at the high of 53.75. Holding support is encouraging, and we will see if it can make a move up. When a makes a solid move up going into the announcement, we wait for this type of pullback to support and look for a run. Target on a breakout: 64-65.
PLAY: On a move over 55 on continued strong volume, stock and/or August $50 calls to buy (KG HJ).

CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.

ACF (Americredit--$53.15; +0.40; optionable): Credit Services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acf.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-18-98 at a stock price of $35. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-7-00 at which time no authorized shares were increased. The company does not have sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split, but does have sufficient shares for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: ACF has made a pretty nice move up from its 50 day MVA (47.65), and after consolidating with several dojis over its short-term MVA's (10 day at 50.92), the stock made a strong move up Wednesday. Today it continued up, but volume was much weaker (949,800; average 1.06 million), and after hitting up to 54.95 (all-time high 55), the stock pulled back to show a 'tombstone' doji. Off of this pattern we will see if the stock can hold a pullback to support, and try another move.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: After holding support at the 10 day on a low-volume pullback, a move back over 52.50 on continued strong volume. Stop: 47.35. Breakout: Over 55 with above average volume. Stop: 51.15.
POSITION: Both buy points: Stock and/or August $50 calls to buy (ACF HJ).

CBH (Commerce Bancorp--$70.90; +0.46; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbh.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 5:4 split on 6-29-98. The stock price was $54.63. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-20-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has insufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: CBH had been showing a head and shoulders pattern after a weak breakout move (from a cup with handle), but battled its was back over its 50 day MVA (67.81) and made a strong move up the last couple of sessions preceding Thursday, when it showed a tight doji. Volume dipped slightly but was still strong at 180,600 (average 152,000), so off of this pattern we will see if the stock tests the 10 day MVA, at 69.02. However, we will continue to watch for a move up, with the previous breakout high being 72.90.
BUY POINT: From here: Over 72.90 on continued strong volume. Stop: Just below the 50 day MVA. Pullback: A move up on continued strong volume after a lower-volume pullback that holds the 10 day. Stop: 64.17.
POSITION: From here: Stock and/or September $70 calls to buy (CBH IM). Pullback: Stock and/or September $65 calls to buy (CBH IM).

CECO (Career Education--$60.00; -0.57; no options):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-1-00 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $57. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-11-01 at 1:00 pm CDT at which time additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split without increasing authorized shares.
STATUS: Has made three very sharp, strong moves up off of its 10 day MVA (57.54) recently, with Wednesday's jump the strongest yet. The stock had been moving steadily moving up along its 50 day MVA (52.70), but has taken off and is now on a steeper incline. Thursday CECO gapped up and then pulled back down intraday, which is a pattern that indicates a further drop. We will see if it can hold the 10 day again on a pullback, looking for a run back up toward our target of 65. With the steeper trend and solid volume we will be diligent with stops. The stock shows excellent money flow, buying, and relative strength.
BUY POINT: After a pullback that holds the 10 day, a move back up on above average volume. Stop: 53.50.
POSITION: Stock only.

CHBS (Christopher & Banks--$31.03; +1.00; optionable): No announcement this week.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chbs.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 stock split on 1-17-01 at a price of $34. Before that CHBS also had 3:2 splits in July of 2000 at $35 and in December 1999 at $26.
STATUS: Dropped back off of its 10 day MVA (32.45) Wednesday with big volume, and showed a loose doji today on even bigger volume (1.17 million; average 530,000) as it caught support at its recent lows in the 30 range. The 200 day MVA is just below at 28.46, and we will see how the stock handles that level. Nothing for Friday.

IGT (International Game Technology--$61.45; +0.93; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research, it does not appear that IGT has ever announced a split. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-5-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: IGT has steadily pulled back to its 50 day MVA (59.74), moving up slightly today from that level (there are also late-May and mid-June lows in that range). This pullback is somewhat typical of what the stock has done before making solid moves up while in the current trend, but it is getting pretty extended after several runs over the past year. We are looking for a strong move, but will use care with stops. The high is 66.04.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over the up trendline (from September 2000-January closing lows) at 63, with above average volume (down to 675,900 today; average 798,000). Stop: 58.59.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $60 calls to buy (IGT GL).

KMP (Kinder Morgan--$69.25; -0.85):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmp.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that KMP has ever split its stock. KMP is a master limited partnership and therefore does not have annual shareholder meetings.
STATUS: Has been consolidating on its 50 day MVA (68.59), having gradually pulled back off of its high of 73.98. KMP has been an excellent performer, and has made slow, healthy pullbacks and consolidations on its 50 day before when making its solid move over the past year. It jumped up from the 68 level the last couple of sessions, but gapped up and pulled back today, holding to close on the 18 day MVA (69.32). We need to see it come back with something sustained, but the oil and gas sector is just not as strong as it was.
BUY POINT: A move back over 72 on above average volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $70 calls (KMP FN).

MERQ (Mercury Interactive--$58.74; +1.89; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/merq.html
STATUS: Has fallen back out of its recent range, but found support twice at the 50 level, this time making a more sustained move up. It has moved up three consecutive days on increasing volume (5 million; average 4.4 million), taking out what had been resistance on the last move up, the 10 day MVA (56.56). It is now just under the 50 day (59.77), pulling back to close after tapping over that level at its high of 60.35. We will see if the momentum can continue in a strong market; if there is weakness in the market, we will continue to watch for a move back down to the recent low at 50.
BUY POINT: Upside: In a rally, a move over 60.35 on continued strong volume. Downside: A mov back below the 10 day on continued strong volume in a weak market.
POSITION: Upside: October $55 calls to buy (RQB JK). Downside: August $70 puts to buy (RQB TN).

MIKE (Michaels Stores--$38.60; +0.55; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mike.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that MIKE has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-13-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: MIKE is trying to bounce back up in its handle from the 50 day MVA (36.86). The stock was looking good in a decent handle to a cup, but dropped back to test the 50 day, perhaps shaking out a bit. However, it pulled back to close today after hitting up to 39.44, so we could see a move back to the 50 day before a move back up. At any rate, we will look for a breakout.
BUY POINT: Over 40.92 on volume of 330,000 (average 220,000; today 162,700). Stop: 38.05.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $35 calls to buy (IKQ IF).

POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:

BRCD (Brocade--$40.92; +1.85; optionable (UBF): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcd.html
STATUS: Has moved back up the last few days, but is struggling now at its 50 day MVA (40.94), which is also the point of its short-term down trendline connecting May and June highs. BRCD should do well in a market that shows some strength, but it will have to run through this resistance. The prior June high is 48.94.
PLAY: Aggressive: In a strong Nasdaq, a move over 43 on above average volume (down to 13.9 million today; average 15 million), with October $40 calls to buy (UBF JH).

EMLX (Emulex--$37.61; +2.98; optionable (UMQ): Computer Hardware: Peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/emlx.html
STATUS: EMLX has been dormant for a while, trading in a range between 30 and its 10 day MVA (34.31), but today it made a strong move, taking out its 50 day MVA (35.86) with strong volume (up to 6.5 million; average 6.3 million). It has been a while, but the stock has an early June high at 39.09 it must contend with, but in some market strength we could see a move here.
PLAY: In a strong market, a move over 40 on increased volume, with October $35 calls to buy (UMQ JG).

ESRX (Express Scripts--$53.06; +1.96; optionable): Split 2:1 effective on or about June 25.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
STATUS: ESRX made a great run into the split, and showed a bit of weakness right at the split, but has stabilized a bit over its 18 day MVA (52.35). Today the stock showed a 'shooting star' doji on that level as it moves in a handle of a cup dating back to late December. We will see if it holds on or finally tests the 50 day (49.15), looking at the handle high at 55.82.
PLAY: 55.95 on volume of 1 million (way down to 392,400 today), with stock and/or August $50 calls to buy (HTQ HJ - next expiration out is November).

FHCC (First Health--$26.20; +0.11; optionable): Insurance Broker. Split 2:1 effective 6-26-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fhcc.html
STATUS: Made a great pre-split move that continued the day of the split, but it crashed back to the 50 day MVA (24.90), today bouncing up from that level after a gap down. We will see if it can get the momentum back or form a decent pattern, but we will not give it much time. If the move does not hold, we will consider downside if it gives up the 50 day.
PLAY: Aggressive: A move over 27 (high 28.80) on continued strong volume (down to 1.6 million today; average 685,000), with stock and/or October $25 calls to buy (FHQ JE - low open interest).

FIC (Fair Isaac--$60.76; +3.22; optionable): Split 3:2 effective June 5.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fic.html
STATUS: Business services. Simply relentless, FIC broke out yet again from a small ascending wedge this week, and today blasted up on big volume to a new high. It has run out of 'chasing' range (5% of the breakout, which was 56.27), so we will see if it tests this breakout. The stock has made a great run for us since breaking out from a cup with handle in January back in the 35 range, forming more patterns on top of patterns, continuing to break out. Still shows strong money flow and buying, with relative strength breaking out.
PLAY: Aggressive: A move up after a test back toward 57.50, with stock and/or October $55 calls to buy (FIC JK - but not showing any open interest on these new issues).

JNJ (Johnson&Johnson--$52.20; +1.50; optionable): Drugs. Split 2:1 June 12.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnj.html
STATUS: Made a nice bounce today from the 50 day MVA (49.94), which we expect from strong stocks with institutional support. JNJ had steadily pulled back from its recent high of 54.20 made on its impressive post-split run, but is back over its 10 day MVA (51.75) with today's move, which came on lower volume (8.41 million; average 9 million). A momentum play, watching the high for resistance and protecting positions.
PLAY: Aggressive: A move up from here on above average volume, with stock and/or October $50 calls to buy (JNJ JJ). Stop: 48.36 (50 day MVA at 49.82).

LH (Laboratory Corp--$77.70; +2.25; optionable): Health Services. Split 2:1 June 11.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lh.html
STATUS: Has been trying to hold on post-split, moving in a handle to its cup (dating back to the beginning of the year). It tested its 50 day MVA (73.27) the preceding two sessions, and made a move up today on strong volume (716,700; average 478,600), closing back over the 10 day (77.04). The handle high is back at 82.50. Solid relative strength and money flow.
PLAY: Aggressive: A move back over 81 on increased volume, with stock and/or August $75 calls to buy (LH HO).

LNCR (Lincare Holdings--$32.22; +0.81; optionable): Health Services. Split 2:1 effective 6-25-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lncr.html
STATUS: Showed some weakness going into the split, but has held its 18 day MVA (31.29), which has been support on the steep upleg the stock has been on since starting its pre-split run at the beginning of the month. It gave a bit of a bounce today, so we will see if it is sustained or if it needs to test its 50 day MVA, back at 29.73.
PLAY: Aggressive momentum: A move over 32.75 with continued strong volume (up to 933,900; average 596,000), with stock and/or October $30 calls to buy (LQN JF).

SEBL (Siebel--$46.09; +1.94; optionable) (SGW): Application Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sebl.html
STATUS: Another stock that has been battling resistance, but SEBL made a good move over its 50 day MVA (44.57) today, although it pulled back to close from its intraday high of 48.03. Looking for it to hold the 50 day and make a move in a strong market. It is just below a short-term down trendline connecting May and June highs.
PLAY: Aggressive: A move over 48 on increased volume (15.9 million today; average 16.6 million), with August $45 calls to buy (SGW HI - next expiration is November).

WFMI (Whole Foods--$27.24; +0.48; optionable): Grocery Stores. Split 2:1 June 5.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
STATUS: Has formed a long handle to a cup pattern, but after dropping out of a nice, flat consolidation and testing its 50 day MVA (26.39), the stock has bounced a bit. Not a strong move, however, with today's action on volume of 402,500 (average 479,000). Will need to see something stronger that will push it back up to the breakout.
PLAY: Aggressive: Over the recent consolidation high of 28.50 on above average volume. Breakout: 29.55 on volume of 720,000, with stock and/or August $27.50 calls to buy (FMQ HY).

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

us stock market
trend trading stock