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trend trading stock, stock trading site
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11/26/03 Stock Split Report
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Stock Split Report Subscribers:
Happy Thanksgiving!
Thanksgiving Holiday Schedule:
The stock market will be closed Thursday November 27 and will close at 1:00ET Friday November 28. Reports will issue as usual Monday and Tuesday. Barring any major market event, the following is the report schedule for that week:
Monday and Tuesday: Normal reports issue
Wednesday: Market update, play tables
Saturday: Market update, highlight best plays for Monday, play tables
Alerts: Will issue as normal.
MARKET ALERTS
Targets hit alerts issued Wednesday: None issued
Buy alerts issued: NANO (Bonus); PDII; ECSI
Trailing stops issued: None issued
Stop alerts issued: MIK; SWIR
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. You can sign up for Stock Split Report alerts at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertssr.htm
SUMMARY:
- Gentle drift higher on low volume.
- Superb economic data yet again.
- On tap for another gentle rise on Friday.
A test lower and a drift higher, right on script.
The market performed in a typical pre-Thanksgiving fashion with a gentle rise, though less than we anticipated. It was muted by a test lower toward the 18 day MVA, something we also expected but the rally off that level was not that strong. Low volume, decent breadth, modest rise trading within near support and resistance and in line with the ongoing uptrend.
THE ECONOMY
There could have been reason for more celebration. Jobless claims were their lowest since January 2001, durable goods orders surged, the Chicago PMI raced higher, and Michigan sentiment was solid. That news certainly did not hurt, but it did not induce a starry eyed buying frenzy.
Jobless claims continue the solid trend lower.
351K, the lowest since the week of January 20, 2001, better than the 360K expected and the 362K the prior week. The 4 week average was down as well at 358K. As we stated back in August, that level would engender significant job creation. That creation has already started, and we should see the 'significant' portion start to show in next Friday's employment report. Continuing claims were also positive, showing a drop to 3.36M, a significant drop off.
Durable goods orders surge.
October orders jumped 3.3%, easily topping the measly 0.7% expected. Moreover, September orders were revised upward to a 2.1% gain from 1.1%. Those upward revisions show the strengthening trend. The increases were the biggest in 16 months (8.1% in July 2002). Communications equipment jumped 25% after a 15% rise in September. After a long drought communications are now a growth area again. Non-defense capital spending rose 1.7%, down from the 5.8% in October. That was disappointing, but it is still clear that businesses are just starting to ramp up their spending again.
November Chicago PMI leaps ahead.
64.1 versus the 56.5 expected and 55 in October. New orders surged to 73.3 from 59. Backlog of orders jumped to 59 from 47. Production hit 62 versus 62. Solid, solid, solid, and solid. The only disappointment was the employment sub-index that fell to 48 from 53. Employment will come. With this kind of growth, employment is just around the corner.
Spending and income match estimates, but that is not that great.
Despite all the other data, many harped on the problem with the consumer. Spending was flat. Incomes were up 0.3%. Both in line. That had some economists worrying about 'sustainability. First, business spending is really ramping up after being gone for three years. That was the missing link in the economy. Second, consumption was flat in a historically slow month. So it was flat with levels that have turned in big gains in consumption by the consumer, consumption that contributed to an 8.2% GDP rise in Q3. We don't see that as necessarily bad, particularly given the typically slower October. Moreover, September spending was revised higher to 0.0% from -0.3%. Again, that was part of the spending that was so robust in Q3. Third, personal spending rose a solid 0.4% and September was revised to a 0.4% gain as well, up from 0.3%. These don't look like the harbinger of slack times ahead as some attributed them to. Of course, many view things in a textbook, clinical fashion without any real world, common sense considerations.
Beige Book positive.
And by the way, the Fed notes that things are improving across all areas of the economy. Thanks for the heads up guys.
THE MARKET
A tap toward the 18 day MVA in the morning session led to a drift higher in the afternoon. SP500 actually closed on a session high as all indexes were well off their intraday lows to close. No breakouts to a new high, just a drift higher within the near support and resistance levels, but that is about what you expect on such a day. Actually we expected a bit more, but the script went pretty much according to plan. The missing link were the small caps. We expected they would provide more leadership, but they were up just 0.1%, bringing up the rear. Looks as if the drift is mainly larger cap, but that leaves the small caps in position to lead when the early 'January' effect takes hold.
Market Sentiment
VIX: 16.23; -0.48
VXN: 25.63; -0.36
VXO: 15.91; -0.38
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.72; +0.10. Crept higher on an up session, an indication of not a lot of faith in the move. That is fine.
NASDAQ
Modest gain after a tap of the 18 day MVA (1928) on the low. Low volume and nothing spectacular, just a rise within the uptrend as Nasdaq comes off of a test of the bottom of the trading range.
Stats: +10.27 points (+0.53%) to close at 1953.31
Volume: 1.525B (-17.95%)
Up Volume: 1.045B (-35M)
Down Volume: 438M (-303M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.36 to 1. Pretty weak breadth, but it was a pretty weak session.
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.44 to 1
New Highs: 286 (-31)
New Lows: 5 (-11)
The Chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/^ixq.html
S&P 500/NYSE
The best performance of the indexes other than SOX (0.5%), testing the 10 day MVA (1048) on the low and rallying in the afternoon to close at a session high. No volume of course, but a decent gain after providing the anchor at support for the rest of the market. Approaching the November highs at 1064, the next important test for the index. That may be all it can get before the market resumes in more force on Monday and volume returns.
Stats: +4.56 points (+0.43%) to close at 1058.45
NYSE Volume: 1.105B (-16.5%)
Up Volume: 798M (-120M)
Down Volume: 295M (-104M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.02 to 1. Very nice breadth even with the small caps lagging.
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.15 to 1
New Highs: 350 (+30)
New Lows: 5 (-2)
The Chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/^spx.html
DJ30:
Stats: +15.63 points (+0.16%) to close at 9779.57
Volume: 162M versus 174M.
Continued the move up off of the 50 day MVA test, managing another very modest gain. It too tested lower, undercutting the 18 day MVA (9732) before rallying back for that modest gain. It still has the uptrend to retake that is now near the November highs (9903). Nothing special about the move, just a drift higher along with the rest of the market.
FRIDAY
No economic data and just a half session of trading. Typically the Friday after Thanksgiving is a rise, and with the uptrend that is something we anticipate. As SP500 is near its November highs that might put a cap on the action, yielding another session of gains similar to Wednesday. We will be watching that resistance level and also how the small caps perform. They were laggards Wednesday and we are looking for them to assume a leadership as the market moves toward Christmas.
Friday we are looking for a continued rise within the range and will focus on those plays in good patterns that make solid moves. That does not mean necessarily strong volume given the half day; we will extrapolate the volume and make decisions based on that. We were doing that today, and we also still saw good volume breaks higher.
Support and Resistance
Nasdaq: Closed at 1953.31
Resistance: 1975 is some resistance. November high (1992). The January 2002 double top (2044 to 2099).
Support: The 18 day MVA (1928). The March/August up trendline (1924). The September high (1913). The 50 day MVA (1899). 1875 to 1880 is the bottom of the week's range.
S&P 500: Closed at 1058.45
Resistance: November high (1062-1064). The December to June upper channel line at 1080. 1080 from February 2002 lows. 1100 represents some early 2001 lows. 1150 to 1175, the early 2002 double top.
Support: The 18 day MVA (1047) and the 10 day MVA (1048). The exponential 50 day MVA (1037). 1030 to 1032 (early September highs). The top of the summer range at 1015. 1010 the early September highs. 975 (December 1997 peak).
Dow: Closed at 9779.57
Resistance: The October high (9850). The November high (9903). The March/September up trendline (9900). 10,000.
Support: The 18 day MVA (9732). 9686 (September high; 9659 intraday). The exponential 50 day MVA (9657). 9588 the early September highs. 9500 (June 2002 lows) is the top of the summer range.
Economic Calendar
11-25-03
GDP, 1st revision Q3 (8:30): 8.2% actual, 7.6% expected, 7.2% prior.
Consumer confidence, October (10:00): 91.7 actual, 85.0 expected, 81.7 September.
Existing home sales, October (10:00): -4.6% (6.35M) actual, 6.53M expected, 6.68M September.
11-26-03
Personal income, October (8:30): 0.4% actual, 0.4% expected, 0.4% September (revised from 0.3%).
Personal spending, October (8:30): 0.0% actual, 0.0% expected, 0.0% September (revised from -0.3%).
Durable goods orders, October, (8:30): 3.3% actual, 0.7% expected, 2.1% September (revised from 08.%).
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 351K actual, 360K expected, 362K prior (revised from 355K).
Michigan sentiment revised (9:45): 93.7 actual, 94.0 expected, 93.5 prior.
New home sales, October (10:00): 1.105 (-3.5%) actual, 1.13M expected, 1.15M September.
Chicago PMI, November (10:00): 64.1 actual, 56.5 expected, 55.0 October.
Fed Beige Book (12:00)
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; PreAnn=Pre-Announcement split; PreSplt=Pre-split; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
^OEX 11/06 A Wedge 66.8 +1.67 523.15 545 211K 650K 518.55
Current.
APA 11/06 Test 50 71.92 +0.32 70.38 75.55 753K 1.8M 70.21
Current.
APOL 11/22 DB hdl 69.23 +0.18 66.54 82 1.1M 2.9M 65.75
Current.
APPB 10/13 BO 38.42 +0.43 37.55 44.95 258K 750K 36.84
Current.
AZO 11/22 Test 50 95.95 -0.05 95.12 105 398K 1.7M 92.34
Current.
BLUD 10/21 A Wedge 22.85 +0.57 20.82 23.91 140K 320K 20.62
Current.
BSX 10/23 Test 50 35.24 -0.23 33.4 37.5 3.3M 4M 34
Current.
BSX 09/29 Test 50 35.24 -0.23 32.72 34.73 3.3M 4.5M 34
Current.
CATS 10/27 Test BO 8 -0.25 7.98 9.55 134K 145K 7.42
Current.
CBRL 11/24 Cup hdl 41.01 +0.37 41.58 49.92 287K 756K 39.96
Buy Not Hit.
CLEC 10/30 Cup hdl 5.7 -0.01 5.54 6.94 20K 96K 5.15
Buy Not Issued.
COO 11/01 DB hdl 44.88 +0.23 44.06 50.88 143K 550K 42.88
Current.
CPTV 08/26 Cup hdl 12.41 +0.16 6.5 8.12 87K 200K 11.65
Current.
CY 11/17 Test 18 22.42 -0.11 22.31 26.45 4.3M 4.6M 21.65
Current.
DCGN 09/20 Test BO 8.21 -0.27 4.32 5.38 356K 315K 7.81
Current.
DIOD 11/04 Cup hdl 19.1 +0.17 27.56 32.35 107K 75K 25.63
Buy Not Issued.
DJO 09/11 Cup 25.92 -0.48 14 16.45 98K 100K 22.86
Current.
EASI 10/14 A Wedge 53.09 +0.95 44.06 50 288K 287K 47.38
Current.
EBAY 08/02 PreSplt 55.6 +0.33 53.78 60 6.6M 9M 53.94
Current.
EBAY 03/08 BO 55.6 +0.33 40.04 46 6.6M 8M 53.94
Current.
ECSI 11/20 Test 18 7.46 +0.37 7.48 8.88 177K 221K 6.79
Current.
EDMC 11/20 Test 18 67.49 -0.56 64.75 75.45 251K 375K 63.22
Buy Not Issued.
EMBT 10/06 Flat 14.41 -0.2 11.24 13.38 277K 350K 14.27
Current.
EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 14.41 -0.2 9.33 11.12 277K 400K 14.27
Current.
FOSL 11/12 DB hdl 28.75 -0.24 28.75 33.55 240K 369K 27.85
Current.
FOSL 11/01 DB hdl 28.75 -0.24 28.17 33.55 240K 369K 27.85
Current.
GPRO 11/12 Cup hdl 33.75 +1.14 30.85 36.95 950K 1.1M 29.71
Current.
GRMN 11/24 Cup hdl 56.01 +0.85 54.38 62 451K 690K 50.78
Current.
GRMN 11/09 Cup hdl 56.01 +0.85 53.82 62 451K 690K 50.78
Current.
HAR 11/13 Test 18 134.92 +0.22 125.28 133.55 179K 325K 122.88
Current.
HOTT 11/19 Test 50 29.63 -0.3 28.55 34 824K 1M 27.34
Current.
HSIC 11/09 Flat 66.8 -0.27 64.02 73.62 211K 494K 64.05
Buy Not Issued.
IGT 09/16 Rv H&S 34.05 +0.04 29.05 34.55 1.2M 4.7M 32.42
Current.
ILMN 11/25 Flat 6.74 -0.17 7.02 8.45 803K 107K 6.48
Buy Not Issued.
JAH 11/22 Test BO 40.85 -0.55 41.42 47.48 285K 205K 40.23
Buy Not Issued.
KSWS 11/19 Test BO 48.25 +1.4 44.72 51 354K 225K 43.25
Current.
MBG 11/18 Cup hdl 42.45 +0.44 42.58 51 534K 1.8M 40.62
Buy Not Hit.
MDS 11/09 Cup 15.2 +0.12 14.28 17.21 83K 120K 13.88
Current.
MGAM 11/15 Test BO 40.91 +0.48 42.44 50 210K 834K 41.44
Current.
MIK 11/04 A Wedge 46.6 -1.15 49 58.74 1.4M 873K 46.88
Exited.
MRVC 11/25 A Wedge 3.81 -0.1 4.01 5.05 2.3M 2M 3.71
Buy Not Hit.
NANO 11/26 Pennant 14.5 +1.74 13.93 16.75 653K 450K 12.88
Current. Saw the strong volume move off the 50 day MVA in the
10 week base showing soild 3 to 0 accumulation so issued
the alert and moved in.
NFI 11/22 Cup hdl 78.1 +1 77.62 78 164K 365K 73.82
Buy Not Issued.
NSIT 11/15 A Wedge 18.76 +0.04 19.06 22.88 366K 819K 17.94
Buy Not Hit.
NSM 09/17 BO 43.59 +0.67 35.35 42 3.5M 5M 39.22
Current.
PDII 11/25 Flat 28.38 -0.42 29.82 35.48 357K 275K 26.99
Current.
PIR 11/09 Test BO 25.5 -0.18 25.7 30.62 464K 1.6M 24.98
Current.
PX 11/20 Test 50 72.09 -0.06 68.72 77.45 929K 950K 66.82
Buy Not Issued.
RI 09/30 Cup hdl 28.97 -0.03 27.72 33 254K 750K 28.04
ROST 11/20 Test 50 54.91 -0.07 54.59 62 521K 1M 52.97
Current.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 32.08 +0.57 30.35 36.75 2.8M 6M 29.94
Current.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 32.08 +0.57 26.3 30.94 2.8M 6M 29.94
Current.
SHFL 11/22 Cup hdl 30.1 +0.18 30.48 36.55 163K 425K 29.12
Buy Not Hit.
SOHU 10/24 Dbl btm 34.4 -0.01 37.69 45 1.9M 9M 34.85
Current.
SONC 11/22 Test BO 30.88 +0.06 30.65 36.78 136K 500K 29.35
Buy Not Issued.
SWIR 11/15 Cup 17.53 -0.88 19.31 23.12 3.2M 1M 19.06
Exited.
TIWI 10/16 Cup hdl 7.8 -0.09 5.57 7 140K 350K 7.38
Current.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 43.15 -0.1 28.06 31.44 285K 494K 39.94
Current.
TSCO 07/05 Test 50 43.15 -0.1 26.62 30 285K 500K 39.94
Current.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 43.15 -0.1 23.42 27.62 285K 603K 39.94
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 43.15 -0.1 21.88 26 285K 603K 39.94
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 43.15 -0.1 19.3 22.19 285K 577K 39.94
Current.
TVIA 11/24 Test BO 2.95 +0.19 2.7 3.38 367K 265K 2.48
Current.
TVIA 11/04 Cup hdl 2.95 +0.19 2.62 3.34 367K 219K 2.38
Current.
ULGX 11/13 DB hdl 5.44 0 5.94 7.45 15K 130K 5.32
Buy Not Hit.
UOPX 11/03 Test 50 74.77 +0.91 71.12 84 269K 315K 59.48
Current.
UOPX 10/25 Test 50 74.77 +0.91 68.95 82 269K 315K 69.48
Current.
URBN 10/18 Rv H&S 38.4 -0.28 33.61 40 712K 953K 34.74
Current.
UTSI 11/22 Test 50 37.7 +0.71 36.88 44 2.3M 6.4M 34.64
Current.
VAR 10/28 Cup hdl 68.41 +0.36 64.5 74.25 200K 1.1M 65.42
Current.
VARI 11/24 Test BO 40.68 -0.06 40.85 49 101K 260K 39.22
Buy Not Issued.
VARI 11/03 Cup hdl 40.68 -0.06 39.21 46.88 101K 260K 38.38
Current.
VECO 11/20 A Wedge 29.07 -0.13 28.94 34.72 804K 812K 26.91
Buy Not Issued.
WMS 11/21 Dbl btm 26.87 +0.07 25.83 31.22 210K 650K 24.66
Current.
XLNX 11/12 DB hdl 37.29 +0.5 34.78 41 4.9M 11M 34.64
Current.
XLNX 11/01 DB hdl 37.29 +0.5 32.68 38.68 4.9M 11M 34.64
Current.
ZBRA 11/15 Test 18 63.16 +1.35 61.58 70.88 246K 693K 59.98
Current.
ZMH 08/09 Test BO 65.49 +0.41 51.12 59.55 622K 3M 63.12
Current.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ERES 11/18 Put 40.55 +0.49 38.98 34.88 397K 1.3M 39.94
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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