|
|
trend trading stock, stock watch
Begin Part 4 of 4
ADVP (Advancepcs--$64.05; +0.35; optionable): Health services. We are working on a date for this one.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/advp.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 10-12-99 at a stock price of $50. The annual shareholder meeting was on 12-7-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company does not have sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split, but does have sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
STATUS: ADVP has recovered from a drop through its 50 day MVA (60), a drop which was looking serious. Instead of sinking, the stock has made a steady recovery, but on rather tame volume, which was a concern before its recent drop. It is currently using the short-term MVA's for support, Friday tapping the 10 day at its low of 62.20 before recovering to close with a doji. No real pattern here, but we will see if it can hold support and make a strong move at the high of 68.59. Relative strength is still solid.
BUY POINT: Aggressive momentum: After holding the 10 day, a strong move back over 65.50, looking for above average volume (794,000; Friday 816,000).
POSITION: Stock and/or September $60 calls to buy (QVD IL).
PRE-SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS: With these stocks we keep an eye out, waiting for the start of a pre-split run.
New Pre-Split Plays:
RAVN (Raven Ind--$26.89; +0.04; no options): Textile Manufacturing. Splits 3:2 effective July 16. Thinly traded, but we had good success with these this year.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/ravn.html
STATUS: Made an outstanding move in May and early June, rising from 19 up to 28, but has since pulled back into a nice, tight consolidation of dojis over its 10 day MVA (26.75). There have been a few 'get ready' volume spikes in the past two weeks, with volume on the rest of the sessions very low, like Friday's volume of 1400 (average 5772). That is a thinly traded stock, but although we in most circumstances avoid them because of liquidity issues, with pre-splits we have had quite a bit of success on the report taking positions with these thinly traded stocks. TWRI immediately comes to mind in that regard. Excellent relative strength and good buying.
PLAY: On a move over 27.25 on average or better volume, stock.
Continuing Pre-Split Play:
LOW (Lowe's--$72.55; -2.85): Splits 2:1 on July 2.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/low.html
STATUS: Made a great run for us, but pulled back the last week going into Monday's split. Friday saw the stock dip back through its 18 day MVA (73.94), and it looks like the stock is headed for a test of its 50 day MVA, at 69.40. Not much room for a put play down to that level, but we will see if it shows a test back up to the former support, and we will watch for strong post-split selling back from there.
PLAY: Aggressive: A move down on continued strong selling volume (up to 3.61 million Friday; average 3 million) after a test of the 18 day MVA that fails, with August $80 puts to buy (LOW TP).
CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.
ACF (Americredit--$51.95; -1.20; optionable): Credit Services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acf.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-18-98 at a stock price of $35. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-7-00 at which time no authorized shares were increased. The company does not have sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split, but does have sufficient shares for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: ACF has made a pretty nice move up from its 50 day MVA (47.82), surging up Wednesday and Thursday after a brief, tight consolidation over its its short-term MVA's (10 day at 51.11). Thursday's move could not hold, however, as the stock pulled back from the 55 level (the all-time high), and it continued down Friday on strong volume (1.82 million; average 1 million). The stock has formed a series of cups as it has moved up over the past year, but made a great move in April and May, and might need some more time to consolidate and form the current base (which started in late May).
BUY POINT: Aggressive: After holding support at the 10 day on a low-volume pullback, a move back over 52.50 on continued strong volume. Stop: 47.35. Breakout: Over 55 with continued strong volume. Stop: 51.15.
POSITION: Both buy points: Stock and/or August $50 calls to buy (ACF HJ).
ASFC (Astoria Financial--$55.00; -3.30; optionable): Savings and Loan.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asfc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split its stock in 1996 with the split at a price of $56. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-16-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: This stock has been in something of a rolling range, and had made a very strong surge back up toward its high of 58.55 the last few days. However, it turned back from that level yet again Friday, and the 'roll' down was very abrupt. Friday's move back was not typical of other drops, but was characterized by very high volume selling that plunged the stock well below its 50 day MVA (56.37) and just below its May low (55.17). We will see if it can bounce back over the 50 day MVA next week as it is still in split range, but this is not healthy action. If a test of the 50 day fails, we could have a put play with a target of 52.
BUY POINT: After a failed test of the 50 day, a move back down below 55 on continued strong selling volume.
POSITION: August $60 puts to buy (AQR TL).
CBH (Commerce Bancorp--$70.10; -0.80; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbh.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 5:4 split on 6-29-98. The stock price was $54.63. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-20-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has insufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: CBH is trying a move back up. The stock had made a weak breakout from a cup with handle pattern, but after falling back and showing a possible head and shoulders pattern it has made a recovery. After making its way back over its 50 day MVA (67.90), the stock made a good move earlier this week before stalling the last couple of sessions. Off of Thursday's doji the stock pulled back some Friday, but volume was huge on the small move (493,100; average 152,700). We will see if it can hold the 10 day MVA (69.21) for an assault at its high of 72.90.
BUY POINT: A move up on continued strong volume after a lower-volume pullback that holds the 10 day. Stop: Just below recent lows at 66.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $65 calls to buy (CBH IM).
CECO (Career Education--$59.90; -0.10; no options):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-1-00 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $57. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-11-01 at 1:00 pm CDT at which time additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split without increasing authorized shares.
STATUS: Has made three very sharp, strong moves up off of its 10 day MVA (57.97) recently, with Wednesday's jump coming on very strong volume. After showing a topping sign Thursday when it gapped up and dropped back, CECO tested back close the 10 day at its low of 58.75 Friday before pulling back up a bit to close. The stock had been moving steadily moving up along its 50 day MVA (52.70), but has taken off and is now on a steeper incline, so we will carefully watch its action at the 10 day on the current move. We will see if it can hold that level again on a pullback, looking for a run back up toward our target of 65. With the steeper trend and solid volume we will be diligent with stops. The stock shows excellent money flow, buying, and relative strength.
BUY POINT: After a pullback that holds the 10 day, a move back up on above average volume. Stop: 53.91 (50 day MVA at 53).
POSITION: Stock only.
CHBS (Christopher & Banks--$32.60; +1.57; optionable): No announcement this week.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chbs.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 stock split on 1-17-01 at a price of $34. Before that CHBS also had 3:2 splits in July of 2000 at $35 and in December 1999 at $26.
STATUS: After Wednesday's strong drop the stock has bounced back again, challenging the recent resistance of its 10 day MVA (32.48), and closing just above it Friday. Volume on this bounce has been huge, bigger than we saw on the selling (up to 1.42 million Friday; average 543,200). We will see how it handles the 18 day MVA (33.85, near recent highs), and on a drop back from there, we can carefully look at puts back toward the recent lows at 29.45 (200 day MVA at 28.54).
BUY POINT: After a failure of this move at the 18 day MVA, a drop back below the 10 day on continued strong volume.
POSITION: August $40 puts to buy (URH TH - check deltas, etc. with your broker).
IGT (International Game Technology--$62.75; +1.30; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research, it does not appear that IGT has ever announced a split. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-5-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: IGT has steadily pulled back to its 50 day MVA (59.87), taking a bounce the last couple of sessions from that level (there are also late-May and mid-June lows in that range). This pullback is somewhat typical of what the stock has done before making solid moves up while in the current trend, but it is getting pretty extended after several runs over the past year. We are looking for a strong move, but will use care with stops. The high is 66.04.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over the up trendline (from September 2000-January closing lows) at 63.25, with above average volume (up 752,900 Friday; average 795,000). Stop: 58.59.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $60 calls to buy (IGT GL).
KMP (Kinder Morgan--$68.76; -0.49):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmp.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that KMP has ever split its stock. KMP is a master limited partnership and therefore does not have annual shareholder meetings.
STATUS: Has been consolidating on its 50 day MVA (68.60), having gradually pulled back off of its high of 73.98. KMP has been an excellent performer, and has made slow, healthy pullbacks and consolidations on its 50 day before when making its solid move over the past year. It jumped up from the 68 level this week, but has pulled back the last couple of days on volume that remains tame, Friday at 90,000 (average 132,700). We need to see it come back with something sustained, but the oil and gas sector is just not as strong as it was and thus we are wary.
BUY POINT: A move back over 72 on above average volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $70 calls (KMP FN).
POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
BAX (Baxter International--$50.50; -2.53; optionable): Health Services. Split 2:1 effective 5-30-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bax.html
STATUS: Well, a stock makes a solid move out of a sound base, and that can, paradoxically, be a recipe for an analyst downgrade. The stock, which had made a great run post-split, gapped down on the news, testing 48.47 at its low (50 day MVA at 49.33) before running back up. Volume was huge at 6.55 million (average 1.68 million). Strong stocks can overcome this type of downgrade, so we will see if BAX can hold the 50 day and build for a move back up. Nothing for now as we wait to see just how strong BAX is; leaders overcome analyst downgrades.
BRCD (Brocade--$43.99; +3.07; optionable (UBF): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcd.html
STATUS: BRCD is a stock that we expect to show strength in a stronger market, and it has made a good move up this week, albeit on rather weak volume (down Friday to 10.9 million; average is 15 million). After this move we will see if the stock can hold the 50 day MVA on a low-volume pullback (41.06, with its short-term down trendline connecting May and June highs). The prior June high is 48.94.
PLAY: Aggressive: In a strong Nasdaq, a move up from the 50 day after holding that level on a lower-volume pullback, with October $35 calls to buy (UBF JG).
EMLX (Emulex--$40.40; +2.79; optionable (UMQ): Computer Hardware: Peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/emlx.html
STATUS: EMLX has been dormant for a while, trading in a range between 30 and its 10 day MVA (35.42), but this week it charged back through that level and took out its 50 day MVA (36.04) Thursday. Unlike some of its tech brethren on the report, EMLX showed solid volume on its move up Thursday, though it tamed a bit in the bizarre Friday market (5.13 million; average 6.3 million). Friday it hit as high at 43.55, but pulled back off of that level to close. That action could spell a pullback, but we will look for it to hold the 50 day or perhaps the 38 range for a move back up in a good market. The May high is 49.55.
PLAY: After a pullback to the 37-38 range, a move back up on increased volume in a strong market, with October $35 calls to buy (UMQ JG).
ESRX (Express Scripts--$55.03; +2.09; optionable): Split 2:1 effective on or about June 25.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
STATUS: ESRX is holding on post-split, forming a handle to a cup pattern that dates back to late-December. Friday it was all over the map, dipping as low as 51.36 and breaking to a new high at 58 to the upside. It ended up closing with a nice gain, moving on very solid volume (up to 1.61 million; average 662,900). With the close so far off of the high we would look for a pullback; however, it is not easy to gauge as Friday saw the technical problems, which exacerbated issues relating to normal quarter-ending portfolio shuffling. Nonetheless, we will see if the stock can hold onto the 10 day MVA (53.36) on a pullback.
PLAY: After a pullback on lower volume holds the 10 day MVA, a run back over 56 on above average volume, with stock and/or August $50 calls to buy (HTQ HJ - next expiration out is November).
FHCC (First Health--$24.12; -2.08; optionable): Insurance Broker. Split 2:1 effective 6-26-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fhcc.html
STATUS: After the relief bounce Thursday from the 50 day MVA (24.87), FHCC fell hard Friday, taking out that support. Volume remained strong (up to 1.67 million; average 705,500), and we will see if we get a test of the 50 day followed by more selling. If we do, then a put play down to the recent low at 22.58 (200 day MVA at 21.83) is a possible play on continued post-split weakness.
PLAY: After a failed test of the 50 day, selling back down on continued strong volume, with August $30 puts to buy (FHQ TF).
FIC (Fair Isaac--$61.82; +1.06; optionable): Split 3:2 effective June 5.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fic.html
STATUS: Business services. Simply relentless, FIC has been an outstanding performer on the report for months. The stock broke out yet again from a small ascending wedge this week, and after another very strong move Thursday, inched up some more Friday. Volume remained solid (211,300; average 99,500) as the stock showed a 'spinning top,' which typically is not much of a signal. However, after this run the stock is overextended to chase, so we will see if it can pull back gently and test back toward 58. A move back up from there would still be quite aggressive, as this stock is due for a pullback and test of its 50 day MVA (at 50.70). Still shows strong money flow and buying, with relative strength breaking out.
PLAY: Aggressive: A move up after a test back toward 57-58, with stock and/or October $55 calls to buy (FIC JK - very low open interest as FIC just became optionable).
JNJ (Johnson&Johnson--$49.96; -2.24; optionable): Drugs. Split 2:1 June 12.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnj.html
STATUS: A bit erratic at the moment, pulling back to the 50 day MVA (49.94) after having made a bounce from that level the previous session. Volume was much heavier on the selling back, and the stock hit as low as 49.13 before recovering a bit. JNJ made a solid post-split move (breakout of cup with handle), hitting 54.20 before a steady pullback the last week or so. With the heavy selling we will see if it can hold here. The 50 day MVA is an important level, and we usually sell if a stock breaks it and cannot jump right back over it.
PLAY: Aggressive momentum: A move back over 52.60 on continued strong volume, with stock and/or October $50 calls to buy (JNJ JJ). It might take some time. Stop: 48.92.
LH (Laboratory Corp--$76.90; -0.80; optionable): Health Services. Split 2:1 June 11.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lh.html
STATUS: Has been trying to hold on post-split, moving in a handle to its cup (dating back to the beginning of the year). It tested its 50 day MVA (73.41) twice at lows this week, and has edged back up and is now at its 18 day MVA (76.61) after dipping slightly Friday. The handle high is back at 82.50. Solid relative strength and money flow.
PLAY: Aggressive: A move back over 81 on continued solid volume (up Friday to 892,700; average 481,500), with stock and/or August $75 calls to buy (LH HO).
LNCR (Lincare Holdings--$30.01; -2.21; optionable): Health Services. Split 2:1 effective 6-25-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lncr.html
STATUS: Dropped back hard, taking out recent support at the 18 day MVA (31.16) and closing just above the 50 day (29.75). We will not chase it down on a put play, but will see if it takes out the support of the 50 day, and if so, watch for a test and 'kiss goodbye.' A ways to go to get to that point, so we will check back with it next week.
SEBL (Siebel--$46.90; +0.81; optionable) (SGW): Application Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sebl.html
STATUS: SEBL is another tech that made a nice move up this week, taking out its 50 day MVA (44.61), but struggling a bit at its short-term down trendline connecting May and June highs. The stock closed on that resistance Friday, with the stock showing a loose doji on lower volume of 10.6 million (average 16.6 million). We will see if it can hold the 50 day, and watch for a strong move back up.
PLAY: After holding the 50 day on a pullback, a move back over 47 on increased volume in a strong market, with August $45 calls to buy (SGW HI - next expiration is November).
USPH (U.S. Physical Therapy--$15.97; -0.02; no options): Health Services. Split 3:2 effective June 29.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/usph.html
STATUS: A decent little pre-split run, but with consecutive dojis it could be in for a drop back post-split. Dropping.
WFMI (Whole Foods--$27.10; -0.14; optionable): Grocery Stores. Split 2:1 June 5.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
STATUS: Has formed a long handle to a cup pattern, but after dropping out of a nice, flat consolidation and testing its 50 day MVA (26.41), the stock has bounced a bit. Friday volume jumped way up (1.2 million; average 480,000) as the stock showed a wild 'star' pattern, hitting 26 at its low and 28.35 at its high before closing on the 18 day MVA. A tough call on what it will do from here, but we are still looking for a breakout.
PLAY: Aggressive: Over the recent consolidation high of 28.50 on continued strong volume. Breakout: 29.55 on minimum volume of 720,000, with stock and/or August $27.50 calls to buy (FMQ HY).
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
trend trading stock
stock watch
|
