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trade stock, top stock pick
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: EAR; GMR; OHI; TRPH
Weekend play results:
CDIC: Still testing the breakout, holding at the 10 day MVA on continued below average volume.
DPAC: Looking very good in the breakout test.
HL: Big volume, but the intraday action was poor, running higher but fading to close basically flat.
OBAS: Still in a very nice breakout test, holding the 10 day MVA as volume edged higehr.
New Plays:
Play Date: 12/08/2003
TGA (Transglobe Energy--$1.94; +0.21; no options): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tga.html
STATUS: Breakout. Participating in some of the energy action, but doing it in a non-standard way (i.e., not one of the household names). TGA is making a solid volume breakout from a 5 week base that formed on the 18 day MVA (1.68), making higher and higher lows below a constant top at 1.90. This base followed an August breakout and rally into November. Accumulation in the short pattern is a solid 2 to 0 (2 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume). Surging money flow and a relative strength breakout as well. Looking for another good surge from TGA to make us a nice, quick return.
Volume: 432.9K Avg Volume: 203.636K
BUY POINT: $2.02 Volume=305K Target=$2.68 Stop=$1.73
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tga.html
Play Date: 12/08/2003
ATML (Atmel--$6.05; -0.07; optionable): Semiconductor memory chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atml.html
STATUS: Rolling. ATML is at the bottom of a 5 week range between 6 and 7. May not sound like a lot, but at this price it can make us 40% or so on the option play and 10% on the stock trade in just a roll within the range. If it breaks out as it may do on this rotation, all the better. Showing consecutive dojis over 6, we are looking for volume to continue to run up along with the price. We step in, let it run, and if it shows signs of slowing at the top of the range we take at least half of the gain.
Volume: 8.436M Avg Volume: 8.402M
BUY POINT: $6.15 Volume=9M Target=$6.88 Stop=$5.96
POSITION: AQT BA - Feb. $5c (84 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/atml.html
Look ready for Tuesday: OBAS; BCON; FDRY; INAP; NOOF
Play Date: 12/08/2003
INAP (Internap Network--$2.11; -0.06; no options): Internet service provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/inap.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. INAP has already made us some good money, and we are looking for some more. INAP surged out of a 4.5 month flat base to start November, surging on high volume. It has continued to rally and test, now making the second test of the 10 day MVA (2.10) in its breakout run. The volume has been excellent, surging on the breakouts and the runs higher, then falling off the table on the pullbacks. The past week volume has droped back well below average as INAP tests the 10 day MVA, showing two tight dojis the past two sessions. Surging money flow. Excellent point to pick it up as it moves up off of this test on some rising, close to average volume. Plenty of upside for us.
Volume: 3.092M Avg Volume: 5.2M
BUY POINT: $2.22 Volume=5.2M Target=$2.78 Stop=$2.08
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/inap.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they set up well.
Considering injecting some fresh blood into this section. Please forward any favorites that you feel would be good, solid inserts.
AVID, COH, DIS, GTRC, KKD, LPNT, OCR, TGT, UTSI, XMSR
Nothing worth it tonight.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from our subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look at them and sometimes find a few pearls. This weekend we are starting a new feature where we include some subscriber choices that could develop into plays. We are not necessarily endorsing these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to their portfolio. Typically we will put these on without commentary, but if we see something we really like or dislike we will point it out. That way we can maybe come up with some new plays, find some plays that may fit your style, and have another great educational tool to discuss problems or good aspects about stocks our subscribers are looking at.
FMDAY: Receiving quite a few requests for this stock in the multimedia/graphics software sector. Below $1, but a recent volume surge has put average volume in the 10 million range. It started the run in late May, rallied to 50 cents, formed a flat 3 month base that tested the 200 day MVA, then exploded higher in November. It is trying to test that move, coming back twice to the 10 day MVA in the past two weeks. A bit wild here, but small price and heavy volume will do that.
SGMA: Printed circuit boards, and ignoring the pullback in techs. We watched this one form a ragged 9 week cup/double bottom base and then watched it break out to start the month on strong volume. After a test of the breakout to end last week it started back up Monday on another volume surge.
End part 2 of 3
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