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us stock market, stock pick
Begin part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: GBN; ITXC; NANO; TRPH; ZILA
Best Plays:
1) AV: Volume is surging as it falls from the 50 day MVA.
2) CYPB: Making the breakout on strong trade.
3) IPXL: Nice volume move off th 18 day MVA.
4) AOT: Still a very nice test.
5) JNPR: Looks ready to make the move.
6) NPSP: Volume is edging higher in the handle.
7) OBAS: Volume is edging up as it tests the breakout at the 10 day MVA.
NEW PLAYS:
Downside:
Play Date: 12/08/2003
AV (Avaya--$12.04; -0.69; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/av.html
STATUS: Put. After a great run from april to early October, and then a final surge to 14 at the start of that month, AV is struggling. It worked laterally for 7 weeks, holding the 18 day MVA (13.12), buthe failed. It broke the 50 day MVA (12.63), testing it last Friday on low volume, then rolled back over on volume Monday. In trouble, and looks ready for a quick run back to the prior base. Initial target is 10 for a nice 605 gain on options.
Volume: 6.564M Avg Volume: 5.5M
BUY POINT: $11.92 Volume=6.8M Target=$10 Stop=$12.72
POSITION: AV OV - Mar. $12.50p (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/av.html
Upside:
Play Date: 12/08/2003
CYPB (Cypress Biosciences--$14.41; +1.11; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cypb.html
STATUS: Ascending triangel. CYPB is making a high volume breakout move from a 6 week base formed over the 18 day MVA (13.23). Monday it made the breakout move to a 3.5 year high as relative strength broke out. That breakout is a sign of the strength of the stock. This move comes after a 2 month run from a late August breakout. The stock has made three strong moves up the 18 day MVA, and after this last little base we are looking for another good, explosive move higher to bank us a nice gain and then we move on.
Volume: 411.144K Avg Volume: 307.136K
BUY POINT: $14.58 Volume=425K Target=$17.55 Stop=$13.42
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cypb.html
Play Date: 12/08/2003
IPXL (Impax Labs--$14.68; +0.78; optionable): Generic drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ipxl.html
STATUS: Cup. IPXL is starting to surge higher on strong trade, beginning to form the right side of its 12 week cup base. Volume dried up at the bottom fo the base as it should and has started to surge in late November as the stock started higher. Monday IPXL surged off the 18 day MVA (13.66), following some surging money flow. Positive 3:2 accumulation in the pattern (3 up weeks on rising volume to 2 down weeks on rising volume) is setting the foundation for a solid breakout. Accumulation is only going to get better given it is early in the pattern still.
Volume: 727.876K Avg Volume: 452.227K
BUY POINT: $15.12 Volume=650K Target=$18.15 Stop=$14.06
POSITION: UPR EC - May $15c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ipxl.html
Play Date: 12/08/2003
MHR (Magnum Hunter Res.--$9.23; +0.25; optionable): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mhr.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Taking part in some of the moves in the energy sector, but doing it with smaller issues that are not household names but in great patterns. MHR is making the breakout move from an 8 week pattern that has formed over the 50 day MVA (8.62) and is showing solid 3 to 0 accumulation (3 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume). Money flow is surging along with volume and relative strength is making a breakout as well. This little base follows a 14 week flat base; we like those base on base patterns as the second breakout is usually a good one.
Volume: 628.3K Avg Volume: 243.181K
BUY POINT: $9.35 Volume=365K Target=$11.25 Stop=$8.87
POSITION: MHR CU - Mar. $7.50c (95 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mhr.html
Play Date: 12/08/2003
MOLX (Molex--$32.16; +0.32; optionable): Electrical, electronic switches, connectors, cables, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/molx.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. MOLX is a 50 day (31.28) bouncer, jumping off the 50 day MVA at regular intervals. It has made three such bounces in the past 6 weeks and is starting the fourth bounce now. Volume was not surging, but was up close to avearge as it started this move. Money flow is moving up ahead of the stock. This follows the breakout from a 3 month base from June to August. A good point to move in to a steady move.
Volume: 617.15K Avg Volume: 669.136K
BUY POINT: $32.88 Volume=850K Target=$37.84 Stop=$31.74
POSITION: OXQ EF - May $30c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/molx.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/03/2003
ADPT (Adaptec--$9.08; +0.18; optionable): PC networking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adpt.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume moved back up to average Monday as ADPT completed a test of the 18 day MVA (8.79) in its handle to the short 8 week base. This double bottom formed on the heels of a 17 week reverse head and shoulders that broke out in early October. Very nice, and just being patient for a big surge on volume as it breaks out. Looks really ripe.
Volume: 619.749K Avg Volume: 732.272K
BUY POINT: $9.22 Volume=1.1M Target=$11.12 Stop=$8.68
POSITION: APQ DU - Apr. $7.50c (90 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/adpt.html
Play Date: 11/24/2003
AOT (Apogent Tech--$23; -0.01; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aot.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Man. Another nice, tight doji right over the 18 day MVA (22.85), again tapping that level on the low and rebounding. Volume was up Monday, indicating it may be ready to make the move that continues the breakout. AOT gave a nice surge off the 50 day MVA to end November and breakout from the 3.5 month flat base. Very nice test in progress. Excellent money flow to go along with the accumulation.
Volume: 245.9K Avg Volume: 289.818K
BUY POINT: New: $23.28 Volume=405K Target=$27.95 Stop=$22.32
POSITION: AOT DX - Apr. $22.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aot.html
Play Date: 11/25/2003
FLDR (Flanders Corp.--$6.10; +0.12; no options): Machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fldr.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. FLDR madea strong move last Wednesday on outstanding volume, breaking from its 12 week double bottom pattern. In the recent market weakness it has come back to test the 18 day MVA (5.72), tapping that level on the Monday low and then rallying on above average volume to post a gain. Ready to make the next move.
Volume: 182.645K Avg Volume: 117.318K
BUY POINT: New: $6.28 (orig. $6.19) Volume=150K Target=$7.85 Stop=$5.78
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fldr.html
Play Date: 12/06/2003
ITXC (ITXC Corp.--$4.31; +0.2; no options): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itxc.html
STATUS: Cup. Still moving more or less laterally just over the 10 day MVA (3.98), preparing for the breakout from its 5 month cup base. We thought it would form more of a handle, but started to jump up Monday. Volume was very low, however. Outstanding 7 to 2 accumulation in the pattern that formed over the 50 day MVA (3.64), a very good support level as big money tends to go to work there and pick up shares. Volume surged the past two weeks as it started up, a good sign. Need to see more volume on the breakout.
Volume: 363.561K Avg Volume: 470.545K
BUY POINT: $4.52 Volume=706K Target=$5.88 Stop=$4.21
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/itxc.html
Play Date: 11/22/2003
JNPR (Juniper Networks--$18.18; +0.28; optionable): PC networking and communication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnpr.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Up off of the 50 day MVA (17.62) on some stronger, though still below average volume as JNPR continues to work in the triangle and holding over the 50 day on the lows. It stalled at the 18 day MVA (18.16) Monday, lackign the volume to really power forward. Still a very interesting 13 week base, making higher lows below 19, building pressure for the breakout.
Volume: 5.996M Avg Volume: 9.072M
BUY POINT: New aggressive: $18.23 Breakout: $19.18 Volume=12M Target=$21.85 Stop=$17.99
POSITION: JUX DR - Apr. $17.00c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jnpr.html
Play Date: 12/03/2003
MTMD (Microteck Medical--$4.34; -0.06; no options): Medical appliances and equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtmd.html
STATUS: Cup. Surged again up to 4.63 on the high, but again could not hold the move, backing off to close fractionally lower on rising, though still below average volume. Still solid in its 13 week base, just straining at the bit to make and hold the breakout. Outstanding 6 to 0 accumulation, solid money flow, and a relative strength breakout. Just being patient and waiting for that strong volume move.
Volume: 183.155K Avg Volume: 211.272K
BUY POINT: $4.52 Volume=312K Target=$5.88 Stop=$4.15
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mtmd.html
Play Date: 12/06/2003
NPSP (NPS Pharmaceuticals--$31.15; +0.4; optionable): NPS Pharmaceuticals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/npsp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume moved up to above average Monday as NPSP moved up off the 10 day MVA (30.53) in the handle of its 12 week base. With the strong money flow, it looks as if NPSP is reayd to follow it higher and make the breakout move. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the 12 week base. Strong money flow is working higher even as the stock moves laterally and lower in the handle.
Volume: 819.879K Avg Volume: 857.909K
BUY POINT: $31.88 Volume=1.3M Target=$38.25 Stop=$30.22
POSITION: QKK BF - Feb. $30c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/npsp.html
Play Date: 12/01/2003
OBAS (Optibase--$7.96; -0.09; no options): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/obas.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still testing the breakout, holding over the 10 day MVA (7.72) on continued below average volume. OBAS broke out last Monday from its 12 week flat base and spent the rest of the week testing the move. Super money flow and a relative strength breakout. Looks very ready for the move back up.
Volume: 125.148K Avg Volume: 139.681K
BUY POINT: New: 8.28 (orig. $8.14) Volume=250K Target=$9.94 Stop=$7.49
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/obas.html
End part 2 of 3
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us stock market
stock pick
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