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stock watch, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Monday night play results:
TGA: Surging on very strong trade.
ATML: Tough day for chips, and it tanked to the 50 day MVA and out of the recent rolling range.
INAP: Gapped higher but gave back most of the gain. Still solid, just not the day for the move given the market.
New Plays for Wednesday:
Downside:
Play Date: 12/09/2003
SSTI (Silicon Storage Tech--$11.28; -1.01; optionable): Semiconductor memory chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssti.html
STATUS: Put. SSTI was leading the move up, but it thudded to the 50 day MVA (11.81) to end last week on storng volume, tried to hold on lighter trade, then knifed through that key support Tuesday on a big volume surge. This move comes after a double top in November and early December. It may test the 50 day MVA before falling further. We will look at taking a partial position on a further move down and then again on a test. If it tests first and rolls over, we will jump on with the full position on that move.
Volume: 3.364M Avg Volume: 1.946M
BUY POINT: From here: $11.06. Test of 11.80, then 11.55 on the way back down. Volume=2.4M Target=$9.05 Stop=$12.75
POSITION: SJV MV - Jan. $12.50p (-74 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ssti.html
Upside:
Play Date: 12/09/2003
IDT (IDT Corp.--$19.38; +0.26; no options): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idt.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Held up very well in the market selling on Tuesday, managing a gain on a shot of strong, above average volume. It is working on the right shoulder of an 8 week accumulation base showing solid 3 to 1 (conservatively) accumulation. That indicates that there are many more buyers than sellers of this stock over the past 2 months, always a good situation for the upside. Money flow is excellent rising ahead of the stock price. We like how it ignored the market Tuesday, and we are looking for a high volume breakout to move into positions.
Volume: 238.5K Avg Volume: 119.171K
BUY POINT: $19.74 Volume=200K Target=$23.72 Stop=$18.88
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/idt.html
Look ready for Tuesday: BCON; CDIC; IBPI; INAP; VLGC
Play Date: 12/06/2003
CDIC (Cardiodynamics--$6.01; -0.03; no options): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cdic.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CDIC looks even better after Tuesday, showing a very tight hammer doji right over the 18 day MVA (5.95) as volume remained below average on this pullback to test the breakout from its 11 week ascending triangle base. That is the action you want to see on a test, and the doji at support after the pullback is a signal that a rebound to continue the breakout move may be ready. Excellent money flow and accumulation, CDIC is set to make the move and we just have to be patient and look for that volume to jump up on the move.
Volume: 263.254K Avg Volume: 401.09K
BUY POINT: $6.24 Volume=400K Target=$7.82 Stop=$5.92
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cdic.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they set up well.
Considering injecting some fresh blood into this section. Please forward any favorites that you feel would be good, solid inserts.
AVID, COH, DIS, GTRC, KKD, LPNT, OCR, TGT, UTSI, XMSR
AVID: Breaking down from the 50 day MVA on a big volume surge, AVID cleared the recent lows. In trouble.
XMSR: Something to watch out for here as XMSR is trying to hold over support at 22. If it rolls over at 24 it is getting to be toppy. Nothing to panic about here, particularly with the 50 day MVA just below at 21.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from our subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look at them and sometimes find a few pearls. This weekend we are starting a new feature where we include some subscriber choices that could develop into plays. We are not necessarily endorsing these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to their portfolio. Typically we will put these on without commentary, but if we see something we really like or dislike we will point it out. That way we can maybe come up with some new plays, find some plays that may fit your style, and have another great educational tool to discuss problems or good aspects about stocks our subscribers are looking at.
CYPB: Breaking higher the past two sessions on volume, moving off the 18 day MVA in a short triangle. It has made 4 runs off the 18 day MVA since breaking out in September. Good move here, but getting a bit wilder in the moves as is typical in later stage bounces. Could really jump here but then be careful. We looked at this one over the weekend but held off for the reason it was well into the move.
HDTV: Really like this stock, and it is trying to extend a breakout form a short double bottom with handle formed in October and November. A good place to break higher, it is stalling on low volume as the market sells, but it is holding most of its gains. One we are still looking at.
ADPT: Reverse head and shoulders June to October, then a short double bottom with handle on the 50 day MVA following that pattern. Then Tuesday it fell from 9.25 to 8.50 on rising, above average volume. Not a total breakdown as it held the 50 day MVA, but a rather disappointing move from a good pattern. It can still salvage the move.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock watch
stock recommendation
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