stock recommendation, stock option

Begin part 3 of 3

THE PLAYS

Tuesday night play results:
SSTI: Tanked on high volume!
IDT: Still a nice handle and volume is rallying.
CDIC: Starting up off the 18 day MVA but needs more volume.

New Plays for Thursday:

Downside:

Play Date: 12/10/2003
LNCR (Lincare Holdings--$31.21; -0.56; optionable): Specialized healthcare
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lncr.html
STATUS: Put. A strong uptrend June to November, but LNCR climaxed in November and collapsed. It fell through the 200 day MVA (33.67) on massive volume, then rebounded the past three weeks toward that level on much tamer trade. It never made the 200 day again, stalling out this week at the 10 day MVA (32). Money flow is poor and the stock is under distribution still. Rolling over at this resistance is a good place to enter downside positions.
Volume: 1.565M Avg Volume: 1.927M
BUY POINT: $31.04 Volume=2.5M Target=$28.04 Stop=$32.12
POSITION: LQN NZ - Feb. $32.50p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/lncr.html

Upside:

Play Date: 12/10/2003
CTRA (Centra Software--$3.98; -0.04; no options): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctra.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Taking another look at CTRA after it fell last week but then rebounced off the 50 day MVA (3.54) Tuesday on strong trade. It is in a 14 week base showing solid 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume). The test of the 50 day MVA formed a handle, a shakeout of the last sellers. Money flow has started to race back up even as the stock made this recent 50 day MVA test. Looking for more volume on the break higher.
Volume: 418.026K Avg Volume: 150.454K
BUY POINT: $4.25 Volume=500K Target=$5.44 Stop=$3.95
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ctra.html

Look ready for Tuesday: CDIC; IBPI; VLGC

Play Date: 11/24/2003
FDRY (Foundry Networks--$25.8; +0.13; optionable): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdry.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. FDRY blasted out of an 8 week base in late November, moving on some solid volume. In the recent market selling it has held up well, coming back to test the 18 day MVA (25.38), showing a nice doji at that level Wednesday as it reached down and rebounded for a slight gain on rising, above average volume. It has really held up well, and if Nasdaq makes a run over the 50 day MVA it can move but we want to see the volume continue.
Volume: 2.811M Avg Volume: 2.88M
BUY POINT: New: $26.08 (orig. $24.72) Volume=3.5M Target=$29.72 Stop=$25.06
POSITION: OUJ CE - Mar. $25c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/fdry.html

SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they set up well.

Considering injecting some fresh blood into this section. Please forward any favorites that you feel would be good, solid inserts.

AVID, COH, DIS, GTRC, KKD, LPNT, OCR, TGT, UTSI, XMSR

XMSR: Tested the 50 day MVA and then rebounded on strong volume.

SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST

We continually receive ideas for potential plays from our subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look at them and sometimes find a few pearls. This weekend we are starting a new feature where we include some subscriber choices that could develop into plays. We are not necessarily endorsing these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to their portfolio. Typically we will put these on without commentary, but if we see something we really like or dislike we will point it out. That way we can maybe come up with some new plays, find some plays that may fit your style, and have another great educational tool to discuss problems or good aspects about stocks our subscribers are looking at.

RADN: Broke out nicely in August and is making its third bounce off the 18 day MVA.
ALOT: Was moving well, setting up the next breakout and then was torpedoed Wednesday.
SERO: Testing the breakout from a 15 week base. Good action but has never shown really big volume on the move.
ALVR: Working well up the short term MVA in a nice long 8.5 month run higher. It made a higher volume move four sessions back then reversed. It may be at the end of this run as it is getting more volatile and needs a correction.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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