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trade stock, top stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Best Plays:
1) SLVN: Struggling education stock.
2) LOW: Falling on rising volume.
3) OMCL: Volume is very strong.
4) IBIS: Volume is surging as it tests the 18 day MVA.
5) NPSP: Volume is jumping up as it starts up off the 10 December 2003.
6) ZILA: Excellent breakout test.
7) AOT: Volume is moving sharply as it moves up off the 18 day MVA.
NEW PLAYS:
Downside:
Play Date: 12/10/2003
SLVN (Sylvan Learning--$28.56; -0.44; optionable): Educatoin and training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slvn.html
STATUS: Put. A maligned sector this month, SLVN was in the process of a breakout move to end October when it reversed and solid through the 50 day MVA (29.51) on the heaviest trade in 5 months. It has rebounded this week on lower and lower volume, reaching up to tap the 50 day on the Tuesday high. Money flow is still plunging. Looking to pick up some put positions on a resumed move lower from here.
Volume: 360.811K Avg Volume: 322.727K
BUY POINT: $28.24 Volume=484K Target=$25.18 Stop=$29.62
POSITION: NQV NF - Feb. $30p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/slvn.html
Play Date: 12/10/2003
LOW (Lowes--$54.46; -1.42; optionable): Home improvement stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/low.html
STATUS: Put. LOW started toping in late October, forming a broad top that slowly rolled over. This month it broke through the 50 day MVA (56.77) on strong volume. It rallied up to test that level Monday, and then started back down, fallign on rising, above average volume Wednesday. It tapped some support on the low at 54 and bounced modestly. It may try to test toward 56 again, but we are going to be ready to take a partial position on a further fall on volume and then complete the buy on a bounce higher when that bounce fails and starts to roll over again.
Volume: 3.634M Avg Volume: 3.576M
BUY POINT: From here: $53.96 Volume=4M Target=$50.88 Stop=$54.75
POSITION: LOW MK - Jan. $35p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/low.html
Upside:
Play Date: 12/10/2003
ALTR (Altera--$22.89; +0.56; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/altr.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. ALTR broke out from a double bottom pattern in late November and rallied just over 25. In the past two weeks of market selling it has sold back tot eh 50 day MVA on mostly below average volume. It rallied higher on much stronger trade, so the pullback is pretty orderly. After a big drop Tuesday but on low volume, it started back up Wednesday on rising, almost average trade. We are looking at this as a trade if Nasdaq makes a relief bounce. We may have to cut our target short at the recent high (25.64), but it has held the breakout and if there is upside it is ready to pop up quickly.
Volume: 8.563M Avg Volume: 8.478M
BUY POINT: $23.04 Volume=10M Target=$26.55 Stop=$22.06
POSITION: LTQ CS - Mar. $22.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/altr.html
Play Date: 12/10/2003
OMCL (Omnicell--$16.15; +0.27; no options): Healthcare medication and supply dispensing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/omcl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. OMCL is currently trying to form a handle to a 10 week base showing strong 3 to 0 accumulation. Solid relative strength and money flow surging ahead of price even as it moves laterally. Volume surged Wednesday as the stock held basically steady. This surge in volume looks like a 'get ready' spike for a breakout move.
Volume: 460.906K Avg Volume: 184.909K
BUY POINT: $16.62 Volume=300K Target=$19.95 Stop=$15.46
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/omcl.html
Play Date: 12/10/2003
SKIL (Skillsoft--$8.38; -0.07; optionable): Multimedia and graphics software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/skil.html
STATUS: Cup with handle. SKIL is forming a nice weeklong handle to its 9 week base, holding over the 10 day MVA (8.19) as it works laterally. Solid 3 to 0 accumulation (3 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume) in the short base, with money flow rising ahead of price even as it moves laterally. Very nice action in a selling market, putting the finishing touches on its base when others sell is a sign of strength.
Volume: 586.767K Avg Volume: 345.409K
BUY POINT: $8.85 Volume=518K Target=$10.72 Stop=$8.18
POSITION: QAG EU - May $7.50c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/skil.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/24/2003
AOT (Apogent Tech--$22.94; +0.09; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aot.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Volume was up as AOT held the 18 day MVA again and started back up. Looks ready to continue the breakout move out of the 3.5 month flat base that it is currently testing. Looks ready.
Volume: 350.2K Avg Volume: 289.818K
BUY POINT: New: $23.28 Volume=405K Target=$27.95 Stop=$22.32
POSITION: AOT DX - Apr. $22.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aot.html
Play Date: 11/25/2003
FLDR (Flanders Corp.--$5.98; -0.01; no options): Machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fldr.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still testing the breakout after that strong move last Wednesday on mega volume. It is holding over the 18 day MVA (5.77) on the lows and rebounding. Wednesday it did it again, and this time on once again strong, above average trade. Money flow continues to move up ahead of price, and it looks as if FLDR is going to make another move from its 12 week double bottom pattern.
Volume: 160.007K Avg Volume: 117.318K
BUY POINT: New: $6.28 (orig. $6.19) Volume=150K Target=$7.85 Stop=$5.78
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fldr.html
Play Date: 12/06/2003
IBIS (Ibis Technology--$16.1; +0.6; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ibis.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Holding over the 18 day MVA (15.35) still as IBIS tests the breakout from a nice 8 week cup base. After a low volume pullback it started up Wednesday on a strong shot of above average volume. Surging money flow is leading the way and relatieve strength is ready to breakout again. Looks super.
Volume: 272.029K Avg Volume: 198.272K
BUY POINT: $16.42 Volume=297K Target=$19.75 Stop=$15.27
POSITION: UIB DC - Apr. $15c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ibis.html
Play Date: 12/08/2003
MOLX (Molex--$32.25; +0.45; optionable): Electrical, electronic switches, connectors, cables, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/molx.html
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. Started to jump up off the 50 day MVA (31.33) Monday, stalled a bit Tuesday, and then was moving back up again Wednesday on rising, above average volume. It has made three such bounces in the past 6 weeks and is starting the fourth bounce now. Money flow is moving up ahead of the stock. This follows the breakout from a 3 month base from June to August. Good point to move in if we can get some more volume.
Volume: 792.675K Avg Volume: 669.136K
BUY POINT: $32.88 Volume=850K Target=$37.84 Stop=$31.74
POSITION: OXQ EF - May $30c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/molx.html
Play Date: 12/06/2003
NPSP (NPS Pharmaceuticals--$31.5; +0.35; optionable): NPS Pharmaceuticals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/npsp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume jumped above average Wednesday as NPSP again held the 10 day MVA (30.80) and edged higher. Excellent money flow and relative strength ready to breakout. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the 12 week base. Ready for the breakout.
Volume: 1.292M Avg Volume: 857.909K
BUY POINT: $31.88 Volume=1.3M Target=$38.25 Stop=$30.22
POSITION: QKK BF - Feb. $30c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/npsp.html
Play Date: 11/22/2003
SERO (Serological--$17.83; -0.25; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sero.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. SERO surged on some solid volume to start the month, and in the recent market selling has slid back to the 18 day MVA (17.55) on very low, below average volume. Very good action, holding up well in the market selling. May test the 18 day MVA fulling, and then rally back. Want to see volume on that rebound showing a successful breakout test.
Volume: 205.261K Avg Volume: 403.681K
BUY POINT: $18.12 Volume=700K Target=$21.25 Stop=$16.85
POSITION: HUS DW - Apr. $17.50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sero.html
Play Date: 12/01/2003
TRPH (Tripath Technology--$6.12; -0.18; no options): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trph.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. There are many semiconductors that are holding up well, and after the strong breakout Friday and Monday, TRPH is testing the move on low volume as the market sells. Wednesday it tapped the 10 December 2003 on the low (5.80) and the rebounded to recoup much of the session loss. Excellent money flow and relative strength even as the stock tests the breakout from its 10 week ascending triangle. Looking for the stock to hold and continue the move on rising volume. That is a great point for new positions.
Volume: 1.159M Avg Volume: 1.308M
BUY POINT: New: $6.25 (orig. $5.58) Volume=1.7M Target=$6.94 Stop=$5.32
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/trph.html
Play Date: 11/15/2003
ZILA (Zila--$4.36; -0.16; no options): Drug products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zila.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Explosive move out of the flat base last Friday, and now testing that move on low volume. Excellent money flow and relative strength still. A very nice test and a successful breakout test is one of our favorite entry points.
Volume: 120.514K Avg Volume: 134.772K
BUY POINT: New: $4.53 (orig. $4.38) Volume=185K Target=$5.58 Stop=$4.07
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/zila.html
Downside:
Play Date: 12/09/2003
SLAB (Silicon Labs--$43.81; +0.91; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slab.html
STATUS: Put. SLAB is in a downtrend for the past 5 weeks after a strong June to October run ran out of gas and rolled over. It broke the 50 day MVA (48.16) in mid-November, tested, failed the test, and then slipped in to the downtrend. It rallied to test the 10 day MVA (45.50) on Monday and Tuesday, but then rolled over with the techs on Tuesday, continuing the now 'continuing' downtrend. When we see these we like to move in on the 10 day MVA tests. Wednesday it bounced on a shot of above average volume. We prefer to see volume lower on the rebound. Will see if it tests the 10 day again and fails there.
Volume: 1.55M Avg Volume: 1.248M
BUY POINT: Test toward 45.50, then 44.92. From here: $42.45 Volume=1.3M Target=$38.45 Stop=$43.45
POSITION: QFJ MI - Jan. $45p (-67 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/slab.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
top stock pick
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