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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 2 of 2
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS
Thursday night play results:
SATH: Great surge on very strong volume.
YHOO: Still looks good in the pattern, resting Friday on continued below average volume.
VLGC: Rallied off the 10 day MVA but gave most of the move back. Still looks ready to reload and try again for the next breakout move.
New Plays for Monday:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/13/2003
LCAV (LCA-Vision--$18.35; +0.25; no options): Value priced laser vision centers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lcav.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. LCAV continues to work on the handle to a 12 week base. It tried to make the breakout a week back but then fell back. It continued to form the lateral handle consolidation, holding over the 10 day MVA (18.03) on lower, mostly below average volume. Accumulation is an excellent 4 to 1 (4 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume), showing nice, quiet buying throughout the base. Strong money flow and relative strength ready to breakout. Showed some strength in holding up after the first failed breakout attempt, and looks as if it will try again this week.
Volume: 65.367K Avg Volume: 137.181K
BUY POINT: $18.92 Volume=206K Target=$22.75 Stop=$17.95
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/lcav.html
Play Date: 12/13/2003
TSAI (Transaction Sys Architects--$21.19; +1; no options): Technical and system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsai.html
STATUS: Flat base. Friday TSAI started the breakout move from its 9 week flat base showing excellent 5 to 1 accumulation. It held over the 50 day MVA (18.86) as it formed; bases that hold this key support level show us that the institutions are accumulating positions at that point. Relative strength broke out on the move as well, an indication of the support for the stock.
Volume: 774.259K Avg Volume: 419.181K
BUY POINT: $21.32 Volume=629K Target=$25.35 Stop=$19.88
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tsai.html
Downside:
Play Date: 12/13/2003
SMH (Semiconductor Holders Trust--$40.91; -0.04; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smh.html
STATUS: Double top. This measure of the semiconductors similar to the QQQ peakded at 44.70 in November and then made a lower high in early December (44.39) on much lower volume. It then sold lower the past two weeks on rising volume, a classic symptom of a double top: the failure of buyside volume on the second peak indicates fewer buyers and the move cannot sustain. The higher volume on the selling tells you the holders are bailing out. Last Tuesday SMH crashed through the 50 day MVA (40.74) on heavy volume in that distribution day on NASDAQ. It rallied back up to the 10 day MVA (41.32) on the Friday high, but backed off and showed a tight doji. Dojis at resistance levels (old support can become resistance if it holds) after a bounce back often portend further selling. We are looking for SMH to roll over here on higher volume this week.
Volume: 11.418M Avg Volume: 10.96M
BUY POINT: $40.62 Volume=16M Target=$38.12 Stop=$41.38
POSITION: SMH NV - Feb. $42.50p (-64 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/smh.html
Look ready for Monday: CTRA; FDRY; INAP; RWY; VLGC; LNCR
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they set up well.
Still looking for some fresh blood. Please forward any favorites that you feel would be good, solid inserts.
AVID, COH, DIS, GTRC, KKD, LPNT, OCR, TGT, UTSI, XMSR
UTSI: After breaking back over the 50 day MVA in November and moving laterally this month, it started higher Friday on an above average shot of volume. Looks ready to rally and build the right side of its 4 month base.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from our subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look at them and sometimes find a few pearls. This weekend we are starting a new feature where we include some subscriber choices that could develop into plays. We are not necessarily endorsing these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to their portfolio. Typically we will put these on without commentary, but if we see something we really like or dislike we will point it out. That way we can maybe come up with some new plays, find some plays that may fit your style, and have another great educational tool to discuss problems or good aspects about stocks our subscribers are looking at.
AMTD: Working on a new 9 week base after a strong May to October run up the 50 day MVA. After such a run stocks often need to take a pause, get rid of the fluff and the profit takers, then set the stage for the next breakout. AMTD double bottomed over the past three weeks and gapped over the 50 day MVA Friday on the best volume of the month. Forming up the base well.
RDWR: Getting a bit more volatile on the runs up and down after a 8.5 month run up the 50 day MVA. Stocks tend to get wilder in the later stages of a run; volatility is the calling card of change. Still very much in the uptrend, showing a tombstone doji, however, on Friday as it made another run off the 50 day MVA. It showed this pattern right at the top of the uptrend channel, and it looks as if that is going to send it back down for another test of the uptrend. The volatility indicates it is getting a bit long in the tooth on this run and will need another basing period. It may have another 50 day MVA bounce in it on this move.
CONTINUING:
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
Tonight we add a new feature, a spreadsheet download of the continuing play table. It will allow you to sort and otherwise the data for your own investment use. This is a service to our subscribers only, and no other use of the information is authorized. Simply click on the link, enter your username and password, and download the spreadsheet!
http://investmenthouse.com/daily/table.php
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
^OEX 12/01 A Wedge 531.78 +1.62 526.85 545 0 650K 519.98
Buy Not Issued.
^OEX 11/06 A Wedge 531.78 +1.62 523.15 545 0 650K 526.21
Current. New high, coasting on the Thursday stronger volume.
AIRN 12/04 Test BO 3.02 +0.02 3.22 4.18 390K 537K 2.99
Current. Struggling to hold the breakout, but a good volume
rebound off the 18 day Thursday makes it looks as if
it will be a success.
ALTI 12/01 Dbl btm 2.1 +0.13 2.05 2.74 1.5M 1.2M 1.94
Current. Hanging onto the breakout, bouncing Thursday and adding
a bit Friday. Good test & now we see if it can continue
the rebound.
AVID 08/09 Test 18 47.09 -0.45 0 0 424K 0 0
BCON 11/15 A Wedge 1.15 -0.03 1.29 1.75 1.1M 7.7M 1.12
Current. Still fighting to hold the 18 day MVA. We will give
it the next upside market dday to see if it can start
the rebound.
CDIC 12/06 Test BO 6.47 +0.12 6.28 7.88 269K 400K 6.02
Current. Up off the 10 day MVA further Friday. Volume kicked
up Thursday as it started teh rebound so we are just
letting it move in the continued breakout.
CTRA 12/10 Cup hdl 4.01 -0.05 4.25 5.44 234K 500K 3.95
Buy Not Hit.
DIS 08/09 Test 50 22.82 +0.17 22.06 26.48 6.2M 9M 22.05
DPAC 12/06 Test BO 2.49 +0.24 2.37 3.02 519K 215K 2.12
Current. Excellent volume pouring in Friday as DPAC extended
its move, really making a definitive break higher.
EAR 12/02 Cup hdl 2.41 +0.04 1.95 2.54 974K 254K 1.98
Current. Super move to the end of the week, stalling some Friday.
Nice break higher.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 57.68 +0.29 34.72 46 7.2M 12M 53.94
Current.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 57.68 +0.29 31.22 46 7.2M 12M 54.88
Current. Excellent recovery Thursday put it in much better position, but has immediate resistance at 58.
FDRY 11/24 Flat 25.86 -0.03 24.72 29.72 1.7M 3.5M 25.38
Current. Eased back to the 18 day MVA. showing good volume Thursday as it bounced. Stalled some Friday but looks ready to bounce after this test.
FL 10/11 A Wedge 21.78 -0.36 17.38 20.88 907K 1.4M 21.05
Current. Still in the uptrend over the 18 day MVA, testing that
level after a strong move to end November. Continues
to trend higher.
FSII 11/25 Flat 7.11 +0.12 6.54 7.98 158K 400K 6.56
Current. Good volume move off the 18 day Thursday and the momentum
continued Friday though not the volume.
GMR 12/04 Test 18 16 +0.05 14.77 17.78 220K 207K 15.38
Current. Tested back toward the 10 day MVA after the strong
surge, held well over it and started back up. Nice.
GOLD 11/22 Cup hdl 27.11 +0.36 28.18 33.95 401K 680K 25.82
Buy Not Issued.
IBPI 11/09 A Wedge 16.95 +0.74 16.12 19.38 43K 358K 14.82
Buy Not Issued. Moved well but just too thinly traded for our taste. Dropping though we will definitely keep an eye on it.
IDT 12/09 Rv H&S 20 -0.18 19.79 23.82 264K 200K 19.12
Current. Edged back Friday after the stellar Thursday breakout.
INAP 12/08 Test BO 2.09 -0.01 2.22 2.78 5.2M 5.2M 2
Buy Not Issued.
INAP 11/25 Test BO 2.09 -0.01 1.95 2.58 5.2M 5.7M 2
Current. Tested the breakout, holding the 18 day MVA. Now is
the time to make the rebound to continue the breakout run.
LCAV 12/13 DB hdl 18.35 +0.25 18.92 22.75 65K 206K 17.95
Buy Not Hit.
LPNT 08/09 Rv H&S 28.7 -0.31 0 0 655K 1.3M 27.88
Buy Not Issued.
NOOF 11/01 Cup hdl 9.03 -0.2 5.27 6.32 193K 319K 8.42
Current. Continues the move up the 10 day MVA, topping a bit
here as it flattens out. Still letting it work for
us if it will.
NOOF 10/25 Cup hdl 9.03 -0.2 4.78 6.21 193K 280K 8.42
Current.
OBAS 12/01 A Wedge 7 -0.24 8.14 9.94 82K 250K 7.49
Current. Thudded to the 50 day MVA fast, so letting it make
a relief bounce when we will move otu if it does not
soar back up.
OHI 12/08 Flat 8.74 -0.08 8.71 10.48 104K 200K 8.35
Current. Moving laterally, holding the gains after the big breakout.
Good action and we just need to be patient and let
it complete the lateral move and start up again.
RWY 11/04 Cup hdl 7.85 +0.16 6.24 7.85 42K 146K 7.44
Current. Still working laterally over the 10 day MVA but below
8. AFter the big move it is in a consolidating mode.
A break over 8 on volume is a new buy.
SATH 12/11 Test BO 3.58 +0.21 3.6 4.69 868K 152K 3.35
Current. Nice volume breakout after the test. Patience looks
to have paid off.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 31.73 -0.46 30.35 36.75 2M 6M 31.32
Current.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 31.73 -0.46 26.3 30.94 2M 6M 31.32
Current. Working laterally right on top of the 18 day MVA and
below 34. It has been sluggish but not selling off
so letting continue to consolidate.
SCON 11/24 Test BO 6.19 -0.13 6.38 7.78 1.2M 3M 6.42
Current.
SCON 11/18 Test BO 6.19 -0.13 6.22 7.78 1.2M 3M 6.42
Current. Was getting ugly with a big test below the 50 day MVA
but then rallied back furiously so we let it ride as
this might be the shakeout and reversal needed to start
the next leg.
SWC 12/08 Test BO 8.87 +0.27 8.89 10.45 482K 600K 8.46
Current. Sharp drop to the 18 day MVA Wednesday but volume did
not jump. Managed to hold and rebound to close the week.
SWC 11/20 Cup 8.87 +0.27 8.19 9.85 482K 600K 8.46
Current.
TGA 12/08 A Wedge 2.08 +0.14 2.12 2.78 242K 305K 1.84
Current. Survived the Wednesday and Thursday fall and rebounded
Friday to continue the breakout move.
TGT 08/09 Flat 38.77 -0.24 41.45 50 2.5M 5.7M 38.74
TRPH 12/11 Test BO 6.38 -0.06 6.49 7.68 718K 1.7M 5.93
Current. HOlding over the 10 day MVA after falling back mid
week. Recovered off the to day to close the action.
Good point to continue the breakout.
TRPH 12/01 Test 50 6.38 -0.06 5.58 6.94 718K 1.7M 5.93
Current.
TSAI 12/13 Flat 21.19 +1 21.32 25.35 774K 629K 19.88
Buy Not Hit.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 39.83 +1.37 28.06 31.44 562K 494K 39.78
Current.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 39.83 +1.37 23.42 27.62 562K 603K 39.78
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 39.83 +1.37 21.88 26 562K 603K 39.78
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 39.83 +1.37 19.3 22.19 562K 577K 39.78
Current.
VLGC 12/12 Test BO 2.8 +0.05 2.94 3.54 949K 1.3M 2.68
Buy Not Issued.
VLGC 11/10 Cup 2.8 +0.05 2.14 2.82 949K 1.3M 2.56
Current. Started up off teh 18 day MVA test Thursday and Friday.
Gave much of the Friday move back but money flow is
still shooting higher.
VOD 10/28 Cup hdl 23.88 -0.08 21.45 25.75 3.3M 2.8M 23.44
Current. Still working over the 10 day MVA but needs to clear
24 to start the next leg.
WMS 11/21 Dbl btm 25.3 -0.09 25.83 31.22 135K 650K 25.68
Current. Holding the 50 day MVA after the test, trying to rebound
Thursday but stalling Friday. Needs to make the move.
YHOO 12/11 Rv H&S 42.98 +0.2 44.35 53.25 7.8M 17M 42.22
Buy Not Hit.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
LNCR 12/10 Put 31.91 -0.39 31.04 28.04 971K 2.5M 32.12
Buy Not Hit.
SMH 12/13 Put 40.91 -0.04 40.62 38.12 11M 16M 41.38
Buy Not Hit.
SSTI 12/09 Put 11.84 +0.26 10.56 8.55 2.8M 2.4M 11.55
Current. Doji at the simple 50 day MVA on lower volume so we
left it alone as that typically indicates the bounce
to resistance is over.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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