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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 2 of 3
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: AVX; EMBT; FLDR; GBN; HOMS
Best Plays:
1) SMTC: Low volume test of the 50 day MVA breakdown.
2) MICU: Racing toward the breakout on volume.
3) TEK: Took a breather Friday, but surged off the 50 day MVA Thursday.
4) ALTI: Nice breakout test.
5) OMCL: Voume up as OMCL puts the finishing touches on its handle.
6) SKIL: Still looks super.
7) AV: Has made the rebound and is now ready to fail.
8) SLAB: Ready to make the breakdown again in its downtrend.
NEW PLAYS:
Downside:
Play Date: 12/13/2003
SMTC (Semtech--$21.85; +0.35; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smtc.html
STATUS: Put. One of the semiconductors under some pressure, SMTC peaked in late November at 25 and then sold through the 50 day MVA (22.20) Tuesday. It checked pu and reversed Wednesday and rallied up to the 50 day MVA Friday, but on lower volume. It may not tank to all time lows, but it does not have to do that to make us some money. On a failure here we are looking for SMTC to test near the September low and start its next base there. That will give us a nice return. Entering on a test of the breakdown is our favorite entry point.
Volume: 1.328M Avg Volume: 1.127M
BUY POINT: $21.68 Volume=1.2M Target=$19 Stop=$22.32
POSITION: QTU OR - Mar. $22.50p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/smtc.html
Play Date: 12/13/2003
TTMI (TTM Technologies--$15.05; +0.35; optionable): Printed circuit boards
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttmi.html
STATUS: Put. Another stock that broke the 50 day MVA (15.02) a week back on some tremendous volume. TTMI has formed a short, 8 week head and shoulds pattern, then broke down this month. It spent the end of last week rallying back to test the break of the 50 day MVA as well as the pattern. This is where it should fail and fall on rising volume. Under heavy distribution and diving money flow. Looking for it to roll over here on rising volume.
Volume: 657.601K Avg Volume: 668.909K
BUY POINT: $14.68 Volume=700K Target=$12.12 Stop=$15.32
POSITION: UKD OC - Mar. $15p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ttmi.html
Upside:
Play Date: 12/13/2003
MICU (Vicuron Pharma--$18.73; +0.78; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/micu.html
STATUS: Flat base. MICU is working in a 10 week base that has held over the 50 day MVA (17.68) on its lows. That is a very good sign as it shows the big money is moving in here to accumulate the stock. That is evident in the accumulation, a strong 4 to 0 (4 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume. Strong money flow is helping lead the way higher as volume surged the last two sessions of the week and MICU ran toward a breakout from the top of the range (ranges runs from 17 to 19). Want to see that volume contnue as MICU makes the breakout move.
Volume: 675.5K Avg Volume: 325K
BUY POINT: $19.12 Volume=488K Target=$22.95 Stop=$17.98
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/micu.html
Play Date: 12/13/2003
MND (Mindspeed Technologies--$7.01; +0.2; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mnd.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. A new issue in late June, MND has steadily worked its way up the 50 day MVA (5.92). The past 6 weeks it has turned into something of an ascending triangle sporting strong money flow and relative strength ready for the breakout. Accumulation in the pattern is a solid 2 to 0. MND was rallying up off the 50 day MVA (5.92) to end the week. If it gets some volume it can make the breakout. Love these new issues tha tgo through their first base.
Volume: 450K Avg Volume: 758.454K
BUY POINT: $7.15 Volume=1.1M Target=$8.65 Stop=$6.65
POSITION: MND GU - Apr. 7.50c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mnd.html
Play Date: 12/13/2003
TEK (Tektronix--$27.43; +0.2; optionable): Scientific and technical instrumentation
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tek.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working through an 8 week base, TEK bounced off the 50 day MVA (26.11) Thursday on a very storng volume surge. That move comes after the formation of a two week handle to its base. Accumulation in the short pattern is a solid 2 to 0. Money flow is moving up ahead of the price even as it turned lower to test the earlier move. Relative strength is also solid, ready for the breakout as well. The base formed over the 50 day MVA, an indication of the support for the stock as big money uses this level to accumulate additional positions. Just waiting for the strong volume breakout move.
Volume: 246.4K Avg Volume: 381.272K
BUY POINT: $27.84 Volume=450K Target=$33.42 Stop=$26.78
POSITION: TEK DE - Apr. $25c (85 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tek.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/01/2003
ALTI (Altair Nanotechnologies--$2.1; +0.13; no options): Industrial metals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alti.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Huge blast from a 10 week base to start December. ALTI has come back to test the move, holding the 18 day MVA (1.89) on the lows on very low volume compared to the move higher. After testing and bouncing off the 18 day MVA Thursday, ALTI gapped higher Friday but could not hold all of the move. Super money flow and accumulation. Ready for the next move up in the breakout.
Volume: 1.523M Avg Volume: 1.241M
BUY POINT: New: $2.22 (orig. $2.05) Volume=1.2M Target=New positions: 2.95 (orig. $2.74) Stop=$1.94
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/alti.html
Play Date: 12/06/2003
IBIS (Ibis Technology--$15.4; -0.35; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ibis.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still holding the 18 day MVA (15.39) AS IBIS tests the breakout from a nice 8 week cup base. Volume was up Friday as the stock fell back. Not the best price/volume action, but still a great pattern. Money flow is huge to boot, rallying ahead of the stock price. Just waiting for the breakout.
Volume: 231.742K Avg Volume: 198.272K
BUY POINT: $16.42 Volume=297K Target=$19.75 Stop=$15.27
POSITION: UIB DC - Apr. $15c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ibis.html
Play Date: 12/06/2003
NPSP (NPS Pharmaceuticals--$32.64; +0.14; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/npsp.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was up Wednesday, but it dropped off the table Thursday and Friday as NPSP continued the move up with modest gains. No breakaway breakout on volume that we want to see in these patterns. Excellent money flow and relative strength ready to breakout. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the 12 week base. Again, need to see a breakawy move to get in.
Volume: 513.565K Avg Volume: 857.909K
BUY POINT: New: $32.88 (orig. $31.88) Volume=1.3M Target=$38.25 Stop=$30.22
POSITION: QKK BF - Feb. $30c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/npsp.html
Play Date: 12/10/2003
OMCL (Omnicell--$16.05; +0.27; no options): Healthcare medication and supply dispensing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/omcl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice, nice action in the handle, tapping the 10 day MVA on the Friday low (15.25) and then rebounding for a gain on some rising, above average volume. Money flow is really out in front, leading the way higher. Accumulation in the 10 week base is a solid 3 to 0. Excellent price/volume action showing some 'get ready' volume spikes the past two weeks. A good looking pattern.
Volume: 215.723K Avg Volume: 184.909K
BUY POINT: $16.62 Volume=300K Target=$19.95 Stop=$15.46
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/omcl.html
Play Date: 12/10/2003
SKIL (Skillsoft--$8.4; -0.04; optionable): Multimedia and graphics software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/skil.html
STATUS: Cup with handle. Another nice pattern, an 8 week base with strong 3 to 0 accumulation. It continues to form the handle over the 10 day MVA (8.26) on lower, below average volume. The handle is tightening up, and with money flow leading the way higher it looks as if SKIL is ready to follow it. Nice hold over the 50 day MVA as the base formed, a good sign of accumulation in the stock as the big money steps in to buy at that level.
Volume: 256.011K Avg Volume: 345.409K
BUY POINT: $8.85 Volume=518K Target=$10.72 Stop=$8.18
POSITION: QAG EU - May $7.50c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/skil.html
Play Date: 11/22/2003
SERO (Serological--$17.73; -0.26; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sero.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Gapped up sharply Friday as SERO jumped off the 18 day MVA (17.61). It could not hold any of the gain, however, as volume was anemic. The test was a nice, low volume, orderly move, and even though SERO gave the rebound back on Friday, it looks in very good shape to reload and try again. SERO surged on some solid volume to start the month, and in the recent market selling has slid back to the 18 day MVA (17.55) on very low, below average volume. Very good action, holding up well in the market selling. May test the 18 day MVA fulling, and then rally back. Want to see volume on that rebound showing a successful breakout test.
Volume: 258.975K Avg Volume: 403.681K
BUY POINT: $18.12 Volume=700K Target=$21.25 Stop=$16.85
POSITION: HUS DW - Apr. $17.50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sero.html
Downside:
Play Date: 12/08/2003
AV (Avaya--$11.91; +0.17; optionable): Telecom systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/av.html
STATUS: Put. AV dove lower early last week in its continued breakdown below the 50 day MVA (12.45). It ended the week with a low volume relief bounce to test that breakdown. Friday the stock made very little progress as it bunched up below the 10 day MVA (12.15) and volume dropped well below average. Looks as if the relief move is over and when AV rolls over on a bit better volume it is in good position to start a new trade or add to exisitn positions.
Volume: 3.713M Avg Volume: 5.5M
BUY POINT: $11.75 Volume=6.8M Target=$10 Stop=$12.01
POSITION: AV OV - Mar. $12.50p (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/av.html
Play Date: 12/10/2003
LOW (Lowes--$55.05; -0.58; optionable): Home improvement
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/low.html
STATUS: Put. LOW is failing below its 50 day MVA (56.12). It broke that level 7 sessions back, tested the move and has failed. It made a weak tap at the 10 day MVA (56.12) on the Thursday high and then rolled down again Friday. Ready to give way to the downside.
Volume: 2.736M Avg Volume: 3.576M
BUY POINT: New: $54.65 (orig. $53.96) Volume=4M Target=$50.88 Stop=$54.75
POSITION: LOW MK - Jan. $35p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/low.html
Play Date: 12/09/2003
SLAB (Silicon Labs--$44.31; -1.38; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slab.html
STATUS: Put. Made the test up to 45.50 and is starting to roll over on rising volume. This is a picture perfect failure at resistance in the downtrend and rolling over on stronger, above average volume. SLAB is in a downtrend for the past 5 weeks after a strong June to October run ran out of gas and rolled over. It broke the 50 day MVA in mid-November, tested, failed the test, and then slipped in to the downtrend. Looks ready to make a quick trip toward the 200 day MVA down at 37.50. Our target is not that far, but if it is tanking when it hits the target, we won't stop it.
Volume: 1.647M Avg Volume: 1.248M
BUY POINT: Test toward 45.50, then 44.92. From here: $42.45 Volume=1.3M Target=$38.45 Stop=$43.45
POSITION: QFJ MI - Jan. $45p (-67 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/slab.html
Play Date: 12/10/2003
SLVN (Sylvan Learning--$28.43; -0.59; optionable): Educatoin and training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slvn.html
STATUS: Put. Ready to fail at the 50 day MVA (29.45). SLVN continues to struggle just below the 50 day, maligned by the news regarding CECO and COCO early in the month. It is set up for the fall, and now it just needs to make the drop.
Volume: 312.765K Avg Volume: 322.727K
BUY POINT: $28.24 Volume=484K Target=$25.18 Stop=$29.62
POSITION: NQV NF - Feb. $30p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/slvn.html
End part 2 of 3
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