|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 2 of 2
SEMINARS ON CD
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com
This is Jon Johnson's own site devoted exclusively to seminars designed to teach you what you need to know about the stock market and stock movement and how to take advantage of those moves without incurring the usual high costs of travel and related expenses usually associated with seminars.
PLAYS:
New plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/13/2003
CKSW (Clicksoftware Technologies--$4.25; +0.33; no options): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cksw.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. CKSW is showing some good life again. It broke out of a 3 month base in mid October and rallied up the 18 day MVA (4.11). It peaked and then faded back to test the 50 day on Wednesday. It held and then bounced. Friday volume was up again but below average as it jumped back over the 18 day. Surging money flow and relative strength moving toward a breakout. A winner that looks to be back on track.
Volume: 367.485K Avg Volume: 376.454K
BUY POINT: $4.52 Volume=450K Target=$5.44 Stop=$4.09
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cksw.html
Play Date: 12/13/2003
MND (Mindspeed Technologies--$7.01; +0.2; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mnd.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. A new issue in late June, MND has steadily worked its way up the 50 day MVA (5.92). The past 6 weeks it has turned into something of an ascending triangle sporting strong money flow and relative strength ready for the breakout. Accumulation in the pattern is a solid 2 to 0. MND was rallying up off the 50 day MVA (5.92) to end the week. If it gets some volume it can make the breakout. Love these new issues tha tgo through their first base.
Volume: 450K Avg Volume: 758.454K
BUY POINT: $7.15 Volume=1.1M Target=$8.65 Stop=$6.65
POSITION: MND GU - Apr. 7.50c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mnd.html
Play Date: 12/13/2003
TTI (Tetra Technologies--$23.4; +0.4; no options): Technical services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tti.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. TTI making a series of higher lows in its 4.5 month pattern. Accumulation in the base is a strong 4 to 1 (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume); that shows money moving into the stock as it has worked through the pattern. After holding at the 50 day MVA (22.46) in late November, TTI has held the 18 day MVA (22.82) on this last test back in the pattern. As it made the move off the 18 day Friday, volume surged as it made the higher low. When a stock that has used the 50 day MVA as support in a pattern then turns up with a higher low at the 18 day, that often means a breakout is coming. Showing excellent action and great accumulation.
Volume: 235.9K Avg Volume: 110K
BUY POINT: $24.35 Volume=165K Target=$29.25 Stop=$22.81
POSITION: - Stock (Dec. options only)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tti.html
Downside:
Play Date: 12/13/2003
TTMI (TTM Technologies--$15.05; +0.35; optionable): Printed circuit boards
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttmi.html
STATUS: Put. Another stock that broke the 50 day MVA (15.02) a week back on some tremendous volume. TTMI has formed a short, 8 week head and shoulds pattern, then broke down this month. It spent the end of last week rallying back to test the break of the 50 day MVA as well as the pattern. This is where it should fail and fall on rising volume. Under heavy distribution and diving money flow. Looking for it to roll over here on rising volume.
Volume: 657.601K Avg Volume: 668.909K
BUY POINT: $14.68 Volume=700K Target=$12.12 Stop=$15.32
POSITION: UKD OC - Mar. $15p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ttmi.html
Play Date: 12/13/2003
SMH (Semiconductor Holders Trust--$40.91; -0.04; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smh.html
STATUS: Double top. This measure of the semiconductors similar to the QQQ peakded at 44.70 in November and then made a lower high in early December (44.39) on much lower volume. It then sold lower the past two weeks on rising volume, a classic symptom of a double top: the failure of buyside volume on the second peak indicates fewer buyers and the move cannot sustain. The higher volume on the selling tells you the holders are bailing out. Last Tuesday SMH crashed through the 50 day MVA (40.74) on heavy volume in that distribution day on NASDAQ. It rallied back up to the 10 day MVA (41.32) on the Friday high, but backed off and showed a tight doji. Dojis at resistance levels (old support can become resistance if it holds) after a bounce back often portend further selling. We are looking for SMH to roll over here on higher volume this week.
Volume: 11.418M Avg Volume: 10.96M
BUY POINT: $40.62 Volume=16M Target=$38.12 Stop=$41.38
POSITION: SMH NV - Feb. $42.50p (-64 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/smh.html
Continuing plays ready to move: ALTI; CTRA; INAP; OMCL; TELK; VLGC; LNCR; SLVN
CONTINUING PLAY LIST:
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
Tonight we add a new feature, a spreadsheet download of the continuing play table. It will allow you to sort and otherwise the data for your own investment use. This is a service to our subscribers only, and no other use of the information is authorized. Simply click on the link, enter your username and password, and download the spreadsheet! You may have to hold down the control key as you click on the link.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihalerts/table.php
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
^OEX 12/01 A Wedge 531.78 +1.62 526.85 545 0 650K 519.98
Buy Not Issued.
^OEX 11/06 A Wedge 531.78 +1.62 523.15 545 0 650K 526.21
Current. New high, coasting on the Thursday stronger volume.
ADTN 12/04 Test 18 64.08 -0.12 68.26 75 468K 1.2M 66.12
Buy Not Hit.
AIRN 12/04 Test BO 3.02 +0.02 3.22 4.18 390K 537K 2.99
Current. Struggling to hold the breakout, but a good volume
rebound off the 18 day Thursday makes it looks as if
it will be a success.
ALTI 12/01 Dbl btm 2.1 +0.13 2.05 2.74 1.5M 1.2M 1.94
Current. Hanging onto the breakout, bouncing Thursday and adding
a bit Friday. Good test & now we see if it can continue
the rebound.
AOT 11/24 Flat 22.65 -0.65 23.37 27.95 2.8M 405K 22.88
Current. Sucker punched as AOT announced a convertible debt
offering Friday. Broke the 18 day MVA but we are seeing
if it provides a releif bounce as is often the case
after such news.
AVX 12/11 Flat 16.31 +0.4 16.25 19.55 300K 450K 15.25
Current. Volume continued to move higher as AVX broke from its
flat base.
CDIC 12/06 Test BO 6.47 +0.12 6.28 7.88 269K 400K 6.02
Current. Up off the 10 day MVA further Friday. Volume kicked
up Thursday as it started teh rebound so we are just
letting it move in the continued breakout.
CKSW 12/13 Test 50 4.25 +0.33 4.52 5.44 367K 450K 4.09
Buy Not Hit.
CTRA 12/10 Cup hdl 4.01 -0.05 4.25 5.44 234K 500K 3.95
Buy Not Hit.
CYPB 12/08 A Wedge 14.6 +0.13 14.58 17.55 316K 425K 13.42
Buy Not Issued. Volume was up Friday but not much of a breakaway move
by CYPB so we left it alone again.
DJO 09/11 Cup 26.74 +0.74 14 16.45 119K 100K 24.78
Current. Trying to clear the highs after testing and holding
the 18 day MVA as it continues its breakout run.
DTAS 12/09 Flat 9.28 -0.21 9.49 11.88 408K 517K 8.83
Current. Stalled out a bit Friday after the solid late Thursday
momve. Still in good shape.
ECSI 11/20 Test 18 7 -0.38 7.48 8.88 427K 221K 7.07
Current. Broke the 18 day on volume but was rebounding at the
close so we will see if it makes it back over the 10
day toward 7.50 early this week.
EMBT 10/06 Flat 15.98 +0.66 11.24 13.38 711K 350K 14.42
Current.
EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 15.98 +0.66 9.33 11.12 711K 400K 14.42
Current. Excellent rebound off the 50 day MVA last week, surging
on stronger and stronger volume all week. Ready for
a new high. Nice.
FLDR 12/12 Cup hdl 6.83 +0.78 6.64 8 653K 150K 6.02
Current. Great surge on great volume as it borke out of the
new handle. We jumped on board with more positions
on this move.
FLDR 11/25 DB hdl 6.83 +0.78 6.19 7.85 653K 150K 6.02
Current.
FSII 11/25 Flat 7.11 +0.12 6.54 7.98 158K 400K 6.56
Current. Good volume move off the 18 day Thursday and the momentum
continued Friday though not the volume.
GBN 10/22 Cup 2.75 +0.2 1.86 2.42 948K 300K 2.45
Current. Deep test below the 18 day last week but we gave it
some room and it rebounded nicely to finish the session.
HOTT 11/19 Test 50 28.11 -0.26 28.55 34 568K 1M 27.74
Current. Testing back to the 50 day MVA, holding that level
again on Friday. Still in good shape to make the bounce.
IBIS 12/06 Test BO 15.4 -0.35 16.42 19.75 232K 297K 15.27
Buy Not Issued.
IDT 12/09 Rv H&S 20 -0.18 19.79 23.82 264K 200K 19.12
Current. Edged back Friday after the stellar Thursday breakout.
INAP 12/08 Test BO 2.09 -0.01 2.22 2.78 5.2M 5.2M 2
Buy Not Issued.
MAXM 12/01 Rv H&S 8.33 +0.09 8.09 9.88 80K 227K 7.88
Current. Still working up the 10 day MVA after makint the early
December breakout from the pattern.
MND 12/13 A Wedge 7.01 +0.2 7.15 8.65 450K 1.1M 6.65
Buy Not Hit.
MTMD 12/03 Cup 4.83 +0.1 4.64 6 483K 312K 4.41
Current. Excellent surge late in teh week as MTMD continued
the solid breakout move.
MVSN 11/24 Cup hdl 21.8 -0.69 23.33 27.69 850K 891K 22.32
Current. Testing lower intraday and rebounding sharply to hold
the 50 day MVA, doing so on strong volume Friday.
That indicates it may be ready to make the rebound.
It needs to or we are going to close it.
NOOF 11/01 Cup hdl 9.03 -0.2 5.27 6.32 193K 319K 8.42
Current. Continues the move up the 10 day MVA, topping a bit
here as it flattens out. Still letting it work for
us if it will.
NOOF 10/25 Cup hdl 9.03 -0.2 4.78 6.21 193K 280K 8.42
Current.
NOVL 11/22 Test BO 9.42 +0.51 8.88 10.68 5.9M 10M 8.88
Current. Nice recovery off the test below the 18 day MVA, rallying
back over the 18 day on some decent volume.
NSIT 11/15 A Wedge 17.75 -0.12 19.06 22.88 327K 819K 17.94
Buy Not Issued.
NTST 12/06 Test BO 17.64 +2.39 14.42 17.28 1M 215K 17.22
Current. Continued the Thursday breakout, rallying through the
target on huge trade. Decided to let it run but ready
to take half of the gain if it starts to faltire.
NUVO 11/28 Test 18 3.61 -0.09 3.9 4.88 203K 1M 3.63
Current. Moving laterally over the 50 day and below the 10 day,
trying to regroup after the big surge to end November.
Letting ti work.
OBAS 12/01 A Wedge 7 -0.24 8.14 9.94 82K 250K 7.49
Current. Thudded to the 50 day MVA fast, so letting it make
a relief bounce when we will move otu if it does not
soar back up.
OHI 12/08 Flat 8.74 -0.08 8.71 10.48 104K 200K 8.35
Current. Moving laterally, holding the gains after the big breakout.
Good action and we just need to be patient and let
it complete the lateral move and start up again.
OMCL 12/10 Cup hdl 16.05 +0.27 16.62 19.95 216K 300K 15.46
Buy Not Hit.
OSTK 12/11 Test BO 19.46 +0.07 20.12 24.25 679K 658K 18.71
Buy Not Hit.
PSSI 11/19 Cup hdl 11.5 +0.1 10.26 12.95 231K 779K 11.12
Current. Still working laterally over the 10 day MVA as it holds
onto the breakout, a sign of its strength.
QCOM 12/11 Cup hdl 51 +0.86 50.61 58.25 11M 12M 48.24
Current. Nice move to continue the breakout.
RWY 11/04 Cup hdl 7.85 +0.16 6.24 7.85 42K 146K 7.44
Current. Still working laterally over the 10 day MVA but below
8. AFter the big move it is in a consolidationg mode.
A break over 8 on volume is a new buy.
SATH 12/11 Test BO 3.58 +0.21 3.6 4.69 868K 152K 3.35
Current. Nice volume breakout after the test. Patience looks
to have paid off.
SCON 11/24 Test BO 6.19 -0.13 6.38 7.78 1.2M 3M 6.42
Current.
SCON 11/18 Test BO 6.19 -0.13 6.22 7.78 1.2M 3M 6.42
Current. Was getting ugly with a big test below the 50 day MVA
but then rallied back furiously so we let it ride as
this might be the shakeout and reversal needed to start
the next leg.
SFY 12/08 Cup 16.25 +0.55 15.38 18.55 222K 200K 15.21
Surging on solid volume.
SLXP 12/02 Flat 21.5 +1.06 20.29 24.55 572K 316K 20.03
Current. Surged Friday on excellent volume, making th enext
breakout. Nice.
SONC 11/22 Test BO 30.94 +0.08 31.22 37.62 361K 500K 30.27
Current. Tested support at 30 adn rebounded on solid trade Thursday.
Stalled some Friday but a good recovery.
TELK 12/09 Cup hdl 21.72 -0.3 22.34 26.84 238K 662K 20.78
Buy Not Hit. Looks quite nice in its handle with volume surging
Thursday. Tapped back Friday but on low volume.
TRPH 12/11 Test BO 6.38 -0.06 6.49 7.68 718K 1.7M 5.93
Current. HOlding over the 10 day MVA after falling back mid
week. Recovered off the to day to close the action.
Good point to continue the breakout.
TRPH 12/01 Test 50 6.38 -0.06 5.58 6.94 718K 1.7M 5.93
Current.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 39.83 +1.37 23.42 27.62 562K 603K 39.78
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 39.83 +1.37 21.88 26 562K 603K 39.78
Current.
TTEC 11/19 Test BO 10.45 -0.19 10.25 12.27 273K 660K 10.22
Current. Working laterally along the 18 day MVA as it tries
to set up for the next move.
TTI 12/13 A Wedge 23.4 +0.4 24.35 29.25 236K 165K 22.81
Buy Not Hit.
ULGX 11/13 DB hdl 6.8 +0.38 6.51 8.12 87K 130K 6.05
Current. Nice action to end the week, rebounding from the 18
day MVA support. Could use more volume, but not bad.
VAR 10/28 Cup hdl 69.29 -0.57 64.5 74.25 322K 1.1M 68.35
Current. Good Thursday bounce but stalled out Friday. Nice
uptrend continues if a bit more volatile this last week.
VLGC 12/12 Test BO 2.8 +0.05 2.94 3.54 949K 1.3M 2.68
Buy Not Issued.
VLGC 11/10 Cup 2.8 +0.05 2.14 2.82 949K 1.3M 2.56
Current. Started up off teh 18 day MVA test Thursday and Friday.
Gave much of the Friday move back but money flow is
still shooting higher.
WMS 11/21 Dbl btm 25.3 -0.09 25.83 31.22 135K 650K 25.68
Current. Holding the 50 day MVA after the test, trying to rebound
Thursday but stalling Friday. Needs to make the move.
ZMH 08/09 Test BO 66.4 +0.5 51.12 59.55 557K 3M 65.04
Current. Still working over the 18 day MVA in a nice consolidation
on low volume.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ARDI 11/10 Put 12.46 +0.07 11.95 10.06 279K 1M 12.62
Current. Doji below the 50 day MVA on very low volume. Volume
trailed off on the late week bounce. Looking for that
to translate into another move lower this week.
LLTC 12/09 Put 41.2 -0.53 40.72 37 4.2M 5M 42
Buy Not Hit.
LNCR 12/10 Put 31.91 -0.39 31.04 28.04 971K 2.5M 32.12
Buy Not Hit.
SLVN 12/10 Put 28.43 -0.59 28.24 25.18 313K 484K 29.62
Buy Not Hit.
SMH 12/13 Put 40.91 -0.04 40.62 38.12 11M 16M 41.38
Buy Not Hit.
SSTI 12/09 Put 11.84 +0.26 10.56 8.55 2.8M 2.4M 11.55
Current. Doji at the simple 50 day MVA on lower volume so we
left it alone as that typically indicates the bounce
to resistance is over.
TTMI 12/13 Put 15.05 +0.35 14.68 12.12 658K 700K 15.32
Buy Not Hit.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
