|
|
us stock market, stock trading site
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: GBN; MTMD; ARDI; SLAB; SLV; SMTC; TTMI
Best Plays:
1) JBLU: Tested the 50 day MVA and is now falling again.
2) CECO: Falling through the 200 day MVA on rising volume.
3) GTI: Starting a breakout move on some very solid volume.
4) TEK: Holding the 10 day MVA and still looks ready.
5) AV: Rolling over after the 10 day MVA test.
6) SLAB: Tested the 18 day MVA and it too is rolling over.
NEW PLAYS:
Downside:
Play Date: 12/15/2003
JBLU (Jetblue Airways--$27.03; -0.38; optionable): Regional airline
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jblu.html
STATUS: Put. JBLU is in a continuing downtrend that started in October when the stock hit 45 (pre-split). Seven sessions back JBLU collapsed, gapping below the 200 day MVA (29.48) on tremendous volume. It has made a lateral move to try and test that level the past week but has been unable to make the break back over that key level. Monday it gapped up to the 10 day MVA (29.01) but then sold all session with volume rising though still below average. Still under distribution and looks ready for another leg down toward the low twenties before it finds the bottom.
Volume: 2.66M Avg Volume: 2.527M
BUY POINT: $26.68 Volume=3M Target=$23.15 Stop=$29.05
POSITION: JCG OF - Mar. $40p (-65 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jblu.html
Play Date: 12/15/2003
CECO (Career Education--$37.62; -2.65; optionable): Education and training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
STATUS: Put. CECO was the one to get all of the education and training stocks to take the plunge with allegations of padding enrollment figures. That led to a massive plunge 2 weeks back where the stock careened lower and broke the 200 day MVA (38.29). It rebounded over that level and has attempted to rally off of that important support, but volume was much lower. After a test of the 10 day MVA (40.95) last Friday, however, CECO rolled over on much stronger, above average volume. We are going to move in on a further drop on volume. Still under heavy distribution as mutual funds unwind their positions in this former leader.
Volume: 7.395M Avg Volume: 1.891M
BUY POINT: $37.24 Volume=4M Target=$33.05 Stop=$38.45
POSITION: CUY MU - Jan. $37.50p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ceco.html
Upside:
Play Date: 12/15/2003
GTI (Graftech Intl.--$12.15; +0.65; optionable): Graphite and other products for electrical industry
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gti.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Kind of a stretch to call it that, but GTI is in a 5 week pattern forming over the 18 day MVA (11.63) and below 12.50 on the highs. Accumulation is a solid 2 to 0 (2 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume), money flow is shooting higher ahead of price, and relative strength is ready to breakout with the stock. Great foundation for a strong run after the breakout.
Volume: 1.975M Avg Volume: 794.863K
BUY POINT: $12.38 Volume=1.2M Target=$14.88 Stop=$11.51
POSITION: GTI CV - Mar. $12.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gti.html
Play Date: 12/15/2003
RFMI (RF Monolithics--$9.47; +0.07; no options): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rfmi.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. RFMI is working laterally over the 18 day MVA (8.98) the past two weeks after breaking from a 17 week cup base. Accumulation in the pattern is excellent at 5 to 1. Solid money flow and relative strength ready to make the breakout. Volume was higher and above average when RFMI made the move in early December, but it was not blowout. Nonetheless it was breakout caliber. After this lateral move we need to see volume surge as RFMI breaks through the buy point over 10.
Volume: 45.167K Avg Volume: 85.727K
BUY POINT: $10.12 Volume=129K Target=$12.22 Stop=$9.32
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rfmi.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/01/2003
BWC (Belden--$19.81; -0.08; no options): Industrial electrical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bwc.html
STATUS: Flat base. BWC is trading at the upper end of a 15 week base that has formed and held over the 50 day MVA (19.13) as it did so. Accumulation in the base is a solid 4 to 1, and BWC has held up well as the market pulled back. Thursday BWC jumped off the 50 day MVA (19.13) but failed to clear the jumble of closes from 20 to 20.65 the last two weeks. It continues to move up the 50 day MVA on the lows, building pressure from below. It has held the 18 day MVA (19.69) the past two sessions and trying to make a higher low. Again, it has held up as the market has tanked, and a breakout on volume makes it a potential leader in the next phase.
Volume: 88.8K Avg Volume: 94.227K
BUY POINT: $20.52 Volume=155K Target=$24.65 Stop=$19.32
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bwc.html
Play Date: 12/13/2003
MICU (Vicuron Pharma--$18.72; -0.01; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/micu.html
STATUS: Flat base. Tried the breakout from the 10 week base, but after running up to 19.46 it turned with the market and fell back. It managed a flat close, however, thus keeping it in the base that sports strong 4 to 0 accumulation (4 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume). Excellent money flow is trying to lead the stock higher. MICU is still in good shape, and we will see if it can reload here and make the breakout stick.
Volume: 492.056K Avg Volume: 367.045K
BUY POINT: $19.12 Volume=488K Target=$22.95 Stop=$17.98
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/micu.html
Play Date: 12/10/2003
OMCL (Omnicell--$15.81; -0.24; no options): Healthcare medication and supply dispensing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/omcl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Ran to 17 on the high with slightly rising trade, but came back with the rest of the market by the close. Still holding in the handle to its 10 week base showing solid 3 to 0 accumulation. Again, excellent price/volume action in the handle with a couple of strong volume spikes that are telling us to 'get ready' for a breakout. The market was not cooperating Monday, but OMCL held that pattern so we will see if it can make the break later this week.
Volume: 222.329K Avg Volume: 184.909K
BUY POINT: $16.62 Volume=300K Target=$19.95 Stop=$15.46
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/omcl.html
Play Date: 12/13/2003
TEK (Tektronix--$27.39; -0.04; optionable): Scientific and technical instrumentation
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tek.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Not bad action, finishing basically flat as it again holds over the 10 day MVA (27.14). Given the market conditions, this was great action in its 8 week base showing solid 2 to 0 accumulation, excellent money flow, and relative strength ready to make the breakout. The base formed over the 50 day MVA, an indication of the support for the stock as big money uses this level to accumulate additional positions. Being pateint, letting it reload and make the next breakout move.
Volume: 347.9K Avg Volume: 381.272K
BUY POINT: $27.84 Volume=450K Target=$33.42 Stop=$26.78
POSITION: TEK DE - Apr. $25c (85 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tek.html
Downside:
Play Date: 12/08/2003
AV (Avaya--$11.48; -0.43; optionable): Telecom systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/av.html
STATUS: Put. After rallying back up to the 10 day MVA (12.03) Monday and then rolled over. This comes after AV dove lower early last week in its continued breakdown below the 50 day MVA (12.41). AV started down but the move was on lower volume. Still looks ready to roll lower. The target at 10 is our initial goal, but AV could easily drop to 9.
Volume: 3.511M Avg Volume: 5.5M
BUY POINT: New: $11.53 (orig. $11.75) Volume=6.8M Target=$10 is initial, but 9 is likely if volume picks up again. Stop=$12.01
POSITION: AV OV - Mar. $12.50p (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/av.html
Play Date: 12/10/2003
LOW (Lowes--$54.18; -0.87; optionable): Home improvement
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/low.html
STATUS: Put. LOW gapped up to the 50 day MVA (56.56) at the open and then turned and ran lower on rising, average volume. It closed at the low but still just over the recent lows at 54. It is still a buy on a continuing move through 54 on average or better volume.
Volume: 3.53M Avg Volume: 3.576M
BUY POINT: New: $53.96 (orig. $54.65) Volume=4M Target=$50.88 Stop=$54.75
POSITION: LOW MK - Jan. $35p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/low.html
Play Date: 12/09/2003
SLAB (Silicon Labs--$42.49; -1.82; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slab.html
STATUS: Put. After making the 10 and 18 day MVA (44.80, 46.07), Friday SLAB showed some higher volume churn. Monday it fell again, posting a solid point loss. Plenty of room to the downside for new positions. SLAB is in a downtrend for the past 5 weeks after a strong June to October run ran out of gas and rolled over. Looks ready to make a quick trip toward the 200 day MVA down at 37.54. Again, our target is not that far, but if it is tanking when it hits the target, we won't stop it.
Volume: 1.28M Avg Volume: 1.248M
BUY POINT: New: $42.34 (orig. 44.92) Volume=1.3M Target=$38.45 Stop=$43.45
POSITION: QFJ MI - Jan. $45p (-67 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/slab.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
stock trading site
|
