stock recommendation, stock option

Begin part 3 of 3

THE PLAYS

Good movers Monday: EAR; TGA; SMH; SSTI

Weekend play results:
LCAV: Gapped higher but could not hold the move as volume was very low.
TSAI: Tried to continue the breakout move but gave it all back and more. Back to the breakout point.
SMH: Diving below the 50 day MVA on huge volume.

New Plays for Tuesday:

Upside:

Play Date: 12/15/2003
AIR (AAR Corp.--$11.9; +1; no options): Value added products and services to the worldwide aviation industry
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/air.html
STATUS: Cup. AIR is breaking out of a 7 week cup base sporting excellent 4 to 1 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume). Monday volume shot higher and was well above average as AIR broke out and relative strength broke out as well, a good indication of the support for the move. AIR has made a 5 month run up the 50 day MVA (10.07) and needed this little base. Nice pattern and nice action as it makes the breakout.
Volume: 298.9K Avg Volume: 94.09K
BUY POINT: $12.15 Volume=150K Target=$14.55 Stop=$11.24
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/air.html

Downside:

Play Date: 12/15/2003
FDO (Family Dollar Stores--$33.72; -0.87; optionable): Discount variety stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdo.html
STATUS: Put. FDO is in a continuing downtrend, failing Monday after a low volume test of the 10 day MVA (34.99) after a nasty plunge to start the month. Volume jumped higher as it turned and plunged from the 10 day as FDO suffered from the WMT news as well. After this breakdown below the 200 day MVA (200.37) FDO is ready to make another bigger drop. Heavy distribution and money flow continues to dive. Relative strength is in the toilet.
Volume: 1.937M Avg Volume: 806.909K
BUY POINT: $33.44 Volume=1.2M Target=$30.38 Stop=$35.04
POSITION: FDO PG - Apr. $35p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/fdo.html

Look ready for Tuesday: CTRA; GOLD; RWY; VLGC; LNCR

Play Date: 12/10/2003
LNCR (Lincare Holdings--$31.42; -0.49; optionable): Specialized health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lncr.html
STATUS: Put. After breaking below the 200 day MVA (33.70) to end November, it has rallied back up to test that breakdown on very low, below average volume. It made it up to the 18 day MVA (32.87), gapping higher Monday and then rolling over to close right at the low. Heavy distribution and diving money flow. Rolling over and looks ready for a deeper plunge.
Volume: 1.329M Avg Volume: 1.927M
BUY POINT: $31.04 Volume=2.5M Target=$28.04 Stop=$32.12
POSITION: LQN NZ - Feb. $32.50p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/lncr.html

SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they set up well.

Still looking for some fresh blood. Please forward any favorites that you feel would be good, solid inserts.

AVID, COH, DIS, GTRC, KKD, LPNT, OCR, TGT, UTSI, XMSR

TGT: Unloaded on the WMT news, dropping to 37 where it has found support in the past.

UTSI: Gapped higher but rolled back over. Still holding and it was a rough market day.

SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST

We continually receive ideas for potential plays from our subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look at them and sometimes find a few pearls. This weekend we are starting a new feature where we include some subscriber choices that could develop into plays. We are not necessarily endorsing these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to their portfolio. Typically we will put these on without commentary, but if we see something we really like or dislike we will point it out. That way we can maybe come up with some new plays, find some plays that may fit your style, and have another great educational tool to discuss problems or good aspects about stocks our subscribers are looking at.

IONA: One we have been looking at, IONA vaulted Wednesday on volume. It ahs moved laterally the past two days. Volume moved back up Monday as IONA tried to make the breakout but gave the move back. Still solid.

CERN: One real possibility to the downside, CERN gapped through the 50 day MVA last week and has edged back up to that level on low trade. It rolled over Monday on rising though still below average volume. Ready to dump lower from the look of it.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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