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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: CPHD; SMTC
Best Plays:
1) RTH: Looking for a test then a drop.
2) CHL: Nice doji and looks ready.
3) AVX: Outstanding test.
4) OMCL: Set up nicely.
5) CY: Ready to roll back down.
6) LOW: Bouncing up to test the resistance and setting up the next move.
NEW PLAYS:
Downside:
Play Date: 12/17/2003
RTH (Retail Holders Trust--$88.25; +1.54; optionable): Retail ETF
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rth.html
STATUS: Put. RTH formed a broad top in October and November, and then started down this month. It broke the 50 day MVA (90.32) early on and is now starting a downtrend that struggles each time it hits near the 18 day MVA (89.51). It is in the process of rallying back up right now, and we are looking for it to tap near th e18 day and then roll over. That is when we enter.
Volume: 2.854M Avg Volume: 774.326K
BUY POINT: Rally up to test 89.50 to 90, then $89.44 on the way back down. Volume=2.5M Target=$85.38 Stop=$90.45
POSITION: RTH MR - Jan. $90p (-68 delta) or RTH PR - Apr. $90p (-56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rth.html
Upside:
Play Date: 12/17/2003
ATVI (Activision--$16.41; -0.07; optionable): Multimedia software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atvi.html
STATUS: Double bottom. ATVI is attempting to breakout from its short 6 week base that has formed on top of a 4 month base, a base on base pattern that works to shakeout all of the sellers. The current base is shwoing solid 2 to 0 accumulation (2 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume). Tuesday volume shot higher as ATVI rose toward the breakout. Wednesday it took a pause with the market on low volume. Money flow is shooting up ahead of price, and we are looking for ATVI to break higher from this pattern.
Volume: 1.621M Avg Volume: 1.643M
BUY POINT: $16.71 Volume=2.5M Target=$29 Stop=$15.54
POSITION: AQV BC - Feb. $15c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/atvi.html
Play Date: 12/17/2003
CHL (China Mobile--$14.86; -0.16; optionable): Chinese wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chl.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. A very nice 10 week base has formed over the 50 day MVA (14.36). It is a sign of strength when a stock can hold over this key support level as it bases; big money is buying at that level, picking up the stock at lower prices. That shows in the accumulation, a strong 3 to 0. Wednesday CHL tapped the 18 day MVA on the low (14.67) and rebounded to close just over the 10 day MVA, showing a doji on the cnadlestick chart. That often is a prelude to the breakout move.
Volume: 218.7K Avg Volume: 526.59K
BUY POINT: $15.45 Volume=790K Target=$18.55 Stop=$14.58
POSITION: CHL CC - Mar. $15c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/chl.html
Play Date: 12/17/2003
DTPI (Diamondcluster Intl.--$9.67; -0.09; no options): Efficiency experts to international clients
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dtpi.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. DTPI has formed an 8 week pattern over the 50 day MVA (8.65). This short base follows a 6 month run from the April breakout; it needed a breather. It has been a constructive breather with big money using the pattern to accumulate positions (accumulation is a strong 3 to 0). It is butting up against the top of the pattern at 10, and we want to see volume jump as it breaks out. These patterns can yield explosive breakouts.
Volume: 138.403K Avg Volume: 384.98K
BUY POINT: $10.12 Volume=577K Target=$12.22 Stop=$9.41
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dtpi.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/01/2003
ALTI (Altair Nanotechnologies--$2.05; -0.03; no options): Industrial metals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alti.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After a surging move to start the month ALTI is right back at the breakout point, holding at the 10 day MVA (2.04) on very low, below average volume. That is exactly what you want to see as the stock settles at support. Money flow is tremendous, relative strength is holding up well. Just waiting for the next above average volume move to set the next buy point.
Volume: 548.783K Avg Volume: 1.38M
BUY POINT: New: $2.12 (orig. $2.05) Volume=1.2M Target=$2.74 Stop=$1.94
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/alti.html
Play Date: 12/11/2003
AVX (AVX Corp.--$16; -0.15; optionable): Diversified electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avx.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. AVX surged out of its 3.5 month base last week on solid trade, rallied to 17 and then came back to test the move. Volume surged again Wednesday as AVX held support at 16 and AVX traded in a tight range. Ready to turn back up and continue the breakout move.
Volume: 565.8K Avg Volume: 296.045K
BUY POINT: $16.25 Volume=450K Target=$19.55 Stop=$15.25
POSITION: AVX EC - May $15c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/avx.html
Play Date: 12/13/2003
MICU (Vicuron Pharma--$18.45; -0.32; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/micu.html
STATUS: Flat base. Still working in the 10 week base, holding the 18 day MVA (18.19) on the intraday lows as it sets for the breakout. Strong 4 to 0 accumulation (4 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume) in the base, setting the foundation for a strong breakout and run. Excellent money flow is trying to lead the stock higher. Holding up well, but need to be patient and see it blast higher.
Volume: 310.443K Avg Volume: 357.454K
BUY POINT: $19.12 Volume=488K Target=$22.95 Stop=$17.98
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/micu.html
Play Date: 12/10/2003
OMCL (Omnicell--$16.06; +0.36; no options): Healthcare medication and supply dispensing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/omcl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Continues to form a nice handle to its 10 week base built on solid 3 to 0 accumulation. Volume dropped off the table Wednesday as OMCL tapped the 10 day MVA on the low (15.53) and started to bounce. Excellent price/volume action in the handle with a couple of strong volume spikes that are telling us to 'get ready' for a breakout.
Volume: 84.957K Avg Volume: 211K
BUY POINT: $16.62 Volume=300K Target=$19.95 Stop=$15.46
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/omcl.html
Play Date: 12/13/2003
TEK (Tektronix--$27.07; -0.19; optionable): Scientific and technical instrumentation
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tek.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Tantalyzing us as it continues very quiet, orderly trade over the 18 day MVA (27.00). It continues to form the handle to its 9 week base showing solid 2 to 0 accumulation and strong money flow. Another base that formed over the 50 day MVA, an indication of the support for the stock as big money uses this level to accumulate additional positions. Waiting, waiting, waiting for the breakaway breakout move.
Volume: 368.6K Avg Volume: 381.136K
BUY POINT: $27.84 Volume=450K Target=$33.42 Stop=$26.78
POSITION: TEK DE - Apr. $25c (85 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tek.html
Downside:
Play Date: 12/15/2003
CECO (Career Education--$37.85; +0.4; optionable): Education and training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
STATUS: Put. Still struggling below the 200 day MVA (38.42) after the massive tank on allegations of padding enrollment figures. It rebounded to the 10 day MVA (42.28) but failed. Heavy distribution, diving money flow. Looking for it roll down, but want to see volume spike as it does.
Volume: 2.083M Avg Volume: 3.34M
BUY POINT: $37.24 Volume=4M Target=$33.05 Stop=$38.45
POSITION: CUY MU - Jan. $37.50p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ceco.html
Play Date: 12/16/2003
CY (Cypress Semiconductor--$19.74; +0.14; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cy.html
STATUS: Put. Still struggling below the 50 day MVA (20.60) after CY broke through that level last week, tapped 19, and then rebounded to try the 50 day one more time. The 50 day MVA breakdown after a double top in November and December opens the door to further downside. Stock is under distribution and money flow is tanking still. Showed a doji Wednesday as it trades below the 10 day MVA (20.27); that often indicates a further move down below the resistance level.
Volume: 2.052M Avg Volume: 3.388M
BUY POINT: $19.48 Volume=4M Target=$17.65 Stop=$20.62
POSITION: CY OD - Mar. $20p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cy.html
Play Date: 12/10/2003
LOW (Lowes--$54.84; +1.28; optionable): Home improvement
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/low.html
STATUS: Put. LOW formed a broad top in October and November and then broke the 50 day MVA (56.38) early this month and is now moving down the 10 day MVA (55.27). After a hard fall Monday and Tuesday, LOW rallied back to the 10 day Wednesday on lower though still above average volume. Looking for it to fail around this level and then roll back over.
Volume: 4.037M Avg Volume: 3.469M
BUY POINT: New: $53.96 (orig. $54.65) Volume=4M Target=$50.88 Stop=$54.75
POSITION: LOW MK - Jan. $35p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/low.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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