stock recommendation, stock picking

Begin part 3 of 3

THE PLAYS

Good movers Wednesday: AIR; FL; GMR; TGA; VLGC; SSTI

Tuesday night play results:
NGAS: Exploded higher but then gave it all back, closing flat.
ONNN: Lower volume, holding up well and still ready.
EV: Rallied up over the 50 day MVA, tapped the 10 day, and then fell back to close a the 50 day. Will see if it rolls down from here.

New Plays for Thursday:

Upside:

Play Date: 12/17/2003
PROX (Proxim--$1.75; +0.04; no options): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prox.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Not near the high, but has formed a nice 14 week base sporting solid 5 to 2 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume), setting up the foundation for a solid breakout and run. PROX tried a base from May to August, but it could not hold the breakout, slipping into the current pattern. Money flow is solid and PROX was jumping after hours, and we are looking at picking it up if the volume is there Thursday.
Volume: 1.735M Avg Volume: 2.522M
BUY POINT: $1.96 Volume=3.8M Target=$2.62 Stop=$1.82
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/prox.html

Downside:

Play Date: 12/17/2003
MU (Micron Technology--$11.5; -0.17; optionable): Memory chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mu.html
STATUS: Put. MU moved laterally for 4 months July to October. It peaked at 15 and has rolled over. Now it is falling, bouncing down under the 10 and 18 day MVA (11.90, 12.19). It rises up to tap them, then fails and continues the downtrend. This is just the opposite of a stock that breaks out from an upside pattern and runs UP the 10 and 18 day MVA. MU just tapped the 10 day MVA on the Tuesday high and rolled down. It also is below the 200 day MVA (12.05); that is never a good sign as it usually begets more selling. Looks ready for more downside.
Volume: 12.41M Avg Volume: 12.525M
BUY POINT: $11.45 Volume=14M Target=$9.95 Stop=$11.92
POSITION: MU PN - Apr. $12p (-55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mu.html

Look ready for Wednesday: RWY; SWC; ALTI; ONNN; LNCR

SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they set up well.

Still looking for some fresh blood. Please forward any favorites that you feel would be good, solid inserts.

AVID, COH, DIS, GTRC, KKD, LPNT, OCR, TGT, UTSI, XMSR

OCR: Trying a 50 day MVA as it did in November, its second such test since breaking out of a cup with handle to start October. Want to see volume coming in.

COH: Important struggle here at the 50 day MVA. It tanked Tuesday but rallied back. Nneds to get over 37.50 to break up a toppish pattern.

SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST

We continually receive ideas for potential plays from our subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look at them and sometimes find a few pearls. This weekend we are starting a new feature where we include some subscriber choices that could develop into plays. We are not necessarily endorsing these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to their portfolio. Typically we will put these on without commentary, but if we see something we really like or dislike we will point it out. That way we can maybe come up with some new plays, find some plays that may fit your style, and have another great educational tool to discuss problems or good aspects about stocks our subscribers are looking at.

FMTI: A stock that was really exciting in late August and early September when it formed a flat base and then exploded higher. It peaked at 3 in October, and is now forming a double bottom base with the right leg undercutting the left in a classic pattern. There is some resistance at 2.50, and we think it might form a handle here. When it does we will look for the high volume breakout.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

stock recommendation
stock picking