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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Thursday: AIR; ALTI; EBAY; FL; WMS
Wednesday night play results:
PROX: Gapped higher on strong trade, but showed a doji. Need to see more upside follow through.
MU: Rallied up to the 200 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Expecting it to turn over here.
New Plays for Friday:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/18/2003
RHAT (Red Hat--$14.28; +1.11; optionable): Internet software & services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rhat.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A very sweet little 7 week base sporting positive 3 to 2 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) is setting the foundation for a breakout and run. The base formed over the 50 day MVA (12.52) with the two legs holding at that level. That shows us that the big money was steppign in to buy the stock at that point. Thursday RHAT was jumping out of the handle (lateral move on low volume that shakes out the last sellers) on a big volume surge. It closed well off the high but we feel that gives us a better entry point for this play.
Volume: 6.976M Avg Volume: 4.075M
BUY POINT: $14.45 Volume=5.5M Target=$17.38 Stop=$13.29
POSITION: RCV CV - Mar. $12.50c (79 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rhat.html
Play Date: 12/18/2003
TXN (Texas Instruments--$28.88; +1.2; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/txn.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. TXN peaked in early November at 31.67and then started to fade back as NASDAQ started its struggles. It has come back to hold some price support at 28 along with the 50 day MVA (27.83). Thursday it jumped off of this level on risng, above average volume. It made a false start last week, but when it came back from that it did manage to hold the 50 day. We will look for a strong volume move to continue the bounce and start a position as it does.
Volume: 17.083M Avg Volume: 11.748M
BUY POINT: $29.15 Volume=18M Target=$35 Stop=$28.22
POSITION: TXN DY - Apr. $27.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/txn.html
Play Date: 12/18/2003
AZPN (Aspen Technology--$9.17; +0.82; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/azpn.html
STATUS: Flat base. We were looking through the market Thursday and saw AZPN making this move on strong volume. Strong 3 to 1 accumulation in the 7 week base with surging money flow and a relative strength breakout showing the strength of the base. When relative strength breaks out when the rest of the market is surging, that is a good sign. Issued the buy late in the session, and it is still a buy on a further move.
Volume: 2.425M Avg Volume: 696.318K
BUY POINT: New: $9.24 (orig. $9.17) Volume=1M Target=$11.12 Stop=$8.25
POSITION: ZQP EB - May $10c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/azpn.html
Look ready for Friday: RWY; SWC; ALTI; ONNN; LNCR; AIRN; FSII
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they set up well.
Still looking for some fresh blood. Please forward any favorites that you feel would be good, solid inserts.
AVID, COH, DIS, GTRC, KKD, LPNT, OCR, TGT, UTSI, XMSR
No write-ups tonight.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from our subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look at them and sometimes find a few pearls. This weekend we are starting a new feature where we include some subscriber choices that could develop into plays. We are not necessarily endorsing these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to their portfolio. Typically we will put these on without commentary, but if we see something we really like or dislike we will point it out. That way we can maybe come up with some new plays, find some plays that may fit your style, and have another great educational tool to discuss problems or good aspects about stocks our subscribers are looking at.
SEBL: Making the breakout move from a short 7 week double bottom base that formed over the 50 day MVA. Relative strength is breaking out and solid money flow.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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