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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers Thursday: ALTI; ATVI; CORV; CPHD; MHR; MTMD; NOVL; OMCL; VSH; WMS
NEW PLAYS:
Downside:
Play Date: 12/18/2003
VSEA (Varian Semiconductor--$42.02; +2.11; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsea.html
STATUS: Put. After bouncing up the 50 day MVA (43.46) through mid-November, VSEA has rolled over, breaking through the 50 day to start the month. Last week it rallied back to test the level but then failed. It is trying a lower volume move back up right now, and we are looking for it to continue the move to test the 18 day MVA (42.98) or the 50 day, then fail. That is when we will move into the stock.
Volume: 667.665K Avg Volume: 678.136K
BUY POINT: Test 43 to 43.50, then $42.95 on the way back down. Volume=1M Target=$39.25 Stop=$43.72
POSITION: UES NI - Feb. $45p (-70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vsea.html
Upside:
Play Date: 12/18/2003
BJS (BJ Services--$36.54; +1.19; optionable): Oil and gas services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bjs.html
STATUS: Test 200 day MVA. BJS is trying to shake off a 6 month downtrend, rallying over the 200 day MVA (35.55) the past two weeks after a strong move off of the lows near 30. it bounced over the 200 day and has come back to test and hold that level. Volume shot higher Thursday as BJS jumped off the 200 day. Money flow is huge, surging well ahead of price as the oil stocks are being snapped up. We are looking to jump in and grab ahold of some of the momentum. If it turns into more, great. Using options to leverage our way in.
Volume: 5.352M Avg Volume: 2.433M
BUY POINT: $36.74 Volume=3.6M Target=$40.55 Stop=$35.42
POSITION: BJS DG - Apr. $35c (68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bjs.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/01/2003
ALTI (Altair Nanotechnologies--$2.23; +0.18; no options): Industrial metals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alti.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Volume jumped Thursday as ALTI moved off the 10 day MVA (2.08). It closed off the high (2.34) but managed to hold most of the gains. Looking very good and ready to continue the breakout move after a huge surge to start the month. Outstanding money flow looks ready to lead the stock back up.
Volume: 2.512M Avg Volume: 1.363M
BUY POINT: New: 2.36 (orig. $2.05) Volume=1.2M Target=$2.95 Stop=$1.94
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/alti.html
Play Date: 12/13/2003
TEK (Tektronix--$27.67; +0.6; optionable): Scientific and technical instrumentation
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tek.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. That quiet action turned into a high volume move Thursday as TEK jumped toward the breakout form its 9 week base showing solid 2 to 0 accumulation and strong money flow. Another base that formed over the 50 day MVA, an indication of the support for the stock as big money uses this level to accumulate additional positions. Looks ready for the breakaway move.
Volume: 894.1K Avg Volume: 382.727K
BUY POINT: $27.84 Volume=450K Target=$33.42 Stop=$26.78
POSITION: TEK DE - Apr. $25c (85 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tek.html
Downside:
Play Date: 12/17/2003
RTH (Retail Holders Trust--$88.9; +0.65; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rth.html
STATUS: Put. Making the rebound in the downtrend, moving up toward the 18 day MVA (89.45) on much lower, below average volume Thursday. It gapped higher Thursday but traded in a narrow range on the WMT gains (upgraded). Weak action, and this is the test we were looking for to set up the downside play. It might test a bit higher here to test the 18 day, but if retailers start to sell again we will not hesitate to move in.
Volume: 838.4K Avg Volume: 795.182K
BUY POINT: Test 89.50 to 90, then $89.44. From here: $88.55 Volume=2.5M Target=$85.38 Stop=$90.45
POSITION: RTH MR - Jan. $90p (-68 delta) or RTH PR - Apr. $90p (-56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rth.html
Play Date: 12/10/2003
LOW (Lowes--$55.61; +0.77; optionable): Home improvement stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/low.html
STATUS: Put. LOW is working lower below the 10 and 18 day MVA (55.33, 55.98) after forming a broad top in October and November and rolling through the 50 day MVA (56.35) to start the month. The 18 December 2003 has just moved below the 50 day MVA, a negative crossover. Thus we anticipate that LOW will rally to the 18 day on this continued lower and lower volume and stall at that point to continue the move lower.
Volume: 2.861M Avg Volume: 3.475M
BUY POINT: New: Test 56, then $55.06 on the way back down (orig. $53.42) Volume=4M Target=$50.45 Stop=$54.75
POSITION: LOW MK - Jan. $35p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/low.html
CONTINUING:
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
Tonight we add a new feature, a spreadsheet download of the continuing play table. It will allow you to sort and otherwise the data for your own investment use. This is a service to our subscribers only, and no other use of the information is authorized. Simply click on the link, enter your username and password, and download the spreadsheet! You may have to hold down the control key as you click on the link.
http://www.technicaltraders.com/ttr/table.php
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ALTI 12/01 Dbl btm 2.23 +0.18 2.05 2.74 2.5M 1.2M 1.94
Current.
AOT 11/24 Flat 22.53 +0.1 23.37 27.95 404K 405K 22.88
Current.
ATVI 12/17 Dbl btm 19 +2.59 18.52 30.75 12M 2.5M 17.22
Current. Huge gap and kept on running.
AVX 12/11 Flat 16.33 +0.33 16.25 19.55 298K 450K 15.25
Current.
BWC 12/01 Rv H&S 20.31 +0.16 20.52 24.65 59K 155K 19.32
Buy Not Hit.
CEVA 12/16 Rv H&S 9.82 +0.51 9.92 11.92 120K 128K 9.23
Buy Not Issued.
CHL 12/17 Rv H&S 15.05 +0.19 15.45 18.55 343K 790K 14.58
Buy Not Hit.
CORV 12/04 Flat 1.62 +0.1 1.65 2.12 7M 8M 1.48
Current.
CPHD 11/05 A Wedge 8.87 +0.71 6.15 7.52 1.8M 338K 7.54
Current.
CVNS 12/16 Flat 9.97 0 10.38 12.45 24K 145K 9.64
Buy Not Hit.
CYPB 12/08 A Wedge 15.07 +0.42 14.95 17.95 258K 425K 13.88
Current.
DTPI 12/17 A Wedge 9.5 -0.17 10.12 12.22 183K 577K 9.41
Buy Not Hit.
EMBT 10/06 Flat 15.6 +0.39 11.24 13.38 296K 350K 14.42
Current.
EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 15.6 +0.39 9.33 11.12 296K 400K 14.42
Current.
FLDR 12/12 Cup hdl 6.56 -0.14 6.64 8 155K 150K 6.02
Current.
FLDR 11/25 DB hdl 6.56 -0.14 6.19 7.85 155K 150K 6.02
Current.
GBN 10/22 Cup 2.71 -0.08 1.86 2.42 310K 300K 2.45
Current.
GTI 12/15 A Wedge 12.46 +0.01 12.66 15.22 800K 1.2M 11.77
Current.
HOMS 12/11 A Wedge 4.15 -0.45 4.32 5.35 3.5M 1.5M 3.88
Current.
MAXM 12/01 Rv H&S 8.16 0 8.09 9.88 26K 227K 7.88
Current.
MHR 12/08 BO 9.56 +0.3 9.35 11.25 1.2M 365K 8.87
Buy Not Issued.
MICU 12/13 Flat 18.6 +0.15 19.12 22.95 524K 488K 17.98
Buy Not Issued.
MOLX 12/08 Test 50 33.2 +0.95 33.21 38 689K 850K 32.12
Current.
MSPD 12/15 A Wedge 6.96 +0.47 7.15 8.65 542K 1.1M 6.65
Buy Not Hit.
MTMD 12/03 Cup 4.98 +0.08 4.64 6 450K 312K 4.41
Current.
MTX 12/09 Cup hdl 58.25 -0.43 55.82 59.94 103K 150K 58.88
MVSN 11/24 Cup hdl 21.99 +0.86 23.33 27.69 276K 891K 22.32
Current.
NOVL 11/22 Test BO 9.75 +0.33 8.88 10.68 9.3M 10M 8.88
Current.
NPSP 12/06 Cup hdl 30.98 +0.18 31.88 38.25 443K 1.3M 30.22
Buy Not Issued.
OMCL 12/10 Cup hdl 17.08 +1.02 16.95 20.25 534K 300K 15.76
Current.
RFMI 12/15 Test BO 9.5 +0.09 10.12 12.22 80K 129K 9.32
Buy Not Hit.
TEK 12/13 Test 50 27.67 +0.6 27.84 33.42 893K 450K 26.78
Buy Not Hit.
TRPH 12/11 Test BO 6.25 +0.25 6.49 7.68 366K 1.7M 5.93
Current.
TRPH 12/01 Test 50 6.25 +0.25 5.58 6.94 366K 1.7M 5.93
Current.
VSH 11/12 Flat 22.45 +1.08 20.78 24.88 2.2M 3.2M 20.42
Current.
WMS 11/21 Dbl btm 26.62 +1.03 25.83 31.22 222K 650K 25.68
Current.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ARDI 11/10 Put 12.66 +0.87 11.95 10.06 622K 1M 12.62
Current.
AV 12/08 Put 11.75 +0.62 11.75 10 3.9M 6.8M 12.01
Current.
CECO 12/15 Put 37.58 -0.27 37.24 33.05 2M 4M 38.45
Buy Not Issued.
CY 12/16 Put 20.8 +1.06 19.48 17.65 4.1M 4M 20.62
Buy Not Issued.
JBLU 12/15 Put 26.82 -0.29 26.55 23.15 2M 3M 28.78
Current.
LOW 12/10 Put 55.61 +0.77 53.42 50.45 2.8M 4M 54.75
Current.
RTH 12/17 Put 88.9 +0.65 89.44 85.38 838K 2.5M 90.45
Buy Not Hit.
SLAB 12/09 Put 44.46 +2.56 42.6 37.65 1.5M 1.3M 43.72
Current.
SLVN 12/10 Put 27.7 +0.84 28.05 25.02 489K 484K 29.02
Current.
SMTC 12/13 Put 21.63 +1.37 21.25 18.54 1.2M 1.2M 22.18
Current.
TTMI 12/13 Put 15.65 +1.97 14.16 11.55 2.4M 700K 15.04
Current.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock option
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