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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: AZPN; EBAY; LCAV; RHAT
Thursday night play results:
RHAT: Gapped higher and surged to close at session high.
AZPN: Surged for yet another day on very strong volume.
TXN: Stalled out but still holding over the 50 day MVA.
New Plays for Monday:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/20/2003
GNLB (Genelabs--$2.24; +0.14; no options): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gnlb.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working on a breakout from a 6 month base. GNLB rallied to 2.35 in early December, then faded back to the 18 day MVA (2.04) to form the handle. Volume spiked Wednesday and then GNLB jumped sharply higher Friday on another good shot of above average trade. Accumulation in the base is a solid 6 to 3, meaning there have been 6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on volume during the pattern. That shows there is overall net buying in the base, and that sets the foundation for a a good breakout and run higher. Money flow is surging higher and is ahead of price; that is good as price tends to follow the money supply. Relative strength is solid and it is moving toward a breakout of its own, an indication of th estrength of the move.
Volume: 720.413K Avg Volume: 524.225K
BUY POINT: $2.32 Volume=786K Target=$3 Stop=$2.16
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/gnlb.html
Play Date: 12/20/2003
IONA (Iona Technologies--$5.39; -0.07; no options): Integration software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iona.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. IONA broke higher in October and rallied to 5.25. After more than doubling in price it needed a rest. It started that in November and formed a brief 6 week flat base over the 18 day MVA (5.19). It made a high volume breakout two weeks back but then spent last week falling back on very low volume. Friday it hit tapped the 18 day MVA on the low and then snapped back. Money flow is strong, holding its uptrend even as the stock moves laterally and lower. Ready to make a rebound and continue the breakout move.
Volume: 111.035K Avg Volume: 499.785K
BUY POINT: $5.72 Volume=600K Target=$7.15 Stop=$5.29
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/iona.html
Downside:
Play Date: 12/20/2003
CHS (Chicos Fas--$34.59; -0.05; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chs.html
STATUS: Put. CHS has bene a market leader, but it peaked with a modest double top in November and December and fell through the 50 day MVA (34.90) on very strong trade. Last week it managed a rebound on mostly lower volume, showing a doji at the 50 day MVA on Friday. It has been a leader and most likely is not going to tank horribly, just fall back again and form a new base to set up the next upside move. It is set up to fall again, however, and we are looking to make some money off of that drop as it continues to form the bottom of its base.
Volume: 1.43M Avg Volume: 1.193M
BUY POINT: $33.92 Volume=1.5M Target=$30.88 Stop=$34.64
POSITION: CHS NG - Feb. $35p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/chs.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they set up well.
Still looking for some fresh blood. Please forward any favorites that you feel would be good, solid inserts.
AVID, COH, DIS, GTRC, KKD, LPNT, OCR, TGT, UTSI, XMSR
COH: A leader that has come back to test the 50 day MVA and then jumped off that level on strong volume. Friday it gapped higher again on strong trade. It struggled, tapping back to the 18 day MVA on the low, but then rallied again on the close. Still problematical here; it could use a nice lateral move over the 50 day MVA, but this stock may not give it.
DIS: The mouse house is showing new life, rallying off the 18 day MVA on a very strong volume surge. Very nice action. A breakout over 23.50 is a good entyr point.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from our subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look at them and sometimes find a few pearls. This weekend we are starting a new feature where we include some subscriber choices that could develop into plays. We are not necessarily endorsing these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to their portfolio. Typically we will put these on without commentary, but if we see something we really like or dislike we will point it out. That way we can maybe come up with some new plays, find some plays that may fit your style, and have another great educational tool to discuss problems or good aspects about stocks our subscribers are looking at.
NGPS: Testing a strong breakout from late October where NGPS surged to 11 by early December, coming back to the 50 day MVA last week. It is bouncing but on lower volume than the selling. Needs to clear the short term MVA at 9 on very strong trade.
VRC: This is one we looked at intraday Thursday and considered issuing an alert as it surged on tremendous volume. We decided to wait, let it fade back and test the break, and then move in. Friday it did test lower, tapping the 10 day MVA on the low and rebounding to pare some losses. It may snug up a bit more to the 10 day MVA at 20, but after that we anticipate it will start the next move.
CONTINUING:
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
Tonight we add a new feature, a spreadsheet download of the continuing play table. It will allow you to sort and otherwise the data for your own investment use. This is a service to our subscribers only, and no other use of the information is authorized. Simply click on the link, enter your username and password, and download the spreadsheet!
http://investmenthouse.com/daily/table.php
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Look ready for Monday: CTRA; ALTI; IDT; ONNN; SWC; YHOO; SMH
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AIR 12/15 BO 12.27 -0.33 12.04 14.55 212K 150K 11.66
Current. Pull back on much lower, but still strong volume. Testing the break out.
AIRN 12/04 Test BO 2.93 -0.12 3.22 4.18 213K 537K 2.88
Current. Thudded down below the 18 day MVA on low volume. Still in good shape. Testing the break out.
ALTI 12/01 Dbl btm 2.19 -0.03 2.05 2.74 882K 1.2M 2.05
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back on low volume. Still in uptrend.
AVID 08/09 Test 18 48.35 -0.55 0 0 629K 0 0
Forming a base using support at 45 for now. Going to drop for now and let it form up.
AZPN 12/18 Flat 9.96 +0.79 9.17 11.12 2M 1M 8.97
Current. Great move up the 10 day MVA on very strong volume.
CTRA 12/10 Cup hdl 4.03 +0.06 4.25 5.44 266K 500K 3.95
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 3.83 at the day's low (below the 18 day MVA) and rallied showing a tight doji on lower, but still above average volume. Moving up the 10 day MVA.
DIS 08/09 Test 50 23.23 +0.09 22.06 26.48 9M 9M 22.05
EAR 12/02 Cup hdl 2.79 +0.09 1.95 2.54 685K 254K 2.44
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on stronger volume after a small pull back.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 61.37 +1.37 34.72 46 12M 12M 59
Current. Another nice move up on stronger above average volume.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 61.37 +1.37 31.22 46 12M 12M 59
Current.
FDRY 11/24 Flat 25.61 -0.22 24.72 29.72 1.5M 3.5M 25.28
Current. Tapped 25.99 at the day's high, but gave some of it back showing a tight doji on low volume. Beginning to make a lateral move on the 10 day MVA.
FL 10/11 A Wedge 23.16 -0.04 17.38 20.88 956K 1.4M 21.71
Current. Gapped up at the open, but then gave it back and more on low volume. Still in uptrend moving up the 10 day MVA.
FSII 11/25 Flat 7.23 +0.03 6.54 7.98 311K 400K 6.73
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied as the stock continues to move up the 10 day MVA on higher, but still below average volume.
GMR 12/04 Test 18 16.99 +0.02 14.77 17.78 106K 207K 16.14
Current. Tapped 16.49 at the day's low and rallied showing a tight doji on low volume. Making a lateral move above the 10 day MVA.
IBPI 11/09 A Wedge 16.25 -0.21 16.12 19.38 6.6K 358K 15.58
Buy Not Issued. Making a low volume lateral move on the 10 day MVA.
IDT 12/09 Rv H&S 19.86 +0.31 19.79 23.82 194K 200K 19.32
Current. Tapped 20.10 a the high, but gave some of it back on above average volume. Beginning to move back up the 10 day MVA after testing the break out.
INAP 12/08 Test BO 2.17 +0.05 2.22 2.78 4.4M 5.2M 2
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied as stock moves up the 10 day MVA on low volume.
INAP 11/25 Test BO 2.17 +0.05 1.95 2.58 4.4M 5.7M 2
Current.
LCAV 12/13 DB hdl 20 +1.42 18.92 22.75 814K 206K 17.95
Current. Entered the play as the stock made a great move on strong volume surge. Tapped 20.73 at the day's high, but gave back much of the move.
LPNT 08/09 Rv H&S 27.86 -0.53 0 0 455K 1.3M 27.88
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open, but reversed holding above the 50 day MVA on low volume.
NGAS 12/16 Cup hdl 5.42 +0.06 5.74 7.25 271K 195K 5.11
Current. Tapped 5.60 at the high, but gave back much of the gain on lower, but still above average volume. Still in uptrend.
NOOF 11/01 Cup hdl 8.48 -0.27 5.27 6.32 204K 319K 8.22
Current. Thudded down below the 18 day MVA on low volume. Still in good shape.
NOOF 10/25 Cup hdl 8.48 -0.27 4.78 6.21 204K 280K 8.22
Current.
OHI 12/08 Flat 8.8 -0.03 8.71 10.48 64K 200K 8.55
Current. Continue to make a lateral move on low volume along the 10 day MVA.
ONNN 12/16 Test BO 6.36 -0.14 6.78 8.18 901K 3.4M 6.22
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied showing a doji above the 10 day MVA on low volume. Continue to make a lateral move on the 10 day MVA.
PROX 12/17 Cup hdl 1.82 -0.06 1.96 2.62 1.5M 3.8M 1.82
Buy Not Hit. Pull back holding above support on low volume. Still in good shape.
RHAT 12/18 DB hdl 17.49 +3.21 16.51 19.58 32M 5.5M 15.35
Current. Entered a partial position. Gapped up at the open and continued to make a great move up the 10 day MVA on excellent volume surge.
RWY 11/04 Cup hdl 7.98 +0.01 6.24 7.85 76K 146K 7.52
Current. Tapped 7.74 at the low and rallied showing a tight doji on higher, but still low volume. Continues to move up the 10 day MVA.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 32.09 -0.24 30.35 36.75 3.4M 6M 31.32
Current. Continue to base around 32.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 32.09 -0.24 26.3 30.94 3.4M 6M 31.32
Current.
SWC 12/08 Test BO 8.82 +0.07 8.89 10.45 269K 600K 8.46
Current. Showing doji just above the 10 day MVA on low volume. Forming a wedege.
SWC 11/20 Cup 8.82 +0.07 8.19 9.85 269K 600K 8.46
Current.
TGA 12/08 A Wedge 2.57 +0.09 2.12 2.78 400K 305K 2.17
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on lower, but still above average volume.
TGT 08/09 Flat 38.01 -0.49 41.45 50 3.8M 5.7M 38.74
TRPH 12/11 Test BO 6.31 +0.06 6.49 7.68 296K 1.7M 5.93
Current. Beginning to move back up the 10 day MVA on low volume after testing the break out.
TRPH 12/01 Test 50 6.31 +0.06 5.58 6.94 296K 1.7M 5.93
Current.
TSAI 12/13 Flat 21.23 +0.55 21.32 25.35 249K 629K 20.02
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied showing a doji on low volume.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 39.49 -0.72 28.06 31.44 291K 494K 37.94
Current. Gapped up at the open then reversed holding the 50 day MVA on low volume. Still in good shape.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 39.49 -0.72 23.42 27.62 291K 603K 37.94
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 39.49 -0.72 21.88 26 291K 603K 37.94
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 39.49 -0.72 19.3 22.19 291K 577K 37.94
Current.
TXN 12/18 Test 50 28.34 -0.54 29.15 35 17M 18M 28.22
Buy Not Hit. Thudded down to hold the 10 day MVA on strong above average volume. Still in the pattern.
VLGC 12/12 Test BO 3.28 -0.06 3.24 3.92 423K 1.3M 2.94
Current. Continue to make a low volume pull back testing the break out. Managed to retain most of Wednesday's great move.
VLGC 11/10 Cup 3.28 -0.06 2.14 2.82 423K 1.3M 3.15
Current.
VOD 10/28 Cup hdl 24.32 -0.25 21.45 25.75 2.5M 2.8M 23.58
Current. Pull back showing a doji on below average volume. Still in uptrend.
WMS 11/21 Dbl btm 25.8 -0.82 25.83 31.22 360K 650K 25.68
Current. Thudded down to hold the 10 day MVA on higher volume. May test the 18 day MVA.
YHOO 12/11 Rv H&S 42.11 +0.22 44.35 53.25 9.7M 17M 42.22
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 50 day MVA and rallied showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on low volum.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
FDO 12/15 Put 34.45 -0.23 32.35 29.38 1.6M 1.2M 34.53
Current. Fell back down to close at the 10 day MVA.
LNCR 12/10 Put 30.5 -0.1 30.89 28.04 1.5M 2.5M 31.38
Current. Continues to move down the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
MU 12/17 Put 12.33 +0.27 11.45 9.95 13M 14M 11.92
Buy Not Hit. Continued to rally on higher volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
SMH 12/13 Put 40.21 -0.29 40.3 37.85 15M 16M 41.02
Current. Moved down off the 50 day MVA on lower, but still strong volume. May rally to the 18 day MVA before rolling over.
SSTI 12/09 Put 11 +0.49 10.56 8.55 4.2M 2.4M 11.55
Current. Big gap up to open on the 50 day MVA, but reversed holding at the 10 day MVA on lower, but still strong volume. Needs to continue the fade from here.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock option
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