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stock recommendation, stock market report
Begin part 3 of 3
Downside:
Play Date: 12/08/2003
AV (Avaya--$11.4; -0.35; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/av.html
STATUS: Put. AV continues to struggle below resistance. After tanking early in the month it rebounded to tap the 10 day MVA (11.68) but rolled over. It is now making another attempt, but volume faded on the move back up for the test. That is the kind of volume you like to see on breakdowns. Looks ready to roll down from here after crashing out of a good-looking flat base in October and November. Tanking money flow.
Volume: 3.887M Avg Volume: 5.947M
BUY POINT: $11.75 Volume=6.8M Target=$10 Stop=$11.85
POSITION: AV OV - Mar. $12.50p (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/av.html
Play Date: 12/10/2003
LOW (Lowes--$55.33; -0.28; optionable): Home improvement stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/low.html
STATUS: Put. Still strugglign below the 18 day MVA (55.91) and the 50 day MVA (56.31) after breaking lower to start the month. This breakdown followed a broad tom in October and November, a flat head and shoulders that looks like an umbrella on the chart. It After the break below the 50 day MVA it has come back to test that level on lower volume. Volume moved up to average Friday as it tapped the 18 day and then fell back. It has made the test of 56, and now we are looking for it to fail and continue the move lower to form the base.
Volume: 3.452M Avg Volume: 3.569M
BUY POINT: New: Test 56, then $55.06 on the way back down (orig. $53.42) Volume=4M Target=$50.45 Stop=$54.75
POSITION: LOW MK - Jan. $35p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/low.html
Play Date: 12/17/2003
RTH (Retail Holders Trust--$88.45; -0.45; optionable): Retail ETF
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rth.html
STATUS: Put. RTH formed a broad top in October and November, and then started down this month. It broke the 50 day MVA (90.19) early on and is now starting a downtrend that struggles each time it hits near the 18 day MVA (89.34). Indeed, Thursday and Friday as RTH moved up to the 18 day MVA on very low volume, showing dojis at that resistance. That can indicate it is ready to turn and fall once more. Now that it has made the test, we want to see volume increase as it falls.
Volume: 728K Avg Volume: 865.988K
BUY POINT: $88.18 Volume=2.5M Target=$85.38 Stop=$89.44
POSITION: RTH MR - Jan. $90p (-68 delta) or RTH PR - Apr. $90p (-56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rth.html
CONTINUING:
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
Tonight we add a new feature, a spreadsheet download of the continuing play table. It will allow you to sort and otherwise the data for your own investment use. This is a service to our subscribers only, and no other use of the information is authorized. Simply click on the link, enter your username and password, and download the spreadsheet! You may have to hold down the control key as you click on the link.
http://www.technicaltraders.com/ttr/table.php
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ALTI 12/01 Dbl btm 2.19 -0.03 2.05 2.74 882K 1.2M 2.05
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back on low volume. Still in uptrend.
AOT 11/24 Flat 22.41 -0.12 23.37 27.95 499K 405K 22.88
Current. Clears the 10 and 18 day MVA early this week or we
are going to close it.
ATVI 12/17 Dbl btm 18.44 -0.56 18.52 22.22 5.7M 2.5M 17.22
Current.
AVX 12/11 Flat 16.38 +0.05 16.25 19.55 220K 450K 15.89
Current. Tapped 16.67 at the day's high, but gave it back showing a tight doji on below average volume. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA.
BJS 12/18 Test BO 36.26 -0.28 36.74 40.55 2.6M 3.6M 35.42
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 200 day MVA and rallied on average volume. Still in uptrend.
BWC 12/01 Rv H&S 20.22 -0.09 20.52 24.65 91K 155K 19.32
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied showing a doji on higher, but average volume. Making a lateral move along the 10 day MVA.
CEVA 12/16 Rv H&S 9.82 0 9.92 11.92 38K 128K 9.23
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back to close flat on low volume. Still in uptrend.
CHL 12/17 Rv H&S 15.08 +0.03 15.45 18.55 424K 790K 14.58
Buy Not Hit. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back on below average volume. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA.
CORV 12/04 Flat 1.59 -0.03 1.65 2.12 3.5M 8M 1.54
Current. Pull back on low volume. Still in good shape.
CPHD 11/05 A Wedge 8.84 -0.03 6.15 7.52 636K 338K 8.12
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it all back on much lower, but still strong volume. Still in uptrend and moving up the 10 day MVA.
CVNS 12/16 Flat 9.75 -0.22 10.38 12.45 11K 145K 9.64
Buy Not Hit. Thudded down holding just above the 18 day MVA on very low volume. Still in good shape.
CYPB 12/08 A Wedge 14.91 -0.16 14.95 17.95 208K 425K 14.44
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on low volume.
DTPI 12/17 A Wedge 9.27 -0.23 10.12 12.22 128K 577K 9.41
Buy Not Hit. Thudded down below the 18 day MVA on low volume. Needs to hold here and rebound or will look to drop.
EMBT 10/06 Flat 15.64 +0.04 11.24 13.38 105K 350K 14.85
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied showing a tight doji on very low volume. Moving up the 10 day MVA.
EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 15.64 +0.04 9.33 11.12 105K 400K 14.85
Current.
FLDR 12/12 Cup hdl 6.62 +0.06 6.64 8 84K 150K 6.21
Current. Pull back to test the 10 day MVA and rallied on low volume. Testing the break out.
FLDR 11/25 DB hdl 6.62 +0.06 6.19 7.85 84K 150K 6.21
Current.
GBN 10/22 Cup 2.57 -0.14 1.86 2.42 475K 300K 2.45
Current. Thudded down slightly below the 18 day MVA on slightly higher volume. Needs to rebound from here.
GTI 12/15 A Wedge 13.01 +0.55 12.66 15.22 1.2M 1.2M 12.12
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Made a 52 week high.
HOMS 12/11 A Wedge 4.15 0 4.32 5.35 854K 1.5M 3.97
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back closing flat on low volume. Beginning to move back up the 10 day MVA.
MAXM 12/01 Rv H&S 8.28 +0.12 8.09 9.88 49K 227K 7.88
Current. Beginning to move up the 10 day MVA on low volume.
MHR 12/08 BO 9.59 +0.03 9.35 11.25 880K 365K 8.87
Buy Not Issued. continue to move up the 10 day MVA on lower, but still strong volume. Never entered the play because did not like the volatile action. Will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
MICU 12/13 Flat 18.75 +0.15 19.12 22.95 264K 488K 17.98
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied on below average volume. Continue to make a lateral move along the 10 day MVA.
MOLX 12/08 Test 50 33.13 -0.07 33.21 38 1.1M 850K 32.28
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied showing a doji on strong volume surge. Still in good shape, but may test back the 10 day MVA.
MSPD 12/15 A Wedge 6.88 -0.08 7.15 8.65 411K 1.1M 6.65
Buy Not Hit. Tapped support at 6.50 intraday and rallied showing a doji on low volume. Still in the pattern.
MTMD 12/03 Cup 5.08 +0.1 4.64 6 344K 312K 4.68
Current. Gapped up at the open showing a doji and filled in the gap intraday on lower, but still strong volume. Moving up the 10 day MVA.
MTX 12/09 Cup hdl 58.3 +0.05 55.82 59.94 60K 150K 57.55
Hit the target last week and is now testing the 10 day MVA with a nice, orderly test on lower, below average volume. Looks ready to start the move back up.
MVSN 11/24 Cup hdl 22.26 +0.27 23.33 27.69 391K 891K 22.32
Current. Tested the 50 day MVA and rallied on slightly higher volume. Beginning to move back up the 10 day MVA.
NOVL 11/22 Test BO 9.55 -0.2 8.88 10.68 16M 10M 9.08
Current. Gapped up at the open and went up to tap 10.25 at the high, but gave it all back on stronger above average volume. Still in good shape.
NPSP 12/06 Cup hdl 30.32 -0.66 31.88 38.25 459K 1.3M 30.22
Buy Not Issued. Thudded down below the 18 day MVA on low volume. Needs to hold here and rebound or will look to drop.
OMCL 12/10 Cup hdl 16.6 -0.48 16.95 20.25 359K 300K 15.85
Current. Pull back to tap 16.16 at the day's low and rallied on much lower, but still strong volume. Testing the break out.
RFMI 12/15 Test BO 9.33 -0.17 10.12 12.22 110K 129K 9.32
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 8.64 at the intraday low and made a fierce rally showing a doji under the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Doji may indicate a change in the pattern. If stock does not move up from here will look to drop.
TEK 12/13 Test 50 31.05 +3.38 30.35 35.88 2.7M 450K 28.88
Current. Huge gap up at the open and continued for an explosive move on excellent volume surge.
TRPH 12/11 Test BO 6.31 +0.06 6.49 7.68 296K 1.7M 5.93
Current. Beginning to move back up the 10 day MVA on low volume after testing the break out.
TRPH 12/01 Test 50 6.31 +0.06 5.58 6.94 296K 1.7M 5.93
Current.
VSH 11/12 Flat 22.24 -0.21 20.78 24.88 1.4M 3.2M 20.98
Current. Tapped 21.78 at the low and rallied showing a tight doji on below average volume.
WMS 11/21 Dbl btm 25.8 -0.82 25.83 31.22 360K 650K 25.68
Current. Thudded down to hold the 10 day MVA on higher volume. May test the 18 day MVA.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ARDI 11/10 Put 12.72 +0.06 11.95 10.06 526K 1M 12.62
Current. Gapped higher at the open on the simple 50 day MVA and reversed tapping 12.14 at the intraday low on low volume. Stock needs to fall from here.
AV 12/08 Put 11.4 -0.35 11.75 10 3.9M 6.8M 11.85
Current. Fell below the 10 day MVA for a nice move down on low volume
CECO 12/15 Put 36.78 -0.8 37.24 33.05 4.8M 4M 38.45
Buy Not Issued. Tapped the 200 day MVA, but rolled over showing a doji on slightly above average volume. Moving down the 10 day MVA.
JBLU 12/15 Put 26.8 -0.02 26.55 23.15 2.3M 3M 28.02
Current. Continue to make a lateral move under the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
LOW 12/10 Put 55.33 -0.28 53.42 50.45 3.5M 4M 54.75
Current. Gapped up at the open, but reversed and held the 10 day MVA on average volume. Needs to roll over from here.
RTH 12/17 Put 88.45 -0.45 87.98 84.02 728K 2.5M 89.44
Buy Not Hit. Dropped below the 10 day MVA on low volume. Making a lateral move on the 10 day MVA.
SLAB 12/09 Put 42.89 -1.57 42.6 37.65 1.6M 1.3M 43.72
Current. Gapped down to open on the 10 day MVA and fell on stronger above average volume.
SLVN 12/10 Put 27.6 -0.1 28.05 25.02 483K 484K 28.19
Current. Gapped up at the open, but reversed on above average volume. Should continue to move down from here.
SMTC 12/13 Put 21.66 +0.03 21.25 18.54 1.1M 1.2M 22.18
Current. Tapped the 50 day MVA at the intraday high, but fell to hold at the 10 day MVA showing a tight doji on average volume. Needs to roll over from here.
TTMI 12/13 Put 15.91 +0.26 14.16 11.55 1.2M 700K 15.04
Current. Reversed sharply off of intraday high so we left it
for another session to see if it tests the 50 day MVA
for a better exit point.
VSEA 12/18 Put 41.8 -0.22 41.62 38 499K 1M 42.94
Buy Not Hit. Moved down below the 10 day MVA on lower volume. Needs to roll over from here.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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