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Begin part 3 of 3
PLAYS:
New plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/20/2003
IONA (Iona Technologies--$5.39; -0.07; no options): Integration software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iona.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. IONA broke higher in October and rallied to 5.25. After more than doubling in price it needed a rest. It started that in November and formed a brief 6 week flat base over the 18 day MVA (5.19). It made a high volume breakout two weeks back but then spent last week falling back on very low volume. Friday it hit tapped the 18 day MVA on the low and then snapped back. Money flow is strong, holding its uptrend even as the stock moves laterally and lower. Ready to make a rebound and continue the breakout move.
Volume: 111.035K Avg Volume: 499.785K
BUY POINT: $5.72 Volume=600K Target=$7.15 Stop=$5.29
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/iona.html
Play Date: 12/20/2003
OTE (Hellenic Telecom--$6.35; 0; no options): Foreign telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/ote.html
STATUS: Cup with handle. After rallying off of the April low, OTE has dropped back to form the current 19 week base sporting outstanding 6 to 1 accumulation. It has moved laterally the past two weeks forming the handle to the base. After low volume, trade has surged the past four sessions. Friday it tried to make the breakout, rallying to 6.48 on the igh but giving all of the move back. Still very solid and looking for that breakout on continued strong trade.
Volume: 344.9K Avg Volume: 89.734K
BUY POINT: $6.52 Volume=135K Target=$8.15 Stop=$6.19
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ote.html
Play Date: 12/20/2003
QLTI (QLT Inc.--$18.59; +0.06; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlti.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. QLTI formed a 10 week cup base from September to November and then broke higher on a sharp volume jump to start December. It has spent the month moving laterally on mostly lower volume, holding over the 18 day MVA (18.18) on the close. Accumulation in the base was a strong 5 to 2 (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). Money flow continues to rise sharply even as the stock moves laterally and slightly lower over the 18 day MVA. We are looking for the stock to continue to follow that money flow higher. A very nice base.
Volume: 981.346K Avg Volume: 1.071M
BUY POINT: $19.32 Volume=1.2 Target=$23.22 Stop=$18.04
POSITION: QTL CW - Mar. $17.50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qlti.html
Downside:
Play Date: 12/20/2003
CLE (Claires Stores--$38.81; -1.19; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cle.html
STATUS: Put. CLE shot higher in late November in what appears to be an exhaustion move on the current run. It peaked at just over 45 and dumped lower on volume, breaking through the 50 day MVA (39.87). It has spent the past two weeks moving laterally below that level. It tried to retake the 50 day Friday but rolled down after tapping the 10 day MVA. Volume rallied as CLE rolled over. That is the price/volume action you want to see when a stock tests resistance after a break through support.
Volume: 419K Avg Volume: 452.337K
BUY POINT: $38.62 Volume=679K Target=$36 Stop=$40.48
POSITION: CLE NH - Feb. $40p (-61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cle.html
Good movers Friday: BCR; GTI; PMTI; RHAT
Continuing plays ready to move: MSPD; CEVA; ALTI; AVX; DTPI; INAP; NOVL; OSTK ONNN; TTI; RTH
CONTINUING PLAY LIST:
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
Tonight we add a new feature, a spreadsheet download of the continuing play table. It will allow you to sort and otherwise the data for your own investment use. This is a service to our subscribers only, and no other use of the information is authorized. Simply click on the link, enter your username and password, and download the spreadsheet! You may have to hold down the control key as you click on the link.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihalerts/table.php
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AIR 12/15 BO 12.27 -0.33 12.04 14.55 212K 150K 11.66
Current. Pull back on much lower, but still strong volume. Testing the break out.
AIRN 12/04 Test BO 2.93 -0.12 3.22 4.18 213K 537K 2.88
Current. Thudded down below the 18 day MVA on low volume. Still in good shape. Testing the break out.
ALTI 12/01 Dbl btm 2.19 -0.03 2.05 2.74 882K 1.2M 2.05
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back on low volume. Still in uptrend.
AOT 11/24 Flat 22.41 -0.12 23.37 27.95 499K 405K 22.88
Current. Clears the 10 and 18 day MVA early this week or we
are going to close it.
AVX 12/11 Flat 16.38 +0.05 16.25 19.55 220K 450K 15.89
Current. Tapped 16.67 at the day's high, but gave it back showing a tight doji on below average volume. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA.
BCR 12/17 Rv H&S 81.12 +1.27 80.93 92.95 406K 500K 78.72
Current. Entered the playContinue to move up the 10 day MVA for a nice move on above average volume.
CEVA 12/16 Rv H&S 9.82 0 9.92 11.92 38K 128K 9.23
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back to close flat on low volume. Still in uptrend.
CKSW 12/13 Test 50 3.95 -0.04 4.52 5.44 159K 450K 4.09
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 4.02 at the day's high (18 day MVA), but gave it back showing a doji on low volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
CTRA 12/10 Cup hdl 4.03 +0.06 4.25 5.44 266K 500K 3.95
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 3.83 at the day's low (below the 18 day MVA) and rallied showing a tight doji on lower, but still above average volume. Moving up the 10 day MVA.
CYPB 12/08 A Wedge 14.91 -0.16 14.95 17.95 208K 425K 14.44
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on low volume.
DJO 09/11 Cup 28.64 -0.09 14 16.45 141K 100K 25.95
Current. Pull back on much lower, but average volume. Still in uptrend moving up the 10 day MVA.
DTAS 12/09 Flat 9.31 +0.14 9.49 11.88 155K 517K 8.98
Current. Continue to base around 9. Stock needs to move next week or will look to drop.
DTPI 12/17 A Wedge 9.27 -0.23 10.12 12.22 128K 577K 9.41
Buy Not Hit. Thudded down below the 18 day MVA on low volume. Needs to rebound from here or we will look to drop.
EMBT 10/06 Flat 15.64 +0.04 11.24 13.38 105K 350K 14.85
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied showing a tight doji on very low volume. Moving up the 10 day MVA.
EMBT 07/26 Cup hdl 15.64 +0.04 9.33 11.12 105K 400K 14.85
Current.
FLDR 12/12 Cup hdl 6.62 +0.06 6.64 8 84K 150K 6.21
Current. Pull back to test the 10 day MVA and rallied on low volume. Testing the break out.
FLDR 11/25 DB hdl 6.62 +0.06 6.19 7.85 84K 150K 6.21
Current.
FSII 11/25 Flat 7.23 +0.03 6.54 7.98 311K 400K 6.73
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied as the stock continues to move up the 10 day MVA on higher, but still below average volume.
GBN 10/22 Cup 2.57 -0.14 1.86 2.42 475K 300K 2.45
Current. Thudded down slightly below the 18 day MVA on slightly higher volume. Needs to rebound from here.
GTI 12/15 A Wedge 13.01 +0.55 12.66 15.22 1.2M 1.2M 12.12
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Made a 52 week high.
IDT 12/09 Rv H&S 19.86 +0.31 19.79 23.82 194K 200K 19.32
Current. Tapped 20.10 a the high, but gave some of it back on above average volume. Beginning to move back up the 10 day MVA after testing the break out.
INAP 12/08 Test BO 2.17 +0.05 2.22 2.78 4.4M 5.2M 2
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied as stock moves up the 10 day MVA on low volume.
MAXM 12/01 Rv H&S 8.28 +0.12 8.09 9.88 49K 227K 7.88
Current. Beginning to move up the 10 day MVA on low volume.
MSPD 12/15 A Wedge 6.88 -0.08 7.15 8.65 411K 1.1M 6.65
Buy Not Hit. Tapped support at 6.50 and rallied showing a doji on low volume. Still in the pattern.
MTMD 12/03 Cup 5.08 +0.1 4.64 6 344K 312K 4.68
Current. Gapped up at the open showing a doji and filled in the gap intraday on lower, but still strong volume. Moving up the 10 day MVA.
MVSN 11/24 Cup hdl 22.26 +0.27 23.33 27.69 391K 891K 22.32
Current. Tested the 50 day MVA and rallied on slightly higher volume. Beginning to move back up the 10 day MVA.
NGAS 12/16 Cup hdl 5.42 +0.06 5.74 7.25 271K 195K 5.11
Current. Tapped 5.60 at the open, but gave some of it back on much lower, but still above average volume. Still in uptrend.
NOOF 11/01 Cup hdl 8.48 -0.27 5.27 6.32 204K 319K 8.22
Current. Thudded down below the 18 day MVA on low volume. Still in good shape.
NOOF 10/25 Cup hdl 8.48 -0.27 4.78 6.21 204K 280K 8.22
Current.
NOVL 11/22 Test BO 9.55 -0.2 8.88 10.68 16M 10M 9.08
Current. Gapped up at the open and went up to tap 10.25 at the high, but gave it all back on stronger above average volume. Still in good shape.
NTST 12/06 Test BO 15.15 +0.66 14.42 17.28 125K 215K 14.68
Current. Begin to move up on low volume after testing the break out.
OHI 12/08 Flat 8.8 -0.03 8.71 10.48 64K 200K 8.55
Current. Continue to make a lateral move on low volume along the 10 day MVA.
OMCL 12/10 Cup hdl 16.6 -0.48 16.95 20.25 359K 300K 15.85
Current. Pull back to tap 16.16 at the day's low and rallied on much lower, but still strong volume. Testing the break out.
ONNN 12/16 Test BO 6.36 -0.14 6.78 8.18 901K 3.4M 6.22
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied showing a doji above the 10 day MVA on low volume. Continue to make a lateral move on the 10 day MVA.
OSTK 12/11 Test BO 19.03 +0.26 20.12 24.25 226K 658K 18.71
Buy Not Issued. Forming a wedge.
PMTI 12/16 Dbl btm 10.24 +0.23 9.42 11.25 268K 180K 9.98
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA for a nice gain on much lower, but strong volume.
PSSI 11/19 Cup hdl 11.26 +0.03 10.26 12.95 591K 779K 11.12
Current. Gapped down to open on the 18 day MVA and rallied on above average volume. Testing the break out.
QCOM 12/11 Cup hdl 51.03 -0.45 50.61 58.25 11M 12M 48.68
Current. Pull back on lower, but still strong volume. Still in uptrend.
RHAT 12/18 DB hdl 17.49 +3.21 16.51 19.58 32M 5.5M 15.35
Current. Entered a partial position. Gapped up at the open and continued to make a great move up the 10 day MVA on excellent volume surge.
RWY 11/04 Cup hdl 7.98 +0.01 6.24 7.85 76K 146K 7.52
Current. Tapped 7.74 at the low and rallied showing a tight doji on higher, but still low volume.
SFY 12/08 Cup 17.14 -0.11 15.38 18.55 226K 200K 16.12
Tapped 16.75 at the low and rallied showing a doji on stronger above average volume. Still in uptrend.
SLXP 12/02 Flat 21.1 -1.2 20.29 24.55 845K 316K 20.54
Current. Thudded down to test the 18 day MVA and rallied holding the 10 day MVA on strong volume surge. Still in good shape.
STEL 12/18 Cup hdl 10.32 -0.43 10.87 13.12 189K 178K 10.11
Buy Not Hit. Thudded down to tap 10.05 at the day's low and rallied on much lower, but still above average volume. Still in uptrend.
TRPH 12/11 Test BO 6.31 +0.06 6.49 7.68 296K 1.7M 5.93
Current. Beginning to move back up the 10 day MVA on low volume after testing the break out.
TRPH 12/01 Test 50 6.31 +0.06 5.58 6.94 296K 1.7M 5.93
Current.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 39.49 -0.72 23.42 27.62 291K 603K 37.94
Current. Gapped up at the open then reversed holding the 50 day MVA on low volume. Still in good shape.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 39.49 -0.72 21.88 26 291K 603K 37.94
Current.
TTI 12/13 A Wedge 23.92 +0.26 24.35 29.25 87K 165K 22.81
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied as stock continues to move up the 10 day MVA on low volume.
ULGX 11/13 DB hdl 6.4 +0.11 6.51 8.12 26K 130K 6.05
Current. Making a low volume lateral move on the 10 day MVA.
VAR 10/28 Cup hdl 67.95 -1.43 64.5 74.25 569K 1.1M 67.82
Current. Thudded down below the 18 day MVA on higher, but average volume. Held at support.
VLGC 12/12 Test BO 3.28 -0.06 3.24 3.92 423K 1.3M 2.94
Current. Continue to make a low volume pull back testing the break out. Managed to retain most of Wednesday's great move.
VLGC 11/10 Cup 3.28 -0.06 2.14 2.82 423K 1.3M 3.15
Current.
WMS 11/21 Dbl btm 25.8 -0.82 25.83 31.22 360K 650K 25.68
Current. Thudded down to hold the 10 day MVA on higher volume. May test the 18 day MVA.
ZMH 08/09 Test BO 69.36 -0.19 51.12 59.55 2.9M 3M 66.48
Current. Narrow trading range showing a doji on strong volume surge. Doji may indicate a change in the pattern.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ARDI 11/10 Put 12.72 +0.06 11.95 10.06 526K 1M 12.62
Current. Gapped higher at the open on the simple 50 day MVA and reversed tapping 12.14 at the intraday low on low volume. Stock needs to fall from here.
JBLU 12/15 Put 26.8 -0.02 26.55 23.15 2.3M 3M 28.02
Current. Continue to make a lateral move below the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
LLTC 12/09 Put 40.63 -0.32 40.17 37 5.4M 5M 41.25
Current. Gapped up to open on the 50 day MVA and reversed holding the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Should be ready to break through the 10 day MVA to continue its downward trend.
LNCR 12/10 Put 30.5 -0.1 30.89 28.04 1.5M 2.5M 31.38
Current. Continue to move down the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
MU 12/17 Put 12.33 +0.27 11.45 9.95 13M 14M 11.92
Buy Not Hit. Continued to rally on higher volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
RTH 12/17 Put 88.45 -0.45 87.98 84.02 728K 2.5M 89.44
Buy Not Hit. Dropped below the 10 day MVA on low volume. Making a lateral move on the 10 day MVA.
SLVN 12/10 Put 27.6 -0.1 28.05 25.02 483K 484K 28.19
Current. Gapped up at the open, but reversed on above average volume. Should continue to move down from here.
SMH 12/13 Put 40.21 -0.29 40.3 37.85 15M 16M 41.02
Current. Moved down off the 50 day MVA on lower, but still strong volume. May rally to the 18 day MVA before rolling over.
SSTI 12/09 Put 11 +0.49 10.56 8.55 4.2M 2.4M 11.55
Current. Big gap up to open on the 18 day MVA, but reversed holding at the 10 day MVA on lower, but still strong volume. Needs to roll over from here.
TTC 12/15 Put 46.39 +0.18 45.15 42.51 116K 150K 47.05
Buy Not Hit. Continue to make a lateral move below the 10 day MVA on lower, but still strong volume.
TTMI 12/13 Put 15.91 +0.26 14.16 11.55 1.2M 700K 15.04
Current. Reversed sharply off of intraday high so we left it
for another session to see if it tests the 50 day MVA
for a better exit point.
VSEA 12/18 Put 41.8 -0.22 41.62 38 499K 1M 42.94
Buy Not Hit. Moved down below the 10 day MVA on lower volume. Needs to roll over from here.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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