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stock recommendation, stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: ALTI; AOT; AVC; BWC; GTI; QGENF; THER (bonus); HRLY; CHRD; MOLX; MTX
Best Plays:
1) AMXC: Excellent accumulation and showing very good action.
2) KEA: Starting the breakout, just needs some more volume.
3) TELK: Up off the 50 day MVA on solid volume.
4) AVX: Surging on some very strong trade.
5) CHL: Volume is surging on an 18 day MVA test.
6) MICU: Starting toward the breakout move.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/29/2003
AMXC (AMX Corp.--$7.68; +0.59; no options): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amxc.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. After breaking out from a 14 week cup base to start the month, AMXC has moved through a 4 week triangle making higher and higher lows on the 18 day MVA (7.06). Monday volume was back up toward average as it rallied off that level. Accumulation is solid at 5 to 1 (5 up weeks on rising volume to 1 down week on rising volume), money flow is out ahead of the price, and relative strenght is ready to breakout (another sign of a solid breakout move). Looks ready to clear resistance and make us a good move.
Volume: 71.827K Avg Volume: 89.272K
BUY POINT: $7.94 Volume=134K Target=$9.92 Stop=$7.22
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amxc.html
Play Date: 12/27/2003
KEA (Keane--$15.13; +0.49; optionable): ITS Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kea.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Starting the breakout move from its 16 week base showing solid 5 to 3 accumulation. Volume was up Monday but still below average; not the big buying associated with earnest buyers. Still a nice solid pattern that showed very good volume last week. Just looking for volume to perk up more as it continues the move.
Volume: 246.1K Avg Volume: 339.181K
BUY POINT: $15.22 Volume=500K Target=$18.25 Stop=$14.32
POSITION: KEA EC - May $15c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kea.html
Play Date: 12/29/2003
MROI (MRO Software--$14.63; +0.55; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mroi.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Nice 13 week base has formed with solid 3 to 1 accumulation. MROI has shown three solid volume bursts on up days the past week; that typically indicates the stock is ready to make the breakout move. Money flow is strong, moving up ahead of price. A breakout here puts it at a 52 week high and it has room to run.
Volume: 89.738K Avg Volume: 74.454K
BUY POINT: $14.86 Volume=112K Target=$17.95 Stop=$13.82
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mroi.html
Play Date: 12/29/2003
MXIM (Maxim Integrated--$49.94; +1.45; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mxim.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA (48.51). After peeling back from the November high near 53, MXIM found support at the 50 day MVA. After moving laterally for just over a week near that level, it found some footing Monday on rising though still quite low volume. Looks as if it is ready to start building the right side of its base or at least give a test higher. We are interested in catching a quick pop up to the prior high.
Volume: 3.129M Avg Volume: 5.631M
BUY POINT: $50.15 Volume=5M Target=$54.15 Stop=$49.21
POSITION: XIQ BJ - Feb. $50c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mxim.html
Play Date: 12/29/2003
TELK (Telik--$21.9; +0.64; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/telk.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Working on the right shoulder to a 14 week base showing strong 3 to 0 accumulation. TELK held the 50 day MVA (20.90) as it formed the right side of the pattern as volume spiked higher, a good indication that big money was moving in to pick up the stock at that key level. That made a higher low and set up the move higher. Monday TELK was bouncing on some decent volume. Money flow is strong and running ahead of price. Looking for a good volume surge as TELK moves through 22.
Volume: 392.199K Avg Volume: 466.09K
BUY POINT: $22.45 Volume=650K Target=$25.85 Stop=$21.03
POSITION: ZUL DX - Apr. $20c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/telk.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/11/2003
AVX (AVX Corp.--$16.49; +0.58; optionable): Diversified electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avx.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Excellent volume surge Monday as AVX jumped off of the 18 day MVA (15.86). Money flow is surging with the move, a very good sign. AVX broke out of a 12 week base 2 weeks back and started testing the move almost immediately. Looks ready to make the continued breakout move.
Volume: 640.7K Avg Volume: 260.045K
BUY POINT: New: $16.76 (orig. $16.25) Volume=450K Target=$19.55 Stop=$15.89
POSITION: AVX EC - May $15c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/avx.html
Play Date: 12/18/2003
BJS (BJ Services--$36.57; +0.49; optionable): Oil and gas services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bjs.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still working laterally over the 200 day MVA (35.65) as it tests the break over that level from earlier in the month. Monday volume jumped back up though it was still well below average. Money flow continues to surge, and we view this as just a matter of time before the price follows it.
Volume: 1.536M Avg Volume: 2.307M
BUY POINT: $36.74 Volume=3.6M Target=$40.55 Stop=$35.42
POSITION: BJS DG - Apr. $35c (68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bjs.html
Play Date: 12/17/2003
CHL (China Mobile--$15.31; -0.02; optionable): China wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chl.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. CHL is straining at the bit, tapping the 18 day MVA (15.03) on the Monday low and then rebounding on a big shot of above average volume. Very nice 11 week base has formed over the 50 day MVA (14.59), indicating big money was supporting it when it sold to that level in late November. Just being patient and waiting for another volume move that sticks.
Volume: 617.8K Avg Volume: 499.318K
BUY POINT: $15.48 Volume=790K Target=$18.58 Stop=$14.78
POSITION: CHL CC - Mar. $15c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/chl.html
Play Date: 12/17/2003
DTPI (Diamondcluster Intl.--$9.85; +0.09; no options): Efficiency experts to international clients
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dtpi.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Still working on completing its base, DTPI is holding over the 18 day MVA (9.46) on very low volume as it continues to tap at the breakout from its 9 week base. Solid 3 to 0 accumulation, money flow, and relative strength. Now all it needs is the breakout move.
Volume: 74.661K Avg Volume: 356.294K
BUY POINT: $10.12 Volume=577K Target=$12.22 Stop=$9.41
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dtpi.html
Play Date: 12/13/2003
MICU (Vicuron Pharma--$19; +0.25; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/micu.html
STATUS: Flat base. Edging up to the breakout point, MICU tapped the buy point early but backed off. Volume was up but still just below average. Very nice 10 week base with outstanding 4 to 0 accumulation (4 up weeks on rising volume to 0 down weeks on rising volume). Money flow continues to head higher. Ready.
Volume: 250.115K Avg Volume: 310.136K
BUY POINT: $19.12 Volume=488K Target=$22.95 Stop=$17.98
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/micu.html
Play Date: 12/20/2003
OTE (Hellenic Telecom--$6.48; +0.18; no options): Foreign telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/ote.html
STATUS: Cup with handle. A bit wild last week but settled down, held onto the 18 day MVA (6.28), and Monday was moving well on rising volume. Volume was not there, but it was a good recovery. After a 20 week base with outstanding 6 to 1 accumulation, you would expect it to hold up. Money flow is moving up ahead of price still. Looks ready to make the move, but want to see volume come back in.
Volume: 57.1K Avg Volume: 100.59K
BUY POINT: $6.52 Volume=135K Target=$8.15 Stop=$6.19
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ote.html
Play Date: 12/22/2003
USPI (United Surgical--$34.10; +0.56; optionable): Specialized health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uspi.html
STATUS: Flat base. Almost pulled the trigger Monday as USPI edged higher on rising volume. The volume was just not there yet, however, so we held off. A neat little 8 week lateral base that has held the 50 day MVA (31.55), indicating institutions using that pullback to key support to accumulate shares. Accumulation in the base is a strong 3 to 0 and money flow is moving up ahead of price.
Volume: 208.358K Avg Volume: 233.863K
BUY POINT: New: $34.25 (orig. $33.88) Volume=350K Target=$40.65 Stop=$32.32
POSITION: QPJ EZ - May $32.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/uspi.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock pick
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