stock watch, stock split

Begin Part 2 of 2

Best Plays, Part 2:
1) UNFI: Very nice pullback.
2) RE: Another nice pullback.
3) BVN: Making its move.
4) BZH: Like the handle
5) JKHY: Getting ready
6) LH: Starting to move up in its handle
7) BBY: Ready for a new high

FNM (Fannie Mae--$85.51; +0.51; optionable): Mortgage Investment.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fnm.html
STATUS: The stock has formed a cup with handle since the beginning of the year, and is currently moving in the handle, holding support over its 18 day MVA (84.51). Today the stock made a move up from that level, moving on sharply higher volume of 3.08 million (average 3.16 million). Handle high is 87.87. Strong relative strength and money flow. Target on breakout: 100.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 86.29 on increased volume. Breakout: 88 on volume of 4.6 million.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or September $80 calls to buy (FNM IP). Breakout: September $85 calls to buy (FNM IQ). Stop: 81.84 (50 day MVA at 82.40).
|mkttt|Pivot=88 cup with handle Tgt Vol=4.6M Tgt $=100 Stop=81.84

CONTINUED PLAYS:

BREAKOUTS:

APOG (Apogee Enterprises--$12.85; +0.79; no options): Materials & Construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apog.html
STATUS: After pulling back promptly from its recent breakout, the stock showed three consecutive dojis to the test the move before blasting back up today. A solid move, closing at a new high on big volume of 716,300 (average 157,000), but pulling back to close off of the intraday level of 13.25. We will see if it can sustain the move this time. Relative strength has broken out, and the stock shows high money flow and good buying. Target: $15.
BUY POINT: A continued move up from here on strong volume. Stop: Just under the 10 day MVA at 11.92.
POSITION: Stock.

A very thinly traded stock, but we like the pattern and sector:

GSOF (Group 1--$19.00; -0.30; no options): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gsof.html
STATUS: Has come back to test the breakout made last Thursday out of its tight handle to a cup pattern. The stock hit a breakout high of 20.25 that day, pulling back on lighter volume and today showing a doji over its 10 day MVA (18.74). Volume continued to dip, coming in at 3600 (average 15,900). Looking for a bounce back up off of this support. In a 16-month base and showing huge money flow. Target: 23.
BUY POINT: From here: A bounce over 19.25 on increased volume near the average. Stop: 17.90. Breakout: Over 20.25 on above average volume. Stop: Just below the 10 day MVA.
POSITION: Stock.

UNFI (United Natural Foods--$20.25; -0.44; no options): Food wholesale
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/unfi.html
STATUS: The stock continues to look good, and currently is testing support again (the 10 & 18 day MVA's, at 20.29 and 19.78, respectively, and other price support at 20). Volume has dipped way back the last couple of sessions, coming in at 62,600 (average 176,000) on today's doji. From this pattern we will look for a bounce back up toward the high of 21.80. Target: $23-24.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A bounce over 20.70 on increased volume near the average. Stop: 19.25. Breakout: Over 21.80 on above average volume. Stop: 20.27.
POSITION: Stock.

TESTS OF THE BREAKOUT: Some of these stocks are moving back on low volume to test the breakout. We often take profits on option plays when they start to pullback on the breakout move and then get back in when the stock bounces up off of the breakout point. This second move is where some of the biggest gains are made.

Continued: Watching EBAY and RCGI.

ELON (Echelon--$28.55; +1.41; optionable (EUL): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/elon.html
STATUS: Testing its breakout from the ascending wedge (that formed after the stock broke out of a cup with handle at the bottom of its 15-month base). After holding over its 10 day MVA (27.17) with tight patterns the past few sessions, the stock made a bit of a jump Monday, but volume remained below average (up to 309,700; average 351,700). Looking for some more volume on a move back up toward the breakout high of 32. Target: $35.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 29, on volume at average levels or better. Stop: 26.97 (or just below the 10 day MVA).
POSITION: Stock and/or November $25 calls to buy (EUL KE).

HB (Hillenbrand--$57.40; -0.70; optionable (HB): Diversified services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hb.html
STATUS: Pulled back again to recent support at its 10 day MVA (57.11) as the stock moves in a somewhat lateral pattern after having made a strong breakout run from an ascending wedge throughout June. It has reached several times up to the 58.50 range, but has not been able to crack through. We will see if it can break through, looking at a target on that move of 65. Money flow is huge, with good relative strength.
BUY POINT: 58.64, on continued strong volume (down to 167,100 today; average 136,000). Stop: 54.53.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $55 calls to buy (HB IK).

RE (Everest Re Group--$72.07; -0.33; optionable (RE): Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/re.html
STATUS: Pulling back after the breakout from its 6-month base when the stock reached 75.70 as a closing high. It has been an orderly, low volume pullback with the stock showing a third consecutive doji today, holding over its 18 day MVA (71.56) and the upper range of its handle. Off of these dojis we are looking for a run back up. Target: $82-85.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move over 73, on average or better volume (285,000; today down to 85,200). Stop: 67.89 (50 day MVA at 69.13). Breakout: 75.83, on volume in the range of 300,000. Stop: 70.34.
POSITION: Both buy points: Stock and/or October $70 calls to buy (RE JN).

ELN (Elan--$61.00; +1.00; optionable (ELN): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eln.html
STATUS: Still testing the breakout, holding over its former breakout buy point (from the cup with handle, at 59.23) and its 18 day MVA (60.25) and up trendline (connecting April-June closing lows, at 60.50). It made a bit of a move back up today, with volume rising but still below the average at 1.15 million (average 1.49 million). The stock closed at our aggressive buy point, which was the high for the day, so we will see if it can continue the move up toward the breakout high of 65. The stock shows good money flow. Target: $70.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 61.50 on rising volume. Stop: 56.73.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $55 calls to buy (ELN JK).

BBY (Best Buy--$66.85; +2.01; optionable (BBY): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bby.html
STATUS: Broke out of its ascending wedge last week, but after a quick, lower-volume pullback the stock bounced back up nicely today from its 10 day MVA (64.85). Volume shot up on the move, coming in at 3.26 million (average 2.33 million). Looking at a move up and over the breakout high of 68.64. Huge money flow and excellent relative strength. Target: $70.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 67.25 on continued strong volume. Stop: 62.54. New high: 68.78 on continued volume over 2.7 million. Stop: 63.97.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $60 calls to buy (BBY IL).

MOVING AVERAGE BOUNCES:

None this week.

WEDGES, PENNANTS, and FLYING PLATEAUS (AND FLAGS): These are some of our favorite patterns as the moves can be explosive. In this market, however, we need to see the move on the breakout on strong volume.

Ascending wedges:

BVN (Compania De Minas Buena--$18.83; +0.36; no options): Gold mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bvn.html
STATUS: Moving in an ascending wedge for the past 8 weeks as it has moved off of its bottom, formed a cup with handle, and now is ready to break out of its wedge pattern. This is one of our favorite base-on-base patterns. Monday it continued its move up off of the 10 day MVA (18.15), hitting volume closer to breakout levels (158,700 today; average 115,200) as the stock closed just under the breakout price. Money flow is outstanding and relative strength has broken out ahead of this move. Target: 22.75.
BUY POINT: 18.97 on volume of 175,000. Stop: 17.65
POSITION: Stock; no option chain.

CRL (Charles River Labs--$31.16; -0.74; no options): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crl.html
STATUS: The stock is in an ascending wedge pattern, and after trying a breakout move last week on strong volume, it dropped back again. Today it gapped down and found support over its 50 day MVA (30.12), pushing back up slightly as volume swelled (289,100; average 195,000). If it cannot stop the drop here it is in danger of ruining the strong pattern of making higher lows. We will see if it can push back up off of support, with the 10 day MVA ahead at 32.14. For a move up, look for a break over 35 on rising volume. Target: $42.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 35.13, on volume of 265,000 or better. Stop: 32.67.
POSITION: Stock.

SPF (Standard Pacific--$23.15; -0.11; optionable): Residential construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spf.html
STATUS: After hitting an all-time high in February at 33, SPF split 'the hard way,' dropping to 16 before rebounding. It is working on a cup base, and has formed an ascending wedge over the past two months as it cleared its moving averages. The last two sessions it has pulled back to its 10 day MVA (23.09), tapping its 18 day at its low of 22.64 today as volume remained very low (104,700; average 311,700). Money flow is excellent and we are looking for a nice pop on the move higher. Ascending wedges tend to give sharp moves higher that then fizzle. We will take our 20% and bank it if it starts to slow down on the move. Target: 29
BUY POINT: 24.20 on volume of 350,000 shares or better. Stop: 22.50
POSTION: Stock and/or September $20 calls to buy (SPF ID).

Pennant:

Continued: Watching RDK; it broke support but on low volume.

SLC (Sun Life--$23.60; +0.40; optionable (SLC): Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slc.html
STATUS: Tried last week to break from its ascending wedge pattern (that formed after a cup with handle breakout) but pulled back on lower, below average volume to its 18 day MVA (23.19). It held that support, bouncing up today but still on low volume (104,700; average 182,600). We will see it can generate some more volume on a move toward the breakout. Initial target: $29-30.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 24.48, on volume in the range of 250,000. Stop: 22.77. A buy on breakout up to 25.70.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $20 calls to buy (SLC HD).

BASING/TRADING RANGES:

Continued: Watching IVX for a strong move up from 36. Looking for a test of support from GSOF. WPI tested the 50 day MVA Friday so we are watching it for a move back up in its handle.

ORI (Old Republic--$28.58; -0.43; optionable (ORI): Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/ori.html
STATUS: Still in the flat base pattern that has formed the floor of a 6-month base (prior high 32). After a nice move up Friday the stock could not sustain the momentum, pulling back to close just above its 50 day MVA (28.51). There has been steady resistance at the 29 range, so we will see if it can sustain a move. It has been making higher lows as it progresses, so if it can hold here it will continue that bullish action. Still has other overhead supply, up to the pattern's high at 29.90. Good money flow and buying. Initial target: Previous basing high at 32.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 30, on minimum breakout volume of 471,000, or better (today down to 206,700; average 358,000). Stop: 27.93.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $25 calls to buy (ORI JE; no open interest).

BZH (Beazer Homes--$64.50; +0.52; no options): Materials & Construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bzh.html
STATUS: Has pulled back to its 10 day MVA (63.74) where it showed a doji today. The stock tried a breakout last week, but could not make it past 68. The handle to its little double bottom was one that wedged up slightly, which is not the best shape for a handle (we like to see a slightly downward slope on lower volume). We will see if it can hold this support and bounce up off of this doji. Super money flow and good buying, too. Target: $76-79.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 66 on above average volume (185,000; today up to 162,700). Stop: 61.38. Breakout: 68.13, on above average volume.
POSITION: Stock.

PMI (Pmi Group--$68.70; -0.95; optionable (PMI): Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pmi.html
STATUS: PMI was looking better in its handle, dipping back gradually on decreasing volume, but today it took a more significant drop with sharply higher volume of 293,900 (average 280,000). It has been a while since this stock has come back to test the 50 day, and we will see if it can hold after this higher-volume selling. If it can hold and regroup it can make another run toward the breakout. Target: $86-90.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 71, on continued strong volume. Stop: 66.03. Breakout: 74.63, on volume of 420,000 or better. Stop: 68.66.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $70 calls to buy (PMI IN).

ROIAK (Radio One--$20.55; -0.25; no options): Radio Broadcasting
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/roiak.html
STATUS: ROIAK tried to make a move today, gapping higher to 21, but it then turned and fell back, never hitting our buy point. Volume remained low (288,900; average is 550,000) as the stock closed right above its 10 day MVA. It looked more promising after Friday's move, but it is still in very good shape in this double bottom with handle pattern. Money flow and relative strength are looking good still. We want to see the breakout on strong volume. Target: 26
BUY POINT: 21.12 on volume of 825,000. Stop: 19.65.
POSITION: Stock; no option chain.

SRZ (Sunrise Assisted Living--$27.30; +0.36; optionable): Long-term health care
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/srz.html
STATUS: SRZ is in a 7 month cup with handle base and appears to be forming the handle right now on extremely low volume (157,700; average is 226,000). Today it tapped the 10 day MVA on its low (26.60) and started up on higher volume. Relative strength is ready to breakout and price/volume action is good. Looking for the breakout over 28. Target: 34
BUY POINT: 28.02 on volume of 340,000. Stop: 26
POSITION: Stock and/or October 22.50 calls to buy (SRZ JX).

A thinly traded stock in a good-looking sector:

CPJ (Chateau Communities--$31.35; +0.08; no options): REIT
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cpj.html
STATUS: Remains in the 6-month flat base that formed after the stock broke out of a similar base last fall. The stock gave us the test of the 10 day MVA (31.17) we were looking for, tapping that level at its low Monday but pulling back up to close with a perfect doji. The stock is still unable to break through $31.40, a level that has shown significant resistance thus far. With this move, we will watch for another test back toward the 10 day, perhaps even the 18 day MVA (31.06; or lower, with the 50 day at 30.88). The stock continues to show strong money flow and buying, and we continue to look for a breakout. The April high is 32.18, but an aggressive position can be entered on a strong move over the recent high of 31.75. Target: $36.
BUY POINT: 31.88, on volume of 68,000 or better (average 49,700; today up to 35,000). Stop: 29.33 (just under the 200 day MVA, 29.70).
POSITION: Stock.

JKHY (Jack Henry--$30.29; -0.11; optionable (JKQ): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jkhy.html
STATUS: The stock formed an ascending wedge in the upper right side of its 6-month cup base, and tried a breakout last week (reaching 31.50) but had low volume and has come back to test the move, pulling back for the third consecutive session on steadily decreasing volume (234,800, average is 445,000). Once again the stock held support at its 10 day MVA (30.22). In this handle-type consolidation, we will see if JKHY holds here for a move back up with stronger volume over the current handle high at 31.50. Target: $38-40. Prior high in the base is 33.13.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 31.63, on volume of 690,000 or better. Stop: 29.42 (just below the 18 day MVA, 29.79).
POSITION: Stock and/or September $27.50 calls to buy (JKQ IY).

BVF (Biovail--$43.82; +0.16; optionable): Drug delivery.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bvf.html
STATUS: Remains in the handle to its 4-month cup base. Although the 10 day MVA (43.45) continues to provide support, today BVF briefly touched down below its 18 day MVA at its low of 42.70 before moving back up to close with a loose doji on above average volume of 744,600, (average is 575,000). With the doji on high volume over support we will look for a move up, and a breakout above the handle high of $45.10. Money flow and relative strength remain constant. Target: $50-52.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 45.23, on volume of 880,000 or more. Stop: 41.61 (50 day MVA, 40.95).
POSITION: Stock and/or October $40 calls to buy (BVF JH).

LH (Laboratory Cp Am Hldgs--$78.90; +1.40; optionable (LH): Health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lh.html
STATUS: Remains in it handle to a 6-month cup base. Volume was slightly above average today (504,600, average is 475,000), as the stock gapped down but moved back up to close above its 10 & 18 day MVA's (77.77 & 77.28, respectively). We have seen LH hover around these levels since the second week in June, and we are still looking for a strong breakout move, over the previous handle high of 82.63. Money flow and relative strength remain strong. Target on a breakout: $91-95.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over the recent highs at 81, with increased volume near the average. Breakout: 82.63, on volume of 710,000 or more. Stop: 76.02.
POSITION: Both buy points: Stock and/or August $75 calls to buy (LH HO).

EQR (Equity Resident--$55.45; -1.04; optionable (EQR): REIT
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eqr.html
STATUS: After falling back to test the 18 day MVA (56.16) on Friday on low volume, EQR gapped below that level today on sharply higher, above average volume of 394,100 (average is 328,000). The move takes it out of its handle, and we may see a test of the 50 day MVA (54.78) from here. That is not the pattern we were looking at. It needs to hold that level to have any chance of preserving the pattern. Handle high is 57.50.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: After showing that it can hold the 55 range, a move back over the 10 day MVA (56.40) on continued strong volume. Breakout: 57.63, on volume of 492,000 or more. Stop: 53.60.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or October $50 calls to buy (EQR JJ). Breakout: Stock and/or October $55 calls to buy (EQR JK).

ASN (Archstone Comm--$25.24; -0.34; no options): REIT
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asn.html
STATUS: REITS had a hard time today, and ASN dropped hard in its handle. Not good. In the handle of its 6-month cup base (part of a larger ranging pattern). The stock retreated in its handle to close back below its 50 day MVA (25.27), with volume spiking up to above average levels on the move (535,000; average 475,000). The stock tested this support recently and responded with a strong bounce, but could not hold a move over its 10 day MVA (25.56). We will see if ASN can make a similar recovery, but look for a breakout for positions. Target: $30-31.
BUY POINT: 26.13, on volume of 712,000 or better. Stop: 24.30 (just under the 200 day MVA, 24.64).
POSITION: Stock.

CNA (Cna Financial--$39.48; +0.48; optionable (CNA): Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cna.html
STATUS: Remains in the lengthy handle to the 11-month base. The stock tapped support at 39 at its low (the 50 day MVA is at 38.53) before moving up to close back over its 10 day MVA (39.28). Volume has settled back the last few sessions (although it has been rather volatile in the handle), coming in at 87,200 today (average 145,000). We are looking for a breakout for positions. Target: $44-46.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 40.37, on volume of 217,000 or better. Stop: 37.54. A buy on the breakout up to 42.39.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $35 calls to buy (CNA HG; low open interests).

Puts: We are looking for a reflex bounce before we get too excited about chasing some puts, but here are some that look ready even now.

ADVS (Advent Software--$51.12; -3.78; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/advs.html
STATUS: So promising, but a real meltdown underway. Today ADVS crossed below its 200 day MVA; when stocks do that, institutions tend to unload them. Thus, breaking below the 200 day MVA usually means further selling. We will watch for a test of the 200 day MVA (53.44), and if it continues to sell, we could see it can fall to 45. Volume was 686,400; average is 562,000.
BUY POINT: On further selling below 50 on continued rising volume.
POSITION: August $55 puts to buy (UIV TK).

CHV (Chevron--$90.04; -0.96; optionable): Oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chv.html
STATUS: CHV continued to fall as expected on continued above average volume (2.54 million; average is 2.3 million). The stock pulled up to close well off of its low (89.26) as it heads toward the 200 day MVA at 87.43. We have to watch that, but still feel the stock will seek a level closer to the 200 day MVA before it bounces. That gives us another point and one half on this move. we are not going to take new positions right now, but ride the ones we have. If it breaks the 200 day MVA, we will look at new positions then.
BUY POINT: No new ones for now. Looking for a break below the 200 day MVA before new positions.

IGT (International Game Technology--$59.12; -0.08; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
STATUS: Okay; IGT is making the move back up toward the 50 day MVA (60.21) as expected, but volume was not light. It was huge, coming in at 2.43 million (average is 776,200). This has been one of the strong sectors, so we will watch what it does at the 50 day MVA. If it fails and starts to sell, that is our put play for a move down to 52.50.
BUY POINT: On a failed attempt to break over 60.21.
POSITION: August $70 puts to buy (IGT TM).

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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