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trade stock, stock watch
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: ALTI; AOT; AVX; CKP CORV; ENMC; IMOS; IPXL, KEA; NOV; OMCL; ORBK; OTE; PTNR; VNWK
Best Plays:
1) NUFO: Rallying on strong trade.
2) ARXX: Ready to breakout from the flat base on strong trade.
3) HELX: Starting to run for the breakout.
4) ITXC: Making the breakout on strong trade.
5) IPXL: Huge volume as it makes the breakout.
6) ORBK: Huge volume as it starts the breakout.
7) MSPD: Still a great pattern and ready for the next wave.
8) RTH: Still struggling.
NEW PLAYS: Many plays in this section are stocks that we dropped but kept an eye on. When we saw the move we issued alerts. The ones that are still a buy and in good position to move into we have put back on the report.
Upside:
Play Date: 01/05/2004
ALTR (Altera--$23.47; +0.83; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/altr.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA (22.38). We kept an eye on ALTR, and it managed to hold the 50 day MVA in a two week lateral move on low volume. Monday it surged ahead on strong trade and we issued the alert. Solid action and can still be entered if the chips continue the move Tuesday.
Volume: 9.844M Avg Volume: 7.758M
BUY POINT: $23.48 Volume=10M Target=$26.95 Stop=$22.72
POSITION: LTQ CS - Mar. $22.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/altr.html
Play Date: 01/05/2004
ARXX (Aeroflex--$12.87; +1.02; optionable): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arxx.html
STATUS: Flat base. Volume shot higher Monday as ARXX jumped off the 50 day MVA (11.52), moving toward the breakout in its 7 week base. Accumulation is a solid 3 to 1 (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume). Money flow is excellent, surging up ahead of price even as ARXX starts the breakout move. Ready to make the breakout, and we are ready to pick it up as it does.
Volume: 1.887M Avg Volume: 563.181K
BUY POINT: $13.18 Volume=700K Target=$15.82 Stop=$12.12
POSITION: ARX FV - June $12.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/arxx.html
Play Date: 01/04/2004
ASKJ (Ask Jeeves--$20.88; +2.18; optionable): Internet information provider
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/askj.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA (18.70). After a 14 week base, ASKJ jumped off of the 50 day MVA Monday on a strong volume surge. It is still in the base, but the move was strong and we spotted it while scanning the market Monday. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation even at this point in the base, a good indication. Looking for a test of 20.50 and a turn back up for new positions.
Volume: 3.219M Avg Volume: 1.992M
BUY POINT: $20.68 Volume=3.7M Target=$24.95 Stop=$19.23
POSITION: AUK CD - Mar. $20c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/askj.html
Play Date: 01/05/2004
CALP (Caliper Technologies--$7.24; +0.48; no options): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/calp.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. CALP has formed a short 7 week pattern sporting solid 3 to 0 accumulation - - short but sweet. Money flow is excellent, surging up ahead of price. Monday CALP was moving with the market, gapping higher and running on the strongest volume in 2 months. A good break higher from the pattern, and we are looking for positions on a continued strong move.
Volume: 388.656K Avg Volume: 116.863K
BUY POINT: $7.33 Volume=175K Target=$8.75 Stop=$6.74
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/calp.html
Play Date: 01/05/2004
HELX (Helix Technology--$21.69; +1.15; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/helx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. HELX has formed a short 5 week cup w/handle pattern that is part of a much larger 20 month cup with handle base. The most recent base formed over the 50 day MVA (19.76), an indication that institutions were stepping in to accumulate it at that point. It formed a short handle the past week that held the 18 day MVA (20.44) and then Monday it was jumping on some solid, average trade. Accumulation in the short pattern is an excellent 4 to 0. Strong action, and we just want to see some more volume as it continues the move and makes the breakout.
Volume: 223.571K Avg Volume: 200K
BUY POINT: $21.88 Volume=300K Target=$26.25 Stop=$20.35
POSITION: HHQ DD - Apr. $20c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/helx.html
Play Date: 01/05/2004
IPXL (Impax Labs--$15.72; +1.12; optionable): Generic drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ipxl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. We have kept an eye on IPXL as it worked to complete its base, moving laterally the past week, holding over the 18 day MVA (14.36) on the lows as volume remained very low and below average. That set up the breakout, and Monday it shot higher on a huge volume surge and we issued a buy alert. It backed off the high (16.69), but held most of the gain and looks super. Money flow is surging as well. Solid 6 to 3 accumulation has set up the move. Looking for a continued move up on solid trade to enter.
Volume: 1.426M Avg Volume: 376.09K
BUY POINT: New: $15.88 (orig. $15.68) Volume=650K Target=$18.65 Stop=$14.46
POSITION: UPR EC - May $15c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ipxl.html
Play Date: 01/05/2004
ITXC (ITXC Corp.--$5; +0.74; no options): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itxc.html
STATUS: Flat base. Another stock we kept an eye on , and Monday ITXC was making the volume breakout. Solid move as it closed right at the session high. We issued the alert when we saw the move, and it still looks solid here. Outstanding 7 to 2 accumulation in the base along with surging money flow and a relative strength breakout.
Volume: 1.654M Avg Volume: 514.09K
BUY POINT: New: 5.06 (orig. $4.89) Volume=706K Target=$6.25 Stop=$4.45
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/itxc.html
Play Date: 01/05/2004
NUFO (New Focus--$5.28; +0.21; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nufo.html
STATUS: Double bottom. NUFO is making the breakout move from its 15 week double bottom. These patterns without handles breakout on a move over the 'hump' in the middle of the pattern. That point is 5.02; NUFO crossed that point Monday on strong trade. Volume has swelled the past threes sessions to above average. Accumulation is positive at 2 to 1 and money flow is shooting higher. Ready to move in here on a further volume move. it may form something of a handle near 5.40, but if we see the volume we are willing to move in.
Volume: 931.49K Avg Volume: 397.227K
BUY POINT: $5.38 Volume=596K Target=$6.55 Stop=$5
POSITION: DBE DA - Apr. $5c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nufo.html
Play Date: 01/05/2004
ORBK (Orbotech--$25.6; +1.73; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orbk.html
STATUS: Flat base. Another stock we kept an eye on, particularly after that heavy volume last Friday. Monday that volume carried it up to the breakout, surging on another big day of trading. Accumulation is excellent at 4 to 1 to go along with strong money flow. Nice breakout and still a buy.
Volume: 599.487K Avg Volume: 130.545K
BUY POINT: New: $25.72 (orig. $25.16) Volume=198K Target=$30.25 Stop=$23.42
POSITION: OKQ DX - Apr. $22.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/orbk.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 12/20/2003
ENMC (Encore Medical--$8.68; +0.49; no options): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/enmc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. ENMC Started the move out of the lateral consolidation over the 10 day MVA (8.07) that was the breakout test. Volume was up and above average on the move as relative strength broke out and money flow led the way higher. Still a buy on this move that continues the breakout from its 3.5 month base sporting 5 to 2 accumulation.
Volume: 542.498K Avg Volume: 273.227K
BUY POINT: New: $8.88 (orig. $8.62, $8.20) Volume=417K Target=$9.88 Stop=$7.88
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/enmc.html
Play Date: 12/15/2003
MSPD (Mindspeed Technologies--$6.99; +0.1; no options): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mspd.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Did not make the break with the rest of the market Monday as volume remained low; one of the 'wave' of stocks that can still breakout. Very nice 8 week base showing excellent 4 to 0 accumulation. Just waiting for a breakotu move.
Volume: 296.964K Avg Volume: 557.772K
BUY POINT: $7.15 Volume=1.1M Target=$8.65 Stop=$6.65
POSITION: - Apr. $7.50c (46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mspd.html
Play Date: 12/29/2003
MXIM (Maxim Integrated--$50.28; +0.96; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mxim.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. The chips were up, but many are still just coming off the bottom of their bases. That is MXIM's case as it works through its 7 week pattern. Monday volume was up as it continued the move off the 50 day (48.68) It is set up to make the move, we just want to see some more strong trade.
Volume: 5.217M Avg Volume: 5.427M
BUY POINT: $50.15 Volume=5M Target=$54.15 Stop=$49.21
POSITION: XIQ BJ - Feb. $50c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mxim.html
Play Date: 01/03/2004
SKIL (Skillsoft--$8.34; -0.04; optionable): Multimedia and graphics software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/skil.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. After a big volume spike Friday that tried to break SKIL out, SKIL ran in place Monday on lower though still above average volume. Still looks good in its 11 week base showing outstanding 5 to 0 accumulation. Strong money flow is up and leading the stock, and we are just waiting for the price to follow.
Volume: 567.071K Avg Volume: 354.136K
BUY POINT: $8.85 Volume=518K Target=$10.72 Stop=$8.18
POSITION: QAG EU - May $7.50c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/skil.html
Downside: TARO fell like a stone.
Play Date: 01/03/2004
CBRL (CBRL Group--$38.11; +0.34; optionable): Restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbrl.html
STATUS: Put. Bounced up to the 10 day MVA on the high (38.47) but fell back to lose most of the gain. CBRL crashed through the 50 day MVA (39.02) in mid-December after its quick heand and shoulders formation. It rallied up to test that level on the intraday highs last week but could not make the break back over that key level. Friday it started to fall, breaking below the recent closing lows. Monday could have been a last-gasp attempt. Want to see it turn over again on continued strong trade.
Volume: 428.911K Avg Volume: 501.045K
BUY POINT: $37.65 Volume=525K Target=$35.45 Stop=$38.62
POSITION: CBQ OH - Mar. $40p (-71 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cbrl.html
Play Date: 12/17/2003
RTH (Retail Holders Trust--$88.91; +0.32; optionable): Retail holders trust
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rth.html
STATUS: Put. After rolling over Friday following its gap up, RTH continued the fall Monday. It hit 87.84 on the low but then rallied to actually post a gain. Still below the 18 day MVA (89.29). Will watch and see if it starts to roll down again on continued strong trade. It still has broken down from its head and shoulders pattern that formed from October to November.
Volume: 1.337M Avg Volume: 872.211K
BUY POINT: $88.35 Volume=2.5M Target=$85.02 Stop=$89.44
POSITION: RTH NR - Feb. $90p (-62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rth.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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