stock watch, stock split

Begin Part 4 of 4

PRE-SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS: With these stocks we keep an eye out, waiting for the start of a pre-split run.

ING (Ing Groep--$64.95; -1.25; optionable): Life Insurance. Splits 2:1 effective July 13.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ing.html
STATUS: ING could not hold the Monday move up over its 10 day MVA (65.59), today gapping down to close below that level and its 50 day (65.39, with the 18 day right at that level) on increased volume of 143,300 (average is 101,000). The stock has just 2 days before the split, so we will watch for a quick run up on strong volume, but today was disappointing, and we may not get the move.
PLAY: Aggressive: A move back over today's high of $65.71, with stock and/or August $60 calls to buy (but very low open interest).

RAVN (Raven Ind--$26.70; -0.30; no options): Textile Manufacturing. Splits 3:2 effective July 16. Thinly traded, but we had good success with these this year.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/ravn.html
STATUS: RAVN has shown us a series of near and perfect dojis and slight moves for nearly three weeks as its moved along a tight lateral range. Today the stock dipped slightly down, tapping the 18 day MVA (26.62) before rising to close just below its 10 day MVA on continuing extremely light volume of 1,400 (average is 5,600). We will continue to watch for a pre-split run, although we are concerned about the lack of volume. High is 28.
PLAY: On a move over $27.25 on average or better volume, stock.

TARO (Taro Pharmaceutical--$81.16; -0.60; optionable: Drugs. Splits 2:1 July 27.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/taro.html
STATUS: Broke out from a cup with handle last October and has increased more than fourfold since. In late June, the stock reached a high of 90.50, but has pulled back and may be forming a handle along its 10 & 18 day MVA's (82.35 and 80.13, respectively). Today, it gapped open only to reverse itself and close below the 10 day, albeit on below average volume (316,500, average is 426,000). The stock may be resting a bit before making another pre-split run. We will watch for a hold of this support and another strong move up on above average volume.
PLAY: Aggressive: Back over 84 on increased volume near the average, with stock and/or August $80 calls to buy (QTT HP).

BMET (Biomet--$43.47; -0.73; optionable): Medical equipment. Got the announcement, as forecast! Splits 3:2 on or about August 6.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmet.html
STATUS: BMET has given us some great plays going toward the forecast, but has suffered the last few sessions, selling back, giving up support and moving out of a clear pattern. After Friday's crash through the 50 day MVA (44.55), the stock has twice made attempts to climb back over that level, but retreated for a doji Monday and dropped back more today after gapping over the 50 day to open. Volume remained above average today at 1.82 million (average 1.56 million). Not good signs, but after such a solid move going into the announcement there is often a pullback, and in such instances we look for the stock to find near support and then look for a pre-split move. There is possible support from former pattern highs at 42, with the 200 day MVA at 38.83. We do not have a lot of room for a put play, so we will watch for a pattern to develop as the stock approaches the split date.

CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.

ASFC (Astoria Financial--$58.45; +0.22; optionable): Savings and Loan.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asfc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split its stock in 1996 with the split at a price of $56. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-16-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: This stock has been wildly erratic of late, and is yet again trying to get past recent highs as 58.50. It has formed a second saucer pattern (broke from the first one in April, although it fell back to form the current pattern), and today reached up to 58.60 today and got a blast of volume behind it (638,300; average 361,400). However, we have seen these moves before out of ASFC and they have been followed by abrupt drops. Consequently, on any move out of the range we will carefully use stops to protect positions. Target: 65.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 58.73 on increased volume. Stop: 54.50.
POSITION: October $55 calls to buy (AQR JK).

CECO (Career Education--$61.13; +1.87; no options):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-1-00 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $57. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-11-01 at 1:00 pm CDT at which time additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split without increasing authorized shares.
STATUS: The stock has been climbing along its short-term MVA's (10 & 18 day at 58.81 and 57.86, respectively) for the past month, making a steeper trend after having been using its 50 day for support. Today it made big move up, hitting 63.45 on sharply higher volume (390,200; average 215,000), but pulled way back to close, indicating a continued pullback. We will see if the drop holds the 18 day, but we will be prepared for the stock to have to come back and test the 50 day.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: If it can hold the 18 day, a run back over 60 on continued strong volume. Stop: 53.81.
POSITION: Stock only.

CHBS (Christopher & Banks--$26.04; +0.44; optionable): No announcement this week.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chbs.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 stock split on 1-17-01 at a price of $34. Before that CHBS also had 3:2 splits in July of 2000 at $35 and in December 1999 at $26.
STATUS: Tanked through its 200 day MVA (28.64) Friday and although it has caught itself with a couple of dojis (today on high volume of 1.17 million; average 563,700), the stock has not been able to mount much of a rebound. It hit 26.93 today before retreating back to close. There is support here in the 25 range from February-April lows, but we can potentially look at new positions if it can show a bounce back up to test the 200 day that fails.
BUY POINT: After a test back up to the 28 range, selling back down on continued strong volume, watching the 24-25 range for the next level of support.
POSITION: August $35 puts to buy (URH TG).

KMP (Kinder Morgan--$71.16; -0.33):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmp.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that KMP has ever split its stock. KMP is a master limited partnership and therefore does not have annual shareholder meetings.
STATUS: KMP made a decent move up from its recent range at the 50 day MVA (69.13), but has pulled back slightly the last couple of sessions as it hit its May-June consolidation levels. The stock reached back to test near its 10 day MVA (70.55) at its low today but managed to close with a loose doji. Not too bad, but it has not generated any volume on the moves, and the sector is struggling. If it can hold here we will see if it can mount a move. Relative strength has broken out.
BUY POINT: After a test of the 10 day, a move back over 72 on above average volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $70 calls (KMP FN).

MIKE (Michaels Stores--$37.91; -0.49; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mike.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that MIKE has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-13-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Has become a bit volatile in the handle (to a cup pattern), which is not what we like to see. Last Friday it retreated back to its 50 day MVA (37.48), and is holding there, today pulling back slightly on low volume (85,000; average 208,400). It took a solid bounce from the 50 day in late June, attempting a breakout, but is now holding on after that failure, and we will see if it can stay at support, settle down and try again.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 40 on above average volume. Handle high: 42.06.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $35 calls to buy (IKQ IG).

MMM (Minnesota Mining--$111.65; -3.20):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mmm.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 3-15-94 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $102. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-8-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized.
STATUS: MMM made the little move back up to its 10 day MVA (115.21), and dutifully fell back again today as volume remained above the average (1.92 million; average 1.89 million). It has been struggling in a downtrend since falling from a handle and failed breakout move, riding down under the 10 day. A bit tight for new plays now, with the 200 day below at 108.67.

POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:

BAX (Baxter International--$48.54; -0.63; optionable): Health Services. Split 2:1 effective 5-30-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bax.html
STATUS: After crashing through its 50 day MVA (49.22), BAX made a relief bounce as expected, and today dropped back from that level. Volume dipped back but was still strong on the selling, coming in at 2.27 million (average 1.78 million). For new plays from here we will look for a drop back through the recent lows at 47.88. Targeting the 200 day MVA (44.62), in the range of its April consolidation, as an exit point.
PLAY: On a move below 47.88 on increased volume, August $52.50 puts to buy (BAX TX).

DGX (Quest Diagnostics--$69.40; -2.55; optionable): Health services. Split 2:1 June 1.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgx.html
STATUS: The stock is peeling back, today gapping below the 10 day MVA (71.26) and closing back below the support of its 18 day (69.89). Volume was above the average on the selling, and DGX, which has made a very strong run both pre- and post-split, could be ready to test its 50 day MVA (64.66). However, it has support from a recent breakout point in the 68 range, so we will see if that holds. In any event, the stock might need some consolidation time before moving up again. Recent high was 75.75.
PLAY: Aggressive: After holding the 68 level, a move back over the 10 day MVA on continued strong volume (down to 484,100 today; average 450,000), with stock and/or August $65 calls to buy (DGX HM). Stop: 66.50.

ESRX (Express Scripts--$50.90; +0.09; optionable): Split 2:1 June 25.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
STATUS: ESRX is moving in a handle to large cup pattern (dating back to the beginning of 2001), and is testing its 50 day MVA (49.82). It was very strong going into the split, and post-split weakness is certainly not uncommon. The stock has now shown three consecutive dojis over the 50 day, with a bit of volume thrown behind it today (1.23 million; average 620,000). We will see if that signals that it is ready to move. The handle high is an intraday spike at 58, but we are looking at a break over the prior intraday high of 55.82 for a breakout.
PLAY: Aggressive: A move over 52 (10 day MVA at 51.88) on continued strong volume, with stock and/or August or November $50 calls to buy (XTQ HJ or XTQ KJ).

FIC (Fair Isaac--$63.42; -0.09; optionable): Business services. Split 3:2 effective June 5.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fic.html
STATUS: FIC has been an amazing performer. After breaking out yet again last Thursday, hitting a new high at 65, the stock has pulled laterally with decreasing volume (78,000 today; average 105,300). Still too extended for us to chase, but we will carefully monitor existing positions and keep stops in place, perhaps just below the 10 day MVA (61.27), under the recent consolidation range. Still shows strong money flow and buying, with relative strength breaking out.
PLAY: Aggressive: A move up after a test back toward 60, with stock and/or October $55 calls to buy (FIC JK - very low open interest as FIC just became optionable).

JNJ (Johnson&Johnson--$52.50; +0.38; optionable): Drugs. Split 2:1 June 12.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnj.html
STATUS: Made a fine run post-split off of a reverse head-and-shoulders (formed from the beginning of the year), but after hitting 54.20 the stock came back and has bounced along its 50 day MVA (50.25). It has made a decent run up the last two sessions, moving on good volume (down slightly to 8.46 million; average 5.3 million), closing just under its up trendline connecting March and May closing lows. Relative strength has broken out, and it shows good money flow. We will see if it can continue the momentum.
PLAY: Aggressive momentum: A move over 52.85 on increased volume, with stock and/or October $50 calls to buy (JNJ JJ). Stop: 49.15.

MTON (Metro One--$36.38; -1.67; optionable): Telecom. Splits 3:2 effective July 2.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mton.html
STATUS: MTON has dipped back since the split, but has found very strong support each time it tapped back to the 50 day MVA. A good run into the split, and a quick drop afterward, and now we are dropping.

WFMI (Whole Foods--$27.36; -0.83; optionable): Grocery Stores. Split 2:1 June 5.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
STATUS: WFMI has been moving in a long handle to a cup pattern, and has struggled with making - and failing - several attempts to break through the $28.40 level on its way back to the handle high of $29.40. Today the stock gave up the struggle, gapping down then closing below the 18 day MVA (59), on sharply increased volume (789,800, average is 446,800). It is still well within in its handle range, and appears to have support at its 50 day MVA (53.31), and just below that at the bottom of the handle range (26). As it has done in the past, the stock may tap either support before moving back up in another breakout attempt.
PLAY: Aggressive: Over the recent consolidation high of 28.50 on continued strong volume. Stop: 26.50. Breakout: 29.55 on minimum volume of 720,000, with stock and/or August $27.50 calls to buy (FMQ HY). Stop: 27.50.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

stock watch
stock split