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Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: NANX; NOV; ONNN; OTEX; RHAT; SYMM
Plays from the Thursday night report:
EONC: Volume eased off but still solid and ready to move.
PHTN: Looked solid, racing higher, but then fell back on the close. Still a solid pattern.
TUTR: Could not continue the move with the Friday market pullback.
New Plays:
Play Date: 01/10/2004
FARO (Faro Technologies--$30.09; -0.2; optionable): 3D measurement systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/faro.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Coming back to test the breakout from an 8 week double bottom pattern sporting outstanding 5 to 1 accumulation. It surged to 32.14 on the breakout and Friday tested the 10 day MVA (28.22) on the intraday low and rebounded on strong volume. That shows that buyers stepped in and drove the stock back up; bullish action. It may test the 10 day MVA and even the 18 day MVA (26.81) early this week, but on another volume move higher we are looking to step in.
Volume: 1.341M Avg Volume: 755.956K
BUY POINT: $31.45 Volume=1.1M Target=$38 Stop=$29.25
POSITION: QEJ CF - Mar. $30c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/faro.html
Play Date: 01/10/2004
MERQ (Mercury Interactive--$50.19; -0.14; optionable): Technical software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/merq.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Always in the action, MERQ is easing back to the 18 day MVA (48.97) as it forms a handle to its 15 week base. Accumulation is excellent at 5 to 1. Good base, good pullback. Volume was jumping Monday and Friday as the stock rallied, Friday off of the 18 day MVA. That is the price/volume action you want to see. Now we wait for MERQ to make the breakout over the high in the handle, clearing the resistance and showing us that all of the weaker holders have left the stock.
Volume: 3.711M Avg Volume: 2.854M
BUY POINT: $51.62 Volume=4.3M Target=$59.45 Stop=$48.88
POSITION: RQB GJ - July $50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/merq.html
Play Date: 01/10/2004
SNWL (Sonicwall--$8.37; +0.65; optionable): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snwl.html
STATUS: Flat base. After a solid run from April to October, SNWL has slipped into the current 11 week base, holding roughly over the 50 day MVA (7.70) as it works laterally. Volume has been very good, dropping off once the base started to mostly below average levels and then swelling sharply the last week as SNWL started to show signs it was ready to make a breakout move. Accumulation in the base is a solid 3 to 1. Money flow is surging as well. Friday SNWL jumped off the 50 day MVA (7.70) on once again surging volume. It cleared the highs in the base over 8.50, but could not hold that level. We want to see it do that again to enter positions.
Volume: 2.181M Avg Volume: 748.766K
BUY POINT: $8.54 Volume=1.1M Target=$10.25 Stop=$7.92
POSITION: UWL FU - June $7.50c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/snwl.html
Play Date: 01/10/2004
TQNT (Triquent Semiconductor--$8.7; +0.38; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tqnt.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. TQNT has just formed its first base after the October breakout from an 11 month cup with handle that formed after the initial run off of the 2002 low. After rallying to 8.50, it stalled in early November 2003 and formed the current 8 week base. Accumulation in the base is positive at 2 to 1 (2 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume); all it takes is positive accumulation to set the foundation for the breakout. It also formed the base right at the 50 day MVA (7.42), a sign of strength as buyers stepped in to hold it up at that point. Money flow is leading higher ahead of price as volume surged Friday along with the price as TQNT started its breakout. Looking to step in as it continues the move.
Volume: 5.43M Avg Volume: 2.433M
BUY POINT: $8.84 Volume=3.6M Target=$10.62 Stop=$8.22
POSITION: TQN EU - May $7.50c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tqnt.html
Pullbacks that look ready for this week: ARXX; CTRA; MIPS; SFY; TUTS
Others ready to to: ERES; ILXO; ONNN; SINA
CONTINUING PLAY LIST:
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http://investmenthouse.com/ihalerts/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3 )
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACO 12/29 Cup hdl 21.85 +0.01 19.99 23.85 218K 500K 21.11
Current. Gapped down to open on the 10 day MVA and rallied on low volume. Moving up after testing the breakout.
AIR 12/15 BO 15.18 -0.79 12.04 14.55 409K 150K 14.94
Current. thudded down holding below the 10 day MVA on lower, but strong volume. Testing the break out.
AIRN 12/04 Test BO 3.69 -0.09 3.22 4.18 570K 537K 3.49
Current. Pull back on average volume. Still in uptrend moving up the 10 day MVA.
ALTI 01/02 Test BO 3.48 +0.28 3.02 3.78 5.7M 2.3M 3.05
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA for a nice gain on stronger above average volume. Tapped 3.69 at the day's high, but gave some of it back.
ALTI 12/01 Dbl btm 3.48 +0.28 2.05 2.74 5.7M 1.2M 3.05
Current.
AMSC 12/29 Cup hdl 16.5 +0.1 13.37 16.22 454K 500K 15.55
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA showing a doji on above average volume.
AMXC 12/29 A Wedge 8.39 -0.01 7.98 9.98 30K 134K 8.04
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied showing a tight doji on very low volume. Beginning to make a lateral move above the 10 day MVA.
AMZN 12/24 Dbl btm 51.59 +1.35 53.82 64 13M 15M 51.12
Current. Gapped down at the open and rallied tapping the simple 50 day MVA and gave some of it back closing just below the 50 day MVA on stronger volume. Still in good shape.
AOT 11/24 Flat 24.59 +0.33 23.37 27.95 708K 405K 23.62
Current. Gapped down at the open and made a nice rally on strong volume. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA.
ARXX 01/05 Flat 13.86 -0.44 13.26 15.94 1.1M 700K 13.48
Current. More volatile with 14.35 a the high and 13.33 at the low. Pull back on lower, but still strong volume. Testing the break out and setting up well for the next move.
ATYT 01/06 Flat 17.07 -0.27 16.92 20.21 2.3M 3.9M 16.44
Current. Gapped down at the open and recovered some of the loss showing a doji on low volume. Managed to retain most of Wednesday's great move.
AVX 12/11 Flat 17.7 -0.38 16.25 19.55 317K 450K 17.18
Current. Pull back on lower, but still above average volume. Still in good shape.
AXYX 12/30 Rv H&S 5.59 -0.01 5.57 6.94 1.9M 703K 5.18
Current. Fractional pull back on much lower volume. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied.
BCR 12/17 Rv H&S 83.94 +1.13 80.93 92.95 407K 500K 81.57
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied for a nice move on stronger above average volume.
CHU 01/02 Test 50 11.3 -0.25 10.02 12.25 1.6M 880K 10.94
Current. Gapped up at the open, but reversed on lower, but still strong volume. Still in uptrend.
CKP 01/03 Flat 21.11 -0.55 20.84 24.85 403K 300K 20.55
Current. Moved down to test the 10 day MVA and rallied on higher volume. Managed to retain some of Monday's gain.
CKSW 12/30 Test 50 4.02 -0.17 4.49 5.51 270K 450K 4.14
Current. Pull back to tap the 50 day MVA and rallied holding simple 50 day MVA on low volume. Looking for a bounce off the 50 day MVA.
CTRA 12/10 Cup hdl 4.89 +0.07 4.45 5.69 300K 500K 4.46
Current. Volatile session with 5.08 at the high and 4.60 at the low. Moving up the 10 day MVA on average volume.
CYBX 12/22 DB hdl 34.28 -0.18 33.73 40.45 299K 429K 33.05
Current. Pull back on low volume. Beginning to make a lateral move.
CYD 01/02 Flat 28.03 -0.35 33.64 40.45 1.2M 4M 31.29
Current. Pull back showing a tight doji on the 50 day MVA on low volume. Looking for a bounce off the 50 day MVA.
CYH 01/09 DB hdl 27.63 -0.62 28.38 34 278K 550K 26.75
Buy Not Hit. Pull back on much lower volume.
DNA 01/03 Test BO 89.83 -0.89 94.55 100 3.3M 3M 92.88
Buy Not Hit. Continue to fall below the 18 day MVA on strong volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep an eye on it. Will look at it again at the 50 day MVA.
DRAX 01/06 Cup hdl 3.8 +0.22 3.88 4.74 538K 364K 3.52
Current. Moving back up the 10 day MVA on strong volume.
DTAS 12/09 Flat 10.82 +0.28 9.49 11.88 691K 517K 10.49
Current. Continue with uptrend pattern with a nice move on strong volume.
DTPI 12/17 A Wedge 10.93 +0.37 10.23 12.35 168K 577K 10.25
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on low volume.
EONC 01/08 Test 18 3.94 -0.02 4.09 5.12 104K 240K 3.73
Buy Not Hit. Gapped down to open on the 10 day MVA and rallied on low volume. Continue in uptrend pattern.
ERES 01/07 Dbl btm 30.7 +0.24 31.25 37.58 732K 2.1M 29.06
Buy Not Issued. Moving up the 10 day MVA on very low volume.
FSII 11/25 Flat 7.94 +0.29 6.54 7.98 128K 400K 7.32
Target Hit. Took all money off the table when the stock hit the target.
GTI 12/15 A Wedge 14 +0.25 12.66 15.22 923K 1.2M 13.18
Current. Continue moving up the 10 day MVA on average volume.
ILXO 01/09 DB hdl 22.25 +0.75 22.42 26.82 434K 692K 21.05
Current. Kept an eye on it as it formed a bigger double bottom
w/handle. Still a buy on a further volume move.
IMOS 12/26 A Wedge 13 +1 8.75 10.68 2.2M 552K 11.94
Current. Continue in uptrend pattern.
INAP 12/08 Test BO 2.49 -0.01 2.47 3.05 4.7M 5.2M 2.34
Current. More volatile session with 2.37 a the low (18 day MVA)and 2.64 at the high showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on low volume.
IONA 12/20 Test BO 6.5 +0.49 5.96 7.58 791K 600K 6.48
Current. Another explosive move up the 10 day MVA on strong volume.
IVIL 12/23 Flat 3.86 -0.09 3.59 4.52 282K 340K 3.65
Current. Pull back on much lower, but still above average volume. Still in good shape.
KEI 12/29 A Wedge 21.31 +0.16 18.73 22.78 66K 150K 20.55
Current. Moving up out of the lateral move on rising volume.
MALL 12/29 Test BO 17.5 +0.21 16.68 20 124K 170K 16.74
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
MAXM 12/01 Rv H&S 8.6 -0.11 8.09 9.88 153K 227K 8.42
Current. More volatile with 8.92 at the intraday high and 8.39 at the low holding just below the 10 day MVA on average volume. Testing the break out.
MIPS 01/06 A Wedge 6.49 0 6.49 7.88 211K 269K 6.01
Current. Volatile session with 6.85 at the high and 6.22 at the low showing a doji on below average volume. Testing the break out.
MMSI 12/29 Test 50 22.69 -0.17 22.11 26.55 133K 260K 22.41
Current. Gapped down to open on the 18 day MVA showing a doji on low volume. Testing the break out.
MSPD 12/15 A Wedge 9 -0.09 7.15 8.65 1.2M 1.1M 6.65
Pull back on much lower, but above average volume. Still in an uptrend. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
MTZ 12/26 Flat 14.8 -1.03 14.81 19.32 612K 300K 15.08
Current. Fell hard late to the 18 day MVA after looking as if
it would bounce. Must bounce here or exit.
MVSN 11/24 Cup hdl 26.4 -0.24 23.33 27.69 463K 891K 24.95
Current. Gapped down at the open and rallied to recover some of the loss on average volume. Testing the break out.
NANX 01/03 Test BO 12.39 +1.89 10 12 3M 300K 11.32
Target Hit. Took some of the money off the table when stock made an explosive move on excellent volume surge.
NOOF 11/01 Cup hdl 10.16 -0.31 5.27 6.32 298K 319K 9.95
Current. Gapped down at the open showing a tight doji above the 10 day MVA on low volume Testing the break out.
NOOF 10/25 Cup hdl 10.16 -0.31 4.78 6.21 298K 280K 9.95
Current.
NOVA 01/03 Test 18 4.18 +0.13 3.77 4.89 67K 105K 3.82
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on low volume.
NOVL 11/22 Test BO 11.26 +0.36 8.88 10.68 9.1M 10M 10.68
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA for a nice move on average volume. Moving up the 10 day MVA.
NUFO 01/05 Dbl btm 5.57 -0.26 5.38 6.55 492K 596K 5
Buy Not Issued. Pull back on lower volume. Still in good shape. Looking for low volume pull back for possible entry if volume is right.
OCLR 12/22 Flat 29.33 -0.52 29.51 35 59K 135K 28.88
Current. Low volume pull back. Still in good shape.
OHI 12/08 Flat 9.47 -0.03 8.71 10.48 143K 200K 9.23
Current. Pull back showing a doji on above average volume. Doji may indicate a change in the pattern.
OMCL 12/10 Cup hdl 18.25 -0.19 16.95 20.25 244K 300K 17.05
Current. Pull back to tap 17.50 at the intraday low and rallied on much lower volume. Still in an uptrend.
ONNN 12/16 Test BO 7.42 +0.23 7.42 8.88 3.4M 3.4M 6.79
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied on stronger volume. Tapped 7.77 at the high, but gave some of it back. Continue to climb the 10 day MVA.
ORBK 01/05 A Wedge 26.97 +0.09 25.16 30.25 204K 198K 25.42
Current. Tapped 25.91 at the intraday low and rallied as stock continued to move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
OSTK 12/11 Test BO 17.5 -1.47 20.35 24.45 1.3M 658K 18.98
Exited. Exited as stock thudded below the 50 day MVA on strong volume surge.
OTE 12/20 Cup hdl 7.66 -0.17 6.52 8.15 156K 135K 7.47
Pull back on above average volume. Still in an uptrend.
OTEX 01/05 Flat 24.88 +2.51 21.33 25.48 4.3M 650K 23.92
Target Hit. Took some of the money off the table and will let the remaining position work for us as stock made a great move on very strong volume surge. Tapped 25.97 at the high, but gave some of it back.
PEGA 01/07 Cup hdl 9.18 -0.11 9.25 11.12 79K 146K 8.72
Buy Not Issued. Pull back on low volume. Still in uptrend.
PHTN 01/08 Rv H&S 41.27 -1.19 42.75 50 494K 438K 39.76
Current. Looked strong, surging on good trade but then rolled
over and sold the last 2 hours. Will see if can form
a handle here and make the next breakout move.
PMTI 12/16 Dbl btm 11.03 -0.22 9.42 11.25 212K 180K 10.62
Target Hit. Took some of the money off the table when stock hit the target. Stock then pulled back on slightly higher volume. Still in good shape.
PSSI 11/19 Cup hdl 12.44 -0.22 10.26 12.95 545K 779K 12.09
Current. Pull back on lower volume. Still in uptrend after testing the break out.
PTEK 01/06 Flat 10.15 +0.13 9.78 11.75 1.6M 1.4M 9.09
Buy Not Issued. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on strong volume. The stock did not make the move we were looking for so will drop but will keep out eye on it.
PTNR 12/24 Cup hdl 8.14 -0.06 7.41 9.35 48K 135K 7.71
Current. Pull back on very low volume. Still in uptrend.
QCOM 12/11 Cup hdl 58.97 +0.02 50.61 58.25 12M 12M 56.12
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on above average volume.
QLTI 12/20 Test BO 19.54 -0.48 20.32 24.22 996K 1.2M 19.18
Current. Thudded down holding the 10 day MVA on stronger volume. Continue with the uptrend.
RETK 01/07 Cup 10.88 -0.69 11.22 13.48 668K 858K 10.43
Buy Not Issued. Pull back on lower, but still above average volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
RHAT 01/09 Test BO 20.39 +1.3 20.25 24.55 16M 7.1M 18.62
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
RHAT 12/18 DB hdl 20.39 +1.3 16.51 19.58 16M 5.5M 18.62
Current.
RWY 11/04 Cup hdl 8.48 +0.05 6.24 7.85 42K 146K 8.04
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on low volume.
SFY 12/08 Cup 17.89 +0.51 15.38 18.55 148K 200K 17.02
Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on low volume
SINA 01/07 DB hdl 40.65 +0.1 42.04 50 4.7M 12M 39.1
Buy Not Issued. Gapped down at the open, but rallied to recover the loss on low volume. Still in good shape.
SLXP 12/02 Flat 22.7 -0.19 20.29 24.55 106K 316K 21.84
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied showing a doji on low volume. Testing the break out.
STEL 12/18 Cup hdl 10.29 +0.04 10.87 13.12 181K 178K 10.11
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied as stock moves up the 10 day MVA on much stronger volume.
SYMM 01/08 Cup 8.59 +0.77 8.28 10 1.4M 346K 7.58
Current. Entered the play as stock made an explosive move up on very strong volume.
THER 12/29 Flat 20.23 -0.56 19.65 23.55 351K 1.3M 19.78
Current. Pull back on low volume. Still in good shape.
TMWD 12/30 Test 50 7.69 -0.21 8.38 10.15 208K 880K 7.45
Current. Tested the simple 50 day MVA and rallied showing a doji just above the simple 50 day MVA on low volume. Needs to bounce from here.
TRPH 12/11 Test BO 8.2 +0.37 6.49 7.68 2.1M 1.7M 7.27
Current. Continue in its uptrend pattern.
TRPH 12/01 Test 50 8.2 +0.37 5.58 6.94 2.1M 1.7M 7.27
Current.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 40.11 -0.11 23.42 27.62 271K 603K 38.88
Current. Continue to base around 40 on low volume.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 40.11 -0.11 21.88 26 271K 603K 38.88
Current.
TTI 12/13 A Wedge 27.25 +0.09 24.6 29.65 136K 165K 26.05
Current. Moving back up the 10 day MVA on above average volume.
TTMI 01/05 Rv H&S 17 -0.75 18.75 22.72 1.3M 725K 17.15
Current. Thudded down to test the 18 day MVA and rallied holding above the 18 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Held at support.
TUTR 01/08 A Wedge 11.76 +0.03 11.92 14.32 172K 284K 10.98
Buy Not Issued. Continue with uptrend pattern.
TUTS 12/29 Test 18 7 +0.45 7.19 8.94 436K 175K 6.46
Current. Tapped 6.50 at the low and rallied on stronger above average volume. Moving back up the 10 day MVA.
VAR 10/28 Cup hdl 69.86 +0.58 64.5 74.25 555K 1.1M 68.64
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied. Beginning to move up the 10 day MVA.
VNWK 12/30 DB hdl 2.73 -0.14 2.34 3.05 473K 271K 2.44
Current. Pull back on much lower, but still above average volume. Continue with its uptrend.
WMS 11/21 Dbl btm 27.34 -0.1 25.83 31.22 176K 650K 26.48
Current. Gapped down showing a tight doji on low volume. Still in good shape.
XING 01/07 Flat 12.8 +0.82 11.25 14.25 3M 862K 10.94
Current. Continue with its uptrend pattern with a great move up the 10 day MVA on strong volume.
ZMH 08/09 Test BO 70.85 -0.3 51.12 59.55 761K 3M 65.98
Current. Pull back on low volume. Still in uptrend.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
BBY 12/22 Put 54 +0.28 49.54 46.45 5.8M 5M 51.82
Current. Moving up off the 50 day MVA on lower, but still strong volume. Tapped 54.79 at the high, but could not hold the gain. Needs to roll over from here.
LNCR 12/10 Put 28.53 -0.77 30.89 28.04 2.1M 2.5M 29.72
Current. Gapped down and continued to fall down the 10 day MVA on above average volume.
TTC 12/15 Put 45.58 -0.5 45.92 42.51 134K 150K 47.05
Nice move down the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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