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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good moves Thursday: BEAV (bonus); DNA; SNUS
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
New Pre-Split:
Play Date: 01/15/2004
THO (Thor Industries--$59.17; +0.6; optionable): Recreational vehicles. Splits 2:1 on 1-27-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tho.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA (57.69). THO is coming off the bottom of a 10 week base that has held roughly at the 50 day MVA. Accumulation the base is 3 to 3 at this point, not bad as it is will only improve as it moves up the right side of the base. It is coming off the 50 day but it will need more volume. Looking for above average volume on a move over the 50 day MVA. Money flow is already running up ahead of price and we are looking for price to follow.
Volume: 205.3K Avg Volume: 212.545K
BUY POINT: $59.96 Volume=255K Target=$64.85 Stop=$57.48
POSITION: THO CL - Mar. $60c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tho.html
Leadership stocks: Maybe not ready for a split, but setting up well for an upside move.
Play Date: 01/15/2004
DFIB (Cardiac Science--$4.45; 0; no options): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dfib.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. DFIB is forming the handle to a 15 week base showing solid 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). It formed over the 200 day MVA (3.42), a good indication of support for the stock. Thursday it tapped the 18 day MVA on the low (4.27) and rebounded for a small gain on rising, above average volume. Money flow is excellent, running up even as the stock pulls back to form the handle. Now we look for that volume to continue as it moves over 4.75 and breaks out of the pattern.
Volume: 1.942M Avg Volume: 830.318K
BUY POINT: $4.83 Volume=1.2M Target=$5.85 Stop=$4.49
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dfib.html
Play Date: 01/15/2004
FCS (Fairchild Semiconductor--$27.80; 0.00; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fcs.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Thursday FCS was on the move, makign a high volume breakout from its 6 week base. The base used the 50 day MVA (24.03) on the lows as support, a good sign of big money stepping in to buy at that important support level. Accumulation is solid at 3 to 1, another indication of big money buying into the stock as it consolidates. Thursday it reported strong earnings, beating the street by 4 cents and guiding higher. We like that it has already reported earnings. Looking for positions on a further move higher and then again on a test of the breakout.
Volume: 4.406M Avg Volume: 1.795M
BUY POINT: $27.94 Volume=2.2M Target=$33.52 Stop=$25.98
POSITION: FCS EE - May $25c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fcs.html
Play Date: 01/15/2004
PWAV (Powerwave Technologies--$9.73; +0.3; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pwav.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Very nice 18 week base sporting solid 5 to 3 accumulation and money flow that is surging ahead of price, leading the way toward a breakout. The base formed over the 200 day MVA (6.86), a key support level. Looks solid, just waiting for a high volume move to break it out over near resistance in the handle. Earnings January 22.
Volume: 4.416M Avg Volume: 3.238M
BUY POINT: $10.42 Volume=4.9M Target=$12.54 Stop=$9.69
POSITION: VFQ EB - May $10c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pwav.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 12/22/2003
CYBX (Cybertronics--$33.41; -0.09; optionable): Medical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cybx.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CYBX broke out of a very sweet 13 week double bottom with handle last week but did not get very far before it started to test back. It has held the 10 day MVA (33.34) on the pullback, showing a very tight doji at that level. That often indicates the pullback is over. Solid money flow and just looking for another move up on volume from here.
Volume: 350.25K Avg Volume: 316.318K
BUY POINT: $33.73 Volume=429K Target=$40.45 Stop=$33.05
POSITION: QAJ DF - Apr. $30c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cybx.html
Play Date: 01/13/2004
IDEV (Interneuron Pharma--$6.85; -0.05; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idev.html
STATUS: Flat. Huge breakout Tuesday on excellent volume is being tested to end the week. Volume has dropped below average on the test. It has not come back far, holding onto the gains. Just looking for it to turn back up on once again rising volume to jump in. Great 7 month flat base sporting excellent 11 to 2 accumulation.
Volume: 307.039K Avg Volume: 340.227K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 6.97; Breakout: $7.12 Volume=500K Target=$8.55 Stop=$6.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/idev.html
Play Date: 01/13/2004
SNUS (Sonus Pharmaceutical--$6.43; +0.28; no options): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snus.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Making the rebound we were looking for after the 10 day MVA (5.97) test. Volume was up Thursday to average as it started back up. Still a buy on this move as it clears the breakout high. Accumulation in the base is an outstanding 5 to 1.
Volume: 97.918K Avg Volume: 116.727K
BUY POINT: Breakout: $6.55 (orig. 6.22) Volume=175K Target=$7.95 Stop=$6.09
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/snus.html
Play Date: 01/10/2004
SPIL (Siliconware Precision--$5.7; -0.08; no options): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spil.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. SPIL jumped out of its short 9 week reverse head and shoulders base last Friday on a tremendous volume surge. It immediately started to test, easing back on low volume to tap the 10 day MVA (5.57) on the Thursday low and then rebounding to cut its losses. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation and money flow still surging up ahead of price.
Volume: 1.328M Avg Volume: 1.612M
BUY POINT: $5.84 Volume=1.9M Target=$7.35 Stop=$5.47
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/spil.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: We will to look at the stocks in the best patterns for entry points moving into the potential split announcements. We are researching the next date on those that did not announce but are still very strong. Some companies are still gun-shy about announcing splits, but one of the things we love about split plays is that they involve market leaders that make us good money even if they do not announce.
ACV: January 1-22-04 before the open. The annual shareholder meeting is on the same date.
APPB: Forecast 2-13-04 after the close. Had to close it out for now as just not performing.
APOL: Forecast 3-24-04 or with the 2-27-04 board meeting. Neither confirmed yet.
BCR: Forecast 1-27-04. Nice steady move higher.
DE: Forecast 2-14-04.
DCOM: 1-22-04 after the close. Very nice recovery, holding the 50 day MVA though no volume yet. A move over 32 on strong trade.
DNA: Forecast 1-14-04. No split but a nice test and rebound on volume. Looks great.
GGG: Forecast 1-22-04.
LEA: Forecast 1-26-04
LXK: Forecast 1-26-04 before the open.
MBG: Researching new date.
MBT: Researching date.
MGAM: Forecast 1-28-04 before the open.
NSIT: Forecast 1-30-04.
OSI: Forecast 2-11-04. And still trying to hold the 50 day MVA.
RESP: Forecast 1-22-04 before the open.
SHFL: Forecast 2-19-04 with earnings.
SONC: Forecast 1-24-04 in conjunction with its shareholder meeting.
SOV: Forecast 1-20-04 with earnings.
UOPX: Forecast 3-24-03 with earnings.
VAR: Forecast 1-28-04 after the close or 2-19 in conjunction with its shareholder meeting.
VIP: Forecast 3-26-04.
VRTS: Forecast 1-28-04 after the close.
WFMI: Forecast 2-11-04.
XTO: Forecast 2-18-04 in conjunction with earnings.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 12/30/2003
LXK (Lexmark Intl.--$79.65; +0.22; optionable): Printers. Forecast to announce a split on 1-26-04 before the open in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announce a 2 for 1 split on 4-29-99 at a stock price of $110. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-30-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lxk.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. After coming off the 50 day (76), LXK is straining at a breakout over a relatively constant top at 80. Volume ahs started to to swell this year as the range tightens and pressure builds for an upside breakout. Want to see really strong trade on a move over 80.
Volume: 845.8K Avg Volume: 1.145M
BUY POINT: New: $80.22 (orig. $79.12) Volume=2M Target=$89 Stop=$77.12
POSITION: LXK DP - Apr. $80c (42 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lxk.html
Play Date: 01/03/2004
MBT (Mobile Telesys--$86.5; +1.19; optionable): Russian wireless communications
BACKGROUND: No splits in its past, and a foreign stock as well. That does not mean it won't split, but it is harder to predict. What we do like is the pattern and its leadership status; it can make us nice gains without announcing a split, and when it comes, all the better.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mbt.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. After shooting out of a 12 week flat base to start the year and reaching 90 on the move, MBT is coming back to test. Thursday it tapped at the 18 day MVA (84.38) on the low and rebounded on solid trade to post a nice gain. Looks as if the test is over and we are ready to move in on a further volume move higher.
Volume: 313.9K Avg Volume: 249.772K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 87.42 (orig. $88.39) Volume=412K Target=$99.95 Stop=$84.55
POSITION: MBT FQ - June $85c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mbt.html
Play Date: 01/06/2004
RESP (Respironics--$49.88; +0.08; optionable): Medical appliances. Forecast to announce a split on 1-22-04 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split in 1995 at a stock price of $22.50. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-18-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/resp.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Nice breakout test is still underway after the explosive breakout from its 5 week cup with handle. Volume has dropped below average as RESP tests, but it is not giving up much ground, a sign of strenth. We were looking for a test of the 10 day MVA (47.60), but it may not make it that far.
Volume: 185.462K Avg Volume: 221.09K
BUY POINT: From here: 50.45. Test 48.60, then 49.25 on rising volume. Volume=305K Target=$58 Stop=$47.48
POSITION: RBQ DI - Apr. $45c (75 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/resp.html
Play Date: 11/22/2003
SHFL (Shuffle Master--$36.90; -0.29; optionable): Gaming machines (card shufflers, etc.). Forecast to announce a split on 2-19-04 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-1-01 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $31.80. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-12-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shfl.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. SHFL is testing the 10 day MVA (36.60), its second test since the mid-December breakout. Strong stocks tend to run 4 to 5 bounces up the short term MVA (10 or 18 day MVA) after a breakout. That still leaves plenty of upside for SHFL. Thursday it tapped the 10 day MVA on the low and rebounded some on stronger trade. That often signals the bounce back up is coming.
Volume: 547.788K Avg Volume: 254.909K
BUY POINT: New: $37.65 (orig. $31.47) Volume=425K Target=New positions: $45.22 (orig. $37.55) Stop=$35.72
POSITION: SFQ EG - May $35c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/shfl.html
Play Date: 01/10/2004
SONC (Sonic Corp.--$33.72; -0.25; optionable): Forecast to announce a split January 24 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting at 1:30 p.m. CT.
BACKGROUND: SONC last announced a 3:2 split 1-17-02 at its annual shareholder meeting with a stock price of $36.30. A frequent splitter announce roughly every 2 years.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sonc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still moving laterally over the 10 day MVA (33.20) as it tests the breakout from its 7 month cup with handle. Volume has backed off to below average on the move just as it should, showing no heavy selling. It is setting up well for the next move. We were looking for it to test 32.50, but it looks as if the 10 day will hold.
Volume: 232.415K Avg Volume: 347.181K
BUY POINT: $34.22. Volume=562K Target=$39.15 Stop=$31.55
POSITION: ZSQ FF - June $30c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sonc.html
Play Date: 01/06/2004
VRTS (Veritas--$40.13; 0; optionable): Application software. Forecast to announce a split on 1-28-04 after the close in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: VRTS has announced a split every year from 1995 to 2000. Announced a 3 for 2 split on 9-4-97 at a stock price of $47. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-6-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrts.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. VRTS is getting some life as it is working on clearing resistance at 40. It is trying to make a definitive breakout from its 9 week base that formed over the 50 day MVA (37.16), a good sign that it is receiving support from big money. Speaking of money, money flow is surging up ahead of price. VRTS is starting to respond, as volume jumped Thursday to just above average as VRTS attempted a breakout move. Looks ready to finally deliver on the goods.
Volume: 5.56M Avg Volume: 5.366M
BUY POINT: $39.22 Volume=8M Target=$47 Stop=$37.22
POSITION: VIV EH - May $40c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vrts.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 07/30/2003
SBUX (Starbucks--$33.94; +0.31; optionable): High priced coffee
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbux.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. SBUX is straining to make the next breakout move, but it continues to have a problem at 34. Thursday volume was up and above average and it hit 34.30 on the high, but it could not hold the move. Still looks ready as it tests the early month breakout on news its December sales were surging. Money flow is running ahead of the stock. Just looking for another volume move over 40 that holds.
Volume: 3.313M Avg Volume: 2.5M
BUY POINT: New: $34.28 (orig. $30.35) Volume=6M Target=New positions: $40 (orig. positions: $36.75) Stop=$32.55
POSITION: SQX GZ - July $32.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sbux.html
Play Date: 01/13/2004
STJ (St. Jude Medical--$63.63; +0.07; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stj.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still in a very nice handle to its short 6 week base sporting 3 to 0 accumulation. This base is part of a larger 7 month cup with handle base that has strong 7 to 4 accumulation itself (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume). Looks ready to go with excellent money flow helping lead the way.
Volume: 1.246M Avg Volume: 1.437M
BUY POINT: $64.45 Volume=2.2M Target=$75 Stop=$62.12
POSITION: STJ DM - Apr. $65c (41 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stj.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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