|
|
stock split, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
Play Date: 12/13/2003
SOV (Sovereign Bancorp--$24.51; +0.42; optionable): Savings & Loan. Forecast to announce a split on 1-20-04 with earnings.
BACKGROUND: SOV was a frequent splitter back in the late 1990's, announcing three 6:5 splits in 97 and 98 before it sank into a deep correction in 1999 that lasted until 2002. It is now back up to those old prices.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sov.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. The pattern has turned into an ascending triangle, working up the 18 day MVA (23.76) below a constant high at 24.75. Volume the past four sessions has surged above average as SOV approaches the resistance point. Excellent 4 to 0 accumulation in the base and money flow is surging higher ahead of price. Monday is the day we are looking for a split announcement, and we are ready to add to positions on the breakout move.
Volume: 2.605M Avg Volume: 2.119M
BUY POINT: $24.37 Volume=2.7M Target=$29.12 Stop=$23.88
POSITION: SOV DX - Apr. $22.50c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sov.html
Play Date: 01/06/2004
VRTS (Veritas--$40.09; -0.04; optionable): Application software. Forecast to announce a split on 1-28-04 after the close in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: VRTS has announced a split every year from 1995 to 2000. Announced a 3 for 2 split on 9-4-97 at a stock price of $47. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-6-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrts.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Trying to make the clean break over 40 but running out of volume at the critical juncture. It looked good Thursday with a nice jump off the 10 day MVA, but Friday it fizzled. We still want to see a definitive breakout from its 9 week base still showing solid accumulation at 2 to 0. Good money flow is still moving up ahead of the price. Again, just want to see a definitive break higher.
Volume: 5.248M Avg Volume: 5.559M
BUY POINT: New: $40.48 (orig. $39.22) Volume=8M Target=$47 Stop=$37.22
POSITION: VIV EH - May $40c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vrts.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 01/15/2004
THO (Thor Industries--$59.99; +0.82; optionable): Recreational vehicles. Splits 2:1 on 1-27-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tho.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA (57.78). THO moved up again Friday, edging over the breakout point but unable to generate much volume. Still looks solid with that 3 to 3 accumulation before it starts to make its move to form the right side of its base. Looking for a stronger move over 60 to enter the position for a run up to the prior high. Money flow is running up ahead of price. Again we are looking at options to leverage our gain given the move we are looking at.
Volume: 199.9K Avg Volume: 221.29K
BUY POINT: $59.96 Volume=255K Target=$64.85 Stop=$57.48
POSITION: THO CL - Mar. $60c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tho.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 01/13/2004
STJ (St. Jude Medical--$64.62; +0.99; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stj.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Started the move we were looking for Friday though volume could have been a bit better. It is a solid pattern, starting to breakout from the handle to its short 6 week base sporting 3 to 0 accumulation. This base is part of a larger 7 month cup with handle base that has strong 7 to 4 accumulation itself (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume). Still a buy at this point on even stronger trade.
Volume: 1.697M Avg Volume: 1.468M
BUY POINT: New: 64.88 (orig. $64.68) Volume=2.2M Target=$75 Stop=$62.98
POSITION: STJ DM - Apr. $65c (41 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stj.html
WATCHLIST/ CONTINUING
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
The following link is to a spreadsheet download of the continuing play table. It will allow you to sort the data for your own investment use. This is a service to our subscribers only, and no other use of the information is authorized. Simply click on the link, enter your username and password, and download the spreadsheet!
http://www.stocksplits.net/ssr/table.php
(You will need your password ... if you need help click on this link and our automated system will email it to you immediately once you fill in your email address:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3 )
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; PreAnn=Pre-Announcement split; PreSplt=Pre-split; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AGN 01/13 Cup hdl 81.31 +0.64 81.78 94 667K 1.2M 77.98
Buy Not Hit. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on rising volume.
ALTI 01/02 Test BO 3.46 -0.09 3.02 3.78 1.9M 2.3M 3.34
Current. Gapped up at the open, but reversed on low volume. Still in good shape.
ALTI 12/01 Dbl btm 3.46 -0.09 2.05 2.74 1.9M 1.2M 3.34
Current.
AMZN 12/24 Dbl btm 55.72 -0.46 53.82 64 9.1M 15M 53.94
Current. Pull back on average volume. Still in uptrend.
APA 12/16 Test BO 41.46 +0.58 39.09 43 2.2M 1.2M 40.68
Target Hit. Took the option gain as they were January. Nice 110%
gain on them as APA held the 18 day MVA and rebounded.
APOL 12/01 DB hdl 74.14 +0.17 70.72 82 1M 2.9M 71.94
Current. Continue in uptrend pattern on low volume.
APOL 11/22 DB hdl 74.14 +0.17 66.54 82 1M 2.9M 71.94
Current.
ASKJ 01/04 Test 50 23.48 +0.09 20.88 24.95 1.7M 3.7M 22.62
Current. Tapped 22.56 at the intraday low and rallied on low volume. Moving up on lower volume after the stock tested the break out.
ATYT 01/06 Flat 17.55 0 16.92 20.21 3.3M 3.9M 16.78
Current. Gapped up at the open and continued to move up the 10 day MVA for a nice gain on strong above average volume.
AXYX 12/30 Rv H&S 6.49 +0.21 5.57 6.94 1.4M 703K 5.84
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on above average volume.
BCR 12/17 Rv H&S 87.1 +1.27 80.93 92.95 342K 500K 85.25
Current. Continue in its uptrend.
BEAV 11/18 Test BO 6.35 +0.05 6.27 7.72 480K 506K 5.96
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on strong volume.
BSX 12/17 Test 50 37.55 +0.43 36.62 42.12 3.2M 8.2M 34.74
Buy Not Issued. Continue with low volume ascent. Never entered the play, because the volume was not there. The stock did not make the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
CCUR 01/12 Cup hdl 5 -0.29 5.83 7 2.9M 1.3M 5.42
Buy Not Hit. Thudded down holding at support on rising volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
CHINA 01/08 Flat 11.43 -0.19 11.84 14.32 5M 5.1M 10.98
Current. Gapped up at the open, but reversed on much lower volume. Still in good shape.
CHU 01/02 Test 50 11.23 +0.06 10.02 12.25 1M 880K 10.94
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move on above average volume.
CKSW 12/30 Test 50 4.03 -0.08 4.49 5.51 217K 450K 4.14
Current. Pull back holding at support showing a tight doji on slightly higher volume. Tapped 4.20 at the high, but gave it back. Needs to rebound from here.
CLEC 10/30 Cup hdl 7.99 +0.1 5.54 6.94 52K 96K 7.48
Bounced off the 18 day MVA and rallied on low volume. Break out on low volume from the lateral move.
CYBX 12/22 DB hdl 37.92 +4.51 33.73 40.45 1.5M 429K 37.25
Current. Explosive move on excellent volume surge.
DE 12/16 A Wedge 64.86 -1.17 64.78 77.55 2.5M 2.2M 64.13
Current. Thudded down to tap 64.17 at the low and rallied holding the 10 day MVA on much stronger volume. Still in good shape.
DFIB 01/15 Cup hdl 4.42 -0.03 4.83 5.85 736K 1.2M 4.49
Buy Not Hit. Making a lateral move on the 10 day MVA on low volume.
DGX 01/06 Test BO 76.81 +0.03 73.88 84.85 588K 1.2M 74.41
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move showing a tight doji on slightly higher volume.
DNA 01/03 Test BO 92.75 +0.77 93.06 100 2.3M 3M 91.25
Buy Not Hit. Moving up the 10 day MVA on average volume.
DRAX 01/06 Cup hdl 4.22 0 3.88 4.74 456K 364K 3.98
Current. Continue with uptrend.
DTAS 12/09 Flat 12.05 +0.07 9.49 11.88 268K 517K 11.92
Current. Making a lateral move above the 10 day MVA showing a doji on very low volume.
EBAY 08/02 PreSplt 66.93 +0.3 53.78 60 7M 9M 63.84
Current. Continue with uptrend on below average volume.
EBAY 03/08 BO 66.93 +0.3 40.04 46 7M 8M 63.84
Current.
EONC 01/08 Test 18 3.86 +0.11 4.09 5.12 223K 240K 3.73
Buy Not Issued. Gapped down to open below the 18 day MVA and rallied to tap 4.09 at the intraday high, gave most of it back on stronger above average volume.
ERES 01/07 Dbl btm 35.58 +2 32.55 38.88 1.4M 2.1M 34.45
Current. Gapped up at the open and continued to rally for a nice move up the 10 day MVA on higher, but still below average volume.
FALC 12/18 Flat 9.74 -0.09 8.58 10.35 199K 300K 9.42
Current. Continue to pull back holding the 10 day MVA on low volume. Testing the break out.
FCS 01/15 Cup hdl 27.99 +0.19 27.94 33.52 2.4M 2.2M 25.98
Buy Not Issued. Moving up the 10 day MVA on much lower, but still strong volume. Given the market and the stock's recent nice move up, will wait for a pull back for possible entry.
GGG 12/20 FlyPlat 39.96 +0.06 40.55 48.75 61K 200K 39.42
Buy Not Issued. Making a lateral move on the 18 day MVA on low volume.
GPRO 11/12 Cup hdl 36.92 0 30.85 36.95 934K 1.1M 34.48
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on slightly higher volume. Tapped 38 at the high, but gave much of it back.
GRMN 11/24 Cup hdl 57.75 +0.25 54.38 62 366K 690K 56.11
Current. Continue low volume lateral move.
GRMN 11/09 Cup hdl 57.75 +0.25 53.82 62 366K 690K 56.11
Current.
HAR 12/29 A Wedge 78.53 +0.13 73.25 80 287K 400K 77.94
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on low volume.
HOLX 12/06 Cup 18.2 +0.52 16.32 19.65 325K 200K 17.55
Current. Gapped down to open on the 18 day MVA and rallied for a nice move on very strong volume.
IDEV 01/13 Flat 7.1 +0.25 7.12 8.55 1.1M 500K 6.48
Buy Not Issued. Solid move but was faltering some in the last half
hour so we waited. May have made a mistake as volume
was up as it jumped back.
IGT 09/16 Rv H&S 35.64 -0.24 29.05 34.55 2.6M 4.7M 35.22
Current. Pull back on slightly lower volume.
KSWS 12/09 Test 18 26.55 -0.07 23.65 27.06 283K 200K 25.55
Current. Making a lateral move on low volume.
KSWS 11/19 Test BO 26.55 -0.07 22.36 25.5 283K 225K 25.55
Current.
LEA 01/10 Cup hdl 67.5 -0.25 64.65 74.35 432K 680K 65.25
Continue uptrend pattern.
LLTC 01/08 Cup 43.3 +0.72 44.95 53 6.7M 6.4M 43.12
Current. Tested the simple 50 day MVA and rallied closing above the 10 day MVA on lower, but still very strong volume. Still in good shape.
LXK 12/30 Rv H&S 80 +0.35 79.12 89 592K 2M 77.12
Buy Not Issued. Continue uptrend pattern on low volume. Did not enter the play, because volume was not there.
MALL 12/29 Test BO 17.75 +0.15 16.68 20 74K 170K 16.74
Current. Tapped support at 17 intraday and rallied showing a doji on low volume. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on very low volume.
MBG 11/18 Cup hdl 46.93 +0.49 44.3 53 774K 1.8M 45.72
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on rising volume after testing the break out.
MBT 01/03 Cup 87.1 +0.6 88.39 99.95 170K 412K 84.55
Current. Moving up on lower volume after testing the break out.
MGAM 01/10 Test BO 48.38 +1.36 46.25 53.18 342K 862K 43.55
Buy Not Issued. Break out on slightly higher volume from the lateral move.
MMSI 12/29 Test 50 23.1 -0.59 22.11 26.55 156K 260K 22.68
Current. Pull back holding the 10 day MVA on low volume. Still in good shape.
MVIS 01/12 DB hdl 7.89 -0.06 8.64 10.38 148K 222K 8.04
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 8.03 at the high (10 day MVA) and 7.80 at the low (50 day MVA) showing a tight doji just under the 18 day MVA on stronger above average volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
NCEN 01/10 A Wedge 44.23 +0.43 41.69 49.42 945K 1.4M 42.96
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
OSIS 12/01 DB hdl 21.68 +0.43 19.69 23.62 208K 365K 20.92
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on rising volume.
OTEX 01/05 Flat 24.04 -0.33 21.33 25.48 507K 650K 23.92
Current. Continue to pull back on lower volume. Testing the break out.
PHTN 01/08 Rv H&S 43.91 +2.81 42.75 50 439K 438K 42.35
Current. Bounced of the 10 day MVA for an explosive move on strong volume.
PWAV 01/15 Cup hdl 10.26 +0.53 10.42 12.54 4.6M 4.9M 9.69
Buy Not Issued. Volume was decent and the price move solid but it was dipping below the buy point near the close so we let it go for Friday & will look at Tuesday.
QCOM 12/11 Cup hdl 59.67 -0.25 50.61 58.25 11M 12M 58.28
Current. Making a lateral move showing a doji on slightly higher volume.
RESP 01/06 Dbl btm 44.46 -5.42 50.45 58 3.7M 305K 47.48
Exited. Exited as stock tanked below the simple 50 day MVA on strong volume surge.
ROST 12/06 Test 50 28.55 -0.24 26.96 31.19 1.1M 1M 27.86
Current. Pull back on low volume. Still in good shape.
ROST 11/20 Test 50 28.55 -0.24 27.29 31 1.1M 1M 27.86
Current.
SBUX 07/30 Cup 34.56 +0.62 30.35 36.75 3.2M 6M 33.06
Target Hit. Took the January options for a very nice gain. Left
the stock positions as SBUX started a good break higher.
SBUX 07/01 Cup 34.56 +0.62 26.3 30.94 3.2M 6M 33.06
Current.
SFY 12/08 Cup 18.23 -0.29 15.38 18.55 258K 200K 17.68
Gapped up at the open, but reversed on stronger volume holding above the 10 day MVA. May test back to the 10 day MVA.
SHFL 11/22 Cup hdl 36.26 -0.64 31.47 37.55 238K 425K 35.72
Current. Pull back holding below the 10 day MVA on low volume. Testing the break out.
SLXP 12/02 Flat 23 +0.18 20.29 24.55 70K 316K 22.18
Current. Continue with lateral move on low volume.
SNUS 01/13 Test BO 6.53 +0.1 6.55 7.95 67K 175K 6.09
Buy Not Issued. Moving up the 10 day MVA on low volume.
SNWL 01/10 Flat 9.15 +0.2 8.99 10.72 474K 1.1M 8.44
Current. Continue with uptrend
SONC 01/10 Test BO 33.56 -0.16 34.28 41 179K 562K 32.68
Buy Not Issued. continue with lateral move on low volume.
SOV 12/13 Test BO 24.51 +0.42 24.37 29.12 2.6M 2.7M 23.88
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied on above average volume. Moving up the 10 day MVA.
SPIL 01/10 Cup hdl 6.02 +0.32 5.84 7.35 4M 1.9M 5.55
Current. Entered the play as stock tested the 10 day MVA and rallied for a great move on strong above average volume. Tapped 6.15 at the high, but gave some of it back. Moving up on rising volume after testing the break out.
STJ 01/13 Cup hdl 64.62 +0.99 64.68 75 1.7M 2.2M 62.98
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA and rallied on stronger volume.
STXN 01/14 Cup hdl 5.9 +0.2 6 7.28 1.1M 584K 5.48
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA for a nice gain on much lower, but still strong volume.
SYK 12/29 A Wedge 89.16 +2.88 88.75 100 1.1M 745K 86.45
Current. Gapped up at the open and continued to rally for an excellent move on very strong volume surge.
SYKE 01/14 Cup 9.72 +0.13 9.88 11.85 129K 285K 9.19
Buy Not Hit. Moving up the 10 day MVA on low volume.
THO 01/15 Test 50 59.99 +0.82 59.96 64.85 200K 255K 57.48
Buy Not Issued. Moving up the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Did not enter the play, because the volume was not there.
TMWD 12/30 Test 50 7.37 -0.13 8.38 10.15 696K 880K 7.45
Current. Thudded down below the 50 day MVA and held at support on strong volume. Looking for a bounce from here for possible exit.
TRPH 12/11 Test BO 8.14 +0.25 6.49 7.68 641K 1.7M 7.68
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on low volume.
TRPH 12/01 Test 50 8.14 +0.25 5.58 6.94 641K 1.7M 7.68
Current.
TSCO 07/29 Test BO 39.25 -0.54 28.06 31.44 461K 494K 38.88
Current. Thudded down below the 50 day MVA on stronger volume. May test to 38.35.
TSCO 07/05 Test 50 39.25 -0.54 26.62 30 461K 500K 38.88
Current.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 39.25 -0.54 23.42 27.62 461K 603K 38.88
Current.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 39.25 -0.54 21.88 26 461K 603K 38.88
Current.
TSCO 04/03 Rv H&S 39.25 -0.54 19.3 22.19 461K 577K 38.88
Current.
TTMI 01/05 Rv H&S 19.66 0 18.75 22.72 1.1M 725K 18.65
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA for a great move on strong volume surge.
TUTS 12/29 Test 18 7.35 +0.3 7.19 8.94 113K 175K 6.86
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied on low volume after testing the break out.
UOPX 11/03 Test 50 77.52 -0.2 71.12 84 116K 315K 75.72
Current. More volatile with 78.38 at the high and 76.56 at the low showing a tight doji on low volume.
UOPX 10/25 Test 50 77.52 -0.2 68.95 82 116K 315K 75.72
Current.
UTSI 01/05 Cup 38 +1.11 40.15 46.55 2.5M 4M 39.28
Current. Move up off the 50 day MVA and rallied holding just under the 18 day MVA on low volume. Looking for another rebound.
UTSI 11/22 Test 50 38 +1.11 36.88 44 2.5M 6.4M 39.28
Current.
VAR 10/28 Cup hdl 75.37 +1.18 64.5 74.25 451K 1.1M 73.88
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on average volume.
VIP 01/03 Test BO 71.12 +0.67 75.55 85 472K 615K 70.88
Moving up showing a tight doji on much lower, but still average volume. Still in good shape.
VOCL 01/13 DB hdl 6.16 -0.01 6.62 8.28 199K 581K 6.16
Buy Not Issued. Making a lateral move on low volume.
VRTS 01/06 A Wedge 40.09 -0.04 39.22 47 5.2M 8M 37.22
Buy Not Issued. Beginning to make a lateral move on average volume.
VTIV 01/03 A Wedge 10.37 +0.12 9.69 11.68 54K 238K 9.86
Current. Continue in uptrend pattern.
WFMI 12/18 Flat 69.92 -0.69 66.92 77 431K 1M 68.12
Current. continue with low volume pull back as stock tests the break out.
WMS 11/21 Dbl btm 27.97 +0.62 25.83 31.22 143K 650K 26.88
Current. Continue with uptrend on rising volume.
YELL 12/11 Rv H&S 37.72 +0.42 35.25 42.25 383K 1.3M 36.48
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on low volume.
ZMH 08/09 Test BO 76.15 +5.49 51.12 59.55 2.9M 3M 74.42
Current. what an explosive move on strong volume surge.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
TTC 12/15 Put 45.84 -0.47 45.92 42.51 89K 150K 47.05
Rolled over on slightly higher volume. Held above support.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
stock split
stock recommendation
|
