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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good moves Tuesday: ALTI; BCR; CHU; EONC; MBT; OTEX; PHTN; SFY; STXN
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
New Pre-Split:
Play Date: 01/20/2004
OVTI (Omnivision Technologies--$58.78; +2.09; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits. Splits 2:1 on 2-17-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/ovti.html
STATUS: Test 50 day MVA. OVTI has made a strong trend higher from January 2003, almost a six-fold move. It has steadfastly held the 50 day MVA (56.87) on the move. Though it has become more volatile the past 2 months as it jumped higher and then sank faster back to the 50 day MVA, it has held that level and set up for another bounce in the pattern. We are looking at picking it up off this level on stronger volume for a quick pre-split run. We are primarily looking at options for the leverage over a shorter move, but if it does make the target (the prior high near 67.50) stock positions will do well.
Volume: 1.479M Avg Volume: 1.45M
BUY POINT: $60.12 Volume=2M Target=$67.48 Stop=$56.55
POSITION: UCM FL - June $60c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ovti.html
Leadership stocks: Maybe not ready for a split, but setting up well for an upside move.
Play Date: 01/20/2004
CANI (Carreker--$15; +1.25; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cani.html
STATUS: Flat base. CANI is starting to make the break higher from its 7 week base, moving up off the 18 day MVA (13.89) on rising though still below average volume. Very solid 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume) in the base, indicating that the stock was accumulated as it moved laterally to consolidate a nice run from 6 to 16. These tight lateral patterns after a move higher are the stepping stone to the next rally. All CANI needs is more volume on this move to be ready to make the next break higher.
Volume: 335.343K Avg Volume: 318.045K
BUY POINT: $15.32 Volume=477K Target=$18.38 Stop=$14.18
POSITION: CDU EC - May $15c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cani.html
Play Date: 01/20/2004
OBAS (Optibase--$8.32; +0.73; no options): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/obas.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. OBAS came to life in the summer, rallying from $3 to over $8 at its peak. It then fell back into the current 7 week base, a very neat double bottom with handle that sports excellent 4 to 0 accumulation. Tuesday it started breaking higher on very strong trade, moving over the high in the short weeklong handle. It is a solid move and we are looking to take positions if it can maintain the moveon continued strong trade.
Volume: 447.904K Avg Volume: 129.818K
BUY POINT: $8.48 Volume=200K Target=$10.22 Stop=$7.89
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/obas.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 01/04/2004
ASKJ (Ask Jeeves--$24; +0.52; optionable): Internet information
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/askj.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. An excellent surge this month, rallying from the 50 day MVA (20.30) to 24.87. It is testing that move, coming back to the 10 day MVA (23.05) on lower, below average volume. A very nice break higher and a good first test. Now we are ready to add positoins on a further volume break higher.
Volume: 1.699M Avg Volume: 2.108M
BUY POINT: New: 24.28 (orig. $20.88) Volume=3.7M Target=New positions: $28 (orig. positions $24.95) Stop=$22.62
POSITION: AUK CD - Mar. $20c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/askj.html
Play Date: 01/08/2004
CHINA (Chinadotcom--$11.28; -0.15; optionable): Chinese internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/china.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Surged Thursday on strong volume in its 6 month base but then volume trailed off the past two sessions as it continues in the handle to the base. Still a nice pattern and getting a bit more rest here. Will be patient and let it show another high volume move that is holding toward the close.
Volume: 4.09M Avg Volume: 4.181M
BUY POINT: $11.84 Volume=5.1M Target=$14.32 Stop=$10.98
POSITION: UIH FB - June $10c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/china.html
Play Date: 01/15/2004
DFIB (Cardiac Science--$4.74; 0; no options): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dfib.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was up Tuesday as DFIB started to rally toward the breakout from its 15 week base. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) in the pattern with surging money flow and volume that has really swelled the past three weeks. Those are setting up this great base, and a further move on volume is the entry we are looking for.
Volume: 1.344M Avg Volume: 845.318K
BUY POINT: $4.83 Volume=1.2M Target=$5.85 Stop=$4.49
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dfib.html
Play Date: 01/14/2004
SYKE (Sykes Enterprises--$9.91; 0; optionable): Information technology software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syke.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. SYKE started moving higher out of a very short handle to a 10 week base, but volume was microscopic. No strength behind that move so we sat on our hands and decided to wait to see if we see more volume in the coming session. A nice, crisp base that formed over the 50 day MVA (8.79) and shows 2 to 1 accumulation. Monye flow is surging up ahead of price, so we wait to see if price follows and volume cranks up as it does.
Volume: 79.748K Avg Volume: 197.863K
BUY POINT: $9.88 Volume=285K Target=$11.85 Stop=$9.19
POSITION: YKQ CB - Mar. $10c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/syke.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: We will to look at the stocks in the best patterns for entry points moving into the potential split announcements. We are researching the next date on those that did not announce but are still very strong. Some companies are still gun-shy about announcing splits, but one of the things we love about split plays is that they involve market leaders that make us good money even if they do not announce.
ACV: January 1-22-04 before the open. The annual shareholder meeting is on the same date. Needs to stem the tide here at some support at 60.
APOL: Forecast 3-24-04 or with the 2-27-04 board meeting. Neither confirmed yet.
BCR: Forecast 1-27-04. What a move underway!
DE: Forecast 2-14-04.
DCOM: 1-22-04 after the close. Trying to tighten up ahead of earnings.
DNA: Forecast 1-14-04. No split but still moving higher.
GGG: Forecast 1-22-04. Still in the very flat move at the 18 day MVA.
GILD: Forecast 1-29-04
IRM: Forecast 2-27-04
LEA: Forecast 1-26-04
LXK: Forecast 1-26-04 before the open.
MBG: Researching new date.
MBT: Researching date.
MGAM: Forecast 1-28-04 before the open.
NSIT: Forecast 1-30-04.
OSI: Forecast 2-11-04. Forming a new base with the bottom at the 50 day MVA.
RESP: Forecast 1-22-04 before the open. Imploded Friday.
SHFL: Forecast 2-19-04 with earnings.
SONC: Forecast 1-24-04 in conjunction with its shareholder meeting.
SOV: Forecast 1-20-04 with earnings. Sank lower ahead of earnings but then beat estimates and was trading up after hours. No split announced as SOV was apparently not ready to announce just yet given this is the first time it has reached back to split prices since the big correction. We will see how it responds tomorrow to the good earnings that had it higher after hours.
UOPX: Forecast 3-24-03 with earnings.
VAR: Forecast 1-28-04 after the close or 2-19 in conjunction with its shareholder meeting.
VIP: Forecast 3-26-04. Starting a big move higher.
VRTS: Forecast 1-28-04 after the close.
WFMI: Forecast 2-11-04. Disappointing gap down.
XTO: Forecast 2-18-04 in conjunction with earnings.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 01/20/2004
FOSL (Fossil--$29.51; +0.18; no options): Watches, clothes, etc. Forecast 2-24-04 with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Three 3:2 splits in the past, the most recent in June 2002 at a price right at $30.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fosl.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume is ramping higher as FOSL tries to make the breakout from a 9 week base showing solid 3:1 accumulation. Friday FOSL moved over the high in the short handle, but Tuesday is when the volume shot higher. It stalled again at 29.81 on the intraday high, so we are looking for it to clear that level on stronger trade to enter. Retail has quietly crept back up, and with a $100B in tax refunds ready to start hitting pockets this quarter, they are anticipating another rise in consumer spending.
Volume: 598.222K Avg Volume: 199.772K
BUY POINT: $29.92 Volume=300K Target=$35 Stop=$28.32
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fosl.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 12/20/2003
GGG (Graco--$40; +0.04; optionable): Fluid control for a wide range of products including toys. Forecast to announce a split on 1-22-04 after the close in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5/6/03 at a stock price of $43.20
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ggg.html
STATUS: Flat base. Still working laterally in a tight range for the past 6 weeks after gapping higher in mid-December. Still waiting; this one requires a lot of patience. As it has not made the move to this point we may just wait for the results and see if gives us the breakout and split that adds momentum.
Volume: 77.9K Avg Volume: 123.727K
BUY POINT: $40.55 Volume=200K Target=$48.75 Stop=$39.42
POSITION: GGG EH - May $40c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ggg.html
Play Date: 01/17/2004
GILD (Gilead Sciences--$63.55; +0.16; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 1-29-04 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 1-30-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $65.42. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-21-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gild.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulder. Volume dried up Tuesday and GILD stalled in its breakout attempt from its 15 week pattern that is part of a larger 6 month cup base. Just being patient and letting it make the break over 64 on a strong shot of volume.
Volume: 2.759M Avg Volume: 3.739M
BUY POINT: $64.12 Volume=5M Target=$73.75 Stop=$63
POSITION: GDQ EM - May $65c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gild.html
Play Date: 01/17/2004
IRM (Iron Mountain--$41.28; -0.12; optionable): Document storage. Forecast to announce a split on 2-27-04 in conjunction with earnings. This date has not been confirmed, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 12-6-01 at a stock price of $45.58. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-22-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized, but company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/irm.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still making the test of its explosive breakout from an 8 month base to start the year. Volume edged higher but was still well below average on the session. Accumulation is a solid 8 to 4, setting up a good breakout and foundation for a good run. Again the first test of strong breakout from a solid base is an excellent time to move into a position. Being patient and letting the pullback complete and then break higher.
Volume: 189.6K Avg Volume: 313.045K
BUY POINT: $42.22 Volume=492K Target=$50.72 Stop=$41.25
POSITION: IRM GH - July $40c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/irm.html
Play Date: 01/03/2004
MBT (Mobile Telesys--$90.9; +3.8; optionable): Russian wireless communications
BACKGROUND: No splits in its past, and a foreign stock as well. That does not mean it won't split, but it is harder to predict. What we do like is the pattern and its leadership status; it can make us nice gains without announcing a split, and when it comes, all the better.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mbt.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Now MBT is cooking. Tuesday it jumped on rising, above average volume, taking out the prior closing highs in the base in the start of another good breakout. This move comes on the heels of a 14 week base sporting excellent 4 to 1 accumulation. Still a buy on this strong move.
Volume: 295.9K Avg Volume: 252.409K
BUY POINT: New: $91.18 (orig. $88.39) Volume=412K Target=$99.95 Stop=$84.55
POSITION: MBT FQ - June $85c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mbt.html
Play Date: 11/22/2003
SHFL (Shuffle Master--$36.45; +0.19; optionable): Gaming machines (card shufflers, etc.). Forecast to announce a split on 2-19-04 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-1-01 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $31.80. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-12-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shfl.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. An excellent breakout test, the second since SHFL shot higher in mid-December as it broke out of a 15 week cup with handle base. Stocks tend to make 4 to 5 runs up the short term MVA (10 and 18 day MVA). That gives us plenty of upside here. Strong money flow. Showing a nice hammer doji just over the 18 day MVA (35.91), an indication that the pullback is over. Looking for a strong, above average volume bounce to move into new positions.
Volume: 200.434K Avg Volume: 254.772K
BUY POINT: New: $37.12 (orig. $31.47) Volume=425K Target=$37.55 Stop=$35.72
POSITION: SFQ EG - May $35c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/shfl.html
Play Date: 01/10/2004
SONC (Sonic Corp.--$33.30; 0.00; optionable): Forecast to announce a split January 24 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting at 1:30 p.m. CT.
BACKGROUND: SONC last announced a 3:2 split 1-17-02 at its annual shareholder meeting with a stock price of $36.30. A frequent splitter announce roughly every 2 years.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sonc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still in the breakout test, holding over the 10 day MVA (33.27) Tuesday as volume jumped back above average. That can indicate that SONC is ready to move back up, but it will have to show us the move. SONC broke out to start the year and has spent the past two weeks testing the move. A very good test of the breakout from its 7 month cup with handle. Being patient and waiting for the break higher.
Volume: 472.823K Avg Volume: 332.681K
BUY POINT: $34.22. Volume=562K Target=$39.15 Stop=$32.68
POSITION: ZSQ FF - June $30c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sonc.html
POST-SPLIT
Play Date: 12/29/2003
MMSI (Merit Medical Systems--$23.80; +0.70; optionable): Medical instruments.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mmsi.html
STATUS: Cup. MMSI surged to start the year but then faded back to the 18 day MVA (22.89). It has held that level and slid up that level on low, below average volume. Tuesday volume surged back above average as MMSI tried to clear some resistance at the late November high. Looking for another strong volume session to send it over 24 with some authority.
Volume: 409.187K Avg Volume: 263.681K
BUY POINT: New: $24.22 (orig. $22.11) Volume=260K Target=New positions: $28.55 (orig. positions: $26.55) Stop=$22.68
POSITION: RHM DX - Apr. $22.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mmsi.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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