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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those that look ready to move. If the move has been made already we discuss the play in the summary table. The purpose is to focus on the next good movers. New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
Good moves Thursday: DNA; EBAY; NCEN; SNUS; VAR
NEW PLAYS: This section includes new plays from all sections other than pre-announcements.
New Pre-Split:
Play Date: 01/22/2004
ANPI (Angiotech Pharmaceutical--$50.93; +1.93; optionable): Drugs. Splits 2:1 on a date to be announced.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anpi.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Volume was up Thursday as ANPI started toward the breakout from an 18 week base that used the 50 day MVA (46.75) as the floor. We like that because that level is where the big money steps in to support a stock. The base has solid accumulation at 5 to 2 (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume), another indication of big money moving into the stock over the period of the base. Money flow is surging and ANPI is moving up to follow it. Want to see a further volume move to make the breakout and move into the stock.
Volume: 471.736K Avg Volume: 352.045K
BUY POINT: $51.32 Volume=528K Target=$59 Stop=$47.68
POSITION: AUJ FJ - June $50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anpi.html
Play Date: 01/22/2004
NATI (National Instruments--$49.98; +3.92; optionable): Computer peripherals. Splits 3:2 on 2-23-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nati.html
STATUS: Reverse heand and shoulders breakout. After some cold feet ahead of earnings where NATI reached down and tapped the 50 day MVA (45.35) Wednesday and then shot higher Thursday on tremendous volume. A strong move, and with the solid 4 to 2 accumulation in its 9 week base we feel it can continue the break higher. We are looking at opening a position on a further solid volume move, and then complete the buy on a test of this strong breakout move.
Volume: 1.268M Avg Volume: 200K
BUY POINT: $50.12 Volume=300K Target=$57 Stop=$47.22
POSITION: SJQ FJ - June $50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nati.html
Leadership stocks: Maybe not ready for a split, but setting up well for an upside move.
Play Date: 01/22/2004
CENT (Central Garden & Pet--$31.45; 0.00; optionable): Produces & markts branded pet and lawn products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cent.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. CENT is making the test of an explosive breakout from a 6 month flat base. It soared from 28 to 33.50 and has spent the past week coming back on lower volume to test that move, holding over the 10 day MVA (31.04). Thursday volume shot higher as CENT checked up the selling. Excellent money flow supporting the stock, and we are looking for a rebound on continued strong volume to move. Love these breakout tests, and we feel that consumer stocks are going to be strong in Q1 and Q2 as those tax refunds hit consumer bank accounts.
Volume: 377.227K Avg Volume: 113.909K
BUY POINT: $32.06 Volume=200K Target=$38 Stop=$30.88
POSITION: EQH EF - May $30c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cent.html
Play Date: 01/22/2004
CHT (Chunghwa Telecom--$15.50; +0.02; optionable): Chinese wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cht.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working on low, below average volume in a two week handle to a 10 week base. This stock was a new issue in July, and this is a very good looking base sporting 4 to 1 accumulation, showing money has been moving in all through the consolidation. Money flow is leading higher as volume remains low. It is preparing for a breakout and we just have to be patient and let it show the move on strong volume.
Volume: 296.9K Avg Volume: 407.59K
BUY POINT: $15.68 Volume=1.1M Target=$18.85 Stop=$15.12
POSITION: CHT FC - June $15c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cht.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 01/04/2004
ASKJ (Ask Jeeves--$23.04; -0.31; optionable): Internet information
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/askj.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Still testing the breakout, holding over the 10 day MVA (23.10) on continuing low, below average volume. Money flow remains strong, and we really like these first tests of the breakout. Looking for a strong move over 24 on rising, above average volume.
Volume: 1.264M Avg Volume: 2.048M
BUY POINT: New: 24.28 (orig. $20.88) Volume=3.7M Target=New positions: $28 (orig. positions $24.95) Stop=$22.62
POSITION: AUK CD - Mar. $20c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/askj.html
Play Date: 01/08/2004
CHINA (Chinadotcom--$11.33; 0.00; optionable): Chinese internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/china.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CHINA continues to work in its two week lateral handle forming over the 10 day MVA (10.96). This is quite a 7 month base and volume has surged this month. Looks ready to make the move, but it has to show us the volume break higher to get us in.
Volume: 4.711M Avg Volume: 4.222M
BUY POINT: $11.84 Volume=5.1M Target=$14.32 Stop=$10.98
POSITION: UIH FB - June $10c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/china.html
Play Date: 01/21/2004
DVA (Davita--$39.08; -0.62; optionable): Specialized health
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dva.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Took a nice, low volume breather Thursday, easing back toward the 10 day MVA (38.86). A good rest in an selling market, maintaining its solid 11 week base sporting excellent 4 to 1 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume versus 1 down price week on rising volume). It continues to hold over the 50 day MVA (37.95), building pressure toward a breakout over 40.
Volume: 155.2K Avg Volume: 338.318K
BUY POINT: $40.08 Volume=504K Target=$46 Stop=$38.68
POSITION: DVA GH - July $40c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dva.html
Play Date: 01/20/2004
OBAS (Optibase--$8.01; +0.24; no options): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/obas.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A big move on Tuesday and then eased back on below average volume, holding the pattern. Thursday it tapped toward the 18 day MVA (7.41) and then rebounded to post a gain. After that Wednesday reversal it looks ready to move out again from its 7 week base sporting excellent 4 to 0 accumulation.
Volume: 114.026K Avg Volume: 133.954K
BUY POINT: $8.48 Volume=200K Target=$10.22 Stop=$7.89
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/obas.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: We will to look at the stocks in the best patterns for entry points moving into the potential split announcements. We are researching the next date on those that did not announce but are still very strong. Some companies are still gun-shy about announcing splits, but one of the things we love about split plays is that they involve market leaders that make us good money even if they do not announce.
ACV: January 1-22-04 before the open. Held 60 and then announced the split. A nice $2 gain and a lot of volume. Next buy point is over 63.50.
APOL: Forecast 3-24-04 or with the 2-27-04 board meeting.
BCR: Forecast 1-28-04. Taking a breather after a strong move. May give another test ahead of the forecast, and a test of the 10 day would be a good entry point.
DE: Forecast 2-14-04.
DCOM: 1-22-04 after the close. Reported record earnings but restructuring costs hurting it. A nice triangle has formed, and we will see if it can make the breakout over 32.
DNA: Forecast 1-14-04. No split announced but volume running as it extends its move.
GGG: Forecast 1-22-04. Saw no announcement with earnings that were very solid. Looking for it to make the breakout from the flat base over the 50 day MVA.
GILD: Forecast 1-29-04
IRM: Forecast 2-27-04
LEA: Forecast 1-26-04
LXK: Forecast 1-26-04 before the open.
MBG: Researching new date.
MBT: Researching date.
MGAM: Forecast 1-28-04 before the open.
NSIT: Forecast 1-30-04.
OSI: Forecast 2-11-04. Still working on that new base forming at the 50 day MVA.
RESP: Forecast 1-22-04 before the open. 73% rise in income and raised guidance. Gapped it back over the 50 day MVA.
SHFL: Forecast 2-19-04 with earnings.
SONC: Forecast 1-21-04 in conjunction with its shareholder meeting. No announcement but a very good breakout test still.
SOV: Forecast 1-20-04 with earnings. No announcement but holding up well and preparing for a further move.
UOPX: Forecast 3-24-03 with earnings.
VAR: Forecast 1-28-04 after the close or 2-19 in conjunction with its shareholder meeting.
VIP: Forecast 3-26-04.
VRTS: Forecast 1-28-04 after the close.
WFMI: Forecast 2-11-04.
XTO: Forecast 2-18-04 in conjunction with earnings.
We are putting full write-ups of those pre-announcement stocks that are ready to make moves. As the other pre-announcement candidates reach new buy points we will put them on as well. We want to keep the report focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 01/22/2004
ELAB (Eon Labs--$57.58; +1.34; optionable): Drugs. Forecast to announce a split on 2-19-04 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date, but based upon our research this is the day for the announcement.
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research, it does not appear that ELAB has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-15-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/elab.html
STATUS: Breakout. After a very volatile start to the month, ELAB has posted a strong comeback, racing higher to clear the December consolidation high (55), moving laterally, and then breaking higher again Thursday on rising, above average volume. Excellent money flow and in a sector that money is rotating to. Looking to move in on a further volume move.
Volume: 466.19K Avg Volume: 332.909K
BUY POINT: $57.94 Volume=499K Target=$66.65 Stop=$54.88
POSITION: ESQ DK - Apr. $55c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/elab.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 01/20/2004
FOSL (Fossil--$30.03; +0.05; no options): Watches, clothes, etc. Forecast 2-24-04 with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Three 3:2 splits in the past, the most recent in June 2002 at a price right at $30.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fosl.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still looking to move into FOSL but volume was lower Thursday as it rallied over 30 (30.50 on the high) and then faded on the close. Still very solid in its 10 week base showing solid 3:1 accumulation. Just looking for a stronger volume move over 30 that holds up to the close. Nice base and we expect retail to keep moving up.
Volume: 314.773K Avg Volume: 210.045K
BUY POINT: New: $30.38 (orig. $29.92) Volume=300K Target=$35 Stop=$28.32
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fosl.html
Play Date: 01/17/2004
GILD (Gilead Sciences--$65.2; -0.17; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 1-29-04 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 1-30-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $65.42. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-21-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gild.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulder. Solid move Wednesday on strong volume, then took a lower volume breather Thursday as the market pulled back. Biotechs are another sector that is shaping up well, and GILD is still a buy on this move when it starts the next volume surge.
Volume: 3.271M Avg Volume: 3.723M
BUY POINT: New: 66.55 (orig. $65.58) Volume=5M Target=$75.25 Stop=$62.28
POSITION: GDQ EM - May $65c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gild.html
Play Date: 01/17/2004
IRM (Iron Mountain--$41.35; +0.15; optionable): Document storage. Forecast to announce a split on 2-27-04 in conjunction with earnings. This date has not been confirmed, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 12-6-01 at a stock price of $45.58. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-22-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized, but company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/irm.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. IRM is getting ready to make its rebound as volume has edged higher the last two sessions as it tapped the 18 day MVA (41.02) and started back up Thursday. Nice test of the breakout from its 8 month base sporting solid 8 to 4 accumulation. Outstanding money flow and ready to move.
Volume: 267.7K Avg Volume: 304.909K
BUY POINT: $42.22 Volume=492K Target=$50.72 Stop=$41.25
POSITION: IRM GH - July $40c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/irm.html
Play Date: 11/22/2003
SHFL (Shuffle Master--$36.08; -0.07; optionable): Gaming machines (card shufflers, etc.). Forecast to announce a split on 2-19-04 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 5-1-01 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $31.80. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-12-03 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shfl.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Much like IRM, SHFL is making a nice test of the breakout, holding over the 18 day MVA (35.95) with a nice doji. This is the second test of the 18 day MVA on this breakout and strong stocks tend to make 4 to 5 such bounces after a breakout. Looks ready to start the next bounce higher.
Volume: 174.349K Avg Volume: 251.227K
BUY POINT: New: $37.12 (orig. $31.47) Volume=425K Target=$37.55 Stop=$35.72
POSITION: SFQ EG - May $35c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/shfl.html
Play Date: 01/10/2004
SONC (Sonic Corp.--$32.83; -0.67; optionable): No split announced with the January 21 annual shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: SONC last announced a 3:2 split 1-17-02 at its annual shareholder meeting with a stock price of $36.30. A frequent splitter announce roughly every 2 years.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sonc.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. Did not announce Wednesday, and SONC slid a bit lower Thursday, falling to the 18 day MVA on slightly higher though still below average volume. Still a good test of the explosion higher on the stellar earnings and outlook. If it holds the 18 day MVA and can bounce on more volume, we will move in. Still a solid play and looking for that rebound to move in.
Volume: 250.223K Avg Volume: 316.636K
BUY POINT: $34.22. Volume=562K Target=$39.15 Stop=$32.68
POSITION: ZSQ FF - June $30c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sonc.html
PRE-SPLIT
Play Date: 01/22/2004
PCAR (Paccar--$83.09; -0.37; optionable): Trucks. Splits 3:2 on 2-6-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcar.html
STATUS: 50 day MVA test. PCAR is forming a handle to a 4 month cup base, using the 50 day MVA (82.85) as support. It showed a hammer doji Thursday as volume started to move back up; that indicates a bounce coming. It tested the 10 and 18 day MVA on the high (84.48) and fell back. That is the level we want to see it clear when it makes its move, but it looks solid on this test. We are looking to options to leverage our way in as we often do with higher priced pre-splits; we can get a great return with a smaller move in the stock.
Volume: 739K Avg Volume: 850K
BUY POINT: $84.75 Volume=1M Target=$92 Stop=$82.72
POSITION: PAQ EQ - May $85c (44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pcar.html
Play Date: 01/17/2004
WGO (Winnebago--$74.48; +0.35; optionable): Motor homes. Splits 2:1 on 3-8-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wgo.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. After a nice breakout from the 3 week base it stalled at 75 and gapped lower Thursday. It held the 10 day MVA on the low (71.31) and then surged higher on strong volume. Looks ready to continue the move, and on a break over 75 we will move in with more positions.
Volume: 711.3K Avg Volume: 259.227K
BUY POINT: New: 75.12 (orig. $73.38) Volume=325K Target=$79 Stop=$70.36
POSITION: WGO DN - Apr. $70c (60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wgo.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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