stock watch, stock split

Begin Part 2 of 3

FISV (Fiserv--$63.18; +1.57; optionable): We are working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fisv.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 3-25-99 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting. The stock price was $52. FISV's last two splits were announced in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting. The company currently has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: FISV has made a very strong, sustained bounce back up from its 50 day MVA (57.47). The stock had broken out from an ascending wedge formed over a cup with handle (breakout high 64.63), but made an abrupt drop back to its 50 day as the initial breakout failed. The recover has been steady, however, and on consistently solid volume (down today to 1.15 million; average 1.04 million). Looking for more, as relative strength has broken out. Target on a breakout: 73.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 63.50 on increased volume. Stop: 59.06. Breakout: Over 64.63 on increased volume. Stop: 60.10.
POSITION: Both buy points: Stock and/or September $60 calls to buy (FTQ IL).

DFXI (Direct Focus--$45.63; +3.63; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 7-17-01 after the market close in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dfxi.html
BACKGROUND: A frequent splitter, it last announced a 3:2 split on 12-12-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $44. Prior to that announced a 3:2 split on 6-28-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $44. See a pattern here? The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-4-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: A very solid stock that has performed well, and is proving to be a consistent splitter. It broke from a cup (and subsequent ascending wedge) recently and has made two solid surges, hitting 48 on its last move before pulling back. It reached down intraday Wednesday to test its 50 day MVA (38.90) but made a strong recovery on good volume to close with a doji. Today it continued up, moving back over its short-term MVA's (10 and 18 day at 44.06 & 43.17, respectively) to close. However, volume dipped back below average at 288,900 (average 325,800). The forecast is Tuesday, and we will he stock can continue its move toward the high. 55.
BUY POINT: From here: A move over 46 on above average volume. Stop: 42.78. Breakout: Over 48 on above average volume. Stop: 44.64.
POSITION: From here: Stock and/or August and October $40 calls to buy (DQF HH and DQF JH). Breakout: Stock and/or August and October $45 calls to buy (DQF HI and DQF JI).

MNC (Monaco--$28.12; -0.03; optionable): Automotive. Forecast to announce a split on 7-26-01 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company has not confirmed a time for the release.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mnc.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 6-7-99 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $34.75. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-17-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: The stock has split several times in the 30's, and with a continuation of this move could be ready to announce again. It broke out of a large cup pattern at the end of June (prior high 30.94 in August 1999), surging up to 33.20 with a great move before pulling back. It is currently holding the 18 day MVA (27.71) and late-June high, showing tightening patterns (second consecutive doji today). Volume spiked up to 155,400 today (average 88,200), so this one could be ready to take off. Excellent buying.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A bounce back over 29 on continued strong volume. Stop: 26.97.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $25 calls to buy (MNC JE - but very low open interest).

PRE-SPLIT BEST PLAYS: Remember, we try to grab these as they break out of good patterns or as they start a run right before the split. Not looking for home runs, but looking for those $3 to $4 moves running into the split, watching for topping signs and potential resistance. Not huge money, but it can be very steady. We set our initial stops at the 7-8% range below the purchase price (or just below obvious support), and move them up on a move to preserve our profits.
1) HRB - Looks ready
2) RAVN - Could finally make a move

HRB (H&R Block--$66.29; +0.55; optionable): Tax services. Splits 2:1 August 1.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hrb.html
STATUS: Recently broke from a 22-month cup with handle, and after testing that break with a long, lateral consolidation, it broke out again early last week with a solid move. Since then it has pulled back a bit to test the move, finding support at its 10 day MVA (65.92) and breakout point (65.50). Yesterday we saw a higher volume doji above support followed by another test today of the 18 day (65.13) at its low, on sharply increased volume (860,500, average 551,800), before closing just above the 10 day. Both moves indicate the stock may be preparing to make another run. The recent high is 69.60.
PLAY: From here, a move up over $67.50 on continued strong volume, with stock and/or October $65 calls to buy (HRB JM).

RAVN (Raven Ind--$26.95; +0.40; no options): Textile Manufacturing. Splits 3:2 effective July 16. Thinly traded, but we had good success with these this year.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/ravn.html
STATUS: RAVN finally has gotten a bit of volume, relatively speaking (up to 3600 today; average 5600 but we have seen it as low as 100 recently), and after making a quick trip down to its 18 day MVA (26.65) it moved back up off of that level today. It remains in the range of its long, tight lateral consolidation, a promising pattern but we are down to one day before the split. We will see if it can make a decent move, although again, the lack of liquidity is a concern and we will watch for more volume. High is 28.
PLAY: On a move over $27.10 on average or better volume, stock.

CONTINUING CANDIDATE BEST PLAYS:
1) CBH - Big gap on the breakout
2) ASFC - Looking to finally sustain a move
3) KMP - Tough sector, but looking good

CBH (Commerce Bancorp--$74.00; +2.40; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbh.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 5:4 split on 6-29-98. The stock price was $54.63. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-20-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has insufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: After looking pretty good in a small saucer with handle pattern, CBH announced strong earnings yesterday before the open, and enjoyed a solid move up on sharply increased volume (349,000, average 147,100). The solid move continued today, albeit on lower volume (133,300) as the stock gapped open and climbed up to close well above the handle high of 72.90. The stock is still a buy up to $76.55, and we are looking for a further move up, but we want volume to return. We could see a bit of profit-taking, and if so we will look for the stock to hold the 72 range and make a move back up with stronger volume. Money flow is excellent. Target: 80.
BUY POINT: Still a buy up to $76.55 on average or stronger volume. Stop: 68.82. Pullback: A move up on average or better volume after a lower-volume pullback holds the 72 range. Stop: 66.97.
POSITION: Both buy points: Stock and/or September $70 calls to buy (CBH ).

ASFC (Astoria Financial--$59.40; +0.66; optionable): Savings and Loan.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asfc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split its stock in 1996 with the split at a price of $56. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-16-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Finally making a sustained move up. The stock has experienced volatility and difficulty with the 58.50 level, but over the past week has made a solid breakout. Volume has tapered back a bit but today remained well above the average of 361,400 (today 412,700) as the stock hit 59.75 before retreating a bit to close. From this move the stock could need to rest, so we will see if it test the 59 level, looking for it to hold the 58.50 mark. If it can, we are looking for a strong move back up from there. Target: 65.
BUY POINT: From here: Over 59.75 on increased volume. Stop: 55.57. Pullback: After a lower-volume pullback holds the 59 level, a move back up from there on increased volume. Stop: 54.87.
POSITION: Both buy points: Stock and/or October $55 calls to buy (AQR JK).

KMP (Kinder Morgan--$71.06; +0.01):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmp.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that KMP has ever split its stock. KMP is a master limited partnership and therefore does not have annual shareholder meetings.
STATUS: The stock has made a decent move back up from its recent range at the 50 day MVA (69.28), forming a small saucer and then pulling into a handle the last week. It has shown progressively tighter dojis the last three sessions, holding strong over its 10 day MVA (70.72). Volume edged up today to 88,600, well below the average of 125,800. A nice pattern, so we will see if the stock can make a solid breakout move. Showing good relative strength. Target: 82.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 72.43 on volume of 190,000. Stop: 67.36.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $70 calls (KMP FN).

POST-SPLIT BEST PLAYS:
1) LH - Making a move in its handle
2) GENZ - Could bounce
3) CAKE - Moving up after the breakout test

LH (Laboratory Corp--$81.31; +2.74; optionable): Health Services. Split 2:1 June 11.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lh.html
STATUS: After its recent split, LH has held on nicely in a handle to the cup that has been forming since the beginning of the year. Within the handle, the stock has pulled back to test its 50 day MVA (74.97) in late June, and since has pushed up along its short-term MVA's (18 day at 78.18). The stock is trying to break out, pushing up strong Tuesday but pulling back the next session, but trying again today on lower volume of 461,000 (average is 477,900). We are still looking for a clear breakout on significantly higher volume. Relative strength is looking good, and money flow remains strong.
PLAY: Breakout: 82.63 on volume of 717,000 with stock and/or August $80 calls to buy (LH HP). Stop: 76.85.

GENZ (Genzyme--$56.24; -1.09; optionable): Split 2:1 effective 6-4-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
STATUS: Biotechnology. Broke out on the last session of June, but closed well off of its intraday high of 64 (closing high 61) and subsequently has made a steady pullback. It was holding its 18 day MVA (56.70), but today tested its 50 day MVA (54.42) at its low, but made a solid rebound on good volume (up to 4.62 million; average 2.95 million) to close with a doji. The stock has been solid, and has consistently used the 50 day for good moves up. We will look for a move up off of this doji and toward the high. Our target on the initial breakout was 65. Excellent money flow and decent buying.
PLAY: Aggressive: Over the 10 day MVA (57.27) on continued strong volume. Stop: 53.26.

CAKE (Cheesecake Factory--$27.97; +1.08; optionable): Restaurant. Splits 3:2 effective 6-19-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cake.html
STATUS: Finally made a strong move after testing its breakout with four consecutive dojis over the 10 day MVA (26.97). CAKE gapped up to open and continued the move, running on sharply higher volume (411,100, just above the average). The breakout high is just ahead at 28.50. Target: 33.
PLAY: Breakout: Over 28.50 on increased volume, with stock and/or October $25 calls to buy (CFQ JE). Stop: 26.50.
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PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS REMAINING PLAYS
* * *
ADVS (Advent Software--$53.54; +2.04; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 7-17-01 after the close in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/advs.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 2-17-00 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $80. Prior to that announced a 3:2 split on 7-13-99 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $75. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-3-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Was moving nicely in the handle to nine-month cup with handle pattern, but took a severe drop last week. Now the 200 day MVA (53.16) is providing significant resistance, as the stock fell through that level on Monday, and since then, has made two failed attempts to rally back up through it. Today the stock managed to close just above the 200 day on slightly above average volume (644,700, average 568,200). We have been looking at this one as a put, but with more strength in the Nasdaq we will see if the stock can make a decent move up going toward the forecast. We will look at positions early next week. Nothing for Friday.

ELN (Elan--$59.60; -3.25; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 7-18-01 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed this date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eln.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 3-2-99 in conjunction with a board of director meeting. The stock price was $76.88. Prior to that announced a 3:2 split on 8-15-96 at a stock price of $63.
STATUS: ELN made a promising move on Wednesday, running up in its pennant pattern on good volume, but abruptly reversed today, falling back through its short-term MVA's (10 day at 60.87) and up trendline (connecting April-June closing lows, at 61) to close in the lower range of its recent range. The stock formed the pennant after having recently broken from a cup with handle, hitting a high of 65. We will see if the stock can hold onto this level or the 50 day, just below at 58.20, for a run back up going into next week's forecast.
BUY POINT: After holding 50 day MVA, a move back over 62 on above average volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or October $60 calls to buy (ELN JL).

THQI (THQ Inc.--$59.72; +1.72; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 7-20-01 in conjunction with the shareholder meeting (earnings 7-26-01).
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thqi.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 10-26-99 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $44. Prior to that announced a 3:2 split on 7-23-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $33. The annual shareholder meeting is on 7-20-01 at which time authorized shares will be increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: THQI made a bit of a move back up with the market today, but after gapping up it could not make much of a move, lacking volume (down to 436,500; average 579,200). The stock has been on a steady run up along its short-term MVA's (10 & 18 day at 57.58 and 56.48, respectively) since breaking from a cup with handle way back in January, and has been due for a test of its 50 day MVA (51.25). However, it has continued to move well, although the last couple of weeks it has pulled into a lateral consolidation. We will look for it to continue the consolidation, perhaps testing the 50 day as we go toward the forecast next week.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move over 60 on increased volume near the average. Stop: 55.80.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or September $55 calls to buy (QHI IK).

CHV (Chevron--$89.06; +1.39; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 7-24-01 before the open in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm the date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chv.html
BACKGROUND: The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-25-01 at which time authorized shares were increased.
STATUS: CHV has taken a hard fall with its sector, making a couple of decent put plays. Today it bounced back up from its 200 day MVA (87.50), moving on continued solid volume (that has been rather steady, today at 2.62 million; average 2.3 million). We are not looking for much to the upside from here, and below the 200 day there is some possible support at the 86 level. No positions for Friday.

CEFT (Concord EFS--$59.24; +2.25; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 7-25-01 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm this date, but based upon our research this is the date for the release.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceft.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 8-26-99 at a stock price of $37. Prior to that announced a 3:2 split on 5-14-98 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-24-01 at 9:30 am CST at which time additional shares will be authorized.
STATUS: After settling down a bit from the erratic movements it showed after a breakout (from a cup with handle) in June, the stock blasted up Wednesday and continued the move today. A good breakout, and although volume was down today it was still above average at 3.6 million (average 3.42 million). It is technically still a buy up to 59.78 (5% past the breakout), but we will need to see increased volume on a move up. We could see some profit-taking, and we would also look at positions on a move back up after a lower-volume pullback that holds 57-58.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 59.50 (a buy up to 59.78) with increased volume. Stop: 55.34. Pullback: A move up on increased volume after a lower-volume pullback that holds 57-58. Stop: 53-54.
PLAY: Both buy points: Stock and/or September $55 calls to buy (CQF IK).

BRO (Brown & Brown--$46.15; +1.56; no options): Insurance Brokers. Forecast to announce a split on 7-25-01 in conjunction with a board meeting. At this time the company has not confirmed the date of the board meeting.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bro.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 7-26-00 in conjunction with its regularly scheduled board meeting. The stock price was $48. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-18-01 at which time authorized shares were increased.
STATUS: The stock has made a solid move up this week, and today gapped up to break out of its saucer pattern and to a new high. Volume was huge again at 278,100 (average 37,200), but the stock could not continue the move after gapping up, closing with a loose doji. Off of this pattern we could see a pullback, and we will look for that to hold Wednesday's high of 45.32 (closing high 44.60). Target: 49.
BUY POINT: A move back over 46 after a lower-volume pullback that holds the 45 range. Stop: 42.78.
POSITION: Stock only.

ACS (ACS Inc.--$74.88; +1.73; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 7-31-01 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acs.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in October 1996 at a stock price of $60. The annual shareholder meeting was on 10-26-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Has been trending up solidly the past year, making a new high at 55 in December and continuing up along its 50 day MVA, hitting a high of 77.68 in June. It dipped back from there but held its May consolidation range (just below its 50 day MVA at 72.20), and after creeping back the last few sessions the stock made a strong move today. It cleared its short-term MVA's (10 day at 73.14), moving on increased, strong volume of 477,400 (average 450,000). Looking for the momentum to continue. Target on breakout: 90.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move over 75.25 on increased volume. Stop: 70. Breakout: 77.80 on increased volume. Stop: 72.54.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or October $70 calls to buy (ACS GN). Breakout: Stock and/or October $75 calls to buy (ACS GO).

ATK (Alliant Techsystems--$91.64; +3.69; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 8-7-01 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atk.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 11-2-00 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $89. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 8-7-01 at 2:00 pm CT at which time additional shares will be authorized.
STATUS: After a big drop from a double top (recent high at 101.24), the stock found support in the 85 range and has shown some double bottom action. The last couple of sessions it has made impressive moves up, although they have laced much volume (up to 132,900 today; average 168,500). It closed back over its 50 day MVA (91.22) today, a positive sign, but we will need to see something more sustained and with bigger volume. We will see if it can hold this move. If not, we could be looking at a put play back down.
BUY POINT: Upside momentum: A move over 95 on above average volume. Stop: 88.35. Downside: A drop back through the 18 day MVA (currently 89.40) with above average volume. We are initially targeting the recent lows at 84-85 on the play.
POSITION: Upside: Stock and/or November $90 calls to buy (ATK KR - low open interest). Downside: August $100 puts to buy (ATK TT).

NVDA (Nvidia--$82.67; +4.12; optionable): Semiconductor. Forecast to announce a split on 8-15-01 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting or on 8-13-01 during the market in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced 5-16-00 after the close with earnings. Price was at $94, but the stock rose $8.74 that day in anticipation.
STATUS: NVDA had made a very solid run over the past several months, but after topping at 100 it made a gradual pullback to the 50 day MVA (85.28) and then tanked through that support last week. It caught itself in the range of its May lows, and gave the expected bounce today, but after gapping up it could only show a doji just under the resistance of its 10 day MVA (83.51). We will see if a stronger market move can get the stock over stiff resistance (18 day is also ahead at 85.88), but we are still looking at a failure and a possible play back down to the 70 range (March highs, 200 day MVA at 65.16).
BUY POINT: Strong selling back down below 80 on above average volume (up to 4.09 million today; average 4.65 million). A weak market would make a safer play.
POSITION: August $95 puts to buy (RVU TS).

End Part 2 of 3

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