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stock option, Breakout test
Beign part 2 of 3
THE PLAYS
Plays from the Monday report:
CBST: Went the other way, messing up a nice breakout test.
DUSA: Huge volume breakout.
QTWW: Still in the pattern, taking a low volume day off.
RTEC: Workign on the breakout test with a lower volume session at the 18 day MVA.
New Plays:
Downside:
Play Date: 01/27/2004
NSM (National Semiconductor--$36.73; -1.57; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nsm.html
STATUS: Put. Chips are in trouble with SOX and SMH at the 50 day MVA. Key components are leading lower already, including NSM that tried to hold the line at 37.50 support but failed with a higher volume breakdown Tuesday. It double topped in November and December, made a lower high two weeks back, and then fell through the 50 day MVA (39.67). We are not looking for a total breakdown from this stock but will play it as it works lower toward the bottom of a new base then we will exit with our gain.
Volume: 4.101M Avg Volume: 3.358M
BUY POINT: $36.55 Volume=4M Target=$33 Stop=$38.55
POSITION: NSM OH - Mar. $40p (-70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nsm.html
Upside:
Play Date: 01/27/2004
AVGN (Avigen--$7.18; +0.28; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avgn.html
STATUS: Cup. AVGN is starting to surge higher in its 12 week base, moving up off of the 50 day MVA (6.28) on a solid rise in above average volume. Accumulation in the base is a strong 4 to 1 (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume). That shows money moving into the stock even as it formed the base. The fact that it held on the 50 day MVA on the lows also indicates solid support for the stock at that key support level. Money flow has turned up and the stock is starting to make its move. We will look at taking some positions on a further strong volume move. It may then form a handle before another breakout. Moving well in a good sector.
Volume: 123.389K Avg Volume: 95.09K
BUY POINT: $7.38 Volume=150K Target=$9.22 Stop=$6.86
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/avgn.html
Play Date: 01/27/2004
GEMS (Glenayre Technologies--$4.09; -0.11; no options): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gems.html
STATUS: Testing the breakout. GEMS formed a 10 week reverse head and shoulders from November to early December, then broke out two weeks back. Accumulation in the pattern is a strong 5 to 3, showing there were buyers in accumulating the stock even as it consolidated. It has shown some mega volume spikes on up sessions, the latest on Monday as it drove higher off the 10 day MVA (3.74). Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout to go along with the price breakout, a good indication of the strength of the move. It spent Tuesday pulling back on some lighter volume, and it may come back a bit more toward the last high at 3.95, but we will be ready of takes off again from here.
Volume: 1.232M Avg Volume: 512.181K
BUY POINT: $4.22 Volume=1.4M Target=$5.25 Stop=$3.92
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gems.html
Play Date: 01/27/2004
NANX (Nanophase Technologies--$13.20; +1.47; optionable): Nanocrystalline materials
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nanx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. NANX exploded out of a 3.5 month reverse head and shoulders in early January, screaming up to just over 14 on some hefty volume. It has spent the past two weeks pulling back to test the move, coming back to the 18 day MVA (11.90) this week and then exploding higher Tuesday on tremendous volume. Money flow is again screaming higher ahead of price. We are looking to move in on anogher volume move higher,
Volume: 2.353M Avg Volume: 507.409K
BUY POINT: $13.62 Volume=1M Target=$16.42 Stop=$12.67
POSITION: NSY FV - June $12.50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nanx.html
End part 2 of 3
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stock option
Breakout test
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