stock watch, stock split

Begin Part 3 of 3

BJ (BJ Wholesale--$54.40; +1.32; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 8-21-01 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm this date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bj.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 2-4-99 at a stock price of $44. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-24-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for 2:1 split.
STATUS: Broke out today, moving out of an ascending wedge formed since mid-June. Volume was solid breakout volume (1.04 million; average 665,000), and BJ is still a buy up to 57.75. The stock has been very strong, breaking from a cup with handle in February, and then surging again after a March-May pullback. Target: 62.
BUY POINT: Over 55.76 on continued strong volume. Stop: 51.86 (50 day MVA at 50.40).
POSITION: Stock and/or September $50 calls to buy (BJ IJ).

ADVP (AdvancePCS--$62.11; +3.10; optionable): Health services. We are working on a date for this one.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/advp.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 10-12-99 at a stock price of $50. The annual shareholder meeting was on 12-7-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company does not have sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split, but does have sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
STATUS: After a steady 2-week drop, ADVP saw a strong move up on greatly increased volume of 1.02 million (average 730,200). Yesterday, the stock bounced up from the June low to close just under the 50 day MVA (59.78). Today the move picked up where it left off, climbing another 5%. The 2-day move, relative strength and money flow are all strong, and we will watch for a further move up on continued strong volume. However, the stock has shown quite a bit of volatility, and the new government senior prescription program could add to that. Consequently, although we do not like to whipsaw between up and downside plays, we will also watch for resistance in a down trendline drawn from mid-May through late-June highs to send the stock on another down leg in a descending wedge pattern.
BUY POINT: Aggressive momentum: Over the down trendline (at 63) on continued strong volume. Stop: 58.59.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $60 calls (QVD IL) to buy.

PRE-SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS: With these stocks we keep an eye out, waiting for the start of a pre-split run.

ING (Ing Groep--$64.55; -0.64; optionable): Life Insurance. Splits 2:1 effective July 13.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ing.html
STATUS: After a couple of decent move, ING was a disappointment the last several sessions going into the split. Today it gapped down, and on a move up could not make up all of the drop, moving on weaker volume (60,300; average 101,500). No new positions.

KG (King Pharmaceuticals--$56.30; +2.65; optionable): Splits 4:3 on or about July 19.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kg.html
STATUS: Made a strong move up, actually hitting the breakout point in its second handle to a cup (prior high 57.88) with great volume (4.35 million; average 1.13 million). However, it could not hold the move, dropping back from its intraday high of 58.50. The close well off the intraday high indicates a pullback, and we will look for it to hold the 55 level for another try.
PLAY: A move back up on strong volume after a lower-volume pullback that holds 55, with stock and/or August $50 calls to buy (KG HJ). Breakout: 58.63 on minimum volume of 1.6 million, with stock and/or August $55 calls to buy (KG HK).

TARO (Taro Pharmaceutical--$78.36; -4.90; optionable: Drugs. Splits 2:1 July 27.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/taro.html
STATUS: Broke out from a cup with handle last October and has increased more than fourfold since. In late June, the stock reached a high of 90.50, but has pulled back and is trying to consolidate along its short-term MVA's, but today took a hard fall back through those levels (10 & 18 day MVA's at 81.76 and 80.24, respectively). There is some support at 75 from early June levels, and the 50 day MVA is back at 70.54; strong trending stocks pull back to test their 50 day MVA's from time to time. We will see if it can find support for another move.
PLAY: Aggressive: After showing that it has support at 75, a move back up on continued strong volume, with stock and/or August $70 calls to buy (QTT HN).

BMET (Biomet--$46.00; +0.54; optionable): Medical equipment. Got the announcement, as forecast! Splits 3:2 on or about August 6.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmet.html
STATUS: BMET tanked going into its split announcement after having made a steady, strong move, but found support under its 50 day MVA (44.65) at May levels, pushing back up the past two sessions. After a strong rebound Wednesday the stock continued up today, but the gain was smaller and volume diminished, although still above average at 1.68 million (average 1.56 million). The move saw the stock close over its 18 day MVA (45.77). Strictly momentum now (as most pre-splits are) trying to make it back to its high of 49.18.
PLAY: Aggressive: Over 47 on increased volume, with stock and/or October $45 calls to buy (BIQ JI).

CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.

ACF (Americredit--$58.71; +2.39; optionable): Credit Services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acf.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-18-98 at a stock price of $35. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-7-00 at which time no authorized shares were increased. The company does not have sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split, but does have sufficient shares for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: ACF has been a tremendous performer, rising almost fourfold in the past 12 months. Today, ACF continued its breakout of a small ascending wedge handle to a small cup pattern on very strong volume (1.59 million; average is 1.06 million). We do not like to chase a stock past its 5% breakout range (57.75), so we will watch for a low volume pullback on some profit-taking, and a move back up from a test of the breakout and nearby 10 day MVA (54.76) to take new positions. Target: 62-63.
BUY POINT: After a test of the breakout (55), a move back up on continued strong volume. Stop: 51.15.
POSITION: Stock and/or August $50 calls to buy (ACF HJ).

CECO (Career Education--$62.77; +2.80; no options):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-1-00 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $57. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 5-11-01 at 1:00 pm CDT at which time additional shares will be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split without increasing authorized shares.
STATUS: The stock has been climbing steadily along its short-term MVA's (10 & 18 day at 59.70 and 58.41, respectively) for the past month, making a steeper trend after having been using its 50 day (54.80) for support. It continued its move today, making another closing high as it jumps from the 10 day, moving on lower, but still solid volume of 232,000 (average 215,000). Again, however, it closed well off its intraday high (64.05), indicating that it will pull back before rising again. We are using care with stops to protect positions, and are prepared for the stock to have to come back and test the 50 day. Still showing great money flow, relative strength and buying.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: After holding the 10 day on a pullback, a strong move back over 62 with increased volume. Stop: 57.66.
POSITION: Stock only.

CHBS (Christopher & Banks--$28.05; +1.53; optionable): No announcement this week.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chbs.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 stock split on 1-17-01 at a price of $34. Before that CHBS also had 3:2 splits in July of 2000 at $35 and in December 1999 at $26.
STATUS: Tanked through its 200 day MVA (28.67) last week after a lengthy drop, and after hovering over the 25 level it made a move back up today, but still closed short of that resistance. Volume was up at 750,800 (average 563,700), but we are not expecting much from this move. In fact, we will continue to watch for the failure of this run and a drop back on continued strong volume. There is support here in the 25 range from this week's and February-April lows.
BUY POINT: After a failure of this move at the 200 day, strong selling back, watching the 24-25 range for the next level of support.
POSITION: August $35 puts to buy (URH TG).

IGT (International Game Technology--$58.13; +2.31; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research, it does not appear that IGT has ever announced a split. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-5-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: IGT has made a hard retreat, crashing through its 50 day MVA (59.83) last week. It took a relief bounce today, moving on the same strong volume we have seen on the selling (1.36 million; average 806,600). We will see if the stock tries to test its 50 day, but continue to look for a failure of that move and strong selling back down. The recent low is 55.10, with possible support from the May lows in the 53-54 range, and targeting the 50-52 range (200 day MVA at 49.60).
BUY POINT: After a failed move up toward 60, selling back through 58 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: August $65 puts to buy (IGT TM).

KRB (MBNA Corp--$33.91; +1.09; optionable): No announcement but a good move with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/krb.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 7-14-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $40. KRB is a holding company and does not hold annual shareholder meetings.
STATUS: Has taken a strong fall the past month from the 38 range, going the opposite direction of most banks. It has been trending down under its 18 day MVA (33.63), but today, off of strong earnings news, it managed to finally move back over that level (and its short-term down trendlines) with a gap on strong volume (4.68 million; average 2.3 million). A strong move, but there is still quite a bit to overcome (it tapped its 50 day MVA at its high of 34.40, and the 200 day is at 35.26). For positions to the upside we will need a sustained move.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move back over the 200 day MVA with continued strong volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $30 calls to buy (KRB IF).

MIKE (Michaels Stores--$38.72; +1.22; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mike.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that MIKE has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-13-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Has become a bit volatile in the handle (to a cup pattern), which is not what we like to see. It is now on the verge of losing the pattern altogether, struggling to hold the 50 day MVA (37.53), managing to again close over it after gapping down to 36 to open. Volume was heavy on the recovery, however (540,400; average 208,400), so we will continue to look for a move back up in the handle (high 42.06).
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 40 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $35 calls to buy (IKQ IG).

MMM (Minnesota Mining--$113.53; +1.79):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mmm.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 3-15-94 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $102. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-8-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized.
STATUS: MMM continues its steady downtrend, although it made a bit of a bounce today. It is still struggling below its 10 day MVA (114.39), with a confluence of other MVA's just above that (50 day at 116.49). We will see if it can make a stronger recovery; meanwhile, it is too tight for a put play. Nothing for Friday.

PDII (Professional Detailing--$77.52; -2.69; optionable): Business Services. No announcement 7-11-01 with its annual shareholder meeting.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdii.html
BACKGROUND: PDII has never split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for 7-11-01 at 10:30 am ET at which time additional shares will be authorized.
STATUS: We were looking for a bounce going into the forecast Wednesday, but the stock did not cooperate, instead giving up the 50 day MVA (82.28, right with its 200 day). After gapping up to test that level today, it turned back south again, closing lower today. Volume has not been catastrophic, however, coming in at 145,000 today (average 176,700). The recent (June) low is at 72.76, and we could get a put play out of this if it tries to test resistance again and falls on bigger volume. The initial target is that recent low.
BUY POINT: After a failed test of the 50 day, a strong move back down through 79 on above average volume.
POSITION: August $90 puts to buy (PKU TR).

POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:

BAX (Baxter International--$48.12; +0.26; optionable): Health Services. Split 2:1 effective 5-30-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bax.html
STATUS: BAX is trying to hang in their after being taken down on a downgrade. The stock crashed through the 50 day MVA (49.13) and then failed a test of that level, but is holding the range of the highs in its March-May saucer pattern. We will continue to watch for downside weakness, looking for a bounce back toward the 50 day, and then heavy selling on a failure of that move. Targeting the 200 day MVA (44.71), in the range of its saucer lows, as an exit point.
PLAY: After a failed move up on lower volume (up to 2.86 million today; average 1.78 million), strong selling back through 48, with August $52.50 puts to buy (BAX TX).

DGX (Quest Diagnostics--$70.45; +1.10; optionable): Health services. Split 2:1 June 1.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgx.html
STATUS: The stock has peeled back through its up trendline (connecting March-May closing lows, currently at 75), and is hanging on in the rang of its late June consolidation and 18 day MVA (69.90). After the rather gentle pullback of the last couple of weeks, the stock looked ready to take off again after Wednesday it showed a high volume doji with a long 'tail' that tested the 50 day MVA (65.06). It could not make a move today, moving up slightly to show another doji on lighter volume (531,300 (average 449,600). It has been very strong, and could have some more in it. The recent high was 75.75.
PLAY: Aggressive: A move over 71.50 on increased volume, with stock and/or August $65 calls to buy (DGX HM). Stop: 66.50.

ESRX (Express Scripts--$53.65; +2.47; optionable): Split 2:1 June 25.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
STATUS: Today, and just as we saw with its competitor ADVP, ESRX enjoyed a nice move up on strong volume (916,500, average 620,000). The stock is moving in a handle of large cup pattern (dating back to the beginning of 2001), and after its recent split it tested its 50 day MVA (50.03). We will see if the move continues, with the handle high at 58 (an intraday spike), but we are looking at a break over the prior intraday high of 55.82 for a breakout. Relative strength and money flow are strong and rising.
PLAY: 55.95 on continued strong volume, with stock and/or August or November $50 calls to buy (XTQ HJ or XTQ KJ).

FIC (Fair Isaac--$66.26; +1.51; optionable): Business services. Split 3:2 effective June 5.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fic.html
STATUS: FIC has been an amazing performer. After breaking out yet again last Thursday, hitting a new high at 65, the stock has pulled laterally with decreasing volume. Today we saw another strong move up, taking out its recent high on very strong volume (284,000, average 105,300). The stock is still too extended for us to chase, but we will carefully monitor existing positions and keep stops in place, moving them up as necessary. Still shows strong money flow and buying, with relative strength breaking out.
PLAY: Aggressive: A move up after a test back toward its short-term MVAs (10 day at 62.70).
POSITIONS: Aggressive: Stock and/or October $60 calls to buy (FIC JL - under 100 open interests).

JNJ (Johnson & Johnson--$52.84; -0.65; optionable): Drugs. Split 2:1 June 12.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnj.html
STATUS: Has made a strong bounce this week off of its 50 day MVA (50.48), taking out its 10 day MVA (52.04) and up trendline (connecting March and May closing lows, 52.60). After gapping over that trendline Wednesday, JNJ pulled back today but held that support to close, moving on slightly lower, but still strong volume of 11.8 million (average 5.3 million). We are looking to see if the stock will continue with this momentum, moving up along this trendline and past the June high.
PLAY: Breakout: Over 54.20 on continued strong volume, with stock and/or October $50 calls to buy (JNJ JJ). Stop: 49.97.

WFMI (Whole Foods--$27.45; +0.04; optionable): Grocery Stores. Split 2:1 June 5.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
STATUS: WFMI has been moving in a long handle to a cup pattern, and has failed several recent attempts to break through 28.40 (handle high 29.40). Earlier this week the stock closed down below the 18 day MVA (27.50) on sharply increased volume (789,800, average is 446,800), and has yet to push back through, today closing just below it on below average volume (341,500). It is still well within in its handle range, and appears to have support at its 50 day MVA (26.80), and just below that at the bottom of the handle range (26). As it has done in the past, the stock may tap either support before moving back up in another breakout attempt.
PLAY: Aggressive: Over 28.50 on above average volume. Stop: 26.50. Breakout: 29.55 on minimum volume of 720,000, with stock and/or August $27.50 calls to buy (FMQ HY). Stop: 27.50.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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