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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 2 of 2
Subscriber Question (continued)
The hard irony of these busts in jobs is that it is the lack of jobs that drives the creation of new small businesses that end up generating the majority of the jobs that employ the majority of the nation's workers. The household employment survey shows that people are starting up their own companies because they are saying that yes they are working. Similar to the oil industry, the tech industry is adjusting to life after the boom and bust; it will never be the same and the utilization of overseas workers is part of the change in how that industry survives and thrives.
Thus you are right that we don't look for those jobs to come back. That does not mean there will not be jobs created by the world's largest economy, jobs that citizens will work.
THE PLAYS:
Good movers Friday: AVGN; MEDT; OTE; SMTS; SVVS; SYMM; BCR
Thursday night play results:
BKHM: Gapped higher on volume but was backpedaling after a quick run. Looks good. Will let it start back up and then move in.
CALM: Still in a nice test of the 10 day MVA.
NEWP: Gapped higher on volume but sold back to 10 day MVA. Still solid.
WWCA: It is on the brink of the move we are looking for.
New Plays:
Downside:
Play Date: 01/31/2004
XRAY (Dentsply--$42.01; -1.77; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
STATUS: Put. XRAY has formed a broad top that started in July, peaked in October, and continued up through Friday. That is when it sold through the 200 day MVA (42.34) on huge volume. It reported solid earnings Tuesday, but after trying to bounce it failed big time. It may try to rebound up to the 200 day, but we are willing to move in on a further decline. Such a broad 7 month top is the opposite of a base, and it can lead to long term downtrends. That is why we are willing to start positions on a further move down and add more as opportunity arises.
Volume: 2.727M Avg Volume: 389.5K
BUY POINT: $41.88 Volume=550K Target=$38.38 Stop=$42.45
POSITION: XEQ PI - Apr. $45p (-79 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xray.html
Upside:
Play Date: 01/31/2004
ABTL (Autobytel--$12.57; +0.61; optionable): Automotive marketing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abtl.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume has been surging the past week as ABTL fought off the market selling and is starting the breakout from its 15 week base. Tuesday it started the move ahead of earnings, fell back, and then was surging Friday on a solid report. Accumulation in the base is solid at 4 to 2 (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume), showing there was accumulation in the stock even as it worked through its base. Money flow is surging and relative strength is ready to breakout on the definitive price move. That will tell us it is performing better than the rest of the market. Very solid pattern and we are looking to get in on a further upside move.
Volume: 1.989M Avg Volume: 463.59K
BUY POINT: $12.81 Volume=775K Target=$15.42 Stop=$11.91
POSITION: BCU EV - May $12.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/abtl.html
Play Date: 01/31/2004
JNPR (Juniper Networks--$28.83; +0.66; optionable): Networking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnpr.html
STATUS: Testing breakout. We were shaken out of our remaining positions in JNPR last week when it dipped below the 18 day MVA, a pretty amateurish move given the stock's strength. Still, it made us some very good money. It held the breakout, however, and is closing over the 10 day MVA (27.85) as it moves laterally on mostly lower volume. JNPR had such a strong earnings report it looks as if it could once again be a powerhouse in the market, something that is hard to do after a bust. That is why we are looking for it again on the next move higher that shows good volume.
Volume: 11.751M Avg Volume: 10.456M
BUY POINT: $29.48 Volume=15M Target=$35.45 Stop=$27.48
POSITION: JUX GF - July $30c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jnpr.html
Play Date: 01/31/2004
TFSM (24/7 Real Media--$1.95; +0.06; no options): Internet marketing services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tfsm.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. When the market sold last week volume jumped. When TFSM fell back after a strong surge Monday, volume dropped significantly, falling lower each session. The stock made a breakout move Monday from its 6.5 month base, but the market selling caught it. It eased back on that lower trade, however, to test the 18 day MVA (1.87), a key support point on these pullbacks when a stock rallies up to complete its pattern. Accumulation in the base is an outstanding at 11 to 2 and money flow is surging higher even as the stock pulls back to form this second handle. Lots of positives, including the formation of the base mostly on the 50 day MVA (1.68). Looking for it to hold the 18 day and then make the next breakout move on strong volume. Earnings in mid-February.
Volume: 1.629M Avg Volume: 2.901M
BUY POINT: $2.11 Volume=4.4M Target=$2.75 Stop=$1.94
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tfsm.html
Play Date: 01/31/2004
TPTH (Tripath Imaging--$10.45; +0.75; no options): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tpth.html
STATUS: Breakout. TPTH is exploding out of a short 12 week reverse head and shoulders base, running higher Friday on a very high volume spike. Accumulation in the base is positive at 4 to 3 and money flow continues to surge, leading the stock price higher. Relative strength is making the breakout as well, indicating that the stock is performing better than the rest of the market. Ready to move in on a further run higher. Earnings out February 5.
Volume: 908.22K Avg Volume: 197.818K
BUY POINT: $10.55 Volume=300K Target=$12.66 Stop=$9.96
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tpth.html
CONTINUING PLAY LIST
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://investmenthouse.com/ihalerts/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: A Wedge=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; DWedge=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ABGX 01/21 Cup hdl 15.57 -0.01 16.08 19.28 1.1M 1.8M 14.95
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back on lower volume. Beginning to make a lateral move just above the 10 day MVA.
AIRN 12/04 Test BO 4.04 +0.05 3.22 4.18 307K 537K 3.78
Current. Tapped 3.81 at the intraday low and rallied showing a doji just above the 18 day MVA on low volume. Needs to hold here and rebound.
ALTI 01/02 Test BO 3.86 -0.07 3.02 3.78 1.2M 2.3M 3.68
Current. Pull back holding just below the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Still in good shape.
ALTI 12/01 Dbl btm 3.86 -0.07 2.05 2.74 1.2M 1.2M 3.68
Current.
AMXC 12/29 A Wedge 9.43 -0.29 7.98 9.98 29K 134K 9.28
Current. Pull back holding below the 18 day MVA on very low volume. Testing the break out.
ANPI 01/22 Dbl btm 26.29 +0.01 26.06 29.89 674K 528K 24.58
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move.
AOT 11/24 Flat 27.16 +0.08 23.37 27.95 987K 405K 26.92
Current. Continue with uptrend on above average volume.
ARXX 01/05 Flat 14.72 +0.17 13.26 15.94 616K 700K 14.44
Current. Moving up on much lower volume. May test back further to support at 14.09.
ATYT 01/06 Flat 16.32 -0.04 16.92 20.21 2.7M 3.9M 15.88
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move on average volume. Testing the break out.
AVGN 01/27 Cup 7.93 +0.66 7.56 9.44 233K 150K 6.99
Current. Entered the play as stock makes an explosive move on excellent volume surge.
BCR 12/17 Rv H&S 94.2 +1.2 80.93 92.95 1.1M 500K 89.38
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on strong volume.
BKHM 01/29 Test BO 3.23 +0.19 3.28 4.12 10M 2.7M 3.05
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open and went up to tap 3.43 at the high, but gave some of it back showing a doji on very strong volume.
BRNC 01/17 A Wedge 2.95 0 3.24 4.21 1.2K 112K 2.97
Buy Not Issued. Beginning to make a lateral move under the 18 day MVA on low volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
CALM 01/29 Cup hdl 34.44 +0.28 35.65 42.75 312K 650K 33.15
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied on lower volume. Moving up on low volume after testing the break out.
CANI 01/20 Flat 14.98 +0.47 15.98 19 236K 477K 14.86
Current. Moving up to tap 15.54 at the high, but gave some of it back holding between the 10 and 18 day MVA. Moving up after testing the break out.
CBST 01/26 Test BO 13.9 0 14.68 18.58 1.2M 725K 13.65
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 14.50 at the intraday high, but gave it back showing a doji on much stronger volume surge. Making a lateral move just under the 18 day MVA. The doji may indicate a change in the pattern.
CCUR 01/24 Cup hdl 4.85 -0.51 5.83 7 2.9M 1.3M 5.42
Buy Not Issued. Gapped way down showing a doji on stronger volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
CHT 01/22 Cup hdl 16 +0.15 15.75 18.92 253K 1.1M 15.55
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on low volume.
CHU 01/02 Test 50 11.6 -0.4 10.02 12.25 729K 880K 11.48
Current. Gapped down showing a doji on average volume. Held above support.
CORI 01/23 Rv H&S 7.56 -0.1 7.75 9.39 346K 1.2M 7.05
Current. Pull back showing a doji on very low volume. Testing the break out.
CORI 01/13 DB hdl 7.56 -0.1 6.8 8.12 346K 1.2M 7.05
Current.
CRA 01/24 Test BO 15.22 -0.33 16 18.95 570K 650K 15.28
Exited. This was exited on 1-28-04 but was not keyed into the
table to show the sale.
CTE 01/17 Cup hdl 6.76 +0.14 6.3 7.64 81K 198K 6.24
Current. Tapped 6.32 at the low and rallied on low volume. Moving up on lower volume after testing the break out.
CYTO 01/12 DB hdl 13.51 -0.09 15.07 17.88 95K 200K 13.84
Current. Dropped hard but managed to hold some support at 13
and rebound. It needs to get back over 14 early this
week or we will close it.
DNA 01/03 Test BO 95.5 -0.66 95.44 102 1.7M 3M 93.88
Current. Pull back on much lower volume. Testing the break out.
DUSA 01/26 DB hdl 7.99 +0.18 7.36 8.95 77K 150K 7.18
Current. Tapped 7.50 at the intraday low and rallied on low volume. Managed to retain most of Tuesday's great move. In good shape.
DVA 01/21 A Wedge 40.12 +0.18 40.12 46 189K 504K 39.08
Current. Managed to break through resistance at 40 on lower volume. Moving up the 10 day MVA.
ENTU 01/28 Cup hdl 4.97 -0.03 5.32 6.65 272K 400K 4.95
Buy Not Hit. Pull back tapping 4.65 at the low and rallied as the stock tests the break out.
EONC 01/08 Test 18 3.92 -0.03 4.12 5.18 182K 240K 3.93
Current. Making a lateral move under the 18 day MVA on average volume. Holding above support.
FMTI 01/17 Cup hdl 3.78 +0.04 3.48 4.35 226K 228K 3.38
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA on lower volume.
GEMS 01/27 Test BO 3.72 +0.13 4.04 5.25 437K 1.4M 3.92
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied on below average volume. Moving up after testing the break out.
IMOS 12/26 A Wedge 13.05 +0.11 8.75 10.68 403K 552K 12.72
Current. Tapped 12.60 at the low and rallied showing a doji on low volume. Holding above support.
IONA 12/20 Test BO 7.25 -0.14 5.96 7.58 294K 600K 6.68
Current. Pull back on low volume as stock tries to make a lateral move on low volume.
IRM 01/17 Test BO 41.63 +0.68 42.22 50.72 165K 492K 41.25
Buy Not Hit. Moved up off the 18 day MVA on low volume. Moving up on lower volume after testing the break out.
IVIL 12/23 Flat 4.52 +0.2 3.59 4.52 236K 340K 4.12
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied for a nice move on low volume. Moving up after testing the break out.
MAXM 12/01 Rv H&S 9.48 -0.09 8.09 9.88 92K 227K 9.22
Current. Pull back holding above the 18 day MVA on low volume. Testing the break out.
MEDT 01/21 Cup hdl 5.75 +0.3 6.06 7.48 447K 200K 5.48
Current. Tested the 50 day MVA and made a fierce rally for a nice gain on strong volume surge.
MKTY 01/17 Test BO 7.05 0 6.98 8.42 116K 175K 6.71
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move on average volume.
MMSI 12/29 Test 50 21.98 -0.72 22.11 26.55 344K 260K 23.18
Exited. Issued a trailing stop as stock continued to move down below the 50 day MVA on lower, but still above average volume.
NANX 01/27 Test BO 12.96 +0.08 14.28 17.06 247K 1M 12.67
Current. Continue to make a lateral move showing a doji just above the 10 day MVA on very low volume.
NEWP 01/29 Test BO 20.07 +0.35 21.55 25.88 1.2M 561K 20.04
Buy Not Hit. Gapped up at the open, but gave most of it back on strong volume surge. Moving up after testing the break out.
NOVA 01/03 Test 18 4.91 +0.44 3.77 4.89 83K 105K 4.48
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied for a nice gain on lower volume. Moving up after testing the break out.
NOVL 11/22 Test BO 12.68 +0.46 8.88 10.68 6.8M 10M 11.78
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on average volume.
NUFO 01/05 Dbl btm 5.97 +0.17 5.72 6.94 507K 596K 5.77
Current. Gapped up at the open and continued to rally tapping 6.20 at the intraday high, but gave some of it back. Moving up on higher volume after testing the break out.
OCLR 12/22 Flat 30.56 -0.30 29.51 35 40K 135K 30.32
Current. Making a lateral move on low volume.
OHI 12/08 Flat 10.39 0 8.71 10.48 120K 200K 10.02
Current. continue to pull back tapping the 18 day MVA and rallied on low volume. Testing the break out.
ONNN 12/16 Test BO 7 -0.27 7.42 8.88 1.2M 3.4M 7.54
Current. Held the early December high at 7 so decided to see
if it would bounce. If not we will close it out.
OTE 12/20 Cup hdl 7.65 +0.24 6.52 8.15 405K 135K 7.54
Bounced off the 18 day MVA and rallied with excellent volume surge. Moving up after testing the break out.
OTEX 01/05 Flat 25.48 +0.15 21.33 25.48 375K 650K 24.32
Current. More volatile showing a doji on the 10 day MVA. Making a lateral move on low volume.
PEGA 01/07 Cup hdl 10.41 -0.34 9.88 11.82 70K 146K 10.32
Current. Gapped down at the open showing a doji just above the 18 day MVA on low volume. Tapped 10.85 at the high, but gave most of it back. Testing the break out.
PPHM 01/21 Cup hdl 2.43 -0.21 3.01 3.98 1.3M 2.3M 2.77
Exited. Exited as the stock tanked below the 50 day MVA on above average volume.
PROX 01/24 Cup hdl 2.38 +0.01 2.84 3.77 1.8M 3.5M 2.64
Current. Beginning to make a lateral move after testing the break out.
QTWW 01/26 Cup 8.99 -0.08 10.36 12.55 161K 506K 9.63
Buy Not Hit. Continue to pull back holding above the 18 day MVA on low volume. Held above support, but needs to hold here and rebound or will look to drop.
RWY 11/04 Cup hdl 8.9 +0.19 6.24 7.85 50K 146K 8.48
Current. Gapped down to open on the 18 day MVA and rallied on lower volume. Still in good shape.
SEAC 01/24 Test BO 20.18 -0.13 19.77 23.58 371K 600K 19.22
Current. Continue to pull back testing the break out on very low volume.
SINA 01/07 DB hdl 45.69 +1.91 43.62 52 4.9M 12M 44.88
Current. Bounced off the 18 day MVA and rallied for a nice move on below average volume. Moving up after testing the break out.
SMTS 01/28 DB hdl 9.6 +0.74 9.51 11.48 325K 117K 8.78
Current. Entered the play as the stock makes an explosive move on very strong volume surge.
SNUS 01/13 Test BO 7.5 +0.05 7.69 9.22 50K 175K 7.15
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied showing a doji on very low volume. Testing the break out.
SVVS 01/14 BO 3.33 +0.33 2.2 2.82 1M 393K 2.99
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA for a nice move on slightly above average volume. Moving up on lower volume after testing the break out.
SYMM 01/08 Cup 10.09 +0.47 8.28 10 849K 346K 9.58
Current. Moving up on strong volume surge after testing the break out. Pulled off from it high of 10.52.
TQNT 01/10 Cup 8.57 +0.2 9.38 11.06 2.4M 3.6M 8.72
Current. Moving up on average volume. after testing the break out.
TSCO 06/03 Rv H&S 42.35 +0.59 23.42 27.62 288K 603K 39.88
Current. Moving up on lower volume after testing the breakout.
TSCO 04/24 Cup hdl 42.35 +0.59 21.88 26 288K 603K 39.88
Current.
TTMI 01/05 Rv H&S 17.5 -0.64 18.75 22.72 655K 725K 18.65
Current. Continue to pull back on low volume holding above support at 17.24. Needs to rebound from here.
TUTR 01/08 A Wedge 11.77 +0.47 12.57 15.12 32K 284K 11.84
Current. Moving up on lower volume after testing the break out. Needs to continue to rebound.
TUTS 12/29 Test 18 7.26 +0.36 7.19 8.94 90K 175K 6.98
Current. Gapped down at the open and rallied for a nice move on lower volume. Still in good shape.
VAR 10/28 Cup hdl 82.94 +0.88 64.5 74.25 916K 1.1M 78.62
Current. Continue with uptrend pattern on above average volume.
WMS 11/21 Dbl btm 29.05 +0.05 25.83 31.22 216K 650K 27.72
Current. continue to move up the 10 day MVA on below average volume.
WWCA 01/29 Test BO 22.66 0 22.62 27.15 1.5M 2M 21.68
Buy Not Issued. Started the move, and if volume continues Monday we
will move in.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AFCO 01/28 Put 34 +014 33.06 30.38 94K 305K 35.25
Current. Relief bounce on very low volume. tapped 34.71 (10 day MVA) at the high and gave some of it back.
CELG 01/28 Put 40.47 -0.57 40.62 38.24 970K 225K 42.22
Current. Continue to move down the 10 day MVA on low volume.
NSM 01/27 Put 38.47 +1.56 37.42 33 5.5M 4M 38.62
Buy Not Issued. Changed the entry point as it rallied to the 18 day
MVA. If it rolls over here on continued solid volume
it is a downside entry.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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